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Straight fight between Jonathan and Ribadu in S/West[/size]
Wednesday, April 13, 2011


BY LEKE ADESERI, Regional Editor, S/west

THE battle for the about 15 million votes from the South-West is a straight fight between the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, and the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.




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The two parties during the campaigns adopted strategies they believed would better their lot in the region.

The South-West zone, according to a political analyst, is expected to be one of the deciding battlefields in next Saturday's polls.

This is because: despite its loss of senatorial and House of Representatives seats to the rival ACN in five states of Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Osun and Ekiti, the PDP still remains a formidable political party in the region.

Lagos, with its six million registered voters, is however a major determinant, which explains why President Jonathan, of recent doubled his visit to Lagos. He has been courting all categories of eligible voters.

The candidate who gets majority of Lagos votes will eventually triumph in the South_West, and it seems to be in favour of the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan and possibly the ACN candidate, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu.

The ACN can rightly lay claim to the state and may also deliver it for its candidate, especially if its leadership does not agree to play ball with the presidency.

But the issue in this zone is that even if PDP fails to achieve substantial success in the state, it must, as a matter of necessity, win other states in the zone to have an edge over its main challengers.

The ruling PDP is facing internal crisis in some states, especially Ogun and Oyo states, and this, among other issues according to some political pundits would give opposition parties the opportunity to engage the PDP from the states during the coming general elections.

However, the chairman, House Committee on Information, Security and Strategy in the Oyo State House of Assembly, Olatunde Jinadu, recently told journalists that in spite of the crisis that rocks PDP in the state, no other party can withstand the ruling PDP in the upcoming elections.

Jinadu said: "I am not speaking for any other state, but I'm sure that here in Oyo State, the PDP will have a landslide victory. The outstanding performance of Governor Adebayo Alao_Akala since assuming the mantle of leadership in the state will make victory certain for our party," he said.

However, going by the results of the National Assembly elections, Jinadu can be said to have seriously miscalculated and President Jonathan seems not to be deceived which has propelled him to double his efforts behind the scene.


http://odili.net/news/source/2011/apr/13/312.html

With Ribadu's near miss, ACN has lost a substantial amount of votes. A lot of people no longer take ACN serious in this presidential election. GEJ has automatically gained more ground in the SW. My initial projection was about 50% now I have moved it up to 70%. It's game over till 2015.

Who cares about the South-West when even the North looks like they support PDP?

not true . with ACN seats gaining in the SW, the ACN train pulled in more votes. from buhari and GEJ. goodluck has support in the SW but def not more than buhari or ribadu. id say about the same

most SW voters are not really concerned with this election its clear SW voters dont take this election seriously if they did they would have mobolised as a voting block. but they didnt!

If GEJ wins there will be no sad faces in the SW cause all are split on candidates. i kno ribadu supports gej supporters and buhar supporters but none of them appear that passionate about either candidate.

GEJ will win 2011, i dont doubt that.

The inability of ACN/CPC having a consensus has given GEJ an automatic win, though the alliance wouldnt have made much difference. My hunch is that TINUBU may have secretly cut a deal with GEJ not to accept BUHARIs offer in order not to upset 2015 permutations!

aloy/emeka:

Jinadu said: "I am not speaking for any other state, but I'm sure that here in Oyo State, the PDP will have a landslide victory. The outstanding performance of Governor Adebayo Alao_Akala since assuming the mantle of leadership in the state will make victory certain for our party," he said.

^^^ i think that pdp will rig oyo or ogun states in the next one.

obj wont let pdp die that easily theyre not fooling anyone.

If anything i guarantee that their will be violence in the guber/pres election in the SW.

Nothing changed those states ACN won were already occupied by ACN govs

bankole,omisore,iyabo knew they were the lambs. prolly gon be ministers or ambassador anyway

Saraki cant be done away with yet cause without Saraki, Kwara state is going to Buhari.

sbeezy8:

If anything i guarantee that their will be violence in the guber/pres election in the SW.

Nothing changed those states ACN won were already occupied by ACN govs

bankole,omisore,iyabo knew they were the lambs. prolly gon be ministers or ambassador anyway

Saraki cant be done away with yet cause without Saraki, Kwara state is going to Buhari.

Gbam

Violence in the SW due to politics?

People act as if that is new. Throughout Nigeria's history, the SW has always seen political violence.

sbeezy8:

If anything i guarantee that their will be violence in the guber/pres election in the SW.

Nothing changed those states ACN won were already occupied by ACN govs

bankole,omisore,iyabo knew they were the lambs. prolly gon be ministers or ambassador anyway

Saraki cant be done away with yet cause without Saraki, Kwara state is going to Buhari.

See evil people guaranteeing violence in the SW.  Meaning they will do anything to ensure there is violence there. You will be shamed. Your plans will not work. The SW will be peaceful and they will unite behind GEJ. God punish all the [b]B[/b]ad [b]B[/b]elle people looking for violence.