KarlTom:

Dem dey type am as if we get one meeting wey we dey share acronyms

sky2891:

@nosa2, Please, what's your fair value for GTB?
@currentprice copied.

Over N200.

ROE is currently 68% (Highest in the industry, if not the entire market)

PE is 2.41

Forward PE is 0.71

These numbers are after totally discounting any fx gains.

This bank is probably worth N400 but I will start taking profit at N200.


I HAVE NEVER SEEN A STOCK THIS CHEAP. EVER!!!!

Only down side i can see is the high Book Value

Streetinvestor2:
.What is your present BE

Guy, I no dey understand all these acronyms

Finally fully loaded up on GTB. Let the ride begin

Ginalex:
Hello sir. I wouldn't mind you adding to his recommendations

Read these ones first. if you feel you need to educate yourself more then you can ask for more.

I don't typically like having these discussions because most Nigerians just like to gather books and not read them.

Ginalex:
Sorry to disturb you again. Please which of them is the right one to buy?

I own the red one but they are both the same book. Just different editions.

If you are serious about this then add

Hot commodities and investment biker by Jim rodgers

Ginalex:
Good Afternoon my ogas. Please what study materials/courses would you recommend that can help me improve in the art stock valuation? I believe there's a lot I can achieve in the remaining half of this year and beyond if I'm armed with this skill... Please help a baby in the industry trying to find her footing. Thank you

Intelligent investor

One up on wall street

Heishere:


In terms of dividend yield GTB is overpriced.

I've always wondered why people love dividends so much. You get charged 10% for taking profits on your own company profit. I wonder why Nigerian companies dont do share buyback schemes.

currentprice:


hmmm gtb fv is something else my bro. best of the best so far.. zenith no near, i expect more price widen

my opinion

Too much of a good thing is a great thing.

bovali:

I have an exposure of 90k usd in the S&P 500 index. I split my assets 60/40 between Naira and dollar. So everytime I get some funds I just convert to usd and add to the s&p500. There’s an options model I use to help time entries better and it’s been 85% accurate so far

All these big big numbers wey una dey quote dey intimidating oh. Me with my N10,000 portfolio wetin I go do?

Raider76:


Recapitalization makes short to medium term outlook for banking stocks hazy. While the picture of the way the exercise is going to take place is clearing the post recapitalization issues such as dilution effects are difficult to predict.

This fear is irrational. You are buying the business as it stands. And as it stands its a very good company selling at a ridiculously cheap price.

Mankind2024:
@Veterans Nosa2, you can't quit VFDGROUP! This group is destined for success. I haven't seen clearer or better financial reports from any listed company than VFDGROUP's. Be like a farmer - a seed planted in VFDGROUP may surely yield a bountiful harvest. Unlike some listed companies where the winner takes all, VFDGROUP's objective seems to prioritize investors' interests in their plans, indicating a more inclusive and sustainable approach to business.
They surely had a bad 2023 for the first time in their history.

Given the current market environment, VFD group is well priced at best. There is no bargain there

Just did the numbers for VFD group and the EPS printed for Q1 is wrong. They printed N10.34 but the actual number is N2.07.

I just lost money on FCMB because of this sort of misleading numbers. I'm not doing it again.

bovali:
I think I'm gonna be posting a snapshot of my portfolio at the start of each quarter cause that was the second b2b quarter of 40%+ returns. Also because streetinvestor is always mocking me for not dropping advise. That being said, i will never recommend anyone to invest in what i don't have stake in. DD advised as always.
Side note: I'm still upcoming so don't laugh at my portfolio. I have 45m in cash that i will use to average down if needed.

You dont have GTB? you need to look into it oh. Probably the cheapest stock on the NSE right now

ositadima1:
This Oando situation reminds me of the mid-90s when Nigeria's team featured the likes of Okocha and Nwankwo Kanu. If Nigeria scored, everyone would say, "Nigeria is supposed to win; they have good players." When they started losing, people would say, "Don't worry, they will equalize." But at the end of the day, Nigeria would be knocked out of the tournament, leaving fans in tears. I'm not saying that you will shed tears o, but this incessant cho cho about Oando is getting boring.

Abeg I am trying to understand why people are bullish on this coy. They made a loss in their latest result. Cost of sales is higher than revenue. Administrative expenses oh, finance cost oh, all are looking very bloody.

Once again, abeg wetin una dey see for this one?

vacanci:


June inflation would have signalled what you said but i am thinking the cost of Rams, Cows and Donkeys alone during the sallah period and the spike in cost of Pepper and beans and tomatoes this month alone will make food inflation higher than previous month. Unless if you never buy beans and pepper recently. Even Groundnut oil and roasted groundnut don spike for June. cassava flour (not garri o) and akpu that people were rushing as food for common man got doubled in price. As for akpu the amount is still N100 but it has been sliced into tiny circle which is just enough to swallow 3 times.

Omo by the time new minimum wage is announced for the less than 1% government workers, the market will further react to punish the remaining 99%.

