Nobody is underrating Okowa reason I'm not giving LP 70% win like some people do. You should know that Ibori was the one who gave Delta South the electoral value they are currently enjoying and with the crisis rocking the party at the state level, it would be naive to think anyone controls the creek votes. Up till this very moment, no single Ijaw bigwigs have endorsed PDP, note one! They are all mute and with the new electoral laws, I'm believing some things won't be as usual.
So when you consider these factors plus the wide acceptance of LP, it only makes sense to conclude that they would win albeit with a close margin. Even if PDP miraculously wins, the margin would be meaningless.
Wanted to mention Wamakko, that man is doing lots of Damage to PDP in Sokoto. Ganduje is a strong ally to Bat and El-Rufai is one of the few actor in the region whose support for BAT is unwavering.
Not true sir, am from Delta State and I can confirm Senator James Manager of Ijaw/Delta South has been currently involve in the PDP presidential campaign !
Workch: You are the neophyte that cannot decipher the dynamics and current trends. You are stock in 2019. A good political analyst is dynamic and uses insights from current trends to make informed decisions in combination with historical facts. You views are limited to historical facts alone and it doesn't work that way
Had this particular election held in 2019, Obi will lose before 12noon, but now? He has a chance. You aren't smart enough to analyze it
You are overrating Atiku and Tinubu purely based on history and not the current trend
Workch: Governors can help you win primaries but they cannot help you win the general election if you are not popular in that region, especially with BVAS.
Governors didn't help Tinubu in the primaries, he paid himself into winning via the governors. It's hard to do that on a large scale during thr main election
LP doesn't need 60% southwest to win. LP only needs to get 25% from all southwest states to win.
Never you think that any Northern governor is with Tinubu for free and fairness, are you a learner in politics?
You talk like a neophyte in politic ! who tells you governors does not matter ? Do you know how how many people depend directly/indirectly from the governor for their daily bread ? governors have thousands of political appointee whom have family and well wishers !
A united opposition would have trashed APc by a wide margin. I mean a very wide margin. Maybe with a win of over 65%.
LP has done huge damages to whatever PDP would get in SE, SS and SW (Lagos especially, PDP is well rooted in other SW states and they might secure some numbers but protestant south Western votes will go to LP).
It's a fact that the cabals are not on BAT's side. Infact, his saving grace in Northern Nigeria (NW & NE) are the northern governors who are not only a close ally but fighting to get their hands on the presidential seat in the next 8years. They singlehandedly rescued BAT during the primaries and dished the cabals. Unless they betray BAT, it would be ignorant to write him off.
LP would need to get atleast 60% of SW votes and win SS with a huge margin (personally, I don't think any SS states would give bloc votes) for them to win. I'm impressed with LP's penetration of NC.
2023 was/is PDP's chance to regain power if only LP, NNPC and the G5 weren't in factor.
garfield1
You sabi politics ! From what I know, either Atiku/Tinubu would carry the day, depending on whose vote was damage most by Obi !
Atiku as a candidate has very little enthusiasm, even in the north. No way he is going to win the elctions with such low personal enthusiam.
This is the man that lost his polling unit, almost lost his state and lost woefully in the north in the last elections. Most people who voted for Atiku in the last elections(mostly in the south) actullay voted against Buhari rather than for Atiku( some persons even voted Atiku cos of Obi then and not cos of Atiku himself).
Thank you, Obi has already won the North. Hope you are happy now !
Except Kwankwaso steps down for Atiku, Atiku is not in prime position to winning the elections
Workch: I agree with almost everything except the aspect where you said Kwankwaso will collapse his structure and Tinubu has a huge stake in NC. It's too late for Kwankwaso to collapse his structure and he's certainly going to steal votes from Atiku in thr north. The north is not politically sophisticated, that's a wrong assertion, the north people are gullible and not sophisticated hence they can be easily used by their elites.
Tinubu is not a strong contender in NC because he's only popular in Niger, Kogi and kwara, these states have the least voting figures in NC. None of them have up to 2million PVCs in INEC register. Atiku will also be there to make life uncomfortable for him. The big boys of NC are plateau, Benue and Nasarawa. I am sure Obi will take Benue and plateau
.
I disagree with you on North Central, remember I said Obi will do well in North Central, but I don't see him winning a single state there. Not even Benue and Plateau as you put it. Obi's vote in those areas would be what I call Christian sympathy vote. The strong presence of APC/PDP there would be too strong for him to dismantle. This is real politics. As for Kwankwaso, the power brokers of the North would strike a deal with him. Remember how Tambuwal combined with Atiku to defeat Wike. The Northerners are very smart when it comes to politics, I have lived with them and I understand them to a reasonable extent !
Workch: If you ask me, I cannot underrate Atiku but you see Tinubu? He's going no where. All odds are against him.
