Penguin2:


Exactly my point.

We don’t mind voting A northerner with someone from Southsouth as vp as long as they would ensure that Ndigbo will no longer be an endangered specie in Nigeria.

But zombies think we don’t see through their scheming.

with what is happening in southeast now any political party banking on southeast to win election is joking because ipob have successfully discourage Igbos from voting

Penguin2:
As the 2023 electioneering campaigns and party politics take top gear, PDP seems to have successfully boxed APC to a corner.

Before the PDP national convention, one of the headaches the party had was how to zone party positions.

Most observers and bookmakers thought the party chairmanship was going to go south which would have obviously indicated that the PDP presidential ticket would go north.

If that had happened, a lot of Campaign of calumny would have gone towards the PDP for being anti-South for plotting to hand the North another tenure after Buhari. PDP would have shown all its cards too early and opposition parties, especially APC, would have used those cards against them.

But PDP pulled a masterstroke by zoning the party chairmanship position to the north and throwing the presidential ticket open.

Just recently, it was confirmed that the PDP Governors, who seem to be the new sheriffs of the party, have voted to throw the presidential ticket of the party open; which further cements that decision.

Now the implications of this are simple and obvious.

It’s open secret that Iyorchia Ayu, the incoming Chairman, has agreed to step down should a northerner get the ticket of the party. But nothing is cast in stone. A southerner might as well become the party presidential flagbrearer.

Now the APC is in a quagmire. If it throws its ticket open like the PDP, the Southwest, which is its only ally in the south, would feel shortchanged and it will adversely affect the party fortunes in the entire south.

If zones its ticket to Southwest, which duly deserves the party ticket in the south due to their investments and loyalty, then PDP will automatically throw its weight behind a northerner who would be paired with either someone from Southsouth or Southeast (Ndigbo won’t really mind as long as APC won’t be in power again). Now, with northern votes and the bloc vote from SS and SE, I don’t see how an APC candidate from the Southwest would stand a chance.

Before you doubt these projections, remember that the entire Southsouth is under the control of PDP except for the audio defection of Ben Ayade of Cross River state which genuine political watchers can testify that it carries no effect. The situation in the Southeast as regards APC is too obvious to be discussed.

Now what next for APC?

From the above reality, the only way for APC is to go Southsouth or Southeast. But this has to be done with the buy in of the Southwest stalwarts of the party.

APC needs to convince Tinubu to allow the presidential ticket of the party to be zoned to Southsouth or Southeast. If Tinubu agrees to such deal, then APC will be assured of Southwest support. Now, Tinubu, Osinbajo, Fayemi, etc, might have to give up their presidential ambitions but that is the only way their party would be guaranteed continued stay in power which would allow Tinubu to maintain his invincibility and National Leadership tag.

Now with the APC presidential candidate coming from either SS/SE, the party can be assured of the whole votes of the entire south, especially if PDP zones it’s ticket to the north, add that to the Buhari effect in the north and the popularity of whoever would be the Vice Presidential candidate from the north and you are sure to garner considerable votes from the north and the election might just be a walkover for APC.

Anything aside this, then APC can kiss power goodbye in 2023.

Lalasticlala
Mynd44
Fergie001
Fahdiga
Sapientia
Garfield
Helinues

U guys talk politics like it's 2+2.
No wonder una dey always loose.
North has 15 APC Governor's where 10 has a stake with mich all to loose if PDP wins.

Beside which one is APC shy go to SE again

U talk as if BAT has once begged SE for vote before.. even Governorship election too BAT has only campaigned for chess Ngige many years ago. I can't remember last time he stepped foot in SE, let SS be doing nthe talking of voting, not SE.

Even OYo of PDP will avoid Makinde mantra this time, we are talking of Osinbanjo here ure talking sharing with Atiku. U well so??