Na hyper inflation me i dey see for now

And in a hyper inflation environment stocks do well. The dollar may do better thou

bovali:


If they raise dollar for expansion, is it Naira they will use to buy the banks in other countries? Why do you think they said don’t pay any profit from dollar revaluation gains? A lot of these banks are still sitting on usd. And the revenue they make in other countries is repatriated in usd

Fair points.

unite4real:


You didn't factor in the coupon payments for the period.

No need to add insult to injury.

ositadima1:


They issued a $500 million senior unsecured Eurobond in September 2021.
Here's a breakdown of the Eurobond:
* Issue size: $500 million
* Maturity: September 2026
* Interest rate: 6.125%
* Use of proceeds: General banking purposes.

They also issued a USD50 million green bond in 2022. This bond matures in 2027 and they are both listed on the London Stock Exchange.

Wow!!! in 2021 USD was like 475 in parallel market. Using this, they got about N237b and they are paying back N750b.

Good luck to them and their household.

Thanks for this

BabsO2:


Access has also been growing on the back of additional Tier 1 capital raised in USD to fund it's aggressive African expansion. If the expansion falters shareholders will pay for it using NGN. If the expansion succeeds the USD Tier 1 capital instrument holders will get the bulk of profits through coupon payments on the USD instrument. That means NGN shareholders have a big exposure to potential FX costs and losses if the African expansion falters, while having a probable upside should the African expansion generate returns above the coupon payments for the Tier 1 Capital instrument holders.

Going forward - One needs to monitor the contributions of the African expansion - if it is far above the cost of funds used to procure the expansion. If it isn't, the share price will not appreciate much.

Please when did they raise this capital? I've not been looking at the Nigerian markets

Streetinvestor2:
I sm seeing what you are seeing. I am seeing it in uba,zenith and gtb because of the management team.
Fbn has had bad management for years now

Book value is 53. No over look that Elephant oh

Streetinvestor2:
Na this man go bury fbn.Na inside loan be his target.Then they will write it off as bad loan.

If this was his plan he would have targeted a less iconic bank. I believe he sees what I see. These banks are trading at price levels that will not be seen again in our generation. How everyone is not seeing this is beyond me.

bovali:
Someone should help me understand something. This Beta glass. They are paying dividend of 1.4 naira this Thursday but they have 50 billion in retained earnings while the market cap is 34.8 billion. Our market sha

You're right. The company seems to have a history of having savings rate

bovali:
Someone should help me understand something. This Beta glass. They are paying dividend of 1.4 naira this Thursday but they have 50 billion in retained earnings while the market cap is 34.8 billion. Our market sha

Will look into this and revert

mendes911:


"You will regret this".

You think Banks are over valued?

Mfunkynation:

so it means there's a GOLD to be PULL before JAing

In my opinion, YES!!

NettyNelly:


I like to know how you calculated this EPS - FX gains to arrive at PE of 2

As at when I made this post I hadn't done the calculations. However having done the calculations the quality of bank earnings vary wildly, so the calculations were certainly worth doing.

To help you on your path, simply look through the relevant result and subtract FX gains, typically found in other income, from the quoted profit and use that in your calculations.

P.s before you ask me what my numbers were, don't! I believe doing the calculations give me a competitive advantage and until I have finished buying it is not in my interest to divulge my result.

bovali:

I got it from you lol

LOL seen. They should have stated though. its very misleading, even the notes of the report don't state it.

I guess its annualised but we are assuming

bovali:


1.45 * 4 = 5.8 though. So it’s probably annualised

Where did you get 1.45 from?

based on the numbers, Q1 eps should be N1.7. or am I missing something?

Laso09:


They probably annualized the earning.

That's even worse. Is it legal to do that?

I've looked through the report and it is not stated anywhere.

Plus, if you do the maths and multiply by 4 you get a different number. I think this was just a very stupid mistake

I'm looking at FCMB Q1 2024 result and the published EPS is not making sense. The maths is not mathing. If one divides the profit by outstanding shares the number is approx. 1.45 as against the 5.8 they published.

Abeg can someone else cross check this?

I don't want to believe they will make such an error

Profit attributable to equity holders (N'000) 28,770,276

Weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue ('000) 19,802,710

EPS 5.81


These published numbers dont add up.

Please did they do a conference call?

robobo:




Oga Agba let me play the devil advocate on the fundamental part of your above thesis (i would leave the technical side to the in house expert like BullBearMarket and others)

Considering that the FX gain are baked in this year (just like last year also, i.e. two year running now) and that the regulator is not allowing distribution from it, do you think those gains would be idle in the books / operations of the banks. E.g would the about a trillion FX gain by UBA (2023&2024 inclusive) be lying down idle (considering its not allowed to be distributed) or it would be employed for further gain like all other capital in its arsenal. if employed for further gain wont that be impacting the bottomline going forward? let assume at current risk free rate of at least 20% as is currently isn't that an extra 200billion impacting the bottom-line going forward for UBA as an example (it would be practically the same for all other banks)?.

Exactly. Plus I am calculating EPS minus FX gains and we are looking at PE ratios of about 2. That's still bleeding cheap