tinsel:

Let him condemn the activities of IPOB.

Check his Twitter page. He does it all the time.

JoeNL22:

On point. The problem with Tinubu's supporters is they don't understand Nigerian politics. They think because he built a particular state, then they will vote for Him. And I ask them this question. Did we vote obj, buhari, Gej and Yarudua because of their achievements? No we didn't. Hence we will not vote Tinubu based on the fact he allegedly built "Lagos".

Whether these urchins like it or not, the Muslim ticket will really cause problems for Tinubu. 2023 is cumin!

Buhari,gej and yaradua won because they primarily contested on a strong party and secondly were strong in 4 regions

Thanksful:
Tinubu's urchinss are very slow in reasoning.

To them the north will easily vote Tinubu and not vote Obi.

What is their reason?

Let me help them.

1) it is the turn of the christian to rule Nigeria at the moment after Buhari.

Why would Christians prefer Tinubu who is on a Muslim-Muslim ticket to Obi?

Let's I forget.

The christians in the North is made up of more than 50% of the North.

What Obi need is 40% of that 50%

To burst your bubble. More Muslims will vote Obi self.

For Atiku, most Muslims wouldn't even vote him because

He is seen as both corrupt and a thief

In case you don't know, the north hate thieves with passion.

Even if atiku and kwankwaso drop and endorse obi,tinubu will still flog him in the north

garfield1:


You dont need to win core north to win.35% is ok.even if Jonathan lost north central,he would still have won because he got votes from north

Not for Tinubu. 35% is too small. Why? Because that's where his hope of getting bloc votes lies in the core north. He needs 70% from the core north to win this elections. The southwest is too liberal to give me bloc votes. SE & SS is no go area. Remember Atiku is there.
Tinubu will battle Atiku in the core north. Tinubu will battle Obi in the SE & SS. The NC is 50-50. So he needs the overwhelming support(@70%) of the core north to win this elections

garfield1:


Even if atiku and kwankwaso drop and endorse obi,tinubu will still flog him in the north

No.....i totally disagree. There's a reason why the elders from the core north cums to kwankwanso house everyday to beg him to step down for Atiku. Atiku & kwankwanso have a large number of following. Hence obi will definitely get MASSIVE votes from 20%(my projected analysis) to 35%(If Atiku and Kwankwanso steps down for obi)

garfield1:


Buhari,gej and yaradua won because they primarily contested on a strong party and secondly were strong in 4 regions

And who told you obi is not strong in at least 3 regions in the south?

With this analysis, Obi has won the election..

2023 would be similar, it was a 2 horse race in 2011, now its 4 horse race..

JoeNL22:

And who told you obi is not strong in at least 3 regions in the south?

Obj, buhari and gej dominated or won 4 regions.can obi win 4 regions

Essenza01:
With this analysis, Obi has won the election..

2023 would be similar, it was a 2 horse race in 2011, now its 4 horse race..

Obi has lost because he can't penetrate core north

JoeNL22:

No.....i totally disagree. There's a reason why the elders from the core north cums to kwankwanso house everyday to beg him to step down for Atiku. Atiku & kwankwanso have a large number of following. Hence obi will definitely get MASSIVE votes from 20%(my projected analysis) to 35%(If Atiku and Kwankwanso steps down for obi)

Which elders? Can you mention them? What if he's lying to raise his stock and profile? Kwankwaso have a large following not atiku.naturally,northerners don't like igbos,you know this

JoeNL22:

Not for Tinubu. 35% is too small. Why? Because that's where his hope of getting bloc votes lies in the core north. He needs 70% from the core north to win this elections. The southwest is too liberal to give me bloc votes. SE & SS is no go area. Remember Atiku is there.
Tinubu will battle Atiku in the core north. Tinubu will battle Obi in the SE & SS. The NC is 50-50. So he needs the overwhelming support(@70%) of the core north to win this elections

Oga as it stands,the race is 4 way and very tight.even Buhari didn't get 70% from the north.all tinubu needs is 60% from the west and 35% from the north provided that atiku doesnt get more than 45% ..
Tinubu doesnt need bloc votes from the north to win.he just needs to divide the north or stay close to atiku or just win narrowly.sw is not liberal when their son is on the ballot.they gave awolowo,falae and abiola bloc votes.buhari got 55% in sw,tinubu will get at least 60%

garfield1:


Obi has lost because he can't penetrate core north

He has his quota there already, his competitors would scramble for the larger share..

