garfield1:


No,he doesnt need to win the north.atiku needs the north more

If he doesn't win the north where will he will....

For sure he won't win the south.....

How can you become president without winning any of the both region

Workch:
1. Southwest
Tinubu: 55%
Peter Obi: 25%
Atiku: 10%
Others: 10%

Tinubu will win because people will vote here for tribal reasons and he has loyalists. However, Obi will be second because a lot of people here also want change and are tired of Tinubu’s godfatherism hence Peter Obi will get 25%.

2. Southsouth
Obi: 50%
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 10%
Others: 10%

This region will vote for Peter Obi massively, however their elites in PDP will also steal a lot of votes for Atiku, Tinubu is not popular here. He will get some votes in crossrivers state.

3. Northwest
Atiku: 40%
Tinubu: 25%
Kwankwaso: 20%
Obi: 10%
Others: 5%

This region usually vote a northerner since 1999, no a northerner always win here. However, APC elites will steal some votes for Tinubu but he will not win here. Kwankwaso will pull some vote here because he’s popular in this region. Majority of Obi’s votes will come from non-indigenes.

4. Northeast
Atiku: 45%
Tinubu: 25%
Kwankwaso: 15%
Obi: 10%
Others: 5%

Atiku will win his region for obvious reasons. Borno will give Tinubu a lot of votes because of Shettima . Kwankwaso is also popular here.

5. Southeast
Obi: 70%
Atiku: 20%
Others: 10%

We al know what will happen here, people here not only feel that obi is the most competent but they also feel that they have been obviously marginalized for so long. Atiku will come second because people still vote PDP here.

6. North central
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 30%
obi: 30%
Others: 10%

This is the most unpredictable region, kwara and kogi will give Tinubu votes, Abuja and Benue, Plateau , Nasarawa will give Obi votes, Benue, Nasarawa and Niger will give Atiku votes.

You missed north central. Obi is winning there

seems realistic, but politicians will collecting more votes in NC

ChangetheChange:
All permutations, odds, projections and reality on ground tilt towards an Atiku Abubakar Victory even without the support of Wike and the other 4 Governors in his camp
Now imagine Atiku getting the support of Wike and other Governors in his camp, it would have even made Atiku's projected electoral Victory flawless and overwhelming
.

This registered voters is not correct brother..

Donsheddy:


If he doesn't win the north where will he will....

For sure he won't win the south.....

How can you become president without winning any of the both region

If he wins the sw massively,wins nc narrowly and loses the ne nw narrowly, thats ok

[quote author=Workch post=117522700]1. Southwest
Tinubu: 55%
Peter Obi: 25%
Atiku: 10%
Others: 10%

Tinubu will win because people will vote here for tribal reasons and he has loyalists. However, Obi will be second because a lot of people here also want change and are tired of Tinubu’s godfatherism hence Peter Obi will get 25%.

2. Southsouth
Obi: 50%
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 10%
Others: 10%

This region will vote for Peter Obi massively, however their elites in PDP will also steal a lot of votes for Atiku, Tinubu is not popular here. He will get some votes in crossrivers state.

3. Northwest
Atiku: 40%
Tinubu: 25%
Kwankwaso: 20%
Obi: 10%
Others: 5%

This region usually vote a northerner since 1999, no a northerner always win here. However, APC elites will steal some votes for Tinubu but he will not win here. Kwankwaso will pull some vote here because he’s popular in this region. Majority of Obi’s votes will come from non-indigenes.

4. Northeast
Atiku: 45%
Tinubu: 25%
Kwankwaso: 15%
Obi: 10%
Others: 5%

Atiku will win his region for obvious reasons. Borno will give Tinubu a lot of votes because of Shettima . Kwankwaso is also popular here.

5. Southeast
Obi: 70%
Atiku: 20%
Others: 10%

We al know what will happen here, people here not only feel that obi is the most competent but they also feel that they have been obviously marginalized for so long. Atiku will come second because people still vote PDP here.

6. North central
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 30%
obi: 30%
Others: 10%




This is the most unpredictable region, kwara and kogi will give Tinubu votes, Abuja and Benue, Plateau , Nasarawa will give Obi votes, Benue, Nasarawa and Niger will give


Your brain too much. You would make an excellent POLITICAL ANALYST

garfield1:


Tinubu doesnt need to win the north,a narrow win or a narrow loss is ok plus a massive win in sw and staying close to atiku in ss se

If Tinubu loses the North,it's over for him

garfield1:


If he wins the sw massively,wins nc narrowly and loses the ne nw narrowly, thats ok

Tinubu can't win the NC.Benue,plateau, Nassarawa Abuja are no go areas for him

Workch:
Atiku is most likely to win

Atiku will not win Nasarawa and Benue for obvious reasons. Those people don here am for Fulani hands. Obi will win up to 60% of NC. A quarter of Benue people are Igbos.

