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Unite4real's Posts

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Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 7:01am On Feb 20
guyzgirl:


Please explain how the rebasing of the CPI is responsible for the fall in Tbills? From my understanding, tbills sale is an auction process and rates are determined by bids; as you can see, there were investors comfortable with 16% return. How is this the doing of rebased CPI? Beyond this, would you blame the central bank for trying to disincentivize the warehousing and starving of funds from the real economy? Take a look at recent tbills and bond results, it is obvious that there is excess liquidity chasing the issuances, N2.2Trillion chasing N500Billion!!. Bear in mind that this is at the expense of the real sector, who are being starved of funds, because the available, if not excess liquidity, is chasing TBills.

It would also be instrumental to remember that TBills are a monetary instrument and this current effort would help taper the currently high interest rates businesses are burdened with.

I think the CPI played a key role.
If you looked at the previous auction the offer was more than this one. It was N3.15 Trillion chasing N500 Billion yet the stop rate was 20.3%
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 11:51am On Feb 19
Sunrisepebble:
This will no doubt affect dividend payment also. Theyre desperate, taken on too much in terms of all these acquisitions all over the place

there is no evidence anywhere so far about this information. Access bank is not going to raise a commercial paper and the information is held discreet.

I do not personally believe this at this time as it is only at a rumour stage
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 5:25am On Feb 17
veecovee:
Pls house is there a stocks more capitalized than DANGCEM

I think it's currently worth over 8 trillion

AIRTEL is the most capitalized
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 5:16pm On Feb 16
Mpeace:
Mistake. I mean 500million. At current price you need N513,000,000 to bring about a 10% fall, and 632,000,000 to bring about a 10% rise.

Ok.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 3:42pm On Feb 16
Mpeace:
The price limit is not even the main issue. The main issue is the 100k single unit requirement for price movement. There is a stock on NSE that trades at N1million per unit. That stock needs a single transaction of N100billion to make any move.
Seplat needs a single transaction worth over N500billion to make a single move. Whereas some stocks need only less than N50k to make a single move.
That to me is the rule we need to change.

.sure you are joking about the N500 Billion.
How is that possible.
Even if 1 unit is N10,000 a single 100k units should be N1 Billion

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 9:59pm On Feb 09
NettyNelly:


Please reconfirm this Info. From what i checked, It's Aradel who Owns about 2.7B shares in CONHALL, not the other way around.

Please correct me if I'm wrong and kindly point me to the right source of your Info.

Where is the source pls.

I cannot find this in the Conhall PLC report. 2.7B units of Conhall is significantly above 25% of their total 10.8B units of OS
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 12:45pm On Feb 06
KarlTom:
Not much.
Same issue with UNIVERSAL...

am sorry it is even UNIVERSAL i meant to ask.

let me edit it
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 11:42am On Feb 06
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 2:44pm On Feb 05
Streetinvestor2:
That is not what is on the news abeg

i taya o
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 2:26pm On Feb 05
essentialone:


These 4 Companies, though Suspended, are supposed to be showing on stock bubbles. Please resolve it:

1) African Alliance Insurance Plc
2) ASO Savings and Loans Plc
3) STACO Insurance Plc
4) Standard Alliance Insurance Plc

even when they are not bubbling?

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 1:26pm On Feb 04
Valthegreat:
I am surprised nobody makes mention of stocks that are on NASD on this forum, is it largely because there are just few companies there for now?

the name of the forum is NIGERIAN STOCK EXCHANGE MARKET PICK ALERTS.

and Not NASD.

I supposed the difference is clear.

You can start a thread for NASD

4 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 2:22pm On Feb 03
OKOMUOIL moved officially even with the result. This is a pointer to how far PRESCO should go

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 4:30am On Feb 02
faoogoke:
As many as are hoping on palm oil producing companies, PRESCO, OKUMO and ELLAH LAKES.

As they expand their farms and with increase planting from small scale holders the possibility of a glut should be factored.


Why do you think that palm oil export is banned in Nigeria.
We are not producing enough. If it's easy to jump into the business and create a glut, Ellhlakes would have started producing. It takes time. It's not like maize or rice farming.

Themoment Nigeria becomes self sufficient, then PRESCO will make more money because they will start exporting.

