BlueRayDick:


Most South Easterners were not interested in the elections . If Obi didn’t contest most people in the south east would not have gone to queue to vote for Atiku ( a Fulani man) considering what happened with Buhari , Fulani herdsmen and IPOB .

The South south will always be PDP vs APC. Wike would’ve rigged for Tinubu like he did . And that’s the state where the bulk of the south south votes come from.

The simplistic postulation that Atiku would’ve won automatically if Obi did not contest doesn’t appeal to me one bit. Most of the younger voters would not have voted and it will be normal PDP vs APC which incumbency and superior rigging machinery favors APC

raumdeuter:


I said any govt that fully removes subsidy deserves a 3rd and 4th term. If Tinubu did not, then he does not deserve the 3rd term. 2nd term should be enough for him as he is just like others

"If Tinubu did not"?

So there's a room for "IF"..

I never get time yet. When i do, you will hear from me.

BlueRayDick:


That is my point!

The Northern governors who worked for Tinubu & APC would've still worked for him. The Votes Atiku will be getting in the north will be paltry and not really matter in the general scheme of things. Why? Because there would've been serious voter apathy in the east considering how a northerner had treated Easterners in Buhari's 8 years.

I

BlueRayDick:


That is my point!

The Northern governors who worked for Tinubu & APC would've still worked for him. The Votes Atiku will be getting in the north will be paltry and not really matter in the general scheme of things. Why? Because there would've been serious voter apathy in the east considering how a northerner had treated Easterners in Buhari's 8 years.

I

I said any govt that fully removes subsidy deserves a 3rd and 4th term.

If Tinubu did not, then he does not deserve the 3rd term. 2nd term should be enough for him as he is just like others

raumdeuter:


Do you remember how the North voted? In the NE Atiku won in 5 of 6 NE states
Of 7 NW states Atiku won 4, Tinubu won 2 Kwankwanso won 1

So how is this paltry when in 13 core North states Atiku won 9

If out of 13 Northern Atiku has cleared 9,
In SS out of 6 states Obi won 3, Atiku won 2 Tinubu won 1. So who do you think Edo Delta and Cross River would have gone to without Obi?

In SE all 5 states went to Obi, Without Obi who do you think those states would have gone to?

Now do the Math and lets see out of 36 states

in 36 states Atiku won 12, Now reassign Obi tally in whatever percentage and how many states would Atiku have won?

Segedinho:

You we see 3Ks gave block votes of 8m plus to APC.


They know but just want to argue....


Argue with them at your fault...

BlueRayDick:


Edo and Delta are states with APC firmly rooted there. An APC governor has won election in Edo before, Delta has strong APC presence with people like Omo-Agege. All of these things count and suggest APC had a strong claim to those sates. Cross river and Akwa Ibom have APC governors and senators; Bayelsa and Rivers same.

If the election was between Tinubu (APC) and Atiku(PDP), Atiku would've suffered heavily for the sins of Buhari down South. The Northern governors would still have worked for Tinubu.

The worst that would've happened is no winner will emerge after the first round; but then I don't think neither of them will find it difficult to win 25% votes required at first ballot.

The crux of all of these is that ; it is a fallacy of assumption to just say Atiku would've defeated Tinubu at first ballot without Obi Contesting.

Segedinho:

You we see 3Ks gave block votes of 8m plus to APC.


They know but just want to argue....


Argue with them at your fault...

raumdeuter:


So you think APC will win Delta where the sitting governor is the PDP VP candidate? How did Omo-Agege when he was on the ballot personally in the guber election fare? never mind when its Omo AGege pushing for Tinubu vs Okowa a sitting governor?

Bayelsa have a sitting PDP governor, PDP even won Bayelsa despite Obi being on ballot and you think APC would win?

PDP won Cross Rver despite Obi on ballot

Who will suffer for the sins of Buhari? Atiku in PDP or Tinubu in APC?

When you blame Buhari how many people link his failures to Atiku? Is it not Tinubu people blame for bringing Buhari despite that Atiku was part of 2015 APC who ushered in Buhari

Spy360:

All you have said is correct. Just that you have not factored the rigging aspect of Tinubu electoral victory. Or you think Tinubu won free and fair?