Pdp only has little hands in 2019 Cox people were realistically fed up with PMB. Now Osinbanjo is coming on board ure talking PDP having one stake? U well so? APC won 15 out of 18 LGA in the last Guber election in Ondo with wide Margin so ushould know it's about the candidate wen it comes to Ondo.,buttered with good political structure controlled by Aketi himself. Downgrade Aketi at ur own peril in Ondo Politics. Ask the deputy governor and mimiko past governor whom Aketi both sent to political Oblivion.

Leverage2021:
It's common sense really

Pdp would field atiku, atiku has the money for election and he has northern support.

The entire southern pdp understands they don't have a candidate to go south vs south with apc (and this is simply because pdp politicians don't do eye service slavery to the north like tinubu Southwest apc does)

So I see no reason some deluded persons keep saying to igbos go to pdp and harvest, the south is ok with atiku (he is liberal, which is most important)

I believe apc would be massively pressured at last to go to zone to south west

Buhari and Bumi would not go with tinubu, they may ask him to support osinbajo or they find a neural Yoruba person.

But if tinubu forces his way on them, I see buhari and his group supporting atiku

Don't forget it's one north, shifting power block and realliging

I just dey laff una...

mrvitalis:
Finally someone with sense I have said it before 2023 is PDP to lose just like 2019 if they like let them flop again

APC is confused on what next to do honestly

The confusion is in your mind.

SonofDevil:
delusional nyamiri

If pdp field tambuwal who has been secretly chosen by the govs and kwankaso as vp they will be thoroughly trashed.

APC controls 4 regions
South west
North west
North east
North central

But delusional ipob yoot think pdp can win 2023 with SS and SE

Lol...these guys are just funny. If PDP field Tambuwal they've lost before the election. He'll be thrashed.

SonofDevil:

Delusional nyamiri 2015 political scenario is nothing compared to 2023.
There was clamour for power to return to North in 2015.
The northern pdp caucus already collapsed their structure into apc while others stayed back to work against the party

In 2023 there is clamour for power to return to South which the ruling party have aligned to.

PDP swim against the tide in 2015 there were drowned
PDP will swim against the tide in 2023 they will be eventually buried.

This people nor dey see road. Just as it was in 2015 for power to return to north because of the death of yaradua,so it is now with 2023 the clamour for power to return to south is deafening.

Penguin2:


You must have mistaken my article to mean me begging APC to zone its ticket to Southeast. Far from that dear brother.

I was just laying bare the reality that APC finds itself in right now.

Nothing is cast in stone, but you can’t be too hopeful that a Tinubu or an Osinbajo would garner more votes in the north than an Atiku or a Tambuwal.

And there’s no way the votes of the entire Southwest would come close to the votes of Southsouth and Southeast combined.

We have not put into consideration the fact that states like Oyo that has PDP governor might split its votes.

Add the fact that almost half of Lagos voters are Igbos.

Plus that Ondo has always tilted towards PDP.

Now where will the Southwest candidate get the numbers?

Don’t be emotional, try to be practical, pragmatic and realistic.

Political parties determinine 75% of the success or failures in a presidential election.

It is funny that you posited that the PDP may get substantial votes in Oyo State because it is in power in that State but conversely declared that APC will not get more votes in States where it is in power.


The only grace that can make the PDP win is if they present a candidate that is very different from the present class of aspirants and there is a division within the APC.

Penguin2:


On what structure did Olusegun Mimiko depend on to win Ondo under Labour Party(LP) in 2007?

On what structure did Governor Abdulrazaq of Kwara depend on to win Kwara in 2019 and defeat the Saraki dynasty; a well known structure?

On what structure did Obaseki depend on to win re-election in Edo when almost every political heavyweight in the state was in APC?

Sometimes you reason like a child. Because you keep forgetting the people factor in all these.

No politician will lead any electorate by the hand on the day of election.

Don't delve into what you know nothing about.
Edo State PDP have been very formidable. They've never lost any national election since 1999. They were only dislodged by oshiomhole in 2008. The people normally vote for oshiomhole's party in state election and vote PDP in national election. Infact, Edo is a natural PDP state,their problem is one man called oshiomhole.

