I didn't know that we are all back. I almost missed this.

Cheers.

@Omoba

Thanks.

Nice to see we are back. I've missed most of the past yarns but I see Omoba has something interesting to share.

@ aktopgun and ijogbon

Thanks guys. Bump and Run Reversal; that was the name I was looking for.

As always aktopgun, your posts are interesting to read. Thanks for pointing out the positive divergence on Mbenfit, again I didn't notice it. So I guess short-term CICOers should be wearing their shoes right now. Like you say it's better to see supporting candle formations before jumping in.

P.S. Aktopgun, you don turn guru finish o! Nothing remain again.  

Cheers.

@ aktopgun and andico34

I saw the interesting ongoing discussion on Mbenefit and I wanted to add my =N=2  .

From a chart perspective and a medium term point of view _{which I believe is 6 to12 months}, I would wait to see the direction of the stock _{of most insurance stocks} within the next 1 to 2 months. I agree with someone who posted earlier that the insurance sector is a minefield. I believe you would have to able a good CICOer and/or candle analyzer not to get burned now, not to mention have an agbero broker.

To me trying to time the bottom of the correction that price is undergoing now after the period of accelarated growth is very risky especially if you are a medium to long termer. I would rather wait for price to consolidate and when interest dies then look for some indication to enter. There is a chart pattern I once read about but I can't remember the name and Mbenefit _{and a couple of other insurance stocks} shows the typical model. The red trendline showing a nice rise in price and then followed by a very steep rise in price with another trendline shown in blue. When the blue trendline got broken by price it was the 1st signal to get out. Price hesisted at the red where there usually is a rally but this too got broken. I would expect now, if not a continuing decline in price, then some kind of consolidation so I'd give the stock some time to breathe and observe. This is just to make sure I enter at the best possible price region. Anyway this is my own take.

PS. aktopgun, easimoni, roughcut and all, if you remember this chart pattern I would like to know the name. The site I use for technical analysis, Decision point (www.decisionpoint.com/tacourse/tacoursemenu.html), only talks about accelerated growth and I can't find the name of this chart pattern anywhere.

Cheers and Happy Easter.

eniyanman:

@pumice,
you, topgun and roughcut are doing a great job with your chart analysis. i do learn a lot from you guys.
learning, for me, is a life-long process.

Amen to that.

Cheers mate.

eniyanman:

absolutely! one indicator alone doesn't tell the full story. recall, i mentioned the chaikin money flow (CMF) gradient some time ago.When I refer to Chaikin, I mean CMF and its gradient. I use gradient to confirm the CMF.

Uh oh. Now I have to go and read up CMF. Does learning ever stop?

aktopgun:

interesting. but u see, its not always a good idea to draw trendlines that touch the price when they(the prices that touch the trendline) are too close together.

u be winch sha because i was doing the same thing on the NEM last night but had to draw 3 trendlines to get acceptable touches on the line. that resistance is a worry in this season but short term CICO (ie ultra-short CICO)may have to be the adopted strategy.

if u draw a trendline from a more recent price bottom then the convergence becomes more obvious

Nice one. I had the same problem about where the trendline would fall and how aggressive I should be. I like 'ULTRA SHOT CICO'. Nice way to give a heads up.

P.S. I must have missed that memo about the =N=1 post . Rest assured, from now on, it's only =N=1 and above contributions I will be giving.

Cheers.

aktopgun:

all this for me. i just dey learn jare but thanks for the compliments. i am good student abi

Guy you deserve it.

Meanwhile taking another look NEM, it's possible we could draw another trendline using the lowest low that would allow the doji to be above the support which would mean confluence and thus a reverse is pending. What do you think?

Personally I'm more worried about the resistance above. The stock has been in a down trend these past weeks, and with the bears back in town I'm not sure it can develop the momentum to break this resistance. My 2 kobo.

Cheers.

@ aktopgun

I just woke up now and I saw you question a few pages back on DSR. I immediately went to nigerian securities to have look. I noticed the trendline bounce that SavvyLanre saw _{correct guy}. Remember that's the same trendline I entered in a while ago _{I'm still in}. But I was stuck when you said it wasn't in the candles. I didn't even notice the positive divergence on the in the MACD. So there is more than one indicator suggesting coming price direction.

That's very perceptive of you aktopgun. Your analyses is growing from strength to strength and I really appreciate what you give on this thread.  Thanks a lot for your insights.

Cheers.

For those still in Transexpr; the future doesn't look to good. A double top pattern with RSI and MACD indicating exits. I personally wouldn't want to be in this one. My opinion though. All caveats apply.

Cheers.

Another opportunity in Ashaka. This time for both long termers who are ready to wait and those looking for smalls gains in less than 2 weeks. The price has been ranging between the support and resistance since last year. Based on the chart patterns I think the current price is a nice one to enter at. But CICOers should be aware of the resistance. All caveats apply.

Cheers.

@ blueband

I was also wondering what was happening and a possible conclusion is that with all the money coming and with all the new players coming into Nigeria perhaps there are institutional investors looking for companies that they can turn around or use to enter the Nigerian economy. It's just a theory but a company in trouble would offer less resistance towards a major investment or would probably do IPO to raise dough. But it still doesn't explain the rapid rise in price unless you have a lot people and not only big boys looking for companies not performing well.

Personally, I don't know what's happening in the banking sector. They all appear to be stalling except for ETI.  I bought ETI, IBTC, UBA all based on chart patterns but only ETI took off. I'm in the red a little on UBA and I now feel less confident especially since I didn't sell it off when pumping mentioned he sold his.

