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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 7:28pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
Chibuking81: U are welcome back home dear. ...u know, there's no place like home as they say !! Regards 6 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 7:32pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
Coolcash1: Everything will reverse. Brent will trade higher. NSE will fire up. And we go all dey alright. 9 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by thebargainhunte: 7:33pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
Mcy56: Hahaha aka deepsuk 3 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by thebargainhunte: 7:35pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
RabbiDoracle: Sir... Your spirit is there. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 7:35pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
onegentleguy: And people were having concerns with Q1 2020. We told them no concerns. Q2 is where the hurdle is. We are now in the season where any bad result will even result to full bid. Just like in 2018 to 2019 where any good result will result to full offer. 5 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Coolcash1: 7:37pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
RabbiDoracle: That's the prayer. So that we can all be laughing to the bank.... |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 7:38pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
Tvegas: Na heartache the person dey invite be that. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 7:41pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
Thinkbigga: In the Safari, the elephant is naturally a slow moving animal. But once it is charged, you can't stop it. So leave the animal to be feeding fat first. Once it finishes and it sees others banks running faster, it will be charged. 3 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 7:46pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
onegentleguy: RabbiDoracle: Absolutely !! ...even in Q2, there will still be a few select coys that will WIN !!(see post above) As with every event, there'll be WINNERS and there'll also be LOSERS. Our concern is to seek for VALUE along the line. Regards 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:48pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
BAMOFIN1: If you know python you can implement it using selenium and some other web scraping modules. You can code it to run on top online platforms like Morgan Capital. Assuming it is not popular on NSE you can have am advantage sha. I am currently learning candlesticks patterns and after that some other TA tools. When I am through I might try to write some code to automate trades. 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 7:49pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
Bomboclad: ASI needs to break 24K first. Banks and some big caps will assist it. After that, there will be the next hurdle to climb. Market has taken off and may not fall as others expect. 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 7:53pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
veecovee: Banks lend to Breweries na. So why do you buy banks? 6 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by PharmAlfred: 8:02pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
FBNH will get close to UBA soon. The banks efficiency has improved. It should be close to N6 on the back of it's improved result. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 8:04pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
RabbiDoracle: On the part in bold; because then, he can assume he is buying into brewery coys INDIRECTLY and not DIRECTLY !! ...don't mind pastor VCV. He seems to forget that most business sectors usually have an interchange of play in one way or the other. It is well. 3 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 8:07pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
PharmAlfred: ...and by then UBA shall be trading @ between N8-10. No doubt, FBNH has improved a lot in their Nos, considering where they are coming from, but them still no be mate with UBA !! U should know naw. Regards 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 8:20pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
onegentleguy: Webinar by IMF, this morning. Key takeaways are as follows: General Outlook 1. Africa seems to be supressing the curve so far. It looks like it might escape the worst of the pandemic, but will have to be cautious about it. 2. Possibility of W Curve – i.e. There is a good chance of re-occurrence of the virus, which could see a possibility of regular lockdowns. Businesses need to plan accordingly. 3. Capital will look for countries that are less battered. Western economies are badly battered while countries in Africa, etc are not so battered. Global Capital could flow there, if we can act efficiently to pull it. 4. Emotional and Economic backlash against China is expected. Already, countries and companies are working on strategy to pivot away from China as part of their supply chains. Japan Govt has announced packages for it’s companies bringing back manufacturing home. Businesses need to keep this in mind and work accordingly. Discretionary Spending. 