Hello guys,

Just wanted to call you attention to the Airservice breakout of the wedge today. I do not usually include MACDs, but I decided to today after reading that wonderful primer by aktopgun.

Cheers.

@ aktopgun

Thanks very much for your response. It makes a lot sense especially with your example. I have to start paying attention to these formations.

Cheers.

nascon

My own little contribution to NASCON.

Interesting Wedge _(wedgie)   forming in NASCON. You could enter now i.e. everytime it bounces on the bottom trendline. I normally wait till breaks the wedgie too make sure the trend has started but then you would loose maximum possible gains and besides it's was too difficult getting into Dunlop this week.

@aktopgun and all

I just wanted to know your opinion; do you think candlesticks patterns can be applied to the NSE. I believe they can ( and I always prefer to see the stock market in this format) but I was told that a lot of patterns would be suppressed or exaggerated because of the 5% limit. And it seems there are more gaps within the data going from day to day.

Just wanted to know. Thanks.

@ windywendy

Good call on the Dunlop. It didn't even hesitate it just blasted through.

enurayce:

@Easimoni and other gurus
there is the so much talk on RSI,please can anyone find time to teach me how to calculate this manually.Any assistance will be greatly appreciated.

Waiting for your post.

Thanks

Just a note of caution; while RSI is a good tool for determining market condition, I don't think it should be used alone in determining entry and exit points. To put it better, I wouldn't use it to enter a trade I would only use it to determine my bias. I personally have been using resistance, support and trendlines bounces/breakthroughs with much success and the RSI is just an added advantage. Some other guys on this thread may have other technical analysis tools they favour and I'm sure they don't use RSI alone.

Here is something I got from investopedia.com. Note the last comment in bold.

RSI
A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. It is calculated using the following formula:
RSI = 100     -    100  
                      ---------
                      1 + RS  

RS = Average of x days' up closes / Average of x days' down closes  

As you can see from the chart below, the RSI ranges from 0 to 100. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued.
A trader using RSI should be aware that large surges and drops in the price of an asset will affect the RSI by creating false buy or sell signals. The RSI is best used as a valuable complement to other stock-picking tools.

wanaj0:

Better resist the temptation. Margin in that sector is not that huge. Competition is tight. Interest payment will eat seriously into the profit. If it as offer for sale, I will think twice. If it an IPO, will need to be sure that it is being offered at a discount. DSR was at a discount but the flour was way expensive.

I agree. I need to wear my glasses to look at this one. My only problem is what to do if we find out that the offer is a bargain. This Dangote guy wants me to break my new year resolution so early.

RoughCut:

Is this Dangote Guy for real?


http://www.proshareng.com/myproshare/portal_news.php?id=3569

Why? Why?! Why?!?! This Dangote guy is trying to tempt me o! I just have to try to resist.

[quote from Investorswords.com]
RSI
Definition

Relative Strength Index. A technical analysis indicator which measures the magnitude of gains over a given time period against the magnitude of losses over that period. The equation is RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + RS) where RS = (total gains / n) / (total losses / n) and n = number of RSI periods. The value can range from 1 to 100. Some technical analysts believe that a value of 30 or below indicates an oversold condition and that a value of 70 or above indicates an overbought condition.
[quote][/quote]

Hope this helps.

@ upward

I'm sorry I didn't delete any post. What actually topic were you refering to?

@Roughcut

I'm sorry upward and pumping are right but I agree you are mixing up usually above 70 or 80 is overbought and below 20 or 30 is oversold.

@ all
Pumping is right; because a price crosses 70 or 80 doesn't mean you should sell. It just there are too many buyers and and there will soon be a price correction. It may take one week or one month. One should be careful about these numbers, what they mean and how they are calculated. For example RSI calculated with 8 values will experience many more overbought or oversold positions more than an RSI calculated with 20 values.

The most important thing is these are numbers and should never be taken in a vacuum.

upward:

@Pumice,
Thanks a lot man, your analysis is very spot-on(at least from the Technical point of view). Thank you for sharing your knowledge, I really appreciate.

No problem guy. It's my pleasure. I loved the information sharing on this thread and I wanted to add some value myself. cheers.

aktopgun:

@pumice

by the way i wouldnt buy FCMB just yet u know. the indicators are not looking favourable enough just yet. Neg chaikin money flow, macd below EXP. rsi down below 50

@ aktopgun

You have a point but what can I do? I'm already in  . I've been in since last year. I just want to see where it goes from here.

pumping777:
1. AIICO - Once it loses steam.
2. Lawunion
3. Unic
4. Lasaco
5. Staco

@ olulufemi
Here are some recommendations pumping made earlier that could possibly weather the TS storm.