Palm oil that some countries are already using as bio fuel. Many industries need it. Examples are pharmaceutical companies, cosmetics, personal care (soaps, shampoos, lotions), food industries, lubricants, surfactants, animal feeds, paper and packaging. Not to talk of our daily cooking.

It will outlive crude oil.

18 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 4:09am On Feb 02
essentialone:
DAAR COMMUNICATIONS PLC REPORTS EARNINGS RESULTS FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2024
Daar Communications Plc reported earnings results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2024. For the fourth quarter, the company reported sales was NGN 2,103.46 million compared to NGN 1,316.95 million a year ago. Net loss was NGN 889.09 million compared to NGN 808.27 million a year ago. Basic loss per share from continuing operations was NGN 0.11 compared to NGN 0.1 a year ago.
For the full year, Sales was NGN 4,991.93 million compared to NGN 4,510.34 million a year ago. Net loss was NGN 2,870.81 million compared to NGN 1,509.03 million a year ago.

Those profit figures you posted are not positives just so you know and not mislead yourself into thinking you have a profitable company waiting for you to buy.
When you look very well, there is a minus sign. This was how caverton Q3 report used a minus sign against the usual open and closed bracket that we are used to and later came out to correct the inconsistency after the share price had rallied so high. Then the price started dropping like a pack of cards following the correction.

It's deceptive for them to use minus sign in some areas and closed brackets in others when they mean the same thing.

Shine your eyes

3 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 7:28am On Feb 01
chimex38:

Almost all insurance had a poor quarter 4 outing.
Those that managed to stayed in profit benefited from diversification.
I think and suspect they probably pay claims and other deferred payables by year end.

CONSOLIDATED HALLMARK is the best of all results so far and not just the insurance alone.

What they dropped was like a bomb

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 2:48pm On Jan 31
Raider76:
This market hard oo. Looks like even good results don't guarantee a sustained rally. See as CWG can't close on bid.

some people never digest the results
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 2:21pm On Jan 29
Streetinvestor2:
Pls has okumu officially moved today as per nse rule

NO
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 1:59pm On Jan 29
ojeysky:


Is that EPS of 15 naira that am seeing? O'boy

am sure you know what it means to have a figure in open and close bracket in accounting

4 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 6:33pm On Jan 28
bolton08:


Looks like Aradel makes largest chunck of their revenue from Q4.

Yeah.
Q4 alone surpassed Q1 to Q3 combined

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 10:13pm On Jan 27
Bagwa:
New oando 😄

OANDO PLC- NOTICES OF BOARD MEETING (BM) - NOTICE

The third line as cut out below sounds like they are not sure of the meeting holding.
Why are they having such a clause.

that a meeting of the Board of Directors of Oando Plc ("the Company"wink is
scheduled to take place on January 30, 2025, or on such earlier or adjourned date as
may be determined

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 11:02am On Jan 27
ositadima1:


Another thing is diversification, Investing heavily in the same company that pays your salary is some how ooo, if the company chocke na village straight ooo. grin

At least he will be getting inside information which is very helpful to grow his capital or know when to exit

7 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 3:00pm On Jan 23
KarlTom:
ARADEL. -1.10%
CONOIL. -9.99%
ETERNA. -2.18%
OandO. -5.14%

CONOIL did not drop

ETERNA did not drop

OandO did not drop

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 11:06am On Jan 23
Sunrisepebble:
Anyone familiar. Will Transcorp (Parent company), use the new OS after the share reconstruction for the final results? As at 9M the reconstruction had not taken place, so it didn't reflect in the result


Yes they will.
The reconstruction was done and dusted. Registered and allocated to CSCS during the period.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 8:13am On Jan 23
emmanuelewumi:




How?


They are not operating a Holding structure.

The parent company will get dividends from the company and certain benefits as per related parties transactions

sorry, this is what i actually meant.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 7:05am On Jan 23
Youngzedd:



These people no show joy.

5 Naira Div for a 324 stock embarassed

Wait until you see Transcorp Hotel.