1. For individuals, health and safety will become No.1 on their agenda from the 3rd of 4th place. There will be more spending on this area and reduction in other discretionary spends. 2. The ticket size of spending will drop for a while. People will spend on cheaper goods than on expensive goods, or delay spending for a while. 3. Extreme acceleration in digital economy. I.e. Home education, home entertainment, home fitness, etc 4. Loyalty shock. People will be less loyal towards brands as other aspects will take over. People will switch brands faster due to various other concerns like safety, etc. 5. General Trust deficit. There will be trust deficit amongst stakeholders like vendors, customers, employees, borrowers, banks, etc. Banks will have trust deficit with borrowers, companies will have trust deficit with suppliers, etc. Liquidity and P&L 1. Segregate Good Costs and Bad Costs a. Good costs (Eg. Digitization, tech costs, digital marketing, best employees, etc) need to be insulated and protected b. Bad Costs (Eg. Fancy office, unnecessary spending, bad performers, traditional working methods) need to be ruthlessly eliminated. Don’t be emotional about non-core businesses. Concentrate on core business. 2. Be Frugal – Not necessary to have fancy office, fancy cars, excess employee strength, etc. Remove all the flab and be lean. 3. Maintain Good behaviour – have frank and open conversation with all stakeholders like suppliers, employees, etc and try to find the middle ground, so that the burden can be shared justly. 4. Be Future Ready – In this crisis, there will be winners and there will be losers. Those who re-orient their strategy will be winners. Govt Stimulus. 1. Economy was in poor shape even before Covid. The govt has little leeway to provide large stimulus. 2. Govt earns alot from taxes, with losses experiences how will this be pushed up? 3. Inequality has already sharpened. The gap between rich and poor has further increased. Govt needs to concentrate on mass health and mass welfare. If not, 40 million people could sink into poverty. 4. Govt must explore printing currency (Quantitative easing), but there are limitations here. It has side effects like inflation, etc. Rich countries have more leeway for such quantitative easing. 5. Govt must concentrate on grabbing more capital from outside and do reforms to enable that. Result of backlash against China 1. Internationally, there could be an emotional and economic backlash against China. 2. Businesses with supply chains passing through China will need to keep this in mind and insulate themselves and build alternatives. 3. Africa and african businesses need to try to become the contract manufacturer of the world, just like China is. They need to make use of this opportunity smartly. 4. All big wealth funds and soverign funds will be awash with Liquidity. This liquidity needs to be attracted. 5. In every sector, there are good and bad companies. Management has to invest correctly in manufacturing and modern tech, be honest and fair to all stakeholders, etc., Those companies with good management and displaying good behaviour will come out victorious. Export Business 1. African exporters need to build trust. They need live up to promises made. They need to deliver on time and deliver the promised quality. They shouldn’t make incorrect promises just to get more business. 2. Asian export business has built trust and a good reputation. Despite a chequered past (low quality, human rights issues, etc) they have managed to overcome and are winning. Wholesale, Retail, etc. 1. More people will prefer to buy from retail stores where there is perception of safety (Eg. Sanitation, cleanliness, crowds, etc). They will move more towards malls away from markets. Many will move towards online stores. Wholesale suppliers also need to concentrate on such retailers. 2. Customers also need to be ringfenced: a. A high end restaurants need to give high percentage of bill value as gift coupons to be used anytime upto December 2020. b. Car companies and mortgages should give buy back offers, incase the customer loses his job in the next one year. 3. Pricing needs to be re-approached. People are looking for cheaper prices or cheaper goods. Brick & Mortar in Discretionary Spends. 1. Private academies could take a big hit in the near future. Entertainment could move home. 2. Because of this, cafes and restaurants might see some increase in business. Many chains are implementing measures like social distancing like lesser furniture, etc, to build confidence to consumers. 3. Smaller retailers need to send a message of safety. Eg: Have sanitisers, put up notice of no Covid positive employee found in the store, maintain social distancing, etc. 4. Since travel and tourism will take a big hit, connected purchases will also shift. Purchases that happened abroad will happen at home. (Eg. Electronics, Luxury goods and apparel, etc.,). But travel related purchases will drop. Financial Markets 1. There will be value destruction and value creation in different companies in the same sector. 