Ogbuefi2020:
Worse case scenerio SE igbos will concecede vp ticket to a SS igbo , yorubas will mock SE but we wont care , akeredulu attempt to use se/ss for tinubu has been destroyed . What SE needs to flourish is a just and fair government

Its not about Akeredolu, each political party has it's areas of strength.
The PDP will win in SE/SS but with different margins compared to 2015 & 2019.

SonofDevil:
north re not clannish with politcs.
While abiola a southerner was beating tofa in North
Clannish igbos voted tofa a northerner ahead of abiola a southerner

You're easily the best political analyst here.

PaChukwudi44:

The presidential candidate chosen will determine the region the parties control.

You are wrong sir.


Check the results of past elections very well. It is difficult for a party that fail in all other elections in a region to suddenly win the presidential election.

lol....

This rubbish don't even make sense..

Corner ko, junction ni.

Ogbuefi2020:

pdp structures is very much intact in the north , apc is just riding on buhari cult like follwership wich will no longer be a factor in 2023

No it is beyond people riding on Bubari cult like followership. The PDP won Governorship elections in Sokoto, Bauchi and Adamawa States despite the Buhari-cult like followership

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Lol, a Kwankwaso or Tambuwal would sweep the North as far Buhari is not on ballot.

Enemy of Buhari!
There is no day you never mention Buharis name in your post.it seems to me you are envy of Buhari..Wether you like it or not Buhari is still the president of Nigeria including your family.
Mr scammer be alerted that ipob are terrorist and Buhari will going to finished them with the language they undastand.

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Thats why I said Buhari is not on ballot and even Buhari goodwill has reduced.People has seen he is even worse

lunatic comment

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Apc would win in your dreams, there is no apc after Buhari

ipob are Mumu terrorist organisation thats why they dont like buhari and they always fail

Indispensable85:


You're easily the best political analyst here.

thanks bro

Indispensable85:


Don't delve into what you know nothing about.
Edo State PDP have been very formidable. They've never lost any national election since 1999. They were only dislodged by oshiomhole in 2008. The people normally vote for oshiomhole's party in state election and vote PDP in national election. Infact, Edo is a natural PDP state,their problem is one man called oshiomhole.

Na true you talk. for someone to say pdp had no structure Edo tire me.

SonofDevil:
pa shukudi that's not how it works.
Political structure is what delivers for party . popularity of candidate is just added bonus.

If yardua and gej didn't inherit a good political structure from obj they wouldn't have beaten Buhari in 2007 and 2011.

Gej lost pdp north caucus politcal structure thats why he lost.

PDP is yet to recover the political structure till date

Lol comedians!! Shebi Dave Umahi will win in the SW should he secure the APC ticket?

Penguin2:


On what structure did Olusegun Mimiko depend on to win Ondo under Labour Party(LP) in 2007?

On what structure did Governor Abdulrazaq of Kwara depend on to win Kwara in 2019 and defeat the Saraki dynasty; a well known structure?

On what structure did Obaseki depend on to win re-election in Edo when almost every political heavyweight in the state was in APC?

Sometimes you reason like a child. Because you keep forgetting the people factor in all these.

No politician will lead any electorate by the hand on the day of election.

You need to interview people who have been agents of political parties at polling units, ward and LGA collation centres to explain to you how elections are won and lost in Nigeria.

seunmsg:


I really don’t get why they can’t see this obvious and straightforward truth. The OP is even fantasizing about PDP giving the VP slot to the SE despite what transpired at the convention where no single Igbo leader was able to influence anything.

Only an unserious political party will put a SE candidate on the ballot either as presidential or vice presidential candidate in 2023. With the help of Ipob, the zone no longer brings anything to the voting table. I really pity my SE folks, they have been reduced into writing illogical political permutation on Nairaland.

I read this comment in my dream some days ago, and I could vividly remember the bold part. Or have you by any chance wrote this before now and you are quoting it?