Spy360:

Atiku will not win Nasarawa and Benue for obvious reasons. Those people don here am for Fulani hands. Obi will win up to 60% of NC. A quarter of Benue people are Igbos.

are you serious?

ChangetheChange:

Yep if Tinubu loses the North which will happen, he automatically loses the election as the traditional PDP strongholds and Christian dominated regions of South South and South East are no go area for Tinubu with his Muslim Muslim ticket.
Even if Tinubu is to win the North, he has to win the North by over 60% of the Northern votes similar to Buhari in order to offset whatever grounds lost in the South South and South East, but even Tinubu supporters know Tinubu can not even get up to 50% of Northern votes where u have Atiku and Kwankwaso in the race
ATIKU and Peter Obi will share first and second position across all the states of south South and South East,
Peter Obi will need to come 1st or second in the North West and North East (very unlikely and impossible) which have high voting population compared to the south east in order to stand any realistic chance of becoming President.

1) Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied across states across the North East

2) Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied across tates across the North West

3)Atiku will pick up 2nd highest Votes tallied in most states across the South West

4)Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied across states in the South South

5) Atiku will pick up 2nd highest Votes tallied in states across the South East

6)Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied in states across the North Central

Hate it or Love this election is going towards Atiku's direction

You keep talking about Atiku picking up first and second position but never mention with what margin, Atiku's 2nd position in the southeast will be with a very huge margin in favour of Obi, same as south south, while in the north central margin between Obi and Atiku will not be wide...in the northwest, he picks equal with Tinubu and Kwankwaso, same as northeast with a slightly higher margin.

So this election will actually by very close, probably with a rerun.

Workch:
1. Southwest
Tinubu: 55%
Peter Obi: 25%
Atiku: 10%
Others: 10%

Tinubu will win because people will vote here for tribal reasons and he has loyalists. However, Obi will be second because a lot of people here also want change and are tired of Tinubu’s godfatherism hence Peter Obi will get 25%.

2. Southsouth
Obi: 50%
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 10%
Others: 10%

This region will vote for Peter Obi massively, however their elites in PDP will also steal a lot of votes for Atiku, Tinubu is not popular here. He will get some votes in crossrivers state.

3. Northwest
Atiku: 40%
Tinubu: 25%
Kwankwaso: 20%
Obi: 10%
Others: 5%

This region usually vote a northerner since 1999, no a northerner always win here. However, APC elites will steal some votes for Tinubu but he will not win here. Kwankwaso will pull some vote here because he’s popular in this region. Majority of Obi’s votes will come from non-indigenes.

4. Northeast
Atiku: 45%
Tinubu: 25%
Kwankwaso: 15%
Obi: 10%
Others: 5%

Atiku will win his region for obvious reasons. Borno will give Tinubu a lot of votes because of Shettima . Kwankwaso is also popular here.

5. Southeast
Obi: 70%
Atiku: 20%
Others: 10%

We al know what will happen here, people here not only feel that obi is the most competent but they also feel that they have been obviously marginalized for so long. Atiku will come second because people still vote PDP here.

6. North central
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 30%
obi: 30%
Others: 10%

This is the most unpredictable region, kwara and kogi will give Tinubu votes, Abuja and Benue, Plateau , Nasarawa will give Obi votes, Benue, Nasarawa and Niger will give Atiku votes.

last elections, Atiku won Abuja so what will change now!! The election will happen and you will see that this prediction is a sham just to over exaggerate obi chances!! Atiku remains the candidate to beat after polling 12 m to Buhari's 15 m the only place Obi may win is in the east but it will be closely contested!! Only 3m Nigerians on Twitter!! Run a check on those shouting up obi and you will discover how old their accounts are! Lol make I know cast am

ChangetheChange:

Yep if Tinubu loses the North which will happen, he automatically loses the election as the traditional PDP strongholds and Christian dominated regions of South South and South East are no go area for Tinubu with his Muslim Muslim ticket.
Even if Tinubu is to win the North, he has to win the North by over 60% of the Northern votes similar to Buhari in order to offset whatever grounds lost in the South South and South East, but even Tinubu supporters know Tinubu can not even get up to 50% of Northern votes where u have Atiku and Kwankwaso in the race
ATIKU and Peter Obi will share first and second position across all the states of south South and South East,
Peter Obi will need to come 1st or second in the North West and North East (very unlikely and impossible) which have high voting population compared to the south east in order to stand any realistic chance of becoming President.

1) Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied across states across the North East

2) Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied across tates across the North West

3)Atiku will pick up 2nd highest Votes tallied in most states across the South West

4)Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied across states in the South South

5) Atiku will pick up 2nd highest Votes tallied in states across the South East

6)Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied in states across the North Central

Hate it or Love this election is going towards Atiku's direction

Fair analysis, Atiku can not pik up 1st in the south south or north central.
It js better to say Atiku will be 2nd in both these regions instead of saying first or second.
Obi will be first in Soutjh East and South.And possibly North Central.
Atiku will be first in North East and probably North West.
Tunubu will not be first any where, probably only in the south west, were his margin of victory will almost be the same as those of Obi, who will be second and Atiku who will be 3rd.
Sadly Tinubu's region the south west coupled with the North Central will be a battle ground.
Obi has two regions south south and south east.
Atiku has one and a half, North East and half of North West.
THE MARGINS OF VICTORIES IN THESE strong hold will determine who wins overall

Workch:


6. North central
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 30%
obi: 30%
Others: 10%

This is the most unpredictable region, kwara and kogi will give Tinubu votes, Abuja and Benue, Plateau , Nasarawa will give Obi votes, Benue, Nasarawa and Niger will give Atiku votes.

You are underestimating Obi's support in North Central by about 15 percent.

kcnwaigbo:

Tinubu can't win the NC.Benue,plateau, Nassarawa Abuja are no go areas for him

Buhari almost won benue.with atiku and obi sharing votes,tinubu will come close.obi will win plateau,fct followed by tinubu.nasarawa is divided

kcnwaigbo:

If Tinubu loses the North,it's over for him

No,atiku needs the north more

BTW did you say that Obi will get only 70% in South East?
Hahaha.
If Obi gets less than 90% in South East, na im be say he don lose the election.
Igbo eyes dey red for dis matter.
But wait till the election.

garfield1:


No,he doesnt need to win the north.atiku needs the north more

so he only need to win Southwest to be president right?

garfield1:


If he wins the sw massively,wins nc narrowly and loses the ne nw narrowly, thats ok

Lol
Are for real?

Workch:
Lol
Are for real?

If tinubu gets 35% up north,65% in sw,25% in se,ss,he wins

Workch:
so he only need to win Southwest to be president right?

And north central

garfield1:


If tinubu gets 35% up north,65% in sw,25% in se,ss,he wins

how do you think Tinubu will get 25% in SS and SE?

garfield1:


And north central

lol, ok

ChangetheChange:

Yep if Tinubu loses the North which will happen, he automatically loses the election as the traditional PDP strongholds and Christian dominated regions of South South and South East are no go area for Tinubu with his Muslim Muslim ticket.
Even if Tinubu is to win the North, he has to win the North by over 60% of the Northern votes similar to Buhari in order to offset whatever grounds lost in the South South and South East, but even Tinubu supporters know Tinubu can not even get up to 50% of Northern votes where u have Atiku and Kwankwaso in the race
ATIKU and Peter Obi will share first and second position across all the states of south South and South East,
Peter Obi will need to come 1st or second in the North West and North East (very unlikely and impossible) which have high voting population compared to the south east in order to stand any realistic chance of becoming President.

1) Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied across states across the North East

2) Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied across tates across the North West

3)Atiku will pick up 2nd highest Votes tallied in most states across the South West

4)Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied across states in the South South

5) Atiku will pick up 2nd highest Votes tallied in states across the South East

6)Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied in states across the North Central

Hate it or Love this election is going towards Atiku's direction

Okay, since Atiku will win everywhere according to you, then why did he stop his campaigns to beg Wike desperately?

You must be delusional to think Obi will share SE and SS with Atiku, just how?

Even in Okowa's village in Delta state, his kinsmen rejected him and are supporting Obi massively!

You think Atiku contesting with Obi in 2019 is same as Atiku with Okowa in 2023? Many things now count against Atiku in the South. It is generally believed that 2023 is turn of South and that's why Wike and the 5 PDP governors are enjoying support as they dribble Atiku.