Obi is the only candidate with 3 region equivalent stronghold..

- SE
- SS
- NC/SW

Which other candidate has that?

garfield1:


Oga as it stands,the race is 4 way and very tight.even Buhari didn't get 70% from the north.all tinubu needs is 60% from the west and 35% from the north provided that atiku doesnt get more than 45% ..
Tinubu doesnt need bloc votes from the north to win.he just needs to divide the north or stay close to atiku or just win narrowly.sw is not liberal when their son is on the ballot.they gave awolowo,falae and abiola bloc votes.buhari got 55% in sw,tinubu will get at least 60%

Yes, SW gave them block votes because they are real omoluabi's,
In Tinubu's case,they will not give him any block vote because he is not an omoluabi, he migrated from either of these two countries Togo or Benin Republic

fergie001:
The politicians are going for the numbers (NW, SW, NC, SS) .... Like I have always said, the APC is the Party to beat. They are the ruling Party and have the machinery/finance to prosecute the election irrespective of what they have given us these past 7 years.

In the NW, they have one State already before the election starts, that sends a message. The 25% in 24 States is where I think there will be some real politicking.

Oga the issue is that the APC will not be winning the NW in 2023

garfield1:


Obj, buhari and gej dominated or won 4 regions.can obi win 4 regions

None of the candidates can win 4 regions.You don't even need to win four regions to win the 2023 elections as it will be a very tight four horse race

kcnwaigbo:

None of the candidates can win 4 regions.You don't even need to win four regions to win the 2023 elections as it will be a very tight four horse race

True.highest obi can win two regions and lose scandalously in other two

I've not really studied the 2011 general election until now, although the 2011 general election was marred with irregularities, however, you can only rig where you are popular.

Even in today's world, labour party cannot rig an election in Kano just as APC cannot rig in Anambra State cos of minimal structure there.

With that having said, if former president Jonathan could get 25% in all northern states with exception of one or two, can Obi pool this numbers? Be sincere and judge accordingly.

Secondly, during the time as the incubent president, running on a nationaly accepted party, with only one strong contender to contend with, the gap isn't too wide.

Now consider it with happenings in today's setting, there are four major constetants and two of them are running on national accepted parties and can afford to lose a region or two and still win, can Obi lose the North West and East without losing out entirely?

Obi and labor party has an uphill tasks at hand and time is not on their side.

Obi is losing woefully in the regions that matters. I'd rather get a 35% in Kano than to win outrightly in Anambra State.

Don't expect Tinubu not to get minimum of 60% in South West, if Buhari can get 55%, expect Tinubu to get even more.

I don't see Obi even winning all the south south states, Delta will most likely go to PDP or with very good showing.

North Central, some states are already won by Tinubu. Kwara, kogi, Niger. Getting 25% won't be hard in Abuja, Nasarawa states.

North East, Borno, Yobe is in the bag, getting 25% won't be hard in Bauchi State.

North West, Zamfara is very sure, getting 25% in Kano, sokoto, kebbi, kaduna and sokoto won't be an issue.

Only south east and South South will go to Obi.

Do the mathematics.

SmartPolician:
There's no phrase like core North.
Specify the region because it's clear that Jonathan lost in all the NE and NW states.

I don't know if it's tribalism or lack of education, but the NE and NW haven't been known to vote for politicians from the South. Every politician from the South should focus on north central.

PS: Imo State voting strength dropped significantly. Imo had the second-biggest voting block in the SE and SS after Rivers.