I really wonder how long this sideways movement will continue. I'm more of a medium term to long termer but it's appearing as if positive movements should be expected in Q4 2008. If that's the case then I possibly will reconsider my position.

Just airing my thots.

@ brownny

based on trendlines there is still potential to bleed. I don't know if candlesticks or fundamentals support entering now but if it were me I would wait to understand which direction it is heading and look for other technical indicators that would support entering now. Perhaps you could look for cross-overs on smaller EMAs. My opinion though.

Good luck. I'm going home now.

Cheers.

blueband:


Who dey go West Australia?Chei, I remember in 2005 a colleague and myself were offered jobs in Rockampton,Australia.The pay was eye popping.Running into 6 figures.The job had a jeep attached to it.The hospital accommodation had a swimming pool and it was massive.Who will refuse such an offer-?
Well, Rockhampton hospital was going to have it's first black doctors in the department and in Australia ,racism is almost a state policy.After listening to my Australian friends I turned down the offer.So did my friend.If you live in the UK try and watch "Border Control".It's about Australian Airports,Immigration and customs.Not a very nice place to go to,

What would you say about me living in Rio, where I'm the only black in the apartment building where I live? And the my office where I work, I'm the only black guy in the building that is not a cleaner or a messenger of some sort.  They still find it hard to believe I know the things I know and do the stuff I do. Racism is so in-grained into society here that they can't understand how else a black guy who doesn't play football or sings can be succesful.

@ aktopgun

Sorry about my absence aktopgun. I had a lot on my plate but I have some free time now so I intend to contribute more.

But you guys are doing a good (very good) job so far.  And since my investments are more of a longer term/ larger targets I like to sit on the sidelines sometimes to learn. I pay so much more attention to candlesticks now and I have you to thank for that.

Anyway I promise to be more active.

Cheers.

@ aktopgun & all.

I was just looking at the CCNN graph and I just wanted to add anyone entering now should be aware of the resistance at about 25. I agree with aktopgun that this would be a good time to enter but I'm not certain that the sideways trend is over.  I believe it will break the resistance some time in the future but don't panic if the price bounces back down. Unless you're in for a quick CICO.

PS. I don't have any.

Thanks for all the info and peace.

There's too much valuable info on this thread. Sometimes I don't know if I should just be a silent reader and download, especially since I've been crowded at work these past weeks.

Just wanted to add my own 2 kobo to aktopgun's on-going analysis of dunlop. If it freefalls below the support then someone high up knows something I don't. It's around here I would expect bounces off the support zone. My own take though.

Thanks to all for keeping this thread alive.

@aktopgun

Sorry I've been out of touch for while. I had a lot of personal stuff to take of. I'll try to put in more, but everytime I read this thread I get overwhelmed with the amount of info and pace at which the thread is growing.

You guys are doing such a wonderful job.

Cheers.

here

Hello guys,

Just wanted to show this trendline bounce on Airservices.

Cheers.

Wedge of the week.

Another slow weekend. Thot I could also post something on the lighter side.

Guess who? Hint: Look at the t-shirt.

@ all

Just wanted to say that this thread is a wonderful thing to read. I'm amazed at the wealth of information one can learn here. I've been 3 pages behind for the past 4 days trying to catch up but find did today.

Please keep up the good work.

Nice.

I meant 'that should do it'.

@ aktopgun

No problem.

After you save the picture as a jpeg. Go to the thread as you normally do. After typing your response, below the box where you type your response there should be the 'Subject' box and below that the 'Attach' box. Click on the 'Search' button and locate your jpeg picture. The path to your picture should appear in the white box in between 'Attach' and 'Search'. After that just click 'Reply'. That should do not.

Let me know how it works out.

Cheers.

@ aktopgun

Use 'Attach' to add your picture to the thread. That should work.

I had to step out quickly - my boss is breathing down my throat.

When I create a chart with nigeriansecurities I just right-click on the chart and save picture. This usually saves the chart as a bitmap. After I open the picture with with bitmap and add my lines I just save as a gif file. It normally saves in the right size so I don't need to recrop and it's not too heavy so I can easily attach them to this thread.

Hope this helps. Cheers.

@ yodiyokun

I was about to reply and I saw that easimoni had already done so. Like rasputin said we would need someone with lightening speed writing to be a scribe.  

@ easimoni

Right on the money as usual. Thanks for explaining the graph. I don't really know enough about MACDs so if there is any buy indication here I'll leave that to aktopgun to do the explaining. I just added MACDs for fullness of the picture.

@  yodiyokun

yodiyokun:

Hmm, ok I get am now - I remember my physics - sebi na there we learn convergence abi na Biology - I forget now!

Mathematics is unbelievable, how lines can predict price action is just beyond me!!!. Some people actually put this knowledge on paper oo - The capacity of the mind is awesome.

Anyway I digress.

Difference between divergence and convergence? teacher easimoni?

also how can you be soo sure that this convergence will produce postive price action since it can also produce negative price action?

Sorry, my question too much!!

Very observant. If I get your question; like easimoni said, the fact is you can't be sure if price is going down or up. You just have to wait to see which trendline price breaks and then trade accordingly. I was biased to the price breaking top blue line just because we were in a bull market but one never knows. Perhaps anyone with fundamental info on Airservice can shed more light on the stock.

Wedges are a common tool and I prefer to use trendlines to understand what is happening. I will add a site that helped lot when I was learning this stuff. I think adding this with the information aktopgun is giving to this thread, we can only improve our trading decisions.