Atiku can't get more than 10% in any SE state as it stands now. With Wike's deployment of 28'000 "special advisers" to all polling units in Rivers state, Atiku would be lucky to get 10% in Rivers. Atiku is totally locked out of Cross River, although he may get 25% in Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa.

In the SW, Atiku is unlikely to get 25% in any state there.

Atiku's only chance of winning is to get majority votes in NW and NE, but I don't see that happening except APC governors openly campaign for him.

In the NC, Atiku has little chance too. Obi wins Benue, Plateau and Nassarawa. Tinubu wins Kwara and Kogi. While Atiku wins Niger. In other words, Obi wins NC, SS, & SE as well as Taraba state overwhelmingly. Obi may still pull surprises by winning Lagos and Kaduna.

Atiku and Tinubu both have slim chances!!

Workch:
how do you think Tinubu will get 25% in SS and SE?

You and that guy are delusional. Even in 2015 & 2019, APC couldn't get 25% in SE and SS but now they've performed so woefully and still have a terrible combination of corrupt old man with Boko Haram patron in a Muslim Muslim ticket, he still believes APC will get 25%

garfield1:


If he wins the sw massively,wins nc narrowly and loses the ne nw narrowly, thats ok

Tinubu can't possibly win SW with more than 55%. And that's the only region he can win!

NC has 6 states, out of which Tinubu wins just Kwara and Kogi, while Obi wins 3 Benue, Plateau and Nassarawa.

Vote4Obi:


You and that guy are delusional. Even in 2015 & 2019, APC couldn't get 25% in SE and SS but now they've performed so woefully and still have a terrible combination of corrupt old man with Boko Haram patron in a Muslim Muslim ticket, he still believes APC will get 25%

how am I delusional?

LeoDeKing:

Chinedu, Don't mind the op.

The prediction should have given Peter Obi 100% in SE and 85% in other zones so our flat brains can be happy.

Mumu.. he was being realistic.
Peter Obi will even win d southeast wit more Dan DAT 70%

garfield1:


If he wins the sw massively,wins nc narrowly and loses the ne nw narrowly, thats ok

Are you sure he will win s.w massively....
Massively means at least 80% to 70% of vote cast.....

Apc needs to defeat atiku properly in the north to become president...
He can't lose the north and become president because he's losing the south for sure....

And he has two strong heads to contend with kwankwanso and atiku....


So far so good...
The election favours atiku very well...
And seconded by obi that's if he can pull a magic from the s.w and n.c



Tinubu winning s.w massively means winning Lagos massively

Cus that's the heart of s.w votes followed by osun. Which is in the hand of pdp now

To win a Presidential election in Nigeria, a candidate must have at least 70% of vote in 2 zones and 25% in at least 3 more zones....... Or complete 60% in 3 zones

The only region Tinubu can win without massive rigging and vote buying is the southwest.

Plateau: While Obi can't win the north central region, he might win one or two states (e.g. Plateau).

Kwara: Tinubu will win Kwara because of his muslim-muslim ticket although with a little margin. No other reason.

Kogi: Bello will rig massively in Kogi as always and there would be a lot of intimidation from his brothers (especially those boko-haram-like terrorists in Kogi central).

Faleke is also well respected in Kogi west so he might boost Tinubu's chances but the past and current legislators from that zone are strong PDP addicts (e.g., Dino). My parents reside here and they are voting Obi, so yeah, Obi has a chance here. Besides, the strong Christians in this region can never vote APC under any circumstance.

Kogi East, largest zone in Kogi, belongs to PDP and maybe some share of the votes for Obi. Igalas and Igbos are like 5&6 in some parts of the region.

Benue: This is largely between PDP and Labour party. What is Tinubu's going to tell them about Fulani herdsmen? Will he say that Buhari failed?

Abuja: APC has never won Abuja. Even Buhari lost Aso rock polling unit to Atiku in 2019.

Donsheddy:


Are you sure he will win s.w massively....
Massively means at least 80% to 70% of vote cast.....

Apc needs to defeat atiku properly in the north to become president...
He can't lose the north and become president because he's losing the south for sure....

And he has two strong heads to contend with kwankwanso and atiku....


So far so good...
The election favours atiku very well...
And seconded by obi that's if he can pull a magic from the s.w and n.c



Tinubu winning s.w massively means winning Lagos massively

Cus that's the heart of s.w votes followed by osun. Which is in the hand of pdp now

No one wins lagos massively.with two strong candidates in obi and atiku,55% is a massive win.it doesnt favour atiku,he has no sure region unlike obi and tinubu...he just nerds two regions