Jonathan won in Adamawa, Nasarawa and Taraba, close contest in Kaduna, Jigawa, Gombe, kebbi, Zamfara, Yobe, Sokoto. Plus winning the north central e.g Kogi, Abuja and plateau.

garfield1:


Oga as it stands,the race is 4 way and very tight.even Buhari didn't get 70% from the north.all tinubu needs is 60% from the west and 35% from the north provided that atiku doesnt get more than 45% ..
Tinubu doesnt need bloc votes from the north to win.he just needs to divide the north or stay close to atiku or just win narrowly.sw is not liberal when their son is on the ballot.they gave awolowo,falae and abiola bloc votes.buhari got 55% in sw,tinubu will get at least 60%

Sorry to say, he does. Why does he?. Simple, he has relied on them(core north) too much. Tinubu can't get 25% from the SE & SS. The SW will vote like this: Tinubu-50%, obi-40% & Atiku-10%. Tinubu can't get 60% from the SW. Sw is not Lagos. The core north will give him: 40%-NW & 30%-NE, therefore the core north will give him at most, 35%, it's very small, he can't win the elections with 35%, Atiku will get sympathy votes from the core north because of Wike and d G-5 governors, hence he might get also 35% from the core north, Tinubu and Atiku are evenly matched. That's why the northern elites are seriously begging kwankwanso to step down for Atiku, at most, kwankwanso will get 10% from the core north, don't forget the Christians in the core north, most of them will do protest vote and likely vote Obi, obi just needs 20% of the voting Christians in the north. That's all. Game over. So you see. I don't see Tinubu wining this elections. Tinubu will test his popularity, but you should understand one thing, Apc has really dealt with Nigerians and Nigeria. Am not sure Apc will come back again. The reason y obi is the most talked about politician right now is because its time for the south.
Lastly, 3 regions(NE, SE & NC) haven't produced a president, therefore it won't make sense for the SW to become president twice, and VP once, this nation is not only for the SW, other regions are there also. There's no personal vendetta against Tinubu, Nigerian politics is a game, and Tinubu isn't above the rules and regulations of the game. Hence, Tinubu must abide by It. The people of southeast are Nigerians also, hence, we must treat them as such

Obaofaba:
Obi is losing woefully in the regions that matters. I'd rather get a 35% in Kano than to win outrightly in Anambra State.

Don't expect Tinubu not to get minimum of 60% in South West, if Buhari can get 55%, expect Tinubu to get even more.

I don't see Obi even winning all the south south states, Delta will most likely go to PDP or with very good showing.

North Central, some states are already won by Tinubu. Kwara, kogi, Niger. Getting 25% won't be hard in Abuja, Nasarawa states.

North East, Borno, Yobe is in the bag, getting 25% won't be hard in Bauchi State.

North West, Zamfara is very sure, getting 25% in Kano, sokoto, kebbi, kaduna and sokoto won't be an issue.

Only south east and South South will go to Obi.

Do the mathematics.

Well...the last time I checked. The core north overwhelmingly voted for Buhari in 2011. But I guess you knew who won the elections. Lol. Tinubu won't get 60% from the SW, Sw isn't Lagos. At most 50% or less. Obi will get 40% or more. Atiku will get 10% or less. The last time I checked no southerner has won 51% from kano since 2003. Will Tinubu make history?......I seriously doubt it. Those people will forever vote their own. The SS didn't forget what they did to GEJ in 2015, hence I seriously doubt if they will vote Atiku and Tinubu, Atiku led a coup in PDP with 5 governors in 2015, and you know the saying, karma is a b*tch, the g-5 governors are doing the same thing. And for Tinubu, he led a massive propaganda campaign against their son GEJ, its till fresh in their memory. Hence obi will overwhelmingly get 80% at least in the SS.
Finally. The Muslim ticket will cause problems for Tinubu, we all still remember Deborah samuel, leah shuabir and the south Kaduna killings, hence the Christians in the core north and middle belt will definitely ensure 1+1=4.