Guy, personally I am hesitant to recommend insurance stocks right now because the party started a long long time ago. You would be entering most at over-bought positions which is not my ideal entering situation. For instance, I bought linkage at 2.70, cornerstone at 4.05 and others like that all in december when they broke their resistance. If you were to enter any insurance stock now I would advise you to get out very soon or take your chances with the ones above based on pumping's recommendation. Pumping seems to have done some fundamental analysis on the ones above and I would take advantage of that.

Cheers.

@olulufemi

For insurance stocks I would go with the ones pumping and other gurus recommended. I just need info about the TS dates for any of them. That's probably the most important info for insurance stocks right now.

ololufemi:

@ Pumice,

Bros , how do you determine the breakout point

What insurance stock would u recommend now for shortest term speculation.

Thanks

Guy, I will explain what I mean using Dangote Sugar below. Note this is just the way I look at stocks so I maximise time and profit.

Often when there is no news about a company, its price will start ranging in a zone where buyers and sellers think is a good price to buy or sell. This is the price consolidation area which I highlighted in blue. Since we are in agreement that we are in a bull market and that dangote sugar is a good stock we can assume that the price will breakout the blue line on top. This usually happens when there is talk of dividends and bonuses and when it does, that's the break-out. Problem is, if this happens too near important news the price may take off as more and more people get on the plane so you have to monitor the share price.

But personally, I like to wait for to breakout come back down and touch the consolidation line again which it normally does. If it is a low cap stock and I have some confidence in the company, I don't wait; I even enter inside while the price is[b] still in consolidation[/b], this is too avoid scarcity when the price finally breaks out and I can't find any stocks to buy. this has happened to me before. Price consolidation can go on for a long time and your money will be in a stock that is still trying to decide where it is going while other opportunities are coming up so you have to be careful. Especially for me since I have targets on my dough.

Anyway that's why I said he should play the break-out on which ever moves first. The volumes of both companies are enough so there will be sellers ( I think).

Hope this helped.

afribank

@ Geees

Sorry I had to go out y'day so I didn't reply.

My own take is that both banks are good but I have been partial to FCMB since I read about their institutional investors around April last year. I read that HSBC, Soros Captal and one other company  invested in them and since I watch out companies that foreigners are pouring their money into I called my broker then. I bought into the share around early May and since my target is to try _{try being the operative word} to make at least 100% a year _{I'm not greedy} and I feel I will surpass this target with FCMB, I am holding on to the stocks to the catch movement I am expecting.

What you can do if you have a good broker and since both stocks have good volumes wait till you see some kind of break out on the either of them and then play the break out. Afribank's year end is earlier so I would anticipate a break out there first. I must confess I missed all the movement last year in Afribank and I am not so sure when the consolidation will stop. In summary, at current prices, I believe more in the possibility of a positive breakout with higher returns on FCMB. Perhaps the gurus could shed more light through their fundamental analysis and background info.

This is just my take.

@ Geees

Guilty as charged. Thanks.

You know what they say about a picture painting a thousand words. I try to avoid being like one of the 3 blind men who were trying to describe the elephant, I find it helps when we are looking at the same data in the same format. it's often easier to agree or disagree.  

windywendy:

Yes o, you're right. Historically it's usually last week of Feb or first week of March -- at least based on the info I'm seeing from Wanaj0's all-important spreadsheet . So last week of Feb is more like it then.

And WAPCO looks very good on the charts. Everything seems to be in a good area to buy. I can't understand what's happening to CCNN, it seems to be trading within tighter limits. 7up seems to be have been consolidating for the past year.

@ to Pennywise

I really appreciate your observations about the share; and I meant your earlier response as been constructive and not to connote the negative. Actually we were refering to the same company and I share your fears about the december movement but I think it helped set the trend. I like that you commented about what you were seeing, I just wanted to know why. If I cannot explain to another trader why I want to buy a share then I probably shouldn't be buying it so I always welcome opinions.

A lot of people don't use technical analyses and to be honest you can make serious money in the NSE without it. I noticed the bulk of people on this thread are partial to fundamental analysis. I just think that I can value to the thread by also showing technical reasons why I would take a trade.

Once again thanks for your contributions  

Pennywise:

@pumice
Your arrowhead appears rather overly optimistic don't you think?.I think it will require a little editing considering, Dont be discouraged I am one of those praying fervently and fasting for dunlop.

@Pennywise

No I don't get discouraged that easily. As a matter of fact I welcome your criticisms. That's why I joined this thread in the first place.

