@husu

husu:

@ father of two,
you' ve been accused of using different identity,on the other thread.what sayeth thou?

the person in question was asked if he was Fo2, since the trading style seemed similar, he denied it, and people have MOVED ON, why are you stoking the embers again??!! 

Atlantic:

Hi All

I got a surprise email from AFRINVEST last week Friday stating that MTN has paid interim dividend for 2008.
As a subscriber to the PP in January 2008, they needed my bank details to credit dividend due to me. (That was one good black news in my red, red, and red potfolio!!!)

The import of my posting here is that MTN and AFRINVEST are pretty much foreign firms, and by any standard paying interim dividend now for investment made third week of January 2008 is quite impressive. Can this happen if MTN or AFRINVEST is a truly Nigerian firm. I doubt it very much. I remember MTN and Chams PPs were out about the same time, any news on Chams??.


I can safely guess that most of us here have done few PPs with wholly Naija companies and have not heard a word in many months. This is another lesson learned for me that, "who is running the company is as important as how much the company will make",

BTW, I do not intend this to be a bashing of Nigeria b/c I love it dearly, but just think we have some ways to go in some basic transparency issues.

note: Afrinvest is a full-fledged NIGERIAN company. If you are so impressed with them, it means we (nigerians) are getting there,

@loma, i c u are online.

pls send me the link at: s_denir at yahoo dot com

thanks

wanaj0:


$10,000 is equal to 1 unit. How many MTN shares are in that unit. No one knows!!!!!

@wanaj0
i suspect you are talking about the afrinvest fund - i asked and was told about  400 MTN units (depends on the exchange rate on the date of implementation) for $10,000, which is approx $25/unit

Windywendy, pls can you upload your brokers prospectus - I'm interested in the future projections. afrinvest's had no earnings projections

crazyT:

@ All (especially parents)


Hi guys, I learnt from you all how important it is to teach your children about trading in stocks at an early age.

So I am planning to call my boys (11 and 8 years respectively) to a round table discussion today about stock market.
Can any one of you help a brother with tips on how to explain stock market to kids?

The idea just hit me now after calculating how much we spend for their birthday presents just last week (about 1200 Euro) The bithday parties (both at home and schools not included) so I was planning to use that as an example and show they what would have happen to the same money had it been it was invested in Capoil or any of the penny stocks.

Or am I going too far

no sir!! you are not going too far. check this website out: http://www.itsahabit.com/about.html

and this article: http://www.fool.com/personal-finance/saving/2007/03/16/teach-your-kids-to-save.aspx

hope they help!!

aktopgun, congrats to you on the birth of Tamilore 'STOCKtopgun' Tobechuckwu. greet madam o

@all

Zenith prospectus available at:
http://www.zenithbank.com/ZenithFullProspectus.pdf

let the analysis begin!!

easimoni:

@ easimoni
WAPIC has 4.2B shares and Crusader appears to be the pick of the insurance companies.

it looks like crusader is about to come to the market for ANOTHER offer:
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2007/09/25/2966027.htm

is it still advisable to go for this stock now, or wait for the offer?

@easimoni
thanx. the nos are so different!!

find attached how i came about my figures. note:
* i assumed that all the figures posted on the NSE website are pre-public offer figures.
* i factored the subscription rate of the POs in my calc

maybe that is where the difference lie.

pls can we compare notes - as in how you came about the figures?

wanaj0:

Dunlop should turn corner next year. However, if the rail system is fixed, it will potentially affect the revenue.