Obaofaba:
I've not really studied the 2011 general election until now, although the 2011 general election was marred with irregularities, however, you can only rig where you are popular.

Even in today's world, labour party cannot rig an election in Kano just as APC cannot rig in Anambra State cos of minimal structure there.

With that having said, if former president Jonathan could get 25% in all northern states with exception of one or two, can Obi pool this numbers? Be sincere and judge accordingly.

Secondly, during the time as the incubent president, running on a nationaly accepted party, with only one strong contender to contend with, the gap isn't too wide.

Now consider it with happenings in today's setting, there are four major constetants and two of them are running on national accepted parties and can afford to lose a region or two and still win, can Obi lose the North West and East without losing out entirely?

Obi and labor party has an uphill tasks at hand and time is not on their side.

Very true.
That's why obi needs to show his strength more in the south than starting in the middle belt. Focus on your strength, work on your weaknesses. And that's what obi is doing. Obi is concentrating on the voting block that's doesn't vote during the elections. Youths and Christians. If 50% of the voting population of Christian & 50% of the voting population of youths come out to vote obi. The elections has ended before it starts. And he has done that exceptional well @most 75% about that aspect.
Why do you think they keep attacking a party that doesn't have structure?. They know his influence grows every minute and it worries them. They said obi will loose the elections, yet the party with structures are HIRING Seun osewa of NL, FFK, RENO, KEYAMO, DINO, SOLUDO and many others to attack a man who doesn't have a political structure. Isn't that funny?.....
Therefore, obi just needs, kwankwanso and Atiku to continue in the core north to break and reduce Tinubu's votes. And obi should beg the sane Nigerians in the north who love equity and justice to spread the word about him and overwhelmingly come out to give him the 20-25% REQUIREMENTS he needs. The middle belt will follow suit when the right time comes.

garfield1:


Which elders? Can you mention them? What if he's lying to raise his stock and profile? Kwankwaso have a large following not atiku.naturally,northerners don't like igbos,you know this

Kwankwanso used his mouth to say it. Not me, you could ask him.

JoeNL22:

Kwankwanso used his mouth to say it. Not me, you could ask him.

What if he is lying

JoeNL22:

Sorry to say, he does. Why does he?. Simple, he has relied on them(core north) too much. Tinubu can't get 25% from the SE & SS. The SW will vote like this: Tinubu-50%, obi-40% & Atiku-10%. Tinubu can't get 60% from the SW. Sw is not Lagos. The core north will give him: 40%-NW & 30%-NE, therefore the core north will give him at most, 35%, it's very small, he can't win the elections with 35%, Atiku will get sympathy votes from the core north because of Wike and d G-5 governors, hence he might get also 35% from the core north, Tinubu and Atiku are evenly matched. That's why the northern elites are seriously begging kwankwanso to step down for Atiku, at most, kwankwanso will get 10% from the core north, don't forget the Christians in the core north, most of them will do protest vote and likely vote Obi, obi just needs 20% of the voting Christians in the north. That's all. Game over. So you see. I don't see Tinubu wining this elections. Tinubu will test his popularity, but you should understand one thing, Apc has really dealt with Nigerians and Nigeria. Am not sure Apc will come back again. The reason y obi is the most talked about politician right now is because its time for the south.
Lastly, 3 regions(NE, SE & NC) haven't produced a president, therefore it won't make sense for the SW to become president twice, and VP once, this nation is not only for the SW, other regions and there also. There's no personal vendetta against Tinubu, Nigerian politics is a game, and Tinubu isn't above the rules and regulations of the game. Hence, Tinubu must abide by It. The people of southeast are Nigerians also, hence, we must treat them as such

Buhari got 55% from the sw,tinubu a Yoruba will get more.the only place obi will get 40% in sw is lagos.in places like ekiti,osun,ondo,obi can't get even 10%.dont be deceived,those guys dony like ibos.before the polls,they will have a town hall meet and vote tinubu.dont forget,almost all IBO's are supporting obi so it will push them to vote tinubu...

