tiger28:

You are MORE concerned that Tinubu won't win than your Obi losing?

Same thing happened in Osun, APC lost the election and you see Biafrans rejoicing WHILE labor party had JUST 2000 Votes.......ain't you negroes JUST cursed?

AT THE END OF THE DAY,if Atiku wins, it's also a WIN for Yorubas because they have almost equal numbers in PDP and APC.

But for the Biafrans, it's a collosal loss if Tinubu or Atiku wins(which is almost sure) After your Candidate pulled out from PDP and ignorant Tinubu abuses.

Now you will see the fools yelling Biafra Biaflra and marginalization AFTER Elections.

They will be the FIRST to go to Aso rock with appointment list and P Square now releasing UNITY Songs in LAGOS.

Ibos are to myopic and Primitive for ANY Democracy!

Look at a poor soul lyk u.

Ur castigating d Ibo's, bt nt d Yoruba's. If d presidency ends up nt coming to d south, it's d fault of d Yoruba's.

We've had a turn of 8years presidency, 8 years vice presidency, yet we want more! wat stops us from supporting d south east, for equity nd unity of Nigeria. D south east supported Obasanjo's presidency. Soo wat stops is frm supporting an Obi dis tym around?

Ibo's av been know nt to support deir own. dey voted against Ojukwu, dey voted against Chuba Okadigbo.
Now dat dey are supporting Deir own, u lot are shouting dat dey are tribalistic.

Is d presidency for north nd south west alone? To make matas worst d south west candidate is one corrupt old man known for everything negative.

I know from d vry beginning dat d presidency might elude d south, just because of some selfish,greedy tribalistic individuals.

Vote4Obi:


Tinubu can't possibly win SW with more than 55%. And that's the only region he can win!

NC has 6 states, out of which Tinubu wins just Kwara and Kogi, while Obi wins 3 Benue, Plateau and Nassarawa.

Obi can't win nasarawa.obi can win three states in nc and still lose overall the nc.tinubu can win more than 55% afterall apart from lagos,labour is empty in sw

garfield1:


No one wins lagos massively.with two strong candidates in obi and atiku,55% is a massive win.it doesnt favour atiku,he has no sure region unlike obi and tinubu...he just nerds two regions

Atiku has sure region the north...
His chances of winning the north east is higher than that of tinubu....

Tinubu isn't sure of winning either north or south....

If you go by history of how n.w and n.e votes.
Kwankwanso has more chance to win the n.w and n.e....

Pdp couldn't do it with Jonathan and obj....

Only Yaradua did and guess what he is from the n.w.....

So don't tell me tinubu will

Acidosis:
The only region Tinubu can win without massive rigging and vote buying is the southwest.

Plateau: While Obi can't win the north central region, he might win one or two states (e.g. Plateau).

Kwara: Tinubu will win Kwara because of his muslim-muslim ticket although with a little margin. No other reason.

Kogi: Bello will rig massively in Kogi as always and there would be a lot of intimidation from his brothers (especially those boko-haram-like terrorists in Kogi central).

Faleke is also well respected in Kogi west so he might boost Tinubu's chances but the past and current legislators from that zone are strong PDP addicts (e.g., Dino). My parents reside here and they are voting Obi, so yeah, Obi has a chance here. Besides, the strong Christians in this region can never vote APC under any circumstance.

Kogi East, largest zone in Kogi, belongs to PDP and maybe some share of the votes for Obi. Igalas and Igbos are like 5&6 in some parts of the region.

Benue: This is largely between PDP and Labour party. What is Tinubu's going to tell them about Fulani herdsmen? Will he say that Buhari failed?

Abuja: APC has never won Abuja. Even Buhari lost Aso rock polling unit to Atiku in 2019.

Kwara will go massively to tinubu.tinubu has no explanation yo do about herdsmen,thats for atiku.the pdp in benue is against atiku so its between labour and apc..

Vote4Obi:


You and that guy are delusional. Even in 2015 & 2019, APC couldn't get 25% in SE and SS but now they've performed so woefully and still have a terrible combination of corrupt old man with Boko Haram patron in a Muslim Muslim ticket, he still believes APC will get 25%

Apc got more than 25% in se/ss in 2019

Cheasystickylov:
Fair analysis, Atiku can not pik up 1st in the south south or north central.
It js better to say Atiku will be 2nd in both these regions instead of saying first or second.
Obi will be first in Soutjh East and South.And possibly North Central.
Atiku will be first in North East and probably North West.
Tunubu will not be first any where, probably only in the south west, were his margin of victory will almost be the same as those of Obi, who will be second and Atiku who will be 3rd.
Sadly Tinubu's region the south west coupled with the North Central will be a battle ground.
Obi has two regions south south and south east.
Atiku has one and a half, North East and half of North West.
THE MARGINS OF VICTORIES IN THESE strong hold will determine who wins overall

Obi and tinubu has one region,atiku has no region

Workch:
how do you think Tinubu will get 25% in SS and SE?

