Sweetguy25:
This is a brief realistic overview of what each year in Buhari's tenure will look like. If you think the future will be brighter, give explanations.

Buhari's first year (May 29 2015 - May 29 2016) :
The budget which Buhari's administration will work with in his first year is currently in the national assembly and it is yet to be passed. It is a 4.4 trillion naira budget with over 80 percent going to recurrent expenditure and debt service. Capital expenditure is less than 800 billion naira. Buhari may be unable to work because they do not fit with his party's plans.

Buhari might decide to pass a supplementary budget but this is unlikely because revenue projections/forecasts for the fiscal year are very low because of the low price of crude oil.
The reality is that the economy and governance will be very very slow from now till the year ends.

Buhari's first year in office will be likely spent on fiscal planning for the next three years and cutting down on their unrealistic plans and also setting realistic ones. Some of the APCs social security plans and other economic plans will be carried over to the next year because they're not in the 2015 budget and due to lack of immediate funding.




Buhari's second year (May 29 2016- May 29 2017): After Buhari's first year has ended, he now has three years to do deliver and Nigerians are getting serious.
Let's forecast that oil prices picked up to about 70 dollars a barrel and the government came up with a plan to boost IGR by 30 percent. 30 percent is the most realistic figure. Please also note that there will be no borrowing to fund government expenditure. Buhari hates borrowing (with interest)
Going by the above projections (70 dollars a barrel, 30 percent IGR increase, no debt) our 2016 federal government budget will be projected to be at about 6 - 7 trillion naira (About 35 billion dollars).
Now, let's imagine that recurrent expenditure takes about 60 percent of the budget and capital expenditure takes the remaining 40 percent. (This is unrealistic but let's leave it that way)
What will 2.5 trillion naira (20 billion dollars) worth of capital/infrastructure projects do in Nigeria?
Buhari has a dilemma of choosing sectors which the funds will channeled to.
We need infrastructure in power, roads and transport, water and environment, education, housing and healthcare. 3 trillion naira won't scratch the surface.

Remember that labour and trade unions like ASUU, NMA etc will want their priorities sorted out first before others. Remember that geo-political zones will want federal projects to be sited in their zones, the south east will want their roads to be repaired and new ports and other infrastructure developed, the south south will claim that they produce the oil and demand special treatment or else they will resume militancy. The north east will claim that Boko Haram has destroyed their region and they need special attention etc. These demands need to be met, but there's a shortage of funds.




Year 3 (May 29 2017- May 29 2018) : Buhari now has two years left. Less than 30 percent of his promises has been fulfilled and Nigerians especially those from the south south and south east are calling for change.
Oil price has now regained momentum, reaching 90 dollars a barrel. However, due to low prices of crude oil for the previous years, there has been no savings in the excess crude account for the past two years. There has also been no money added to our foreign exchange reserves. The CBN needs billions of dollars to "defend our naira" and the reserves are depleting. Unemployment is still high, there's no electricity, no better healthcare, no water etc.
ASUU needs their 1 trillion naira and they're threatening to embark on an indefinite strike. The petroleum industry bill has still not been passed due to opposition from northern legislators and IOCs. There are now strong allegations of corruption against the minister of petroleum and the minister of finance due to lapses in Buhari's social security and poverty alleviation programs.

The year ends and nothing much is achieved because there were shortfalls in revenue projections and other factors peculiar to administration and governance in Nigeria hindered project execution and delivery.
Two years and nothing has changed.

December 2017: Buhari presents a budget of 7 trillion to the National assembly. Still 60 percent recurrent and 40 percent capital. What will 2 trillion naira worth of capital and infrastructure projects do to create an impact in order to salvage his image in all geo-politcal zones? Nothing much.
Critical infrastructure projects take time to develop and Buhari has just less than two years to fulfil his campaign promises and redeem his image. He has still not fulfilled more than 20 percent of his campaign promises. There's no money and no time to execute them. Private investment in Nigerian infrastructure is risky and initiating big PPP contracts take time.

Meanwhile, the Buhari administration and his die-hard supporters are trying hard to showcase the achievements of Buhari but Nigerians aren't buying it. Poverty rates are still high, unemployment is high and inflation is high. More university graduates emerge but no jobs are available.

Some beneficial programmes that were available under the GEJ administration like YouWin and SureP has been stopped to support Buhari's social security programmes.

The PDP and other opposition parties are unrelenting in their attacks against Buhari. They allege that his administration is corrupt, inefficient and ineffective.
Age is not on his side and the effects of the pressure start to take a toll on his health. He relents and let's Osinbajo and his key appointees to take charge of critical government activities while he relegates himself to the background.

His Last Year (May 29 2018- May 29 2019): Its an election year, political activities heat up the polity and administration has been relegated to the background. Buhari clocks 76 this year and there are rumors that he won't be seeking reelection due to his age and his health.
Nigerians are not impressed with his extremely poor performance as president and he's likely to lose in a free and fair election.
The north wants one of their own to remain in power for the next four years and they are aware of Buhari's slim chances of winning. Disagreements between northern and southern politicians heats up the polity.
Party conventions and likely presidential candidates and campaigns officially kick-off.


Osinbajo presents a budget 6 trillion to the National Assembly. However, due to politicking and the elections, the passing of the budget is being delayed.
Nigerians are no longer concerned about Buhari's government and due to security concerns, investments and investors are wary of investing till the elections are over..

The elections are conducted........

You Don dey see the future abi? prophet of doom! on behalf of. Nigeria I reject your stewpid prophecy

firstEVA:


^
These are the true enemies of democracy! Keep wishing for Buhari's failure, instead of hoping for the best you are being negative, you fail to realise that when a govt fails you are affected personally.

give am word

yes
no big deal

tociano009:
Can this make buhari not to cry this month

thank God he didn't cry

yorke1:


Your first post and you couldn't look for a relevant thread to comment on or quote
SMH 4 you!

oh did you just comment again?

yorke1:
I don't comment on stu.pid thread.

you just did