Impregnable101:
Obi is not winning delta? Most of una go just dey una mumu state dey type wetin una nor know about

Aiel123:

At the peak of Change mantra in 2015,PDP recorded about 40% in Ogun... even last election it still reached 40% but you think getting 25% now is out of place.

CapitalCee:


Guy you must be joking to think PDP+LP will score 80% in Delta. Lol

muykem:
Tinubu will win the election at first ballot forget the noise.

Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

ENGINEERG:
If anyone tells you Peter obi can not win again, tell them he is now sure to win 14 states plus FCT from the 36 states. The states are:
Abia
Ebonyi
Enugu
Imo
Anambra
Edo
Rivers
Cross River
Delta
Akwa ibom
Bayelsa
Benue
Plateau
Taraba
Fct.

The core North that obi won't do well, will be majorly divided by 3 candidates( Tinubu, Atiku and kwanswaso) and obi Will get something too.
South West will still be divided too, whereas South east and South south won't be so divided,and obi will get landslide victory there.

so let no person tell you it's not possible again, its so POssible

KingKO22:
Who is taking this Pandora Obituary serious ?

Election is btw Asiwaju and Atiku


Obituary has no agent's in almost half of the polling units


Abeg. Keep this nonsense poll away.


Asiwaju and Atiku are the only contenders


Obituary is just online president of IPOB

a4cube:
Thought Obi will not get up to 1k votes the whole federation. No structure party going into run off with almighty APC headed by Jagaban? You guys must be joking.

Hopium:


So what's your projection?

CapitalCee:



PDP 45% , APC 35%, LP 20%.

StrongAlphMale:


You said obi will not win Delta and taraba and Ondo? Especially delta?

Haven't you heard the entire SS is on lockdown for PO? Oga, Obi will win Delta by 94% votes.

We no you're a tribal bigot but at least try dey hide small. You're not the only mod on NL. Other mods here don't embarrass themselves like this.

OchukoisBlack:

Oga, I'm in Delta and LP won't win the state. Saturday isn't far off, some people will get more understanding of politics.

Dapagun:
For the first time since the 1960s, there are 3 competitive political blocs largely along the old regional divides.

Hence the latest survey, which was commissioned by @EiENigeria and conducted by @sbmintelligence, did not provide us with a clear front-runner.

The first 2023 election survey conducted by SBM was published in July 2022 and showed that only 41% of registered voters had collected their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs). (IMAGE 1)

This assumption of low turnout fed into our December 2022 projections, based on a 7,000-respondent survey. (Image 2)

The assumption of low turnout changed when, in January 2023, our 6,500-respondent survey on PVC collection showed a remarkable increase in PVC collection - 97%.

We believe that the surge in voter awareness done by
@inecnigeria and CSOs like Enough is Enough (EiE), through their #RSVP Campaign, have driven voter interest and bucked the low turnout trend in #Nigeria's elections.

Many respondents were clear about whom they felt would win the presidential contest in their state but were not straightforward about their candidate preferences. Furthermore, many registered voters told us that ethnicity and religion would play an important part in their choice.

This runs contrary to recent commentary, which suggests that #NigeriaDecides2023 will be #Nigeria’s first post-modern election, where substantial issues will determine voter choice.

The respondents also said that they expect vote buying despite recent technological and legislative changes to curb that. While an overwhelming majority of respondents claim that they won’t sell their vote, more than a third have experienced vote buying in the past.

The data suggest that @PeterObi and @Atiku could garner enough votes over a sufficient number of states across four of the country’s six geopolitical zones to meet the constitutional requirement of scoring 25% in at least 24 states. (Image 3 and 4)

https://twitter.com/sbmintelligence/status/1626597562282307594?t=viYDxVXs5qwPWmu2H6DvIA&s=19

KingKO22:
I swear this election is btw Asiwaju and Atiku

Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

CapitalCee:


PDP got 34% in Ogun state the last time, and that was against Buhari. Not its Asiwaju, he will struggle to get 25% now, remember the igbos and SS that voted him in 2019 have now gone to Obi

Hopium:


I don't know how strong APC is in Delta, all I know was that PDP will win.

My projection was to counter the dude that said LP will get 94%.

KingKO22:
Who is taking this Pandora Obituary serious ?

Election is btw Asiwaju and Atiku


Obituary has no agent's in almost half of the polling units


Abeg. Keep this nonsense poll away.


Asiwaju and Atiku are the only contenders


Obituary is just online president of IPOB

Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano

But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

ENGINEERG:
If anyone tells you Peter obi can not win again, tell them he is now sure to win 14 states plus FCT from the 36 states. The states are:
Abia
Ebonyi
Enugu
Imo
Anambra
Edo
Rivers
Cross River
Delta
Akwa ibom
Bayelsa
Benue
Plateau
Taraba
Fct.

The core North that obi won't do well, will be majorly divided by 3 candidates( Tinubu, Atiku and kwanswaso) and obi Will get something too.
South West will still be divided too, whereas South east and South south won't be so divided,and obi will get landslide victory there.

so let no person tell you it's not possible again, its so POssible

Aiel123:

PDP got 40% in Ogun in 2019, not 34%.

Danniedpastor:

Guy, Obi is winning Delta for sure.
We are voting Obi for presidency and Omo-agege for governorship.

socialmediaman:
We’ve done our own Math, it’s the other way round.

Peter Obi will likely win the highest number of votes when you factor in the expected voter apathy in parts of the country especially among supporters of the ruling party

PO may have a run-off with Tinubu or Atiku depending on how the core North votes

If Peter Obi can pull off 25% in all 5 SW states, or 4/5 and Gombe, he’ll likely be the next president of Nigeria

Mynd44:
Every electoral year, SBM does this.

1. Obi isn't winning Kogi, Ondo, Nassarawa, Delta and Taraba. Not getting 25% in Sokoto, Ogun, Kebbi and Kastina and Oyo

2. Atiku isn't winning Borno, Yobe and Niger. Not getting 25% in Lagos, Ogun, Kogi and Cross River

3. Tinubu isn't winning Kano
But a Tinubu Run-Off with Obi? Stop the count!!!

Dapagun:
Despite this, we modelled for the National Assembly elections, which points to a Senate dominated by the APC and a House of Representatives with the PDP in the majority, leading to potential legislative gridlock in a divided 10th National Assembly. ([b]Image 1)[/b]

The survey has attempted to account for demographics and voting numbers in each zone and their possible turnout to keep the citizenry aware of the issues pertinent to the coming 2023 elections. (Image 2)

It is hoped that this information will help people as well as enable institutional, civic and media stakeholders to make informed decisions that will benefit the future of #Nigeria.

Download the complete report - https:///G66lBDD1I5

We will publish a similar report on the governorship elections in the 28 Nigerian states that select their leaders along with the presidency in the lead-up to those elections in mid-March 2023.

For data wonks, download the working document here - https:///3mCcw7MEOg

CapitalCee:



Please check again

Parachoko:
There will be no rerun

Asiwaju will win convincingly