Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

Dapagun:
For the first time since the 1960s, there are 3 competitive political blocs largely along the old regional divides.

Hence the latest survey, which was commissioned by @EiENigeria and conducted by @sbmintelligence, did not provide us with a clear front-runner.

The first 2023 election survey conducted by SBM was published in July 2022 and showed that only 41% of registered voters had collected their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs). (IMAGE 1)

This assumption of low turnout fed into our December 2022 projections, based on a 7,000-respondent survey. (Image 2)

The assumption of low turnout changed when, in January 2023, our 6,500-respondent survey on PVC collection showed a remarkable increase in PVC collection - 97%.

We believe that the surge in voter awareness done by
@inecnigeria and CSOs like Enough is Enough (EiE), through their #RSVP Campaign, have driven voter interest and bucked the low turnout trend in #Nigeria's elections.

Many respondents were clear about whom they felt would win the presidential contest in their state but were not straightforward about their candidate preferences. Furthermore, many registered voters told us that ethnicity and religion would play an important part in their choice.

This runs contrary to recent commentary, which suggests that #NigeriaDecides2023 will be #Nigeria’s first post-modern election, where substantial issues will determine voter choice.

The respondents also said that they expect vote buying despite recent technological and legislative changes to curb that. While an overwhelming majority of respondents claim that they won’t sell their vote, more than a third have experienced vote buying in the past.

The data suggest that @PeterObi and @Atiku could garner enough votes over a sufficient number of states across four of the country’s six geopolitical zones to meet the constitutional requirement of scoring 25% in at least 24 states. (Image 3 and 4)

https://twitter.com/sbmintelligence/status/1626597562282307594?t=viYDxVXs5qwPWmu2H6DvIA&s=19

Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

Mynd44:

Sorry, which Ogun state?

Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

Obaaderemi2:
The way to go is for Tinubu to reach out to Kwakwanso and convince him to form an alliance. Kwakwanso can't win the election.

Dapagun:
This outcome, however, is complicated by the fact that @officialABAT is likely to do well in two of the country’s biggest voting states—Kano and Lagos—and the heavily populated south-west and north-west states, thereby winning the popular vote, but not reaching 25% in 24 states. (Image 1)

Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

ENGINEERG:
If anyone tells you Peter obi can not win again, tell them he is now sure to win 14 states plus FCT from the 36 states. The states are:
Abia
Ebonyi
Enugu
Imo
Anambra
Edo
Rivers
Cross River
Delta
Akwa ibom
Bayelsa
Benue
Plateau
Taraba
Fct.

The core North that obi won't do well, will be majorly divided by 3 candidates( Tinubu, Atiku and kwanswaso) and obi Will get something too.
South West will still be divided too, whereas South east and South south won't be so divided,and obi will get landslide victory there.

so let no person tell you it's not possible again, its so POssible

Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

Mynd44:

Sorry, which Ogun state?

Massiveglory:
With the coming of BVAS, expect some shock results in varioys places especially in the south west and north.