I was wondering what you meant by optimistic. I don't think there is another way to consider what is happening to the price within the last 3 months. It is making higher lows and higher highs which is the definition of an upward trend.  All I did was connect the 2 lows to give an indication of future price. Also the 6EMA crosses the 150EMA and holds. Like I said there's only that resistance around =N=5. I would welcome another way of looking at the charts as this would only add to my knowledge.  

Remember no-one has a crystal ball, a trendline just shows previous prices in an attempt to anticipate the future. In reality they all end up be broken in the future and price either consolidates or goes down. I rarely practice technical analysis in a vacuum, I look forward to hearing your reasons why you are skeptical. I think it was Albert Einstein who said "if we new what we were doing it wouldn't be called research".

Omoba3:

Pumice: Pray tell, did you draw the arrows in yourself or does the Nigeriansecurities tool do this?

Guy i did it myself o!

happens everytime.

@ gonziiii

Nice one with dunlop.

From a technical standpoint alone, at this time I would go with dunlop rather than neimeth. It seems to be heading in the right direction for a buy but the only thing I am afraid of is the =N=5 resistance point. It may power through or stall around there, as I highlighted in the chart there seems to be some serious buying in going on. Either way I'd rather be in than out. With neimeth it just seems I would be arriving at the party late.

Like I said this just from my own technical opinion, I'll leave the fundamentals to the gurus. The floor is still open to other suggestions. By now it's obvious I like pictures so here's one more.

@ Guk


Awoof no get bone.

Just thought I'd add this.

@ Pennywise

Pennywise:

@pumice
Good reasoning. But sentiment rules NSE. Fundamentally.

I'm no expert but I think sentiments rule in both bull or bear markets, not only in the NSE even. That's how fundamentally good stocks become undervalued allowing long-term fundamental traders to find bargains.

Pennywise:

Playing it safe led me into UBA which has turned into a mule. Most annoyingly its not even moving backward so I can have a reason to get it slaughtered and have it fed to the dogs doing all the work right now.

Perfect stock for all season? While it will do a lot to please the mind of persons like me, I have to say it remains in the realm of imagination.

I don't think you should give up your UBA. I don't know when you bought into the share and what your investment timeframe is, but to me it appears to be going through some consolidation which will soon be over. Again this depends how soon is soon for you, but consolidation is normal for stocks and is often and indication that a breakout is iminent. When this will happen I don't know. I think someone mentioned Q2 somewhere in this thread.

pumping777:

Personally, I don't expect any major rise in the price of Zenith short term after TS. At most, maybe 10% short term. I think there are too many traders that have positioned for this one and those that did large volumes will start profit taking early which will depress the price.

I agree. Besides there are other banks (that have been mentioned on this thread) which are in a position to make better gains. And they make sense both technically and fundamentally .

Hi guys

I just wanted to give you guys something to think about this weekend and please any observations are welcome.


Here is a trade I took this week. I bought Dangote sugar based on some technical analysis I did. Normally I would just have trendlines on from my charts which I download from cashcraft but I used the nigerian securities online software that was recommended in this thread. Although I still had to add the trendline and still have to calculate my fibonacci levels myself, I think the software is a godsent. I can see the big picture with volume, RSI and moving averages crossovers.

Anyway the main reason I bought the DSR this week was because of the confluence that happened last friday. This is very very rare situation when many, not all, of my favorite indicators or giving me a buy signal.
1. It touched the upward trendline and after retracing from it's high and it didn't break through.
2. It bounced of the 61.8% revel that I calculated which is about at =N=38.
3. The moving averages also support the direction, with the 150 ema being around the =N=38 zone.
4. The RSI is just coming out of the oversold position although on other markets I would wait for it cross 50.
5. and this happens in the NSE a lot, the was no recent bonus issue. this tends to make the 150 ema unreliable.
6. The icing on the cake; the flag structure which shows the slow rise to about 44 and the faster retracement back to the 38 level and the trendline (perfect).

I haven't seen so many signals telling me to buy since about september last year in another situation. To think, this happen in the NSE. The only thing I didn't like is that RSI not crossing the 50 mark and although the share seems to be stalling I rather being than out. To use the thread slangs I rather have a confirmed ticket than rushing at the last minute.

Note: I didn't buy just after november when it touch the trendline because it was coming out of consolidation which started in october and I wasn't sure where the trendline was. I didn't buy towards the end of december because I was saving money for MTN which I still missed in the end . But I guess everything worked out for the best. I didn't even talk about the candlesticks; we could go on for ever with that.

anyway that's my contribution for the week and like I said responses and criticisms are welcome. Have a good weekend and please keep up the good work.

Cheers.

I

I don't what happened there but here goes again.

Sorry, I know I'm the new guy here but I just wanted to add a distraction.

Guess who is in the picture.