People didn't vote for Tinuhu including those from SW. The states Tinubu didn't win are the ones he didn't rig. That is why it looked like he had a wider spread. For God's sake he lost Lagos (adopted state), Osun (perceived state), Abuja (FCT), Kano, Enugu, Rivers, Plateau and Benue.

Rigging and judicial hijack gave him the presidency.

BlueRayDick:


U are not in Nigeria. Most people in the South and Middle belt are bitter towards Fulani due to the havoc wreak all over the land.

Most people don't want another Fulani man on that seat which may continue to emboldened Fulani herdsmen to behave as though they are Lord over every other person while security look-on uninterested.

U think the middle belt and southerners will vote another Fulani man to replace another Fulani man?

raumdeuter:


How did he rig? When Obi sef went to tribunal he did not allege rigging

If he wanted to rig, where will it be the first place wont it be Lagos and Osun? But his rigging forgot his home states but na for Zamfara and Jigawa he go rig?

Theflint1:
They refuse to factor this in... a lot of South Easterners and South Southerners would rather vote Tinubu than Atiku.

BlueRayDick:


U are not in Nigeria. Most people in the South and Middle belt are bitter towards Fulani due to the havoc wreak all over the land.

Most people don't want another Fulani man on that seat which may continue to emboldened Fulani herdsmen to behave as though they are Lord over every other person while security look-on uninterested.

U think the middle belt and southerners will vote another Fulani man to replace another Fulani man?

Theflint1:
They refuse to factor this in... a lot of South Easterners and South Southerners would rather vote Tinubu than Atiku.

Theflint1:
They refuse to factor this in... a lot of South Easterners and South Southerners would rather vote Tinubu than Atiku.

GrammarNazi1:

This is a lie, at least in the case of Tinubu.

Let's not shy away from telling the truth.

The hate they have for Tinubu can never make a lot of them vote Tinubu.

Spy360:

More likely they would not have voted at all which will mean Tinubu would have easily rigged all/most of the SE and SS states because APC controlled those states.

Spy360:

Did he rig Rivers and Benue?

raumdeuter:

You don't need to be in Nigeria to analyze the result and the numbers coming out

People in Osun voted a Fulani man to replace a Fulani man. In the entire SW, Atiku a fulani man was second to Tinubu in 5 out of 6 states
In the SE, Atiku a Fulani man was second to Obi in 3 out of 5 states

In SS A fulani man won Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom states, while finishing 2nd in Delta

So which of the Southerners are we talking about?

BlueRayDick:


The problem u are having is that u claim to be analyzing numbers and results of an election that would not have produced the same result under totally different situations. U are using the result of an election that had third and fourth force to analyze the probable result of an election that would've involved 2 horse race and sentiments and zoning would've swayed voters' choice.

It seems u already have ur mind made up on what u will accept as the conclusion; so there's no need dragging this further.

raumdeuter:


There are factors that decide elections in every state and it was analyzed properly before election and I told everyone there was no way obi was winning and even offered to stake money on it

The only person I couldnt say for certain was Atiku because of these factors too

If you analyze the numbers and voing pattern without sentiments, you will know these things easily

Theflint1:
They refuse to factor this in... a lot of South Easterners and South Southerners would rather vote Tinubu than Atiku.

raumdeuter:
One of the few good things Obi has done

He even called the 2nd Niger Bridge critical infrastructure, the same bridge someone said has no economic value

The same Obi BTW said the coastal road was not needed but the bridge linking to Onitsha his base is critical infrastructure

Like Sheikh Oasis7 said, we all know what we are doing

BlueRayDick:


If this is done, u will be surprised that most private businesses/companies will start paying their staff ridiculous amounts as salaries .

Also if private companies/businesses are excluded from the new minimum wage, it will have no effect on businesses and the economy at large . Workers will continue to groan under hardship .

BlueRayDick:


U back to discussing Obi when the discussion is actually about Tinubu and Atiku under totally different situations.

U just can't help this obsession. lol

obainojazz:
But is coastal road critical…. I’m even shocked we have that kind money to spend when we could use it to build a nuclear power plant

Construction of that road came out of thin air…. Niger River needed a second passing for 30 years now.