35% from the north is ok.atiku 35%,kwankwaso 20% obi 10%.tinubu will use sw to overtake atiku.he will also beat atiku in nc...tinubu will get 25% in at least 4 ss/se states...obi can only do well in north central but tinubu will match him there or beat him tinubu will finish him in places like borno,yobe,sokoto,zamfara

garfield1:


What if he is lying

Having a four way contest is replicating the polls of 79/83.
You can't take away the influence of votes buying. NBS said 133m Nigerians are multi dimensionally poor. What does tell you?
And the NEF raising alarms of PVCS being sold for as cheap as 2k down North.
APC'S chieftains boasting to the press that they have more than enough money to prosecute the election?
Whoever wants to win must spend heavily.
Even the statistics of registered voters shows educated people lagging behind.
And you can't rig where you are not popular.
Whoever shouting we don't give shi shi is shooting himself in the foot.

garfield1:


What if he is lying

Why should he?
What benefits does he get from it?

JoeNL22:

Why should he?
What benefits does he get from it?

You are funny.have you seen pix or videos of any top northern leader visiting him? But you see them with tinubu and atiku

Aiel123:

Having a four way contest is replicating the polls of 79/83.
You can't take away the influence of votes buying. NBS said 133m Nigerians are multi dimensionally poor. What does tell you?
And the NEF raising alarms of PVCS being sold for as cheap as 2k down North.
APC'S chieftains boasting to the press that they have more than enough money to prosecute the election?
Whoever wants to win must spend heavily.
Even the statistics of registered voters shows educated people lagging behind.
And you can't rig where you are not popular.
Whoever shouting we don't give shi shi is shooting himself in the foot.

Hmmm

tinsel:
Some people always argue that Jonathan won the 2011 presidential election without winning the core north western states. But the fact is he performed very well in the north.
Please see the results yourselves and compare with the present 2023 scenario.

This election is different
In 2011 we had only Buhari from the north and Jonathan from the south
Jonathan was able to win because the entire south queued behind him, so by then needing just few states from the north to emerge.
Now, Tinubu doesn't have the entire south behind him, there is Atiku and kwakwanso fighting for the same northerner's votes he is fighting for too.
Majority of the North will vote Atiku.
The reason GEJ lost 2015 election was because the south west pulled away from him.
So I'm still thinking where Tinubu will get his votes from?

garfield1:


Buhari got 55% from the sw,tinubu a Yoruba will get more.the only place obi will get 40% in sw is lagos.in places like ekiti,osun,ondo,obi can't get even 10%.dont be deceived,those guys dony like ibos.before the polls,they will have a town hall meet and vote tinubu.dont forget,almost all IBO's are supporting obi so it will push them to vote tinubu...

35% from the north is ok.atiku 35%,kwankwaso 20% obi 10%.tinubu will use sw to overtake atiku.he will also beat atiku in nc...tinubu will get 25% in at least 4 ss/se states...obi can only do well in north central but tinubu will match him there or beat him tinubu will finish him in places like borno,yobe,sokoto,zamfara

Says who?......who told you that the sw don't like igbos?, what evidence do you have to prove your assumptions?. Lol....obi will get more than 40% from all the states you mentioned in the south west. Obi is more nationally accepted than kwankwanso, hence it will reflect in the core north. And obi will beat Tinubu in NC. NC will likely vote: 49%-obi, 17%-Atiku, 17%-KWANKWANSO, 17%-Tinubu. Lol......did you say 25% in 4 states in the ss & se....... . Lol!......if you believe Tinubu will get 25% from the se/ss. Obi will definitely get 25% from the NW & NE. But obi can get 40% from Lagos. Tinubu can't get 10% from Anambra. So how does Tinubu want to win this elections.......

garfield1:


You are funny.have you seen pix or videos of any top northern leader visiting him? But you see them with tinubu and atiku

Lol.....because you don't see it doesn't mean it's not happening