Dunlop at 3.00 is a good stock.

thanx

@easimoni
Standard Alliance = 3.47B
Sovereign Trust = 3.51B

easimoni, other gurus, i'm trying to profile insurance stocks.

abeg can you confirm the ff figures for total shares outstanding (post public offer and rights issues):

cornerstone 8.25
crusader 3.03
wapic 2.25
niger ins 4.66
aiico 5.00
unic 4.36
prestige 1.96
law union 5.23
lasaco 4.97

thanks

peeps, anybody know anything new going on at dunlop?

just saw that the price rallied by 4.88% today. i've been interested in this stock cos of its monopoly in the sector (with exit of michelin) however, its debt situation is terrible,

i'm just thinking, with
* the success of its public offer, raising N9.2bn rather than the projected N5.5bn (http://www.dunlopng.com/subscription.html)
* revenues from the new ASRT factory being reflected this year.

has dunlop turned the corner (i don't want to miss another wapco!! )??

ah! big jump from 75m to 450m  
IF they repeat this feat on the FY,  then an eps of 33k may be conservative

i get the drift,  thanks a lot Temmie10

@wanaj0
it appears that no coy was acquired by mbenefit (http://www.tribune.com.ng/22082007/insurance2.html) and the foreign investors' stake was from warehoused shares (windywendy @ https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-52566.224.html)

easimoni:

@ Shig,
I pretty sure M Benefit has only 5.911B shares. This time last yr, they had 2.122B shares. I've doubled checked with the SEC website and no new M Benefit shares have been requested or alloted.

easimoni and shigidi, whats up with mbenefits? with 5.9bn shares and 0.45bn half-year PAT, forward eps looks to me to be about 169k (based on FY PAT of N1bn) and projected price of N3.38 (based on a pe of 20). At the current price of N3.15, this doesnt look too attractive.

or is there something i am missing?

hey, crazyT, do you have any info on Dunlop? i'm interested in the stock - is your recommendation based on fundamentals, market sentiment or some news from the grapevine?

Ha! at last, a thread on Skye - i was thinking of starting one up

for starters, the prospectus can be found at:
http://www.skyebankng.com/uploaded_files/Prospectus.pdf

looking at the forecast offer statistics (pp 21), it seems that they are looking at paying out massive dividends of N19.72, 23.79, 28.28 per unit of N100 in 2007 (yes, this financial year!!), 2008 and 2009 !! This looks very attractive to me - it means that if i invest N100k and buy 1000 units, i'll get a dividend of N19k by the end of this financial year - Dec 2007!! And in 18months, after year end of dec 2008, i should get a total dividend of over N43k (19.72k + 23.79k) i.e. i get back almost half of the funds i invested, while still havine the same number (1000) of units!!  

Is this realistic or too optimistic? when is the offer money going to get to Skye; will it do so much work for a N19.72 dividend to be paid THIS financial year? or is there something i'm missing?

over to you gurus - frankiriri, easimoni, windywendy et al - help us out here

egoldman:

Wanaj0 , so its now mandatory tech suspension will be lifted on any stock two weeks from the end of its public offer ? this info is very important to me .

2 weeks from filing of returns by stockbokers i.e. about 4 weeks after end of public offer

babaife:

thanks lifeman
am a certified professional accountant interested in ensuring that young entrepreneurs don't lose their hard earned fund.

regards. i will continue with the topic tomorrow

God bless you my brother!! Abeg use Access Bank financial stm as Case Study.
http://www.accessbankplc.com/downloads/Prospectus.pdf

yodiyokun:

I never really liked access bank - simply because the mgt are cut throat guys and believe me I know what im yarning. Was in the Banking industry for over 7 years.

I actually thot the boys at the top had plans for that Bank , but so far I have not seen any outstanding performance - all na talk. Things might change but I wont be buying Access.

olofinjeje:

yodiyokun-I have moral issues with the whole access bank financial statement and have done so since my dear friends took over.

na wa o!

you guys shld shed more light!: 'not seen any outstanding performance - all na talk'?? for novices like me, the financial stm looks good. can you PLEASE expantiate??

'I have moral issues with the whole access bank financial statement ' - are they pulling the wool over our eyes? pls give concrete details.

steeviee:

stock gurus, what do you guys think about firstinland bank?

looks like firstinland is looking for a merger!! check this out:
http://www.businessdayonline.com/?c=54&a=15067

Temmie10:

While i appreciate your calculation which is eye opening, u need to realise that Finance is not mathematics. 125% oversubscription does not mean PBT * 5 of 25% oversubscription. And u can be sure that if FBN indeed has 125% oversubscription, the PBT will be very diff from what u have calculated.