2. High Debt low margin companies will find it difficult. (indicates risky or unscrouplus management) 3. High Debt high margin companies could be rewarded, but caution needs to be exercised. (may indicate sharp or dynamic management) 4. No debt high margin companies are best rewarded now. 5. Know more about the CEO and management and their actions and activities. 6. New tech unicorns will be born. Those involved in cyber security, cloud services, online education services, etc. Forex Markets 1. No doomsday scenario (i.e. Dollar will keep on going up etc). Such scenarios don’t seem realistic 2. Govt should be buying as much oil as possible, as such prices may never be seen in the future of oil. 3. As the western economies are more battered and local economy is less battered so far, there is more liquidity coming in. That’s why there is a rally in the market. This scenario could change depending on the spread of the disease. 4. Watch out for sharp spikes in the market. Better to avoid the spikes. Outlook for near future. A. Large Companies a. Huge concern seen for employees. Companies are paying the employees even when closed. b. Right sizing will happen c. Safety of employees and customers is becoming a major point of focus. d. This is possible because they have reserves of funds, etc that have been built up over the years. B. Medium and Small businesses. a. They have to work with thin capital reserves. Excess capital is taken out of the business and applied into personal assets. b. Small businesses take out the surplus and purchase personal assets instead of re-investing in the business. There are various factors and motivations here. c. Because of this, they are unable to meet the cash expenses of even the next month. e. Medium and Small business need to have a look at how they can build some business reserves to endure such disruptions. “Force Majeure” in Contracts 1. Should 'force majeure' clauses be triggerd in various contracts like rent, supply, etc? It will lead to litigation, but there is no point in getting into litigation now. 2. All parties have been affected by the crisis. The tenants, the landlords, the lenders/financiers, etc. 3. Parties need to sit across the table and find a common ground and mutually decide upon the costs, rentals, etc. Burden has to be shared. Work From Home Scenario. 1. It is possible for lot of employees to not visit the office and still be productive. 2. Telecoms and ISP will be singing Halleluyia to the banks 3. Parents can take care of children more effectively. There can be dark hours when no calls will be made, etc. Optimism As per a McKinsey survey of entrepreneurs released few days ago, 67% of African entrepreneurs are optimistic, 53%, while only 37% of Asian entrepreneurs are optimistic. It seems to be a mild U-Curve for some African economies. But the descent has not stopped yet. #COPIED ...interesting !! Note points 1, 2 3(under General Outlook) and 4(Liquidity and P&L), both in bold, and...... plus...... 8 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by modgba: 8:51pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
Access Bank Profit Sheds 0.7% to N40.9bn in Three Months https://businesspost.ng/banking/access-bank-profit-sheds-0-7-to-n40-9bn-in-three-months/ UBA Declares N30bn Profit in First Quarter of 2020 https://businesspost.ng/banking/uba-declares-n30bn-profit-in-first-quarter-of-2020/ Wapic Insurance Refunds Insurance Premiums to Customers https://businesspost.ng/auto/wapic-insurance-refunds-customers-insurance-premiums/ Investors Oversubscribe Dangote Cement's N100bn Bonds https://businesspost.ng/economy/investors-oversubscribe-dangote-cements-n100bn-bonds/ |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by dinyelutochukwu: 9:07pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
onegentleguy: Many thanks for sharing OGG. I share in their optimism, as for the backlash against China, i expect a robust response from the world community if no official apologies emanates from Beijing when the dust is settled. |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mcy56(f): 9:34pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
dinyelutochukwu:Oga....and you copied that whole writeup just to say few things? You should have simply share the article nah. 3 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 9:37pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
dinyelutochukwu: My Pleasure dear !! ...and I agree with u on the part in bold. It'll be hot on China post covid-19. Am thinking that this might be the beginning of the end of GLOBALIZATION as we know it. ...the signs are there. It will be difficult for things to return to initial statuesque on economic connection and integration. But then again, I also do NOT expect a sharp deviation from the norm. ..."the world will have to sit somewhere in between", especially in the short to mid-term. Regards 2 Likes |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Bomboclad: 9:44pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
Absolutely, it would get to 24k, but that would be after its current downward retracement, which would last till late next week like I earlier noted. RabbiDoracle: |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ojesymsym: 10:00pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
