With just about 50 days to go before Nigerians go to the polls to decide the nation’s next president come May 29, 2023, I consider it to be shameful that the so-called G5 governors are still enmeshed in their pitiful dance of directionlessness.

While 90% of Nigerians, in my own guesstimation, have already decided the candidate of their choice, leaving only about a tenth as undecided,it is a shame that the five Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governors, who are supposed to be leaders of their party, with the indefatigable, garrulous NyesomWike of Rivers State running the show, continue to revel in their bloated yet diminishing perception of self-relevance.

As the D-day approaches, the percentage of the electorate whose minds are yet to be made up on their presidential candidate of choice,decreases significantly. Effectively, by the time Governors Wike, Makinde, Ortom, Ikpeazu, and Ugwuanyi finally decide the direction that their support would sway, their endorsement may result in having little or no impact on the eventual election outcome.

Amid rife speculations that the G5 has struck a deal with one of the three front runners for the presidency, Wike, as he is wont to, has cleared the air that Nigerians need not speculate or be moved by rumours. According to the Rivers State governor, “Don’t you know that when I want to do something, I will do it? Don’t you know? Do you need to speculate? You don’t need to speculate… So, my dear people, I just want to tell you that whatever decision I will take, I will let you know."

My dear Wike, your decision, like the group of you and your servile supposed fellow governors, is becoming more irrelevant by the day. It is most unfortunate that the weight of the resources you had set aside for the coming presidential election are now being spent wasting billions on commissioning projects and ‘sewing asoebi’ with your G5 governors. junketing across Nigeria and Europe in purposeless deliberations and meetings.

Understandably, chief amongst those celebrating the disunity in the PDP ranks are supporters of Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate. As politicking goes, any minus for the opposition is a plus for them, or in today’s parlance, made popular by Wike and his band of praise singers, “As e dey pain dem, e dey sweet us…”

Is it not hypocritical that Obi’s supporters, who like their demigod, vociferously criticize the wastage that has become of governance and politics in Nigeria, celebrate the antics of the Rivers State governor and his allies? From the moment Wike declared that he will logistically support Peter Obi anytime the former Anambra State governor is in Rivers to campaign, and a deal was struck between Wike and Obi, the OBIDIENT movement have channeled their massive presence to applauding Wike’s every move.

One can only imagine how much of Rivers State taxpayers’ money Wike has spent with his endless hours of live broadcasts across major TV channels. In his bid to ‘pepper’ his detractors, Wike has used every project commissioning to attack anyone who dare says a word against him, and turned the ceremonies into petty shows of wastefulness. It is fortunate to note that the whole charade can only last for a few weeks more.

As it is becoming clearer to even the blind that the rumoured disunity amongst the G5 governors is not a mere speculation, it would serve Wike and his ‘boys’ better if they mend fences with their party’s presidential candidate. Not only will such a move be face-saving, it will also guarantee them the most relevance before and beyond the elections, especially for those of them who will be on the ballot.

#VoxPopuli2023

Based on precedence, Lagos State is considered an All Progressives Congress(APC) stronghold, as the party has consistently delivered gubernatorial elections and holds almost all legislative seats at the state and federal levels. Lagos is also the home state of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the APC presidential candidate. Since his two-term governorship reign from 1999, Tinubu's dominance of the state's political sphere has not been a secret, and he remains the most influential figure in the state's political affairs.  

As far as politics is considered in the nation’s ‘Centre of Excellence’, even ‘His Excellences’ successive governors of the state have had to consistently and continually pledge their fealty to Tinubu a.k.a. Jagaban, in order to remain in control of the party apparatchiks in government or to get reelected. Over every election cycle in Lagos, for the past 23 years, Jagaban has almost solely determined where the presidential votes sway. And now ‘it is his turn’. 

On the surface, it would appear that winning the state would be as easy as taking candy from a baby, but a closer examination reveals that he faces some peculiar obstacles.  