Buhari got it tinubu will get more esp with pdp divided.

Donsheddy:


Atiku has sure region the north...
His chances of winning the north east is higher than that of tinubu....

Tinubu isn't sure of winning either north or south....

If you go by history of how n.w and n.e votes.
Kwankwanso has more chance to win the n.w and n.e....

Pdp couldn't do it with Jonathan and obj....

Only Yaradua did and guess what he is from the n.w.....

So don't tell me tinubu will

Kwankwaso will likely win nw followed by tinubu.in ne,atiku is sure of just Adamawa and taraba.bauchi and gombe us 50 50.nc is between tinubu and obi.atiku has no sure region.his sure regions was ss/se which is gone

garfield1:


Kwara will go massively to tinubu.tinubu has no explanation yo do about herdsmen,thats for atiku.the pdp in benue is against atiku so its between labour and apc..

While Tinubu will win in Kwara, don't overestimate his chances. Lai Muhammed and the current governor do not seem to be on the same page. Besides, the hunger in the land has heightened and Saraki may just be back to convince his people.

garfield1:


Buhari got it tinubu will get more esp with pdp divided.

Buhari got it with Pastor Osibanjo on the ballot. Tinubu wants to get it with who?

ChangetheChange:
All permutations, odds, projections and reality on ground tilt towards an Atiku Abubakar Victory even without the support of Wike and the other 4 Governors in his camp
Now imagine Atiku getting the support of Wike and other Governors in his camp, it would have even made Atiku's projected electoral Victory flawless and overwhelming
.

Where did u get this fake data from? Na wa oo

garfield1:


Buhari got it tinubu will get more esp with pdp divided.

ok

Acidosis:


Buhari got it with Pastor Osibanjo on the ballot. Tinubu wants to get it with who?

Osibanjo wasn't a factor.why didnt buhari get it in 2015? Why did osibanjo deliver sw narrowly? Buhari got it because there was mass defection of pdp chieftains to apc in ss/se and there are still in apc

Acidosis:


While Tinubu will win in Kwara, don't overestimate his chances. Lai Muhammed and the current governor do not seem to be on the same page. Besides, the hunger in the land has heightened and Saraki may just be back to convince his people.

Saraki is politically gone,buhari got 65% I'm kwara,tinubu can't get less.saraki as Senate president and campaign DG of atiku couldn't deliver kwara,what can he now do?.while lai and the gov are quarrelling,all are working for tinubu.sdp in kwara has also declared for him.all the apc candidates that lost primaries declared for tinubu but abandoned local candidates.

garfield1:


Saraki is politically gone,buhari got 65% I'm kwara,tinubu can't get less.saraki as Senate president and campaign DG of atiku couldn't deliver kwara,what can he now do?.while lai and the gov are quarrelling,all are working for tinubu.sdp in kwara has also declared for him.all the apc candidates that lost primaries declared for tinubu but abandoned local candidates.

Okay. Time will tell.

garfield1:


Osibanjo wasn't a factor.why didnt buhari get it in 2015? Why did osibanjo deliver sw narrowly? Buhari got it because there was mass defection of pdp chieftains to apc in ss/se and there are still in apc

Now their son is on the ballot as the main ticket holder. Again, time will tell.

Some people are really underestimating the way this muslim-muslim ticket will backfire I just dey look una.

Acidosis:


Now their son is on the ballot as the main ticket holder. Again, time will tell.

Which son? Obi is a se son and will win se.atiku is on the ticket not okowa.okowa doesnt have that appeal,charisma and political will to command ss votes.moreover,ss voting is through tug of war

ChangetheChange:

Yep if Tinubu loses the North which will happen, he automatically loses the election as the traditional PDP strongholds and Christian dominated regions of South South and South East are no go area for Tinubu with his Muslim Muslim ticket.
Even if Tinubu is to win the North, he has to win the North by over 60% of the Northern votes similar to Buhari in order to offset whatever grounds lost in the South South and South East, but even Tinubu supporters know Tinubu can not even get up to 50% of Northern votes where u have Atiku and Kwankwaso in the race
ATIKU and Peter Obi will share first and second position across all the states of south South and South East,
Peter Obi will need to come 1st or second in the North West and North East (very unlikely and impossible) which have high voting population compared to the south east in order to stand any realistic chance of becoming President.

1) Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied across states across the North East

2) Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied across tates across the North West

3)Atiku will pick up 2nd highest Votes tallied in most states across the South West

4)Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied across states in the South South

5) Atiku will pick up 2nd highest Votes tallied in states across the South East

6)Atiku will pick up 1st or 2nd highest Votes tallied in states across the North Central

Hate it or Love this election is going towards Atiku's direction

Seems to be going that way

To be honest
It will be difficult for APC to win the election without sw landslide win to support northern votes

DearDealz:
To be honest
It will be difficult for APC to win the election without sw landslide win to support northern votes

Very true

DearDealz:
To be honest
It will be difficult for APC to win the election without SW's landslide win to support northern votes

What Tinubu need to win the election is half the total vote in the South

Indices that would determine that are

1. Lagos population
2. Lagos record
3. Separation between Atiku and Obi
4 Power of incumbency
5. Voting strength and turnout from SW
6. Other support from politicians like Wike and co.

Indices that could work against it

1. Low turnout of voters in SW
2. LP collapsing into and supporting PDP in the presidential election
3. SE turnout and impact of insecurity in the region
4. Muslim/ Muslim ticket

My submission:

Lagos should increase vote turnout to nothing less than 2.5m
SW should give average of 75%
The party should closely monitor the affairs of APC leaders especially in the SE and SS
Campaign should be aggressive with comparative analysis of infrastructural project between APC and PDP government
APC should flaunt Tinubu's achievement as Lagos governor
APC should use Lagos development as centerpiece model of it's campaign

Sammy07:

Lol!!!

ButterBerry:
Am from Delta State same senatorial district with Okowa to be precise. South South will pull massive vote for Labour party. Most of the PDP members are rooting for Obi presidency then their party candidate for other elections.

obi and atiku will share pdp vote of 2019,
That one no concern tinubu.
40% of total vote is sure for tinubu,
Obi and atiku can share 60% of total vote and drag for 2nd or 3rd position

Demolakay:


Look at a poor soul lyk u.

Ur castigating d Ibo's, bt nt d Yoruba's. If d presidency ends up nt coming to d south, it's d fault of d Yoruba's.

We've had a turn of 8years presidency, 8 years vice presidency, yet we want more! wat stops us from supporting d south east, for equity nd unity of Nigeria. D south east supported Obasanjo's presidency. Soo wat stops is frm supporting an Obi dis tym around?

Ibo's av been know nt to support deir own. dey voted against Ojukwu, dey voted against Chuba Okadigbo.
Now dat dey are supporting Deir own, u lot are shouting dat dey are tribalistic.

Is d presidency for north nd south west alone? To make matas worst d south west candidate is one corrupt old man known for everything negative.

I know from d vry beginning dat d presidency might elude d south, just because of some selfish,greedy tribalistic individuals.

we warn ibos to come to apc in 2015, they still supported pdp since 1999.
That is their fault.
Let them share pdp vote. Apc vote are still intact.

Jesusloveyou:
we warn ibos to come to apc in 2015, they still supported pdp since 1999.
That is their fault.
Let them share pdp vote. Apc vote are still intact.

Dey dere dey dceiv urself. 2023 is almost upon us.
Na den we go know,if una votes still dey intact.

Jesusloveyou:
we warn ibos to come to apc in 2015, they still supported pdp since 1999.
That is their fault.
Let them share pdp vote. Apc vote are still intact.

Factors affecting apc intact votes

Muslim Muslim ticket (northern Christians and southern Christians are not happy

APC economic failure (everything is expensive)

Tinubu vs two strong northerners aspirants

Tinubu health condition( Christians fear of shettima becoming president)

Workch:
1. Southwest
Tinubu: 55%
Peter Obi: 25%
Atiku: 10%
Others: 10%

Tinubu will win because people will vote here for tribal reasons and he has loyalists. However, Obi will be second because a lot of people here also want change and are tired of Tinubu’s godfatherism hence Peter Obi will get 25%.