I appreciate your understanding. The Northerners are very political sophisticated compared to the South. I don't see Kwankwanso competing with Atiku in the North, he might likely collapse his structure in to Atiku. Remember Atiku is yet to campaign in Kano and Jigawa state (which were both formerly Kano state). Atiku would win the north east but not likely to win Yobe and Bornu due to Shettima factor. Atiku is most likely to win the North West but Kwankwanso would be a factor there. The North Central is a swing between Atiku and Tinubu as Tinubu may win Kogi and Kwara, Obi definitely will get votes from North Central, however his vote would not be enough to defeat Atiku/Tinubu there. In the South West Tinubu would definitely win it, However Obi would give him a serious challenge in Lagos. Overall Atiku would come second in the West. In South South where I come from, it will be a battle between Atiku and Obi, but I think Atiku would defeat Obi there due to the endemic PDP structure there. Tinubu would get his 25% from states like Edo, Delta, and may be Cross River. In the South East Obi has the upper hand, however his lack of party chieftain (seasoned politicians) there would limit him. The governors/top politicians in South East are not with Obi and they would fight him tooth and nail to remain politically relevant post 2023. It will be a battle for political survival for the political gladiators in the south east. At worst Atiku comes second in the south east. Overall, in my honest opinion the odds favour Atiku as he is most likely to win the North and then penetrate the south reasonably.
mrvitalis: While this is insulting but I would keep my cool
When it was universally agreed that it was turn of the south east PDP didn't deem it necessary to zone the presidency to south east ....is it after Atiku presidency that they would zone it ? ...won't tambuwal want the presidency for his loyalty ?
As assume by miracle Igbo man wins PDP ticket ... would that translate to votes from north ? If voting shagari ,yaradua and even Atiku yet northerners ( Hausa/Fulani) still dislike Igbos is it an Atiku presidency that would change that
What would happen if PDP zones their ticket to south east n APC zones it's ticket to north west . and Vice to south west . Would the north still vote PDP ?
Obi is Igbo chance of presidency , the reason Atiku n Tinubu are taking this Igbo useless politicians and making them promise is Obi ..if obi was not in the race they have already excluded south east from 2023 calculations
There is no logical reasoning for south east to support Atiku over obi,.....zero
Under current political permutation, Obi can not win. It would be too risky for any opposition party to choose their presidential candidate based on tribal emotions. The reality before the PDP as an opposition party at the moment is to choose Atiku as its presidential candidate. Politics is science and not emotions. The primary aim of a political party is to win election !
BSdetective: Most folks on the first page where probably born after 1990......lol, folks thinking fayemi will decamp from APC😂🤡, the person obidients should be worried about is Obasanjo.
onez: Read the mood of the nation. The youths are tired. The hardship and suffering are enormous. Only an Omowale Peter Obi will calm nerves and bring hope. We are restarting this country. The choice is yours to be part of new Nigeria or not. Our votes will count. We will speak through the ballot and no POWER will overturn our votes.
Obi doesn't need to campaign in NE and NW, it's a waste of resources.
There are already 3 strong contenders in these two regions, Peter campaigning there won't make any difference. Atiku, Kwankwaso and Tinubu would so divide these two regions that nobody would get what Buhari got there.
That's why kwankwaso must remain in the race. NC is there to give Peter Obi Northern votes. While he sweeps the SE, SS and very tangible amount of votes from SW.
Obi will win.
Obi win North Central ? hahahahahaha ! deceive yourself !
drlateef: Obi supporters are churning out fake poll results while not encouraging the cold- footed Obi to move into the core north for his campaign. How exactly is he going to win? The “K” states in the core north as well as Lagos hold the ace for any winner in this election. Obi keeps thinking he can work out a miracle without visiting the core north for hos presidential campaign. The question is: why is Obi afraid of taking his campaign to the core north? What exactly is the shadow that he is running away from? With the large crowds that Tinubu is gathering everyday in the north, does Obi think SS and SE will be enough for him to win this election? That may sound like a mirage based on available voter statistics.
This has been my honest observation ! I don't know why Obi is scared of campaigning in the the core North !
OsunOriginal: Imagine Tinubu wins the coming election (which is most likely), barring no unforeseen circumstances, he will be in Aso Rock for 8 years. By the end of 8 years, some of the contenders today (e.g. Atiku) would have joined the list of politically irrelevant people in the country as he will be over 80 years by that time. No party will present him again. That leaves the race for the next president of northern origin to the likes of Shettima, El-Rufai, Tambuwa, Zulu, etc. With a northern president ruling for another 8 years, the next time a southerner can have an opportunity to be in Aso rock is 2039. By that time, Peter Obi will be 78 years old, ruling him out of the contest.
Obi, Atiku, etc are having their last and final shot at the presidency in 2023. If they fail, they should just retire from politics.