Most of the revenues from both goes to the parent company TRANSCORP PLC. Maybe that's why the attention should be
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 11:10am On Jan 18
Mpeace:
With Fidelity banks plan to do a private placement of addittional 20billion units, pls what will be the OS at the end of the day. One site claims 73billion shares another says 63billion.
Those in fidelity, pls what is the correct figure?

The dilution is becoming too much. Eps go just dey like 80kobo. How much dem want come pay as dividend.

Go through the first paragraph on the disclosure page and you will find the information direct from Fidelity bank as increasing the share capital from current N26.7 Billion to N36.7 Billion of N0.50 each.

So when you divide by 50k you arrive at 73.4 Billion units of shares.

So the right answer is 73.4 billion.

The authentic figure is what you get from the company publication

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Listings-site/corporate-disclosure-site/Documents/Fidelity_Bank_Plc_Notice_of_EGM_.pdf

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 7:30am On Jan 16
Mpeace:
https://www.nairaland.com/8318488/bosun-tijani-nigerians-pay-60

Nigerians to pay 60% more for calls

30% to 60% actually. That's the range as published.

I think this is to leave room for competition.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 6:51am On Jan 15
NettyNelly:


It's a $125M Deal, $65M initial Deposit.

.

The Asset is being financed by a N150bn bond program with a c.24% coupon, if the Naira weakens, it gets paid off faster.



I may be wrong with my Analysis

I don't think it gets paid faster if Naira weakens. Rather it's if Naira strengthens as long as the loan secured is to be paid from the Nigerian business to pay for the asset in Ghana.
If Naira weakens, then more of it is needed to exchange for dollars. The reverse is the case

4 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 10:42pm On Jan 14
bastardson:
Naaaah I like u though. Everything I am buying right now is long term.

I don’t even need immediate gains.

I believe u die. I budgeted 5m when I became active here in August last year. 500k units of CHAMS, 1M unit of Ellah Lakes. I have Afolabi of ARADEL, thinking of switching my stake in Access to International Breweries.

Learn NB can do 100% but IB can do 300%

IB with 168B units of outstanding shares is scary. How will traders allow it hit this ur target of 300% will be a Harvard case study.

The size of the OS is just too much

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 10:13pm On Jan 14
emmanuelewumi:



It appears the corporate bond was oversubscribed

What is the implication of this?

Will they absorb it 100% and hence pay off for the entire acquisition?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 8:47am On Jan 13
emmanuelewumi:



What is your average cost price?

If it less than N40 you can book profit.

With the appreciation of Naira, I don't think investors will be paid more than N90 per share and this should be paid by second quarter of 2025

if the exit price for the majority shareholders stood at N90, then i believe the MTO for the minority should be doing above N100
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by unite4real: 5:44am On Jan 13
NettyNelly:



Since my thesis is that the market has yet to recognize the company's recently improved earnings, I chose to value the stock purely from an earnings perspective, based on how much the market has historically paid for such earnings.


Beta Glass reported an improved EPS of ₦2.4, ₦4.78, and ₦6.68 in Q1, Q2, and Q3 2024, respectively. This sums up to a 9-month EPS of ₦13.86. I forecast a full-year (FY) annualized EPS of ₦18.46, which assumes the company will earn an EPS of ₦4.6 in Q4. At the Current ₦ 49 share price, this projection translates to a forward P/E ratio of 2.65, which is remarkably low for a company with a 5-year average P/E of 5.

If we multiply the average P/E of 5 by our forecasted FY EPS of ₦18.46, we arrive at a target price of ₦92, representing an 88% upside from the current price of ₦49 per share.

Alternatively, if we take a more conservative approach and assume the company will earn just ₦2 in Q4, the FY EPS would be ₦15.86. Multiplying the same average P/E of 5 yields a target price of ₦79, representing a 62% upside from the current price of ₦49.

My assumption of ₦2 EPS for Q4 2024 is highly conservative. Post-COVID, the only instance where the company earned less than c.₦2 was in Q3 2022, with an EPS of ₦1.46. Apart from that, the business has consistently earned at least ₦2 per share over the last 16 quarters. I believe my target price would be met as the market reprices to 5x earnings or more on the back of strong full-year results, that it is yet to recognize.



Below is a chart I created to illustrate the market doesn't reflect current earnings.

The current market price is not N49.

It is N64.90

1 Like

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