2. Southsouth
Obi: 50%
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 10%
Others: 10%

This region will vote for Peter Obi massively, however their elites in PDP will also steal a lot of votes for Atiku, Tinubu is not popular here. He will get some votes in crossrivers state.

3. Northwest
Atiku: 40%
Tinubu: 25%
Kwankwaso: 20%
Obi: 10%
Others: 5%

This region usually vote a northerner since 1999, no a northerner always win here. However, APC elites will steal some votes for Tinubu but he will not win here. Kwankwaso will pull some vote here because he’s popular in this region. Majority of Obi’s votes will come from non-indigenes.

4. Northeast
Atiku: 45%
Tinubu: 25%
Kwankwaso: 15%
Obi: 10%
Others: 5%

Atiku will win his region for obvious reasons. Borno will give Tinubu a lot of votes because of Shettima . Kwankwaso is also popular here.

5. Southeast
Obi: 70%
Atiku: 20%
Others: 10%

We al know what will happen here, people here not only feel that obi is the most competent but they also feel that they have been obviously marginalized for so long. Atiku will come second because people still vote PDP here.

6. North central
Atiku: 30%
Tinubu: 30%
obi: 30%
Others: 10%

This is the most unpredictable region, kwara and kogi will give Tinubu votes, Abuja and Benue, Plateau , Nasarawa will give Obi votes, Benue, Nasarawa and Niger will give Atiku votes.

Here's how this will likely pan out. Most calculations do not factor in the nationwide of existence NLC and TUC, major stakeholders in the Labour movement. The same people who mandate the nationwide strikes we have all witnessed pulled the ears of several recalcitrant Nigerian governments.

People will largely vote along ethnic lines, but Peter Obi is the only candidate in this election who has evidently transcended not only this very visible divide but also actively and increasingly winning the trust of the otherwise skeptical older generation. These factors will definitely result in more votes at the poll stations for Labour and its candidates.

I can reasonably expect Peter Obi to win votes in the regions thus:

southeast +>80 percent
Southsouth +>55 percent
Northcentral +>40 percent
Southwest +>30 percent

Northeast +-15 percent
Northwest +-20 percent

Now, if it does go to a runoff, it will be between Obi and Atiku.
Obi will win Southeast, Southsouth, Southwest, and North Central.
Atiku will win North East and North West.

The simple majority of votes thus cast will accrue to Obi, and he wins.

Ttalk:


What Tinubu need to win the election is half the total vote in the South

Indices that would determine that are

1. Lagos population
2. Lagos record
3. Separation between Atiku and Obi
4 Power of incumbency
5. Voting strength and turnout from SW
6. Other support from politicians like Wike and co.

Indices that could work against it

1. Low turnout of voters in SW
2. LP collapsing into and supporting PDP in the presidential election
3. SE turnout and impact of insecurity in the region
4. Muslim/ Muslim ticket

My submission:

Lagos should increase vote turnout to nothing less than 2.5m
SW should give average of 75%
The party should closely monitor the affairs of APC leaders especially in the SE and SS
Campaign should be aggressive with comparative analysis of infrastructural project between APC and PDP government
APC should flaunt Tinubu's achievement as Lagos governor
APC should use Lagos development as centerpiece model of it's campaign

Half won't be comfortable because it might not cover for the block votes obi will get in the south east and south south.
Also it won't cover the second position of atiku in the South east and south south . The number of voters turn out and registered voters in south west is usually small compared to the North

The Lagos population won't really matter because a lot of first time Lagos voters are youths and people who want a change in power just like in 2015(Jonathan lost) . Also the the presence of other tribes in Lagos won't favor the ruling party as there's this point that these non indigenes want to prove in Lagos.

In fact sanwo olu will get more votes at state level than asiwaju at presidential election.

Also the south west are the most intelligent voters , whoever they give reasonable support always wins the election.


Obi will perform well in south west because of muslim muslim ticket.

Also there's an high level of educated south Westerners who are non tribalists , they will likely pitch tent with obi , this is why an Osibanjo lost his polling unit last election in ikoyi. In fact obi might even win tinubu in his bourdullion polling unit if care is not taken.



Theres a reason why the anan polls and other polls conducted didnt give tinubu the block votes that he was expected to get as a south western candidate.

Power of incumbency will not work due to APC economic failure as well as the introduction of bivas.


In conclusion, it will be difficult for tinubu to defeat two northerners in the north and also get block votes in the south west since there's no hope in the south east and south south(Muslim Muslim ticket).

A run off between obi and atiku is most likely due to 25 percent in 25 states.