First, let's examine the margins of victory in previous elections. In the 2015 presidential election, APC’s Buhari received 792,460 votes compared to the incumbent Jonathan's 633,327 of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); a difference of 159,133 votes. Similarly, although President Buhari also won Lagos in the 2019 election, receiving 580,814 votes to defeat PDP’s Atiku by a margin of 132,798 votes, the difference was slimmer. This demonstrates that although the APC appears to control the scene, its power is not absolute.  

APC's victory in the 2019 elections was also allegedly aided by electoral malpractices such as vote rigging, ballot theft, vote buying, etc. further questioning the reliability of their seeming invincibility in the state. Thankfully, with the introduction of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), rigging is now more difficult and traceable, and the electoral umpire has assured a more transparent electoral process.  

The next factor to consider is the opposition. Currently, it appears that Atiku's influence in the Southwest geopolitical region is limited, particularly in comparison to other regions. As a result, it may be safe to conclude that whatever votes he may garner in the region would not be enough to significantly alter the election outcome.  

This narrative changes when Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate comes into the fore. Tinubu's influence is largely secure over a section of the electorate, including native Yorubas, market/labour unions, area boys, and political elites. Nonetheless, a growing number of enlightened Yoruba voters have reservations about voting for Tinubu and the APC. For younger voters - the Gen Z demography, the events that transpired during the #EndSARS protests are still fresh in their minds and they may come out to prove their point with the votes. Also, Christian voters appear to be opposed to the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC. These suggest that the APC could receive fewer votes in the Christian and Youth communities in the upcoming elections.  

FINAL VERDICT: Although an APC victory is anticipated in Lagos, the margin may be even slimmer than in 2019. With some uncertainty surrounding the 2023 elections outcome and the  emergence of Peter Obi distorting the two-party dominance of the APC and PDP, there is still some chance that the more-favoured APC may be in for a shocker.

#VoxPopuli
#PresidentialElectionPulse2023

Peter Gregory Obi, the Presidential Candidate of the Labour Party released his manifesto earlier this month. The manifesto, titled “Prospects of Transformative Governance in Nigeria” contained his plans and promises for governance, if elected into office in 2023.

The manifesto addressed a wide array of issues, including, rebuilding Nigeria’s military power, promoting economic growth, and improving Nigeria’s diplomatic influence in global affairs.

Here are the the 6 focal points of his Manifesto.

1. Addressing Insecurity: Peter Obi promises to Restructure, Re-equip and Reorient the Nigerian Police and to transform Nigeria’s security architecture by building a technologically-driven defense system, with emphasis on border security and neutralizing internal security threats. He also promised to improve the three levels of policing - Federal, State, and Community policing and to raise the Population-to-Police officer ratio.

2. Addressing Nigeria’s Monetary Policy: The Labour Party Candidate promises to re-establish the independence of CBN, He commits to stabilizing Nigeria’s exchange rate and to reducing inflation to single digits. Also, He adds that he will address Nigeria’s foreign debt by putting an end to borrowing for consumption and eliminating leakages to provide funding for governance.

3. Addressing Economic Development: The manifesto promises that the Labour Party administration will prioritize food security, human capital development, job creation, expansion and development of physical infrastructure, and economic growth. He adds that - “We will have zero tolerance for corruption; block leakages and cut the cost of governance. Our total commitment to transparency and accountability in government business is the only credible way to achieve limited to zero corruption.”

4. Addressing Inclusive Governance: The manifesto emphasizes the promotion of equity in governance, especially in power and resource sharing. He adds “We shall ensure that in moving Nigeria forward, no state or community will be left behind.” Obi also promises to uphold the principles of federal character, affirmative action, and gender balance .