Very smart analysis ! The best chances for Obi would have been to support Atiku/PDP, and after 8 years he would then leverage on PDP/Atiku structure to have a good shot at the presidency. As it Stands, Obi definitely cannot win 2023. Obi's presence in the race would propel Tinubu to victory and likely cause Atiku to loose out. Should Tinubu win, It will likely take another 16 years for another president of Southern origin to emerge.
Nwaetche: Obi will win Bayelsa state with Atiku coming second. Bat will struggle to get even 25% and feelers are that the Ijaw nation will repay BAT in his own coin.
Dailyhappenings: The presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi was recognized at the Experience music event in Lagos State. This moment created alot of excitement in the crowd as his name was announced
I'm supporting Obi because that is the embodiment of equity,fairness and sense of belonging..
How can a fulani core northern man rule Nigeria for 8 years where we witness so much hardship and reckless killing by fulani herdsmen and oppression from the north ,bad economy etc hand over to another fulani northrrn man again?
If Obi isn't contesting to be president,I would v suppported bola tinubu even tho I know he is not going to be the president we desire but there must be respect and equity.
The north wants to keep keeping power but do nothing progressive with it.
We v witnessed so much retrogression in Nigeria courtesy of the northern misrule from military and now this....
After atiku,they will also want to keep it and hand over to tambuwal. That's their style.. In all the national exams,the north comes last so what happens to progress ? U come last yet u want to always lead those that come first? Where does such arrangements bring progress? The south simply wants rotational so everyone v a sense of belonging and that is the meaning of a country. U want to head every agency and u wonder why Nigeria is going down every day? Naira is fast becoming the most useless currency from 180 naira in 2015 that a southerner was president and now it's going above 800 naira. There was recession during gej presidency about twice but we didn't feel it because of the soundness of his economic team. Adeshina,ngozi okonjo iweala, segun aganga etc..
Can u compare these people with what we v now as ministers? Never!!!
Thanks to amaechi as minister. I wish we v people like amaechi,fashola,Obi,adeshina,iweala,kwakwanso( good but needs to wait till after 8 years) , marwa that is now in NDLEA fighting drug barons contesting.. marwa should also wait for the next 8 years because now power is coming to the south .
As it stands, Obi is the best option.. Not that Obi is the best that Nigeria could v offer but within those contesting, Obi is the best and all those that want to see Nigeria work for all Nigerians and not a lopsided Nigeria where some certain people feel they should own everything, Obi is the answer.
Obi has votes lockdown in
South south 90% South East 92% South West 47%
Lagos and Abuja 75%
North Central 60%
Southern Kaduna 60%
Taraba 80% ( don't forget that Taraba,benue and some parts of Kogi used to be Eastern Nigeria before 1963)
Kogi 45%
Plateau 80%
Southern Bauchi 75%
Southern Gombe 65%
Southern borno 30%
Igbos are the 2nd largest spread across all states in Nigeria so expect larger votes even in core states that people don't give obi any chance.
Educated and enlightened Nigerians that want the country to work are voting Obi.
Abroad Nigerians are voting Obi
Our celebraties are voting Obi
Other African leaders and presidents that understand that Nigeria needs to stand and take the lead are supporting Obi for the sake of African growth.
It's about Nigeria survival and not any bodies turn.
Who even made it their turn?
A very dangerous precedence ... More like what we saw in the military..
We want a president and not a presidency..
As aspirant,u r contesting to be a president,u r not contest to be a " presidency" .. we want a president and not a presidency.... We don't want to be lead by a cartel headed by a demanted figure head.
Period.
These people in public offices today v cheated the Nigerian masses in this life and in the after life. They r busy cornering every wealth to themselves . They v already sold their souls to the devil and hence,ready to perish in hell so they want to v a full blast enjoyment on earth with our common wealth leaving the masses to perish. After life, they v subjected Nigerians to that point where the masses find it difficult to live an upright life hence making heaven becomes so difficult,to survive as a Nigerian,u need to lie about age, cut corners etc to sustain in ur job so u r on ur way to hell too (God forbids)
Before u graduate, employment age has left u n u r left to start refiving ur age.
Jobs in government are being sold to the highest bidders do even as a jobless youth,u need to hustle money anyhow to get ur employment letter. U could steal.. u could do yahoo yahoo. Yhe chain continues.. They made the system in such a way u may not be able to escape. Pure wickedness. In this hardship,they live in excessive luxury and comfort ..they v all the dollars to merry round the world with out a blink. They can afford anything. Politics now is most profitable business. How money is shared n not made.
Take back ur country...
Vote obi
Vote wisely
Afenifere are truth speakers.. They Support Obi
Big joke ! Obi will come a distant third ! a neophyte in politics knows this !
Politics / Re: Wike: PDP NWC Is Involved In Anti-party Activities, I Will Hit Back by Onovo3: 9:18pm On Jan 30, 2023 
Mumu people