Nigerian banks are in a struggle where only the most profitable will survive. some will be swallowed, some wil be swallowers, it is now up to the management of FBN to decide how to flex muscle in the light of whatever is the exact fiure of the oversubscription. What they do will determine price but by me, FBN is a definite HOLD and as a matter of fact, BUY when the price becomes affordable again (probably after this rally cools down). If there is one bank whose share price can reach the 1 dollar mark in the future, this is it.

Oops! Kindly read the analysis before responding!! I never said that '125% oversubscription [means] PBT * 5 of 25% oversubscription'!!  

Agreed that finance is not maths, but we can use maths to make sense of finance. Otherwise no need for fundamental analysis!! I just used estimated the risk-free return (assumed to be 10%) on the amt of over-oversubscription (the N375bn over the 25% oversubscription included in FBN's prospectus) to estimate the worst-case scenario future value of FBN shares and will like gurus (read: accountants/people with knowledge of finance) to provide a critique.

You r right, though, FBN is the big one, but for me, EPS is king, not shareholders funds or PAT

Another scenario for the gurus in the house, this time with First Bank:

Assuming the bank absorbs N500bn from the recent offer, coupled with the 1 to 6 bonus, and has a total of ~27.5bn shares outstanding, what is the attractiveness of this stock going forward? Here is an amateurish ‘back-of-the-envelope’ hypothesis:

• Expected 2008 PBT assuming 25% oversubscription N35.4bn (FBN full prospectus pp13)
          to be generated from N125bn from offer (125% subscription) + N76.8bn from current shareholder funds
• This leaves a balance of N375bn (500bn-125bn) from public offer
• Assuming a worst case scenario, if N375bn is invested at a conservative (?) rate of 10%pa (e.g. by making deposits like NNPC and other govt parastatals in smaller banks - is this possible??), it yields N37.5bn/year
• Assuming it takes 6months into FBN’s financial year for CBN/SEC et al to vet the funds, yield drops to 0.5*N37.5bn = N18.75bn in the 2008 earnings

• Hence, if the above assumptions hold, consolidated PBT is N35.4bn + N18.75bn = N54.15bn and PAT is N42.78bn (assuming 21% rate used in FBN prospectus)

• This further yields an adjusted EPS of N1.56 (based on 27.5bn shares) and a fair price of N31.11 (assuming a P/E of 20)

Implication: based on this worst case scenario, those of us that bought into the offer@N33 need to have >1 year investment horizon to benefit from capital appreciation (except the hype continues and P/E's >30 is still the norm)
Now to the gurus in d house,
• Have I missed something out?
• Is the assumption of getting a MINIMUM of 10% return on the N375bn ‘balance’ of the offer reasonable?

@windywendy

thanks for not giving me fish but teaching me how to fish,

@WindyWendy

the N2.12bn is the extraordinary item charged against profits for 2006, so I added it to the reported figure of N0.74bn, abi??
the N2.052 is subtracted was the Proceeds from disposal of long term investments

pls find below the link to the full prospectus:
http://www.accessbankplc.com/downloads/Prospectus.pdf

thanks a lot

Pls gurus esp accountants/auditors help me out here on Access Bank – I intend to buy a lot for the medium term, I have been trying to do some 'fundamental analysis' but have near-zero accounting skills:

• Exceptional item of N2.12bn was charged against 2006 profits (page 58 of full prospectus). 

• Also, frankiriri mentioned cashflow in another thread and I looked this up in the prospectus and found (Investing activities, page 59): Proceeds from disposal of long term investments +N2,052M (2007); +N25M (2006)


                        2006 2007 %change
Published  PAT (Nbn) 0.74 6.084     725%
Extraordinary items       2.12 (2.052)
                                   0.025
Adjusted PAT:        2.882 4.032       40%

Adjusted PAT of 40% (rather than the advertised 725%) still looks ok for me but i want to know if this a correct reading, or am I just being paranoid