China is also a victim of the Corona virus, why should anyone seek to punish them for something that also affected them simply because they were the first victims. onegentleguy: 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 10:08pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
ojesymsym: They may end up as the "sacrificial lamb" in the quest to bring back normalcy across the globe. ...while it might not be justifiable, it might be "ok" for them(key world powers) to "get the ball rolling" Bro u no go understand. However, on the part about strain in globalization, I think it's the reasonable thing to do at this time. China will even feel more heat from that. ...they will lose a lot of market share on industrial production and there might be serious job loses. Am predicting a sharp drop in the Chinese market post covid-19. The Gov't in most countries will look to protect and grow their economies from within. Selah 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ojesymsym: 10:18pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
Hmmm. I hope you realize that China has used this opportunity to build Bridges and make friends. When the EU abandoned Italy and many other countries, it was China that came to their aid. The trade war with US started before the covid19 saga so they would have already compensated for that in their permutations. Industrially, China will still be strong if you ask me. onegentleguy: |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 10:38pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
ojesymsym: I get ur point. But the truth is; there is no way a strain in globalization will not affect them. ...China is the industrial and production hub of the world. Again, there is reason why the Gov't/leaders will want to focus more from within to grow their economies. The concerns around covid-19 means that there'll be serious disruptions in global supply chain, so job markets accross the globe will come under a lot of pressure. As a result, most countries will want to protect their own by creating the needed environment and allowing for more produce back home(backward integration/import substitution). ...that way, they can cushion job loses. Japan, Germany and the US have already started out with these measures. This goes beyond wanting to just pick a quarrel or even a fight with China. That country will likely not remain the same post covid-19. ...especially in the short to mid-term. Regards 1 Like 1 Share |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 11:35pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
Human testing of experimental Covid-19 vaccine starts in Britain https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/human-testing-experimental-covid-19-vaccine-starts-in-britain |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ojesymsym: 11:37pm On Apr 23, 2020 |
Okay. Okay. Point noted. onegentleguy: |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by seyisanya(m): 12:31am On Apr 24, 2020 |
Mcy56:This madam go k!ll me with laff ...Just what was going through my mind. I was like ''Haba, u 4 just quote the first paragraph nah and help us save some space'' Lol 1 Like |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by meshpips(m): 4:59am On Apr 24, 2020 |
Hi everyone, here is a simple chart for ZENITH showing the bearish swing starting 10th February - 11th August, 2019. The retracement ended at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and we expect price to extend to the 161.8% Fibonacci level on the downside. This 161.8% level is at 9.3X (almost co-incident with the monthly time frame support at 9.44). All the best everyone! 5 Likes
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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 7:22am On Apr 24, 2020 |
meshpips: Once decapitation has occurred, prices will need to move off from the low to settle at a higher stable point(s). And that is what is going on worldwide. I will use Exxon Mobil chart as example. Afterwards, I will post other charts which show similar pattern. I'm using ExxonMobil because it is in the sector that is most ravaged by this crisis. Yet it is lifting over the kumo to stabilize first. From the chart below, 2 things can happen: (1) A violent breakout into the kumo to emerge above that daily cloud. See the single arrow. Like the 10 10% rise. for NSE. (2) A gentle move horizontally, then breakout to stay above the kumo. Similar thing should play out on the other charts I will post. 2 Likes
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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 7:31am On Apr 24, 2020 |
meshpips: We can all relate with this one,though may not share the same sentiment. Good work from you and I hope to see more of this |
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 7:31am On Apr 24, 2020 |
The NSE banks and the index are doing the same thing. So applying the arrows used in the ExxonMobil chart, see GTB and Zenith. These are possible price paths to stay above the kumo. A rejection will mean that a new low will be formed. I think it is highly unlikely. 1 Like
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