5. Addressing Oil theft / Resource Protection: Peter Obi addresses resource protection in his manifesto, he says “The oil theft is not petty pilfering. It is an organized crime by a syndicate that involves a certain degree of sophisticated intelligence and logistical arrangement. We must admit that oil theft is happening because there is domestic and external collusion. The government and the people have the collective responsibility to protect national assets. On my watch, those responsibilities will be accorded high priority.”

6. Addressing Nigeria’s Foreign Policy: The Labour Party flagbearer reveals that he will take a proactive approach to Nigeria‘s Foreign Policy action. He promises to restore and improve Nigeria‘s leadership sub-regionally, regionally, and globally through constructive engagement, peacekeeping, and using existing sub-regional and regional forums as well as bilateral platforms for dialogue on current and emerging challenges.

Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president of Nigeria and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, released his five-point policy agenda which promises to restore Nigeria’s fractured unity, as well as rebuild the nation’s battered economy.

The policy document tagged, ‘My Covenant with Nigerians,’ is an updated version of his 2019 presidential election campaign document.

The policy document released ahead of the 2023 general election and also envisioned tackling the current insecurity challenges to guarantee the safety and security of lives and property, build a dynamic economy for prosperity, restructure the polity to foster unity and stability, as well as provide quality education.

Below are the five focal point of Atiku’s Manifesto.

National Security: Atiku said his government would reactivate meaningful registration at birth as a way of reducing crime rate and protecting Nigerians. Also, the PDP flag bearer said he would rely mainly on alternative approaches to dispute resolution, as against relying mainly on a kinetic approach to crush insurgency. He also promised to make state governments more viable as centres of development, by decentralizing security institutions, promising to deal decisively with terrorism, kidnapping, and other crimes.

National Integration and Unity: He believes that “Nigeria’s unity has never been so threatened as it is now,” adding that an “increasing number of Nigerian citizens openly challenge their allegiance to Nigeria’s corporate existence through violent agitations and misguided demands for ethnic-regional autonomy because of widespread feelings of marginalization and neglect.” He promises to address these issues and to restore unity to
the Nigerian polity.

Education: A key component of the policy aims at improving and strengthening the education system and equipping students with all the necessary skills needed to be competitive in the new global order which is driven by innovation, science, and technology.

Economic Development: The policy document also itemised Atiku’s plans to restore the nation’s economy back to the pre-2015 levels. Atiku revealed that his agenda was guided by three basic principles: Reaffirming the criticality of private-sector leadership, greater private sector participation in development; and repositioning the public sector to focus on its core responsibility. Additionally, the PDP presidential flagbearer proposes to break government monopoly in all infrastructural sectors, including refineries, rail transportation and power transmission.

He assures further that the market will determine prices, and as a result, “the persistent price distortions occasioned by current interventionist exchange rate management policy shall be eliminated.”

True Federalism: He also promises to address the vexed issue of “restructuring” when he noted that “Nigeria has continued to operate a faulty, complex federal structure with a high degree of centralization at the centre.” For him, “The Federal Government has succeeded in accumulating many responsibilities which belonged to the other levels of government.

Finally, Atiku urged citizens “to hold him accountable if he fails to deliver on his social contract with Nigerians.”

The Presidential candidate of The All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu released his manifesto in late October 2022. In the manifesto document, he highlighted national security, the economy, job creation, and others as the top priorities of his campaign and presidency, if elected.

Tinubu, in his 80-page manifesto also vowed to end the controversial petrol subsidy gulping trillions of naira annually, and tackle the forex crisis hindering the economy.

The APC candidate’s campaign policy document, tagged "Renewed Hope: Action Plan for a Better Nigeria", was unveiled at the State House Banquet Hall, alongside the inauguration of the APC Presidential Campaign Council (PCC) by President Muhammadu Buhari.

Here are 10 promises of the former Lagos State governor contained in the manifesto.

1. Build a Nigeria where sufficient jobs with decent wages are available to youths and can help build a better life.

2. Manufacture, create, and invent more of the goods and services Nigerians require. He noted that Nigeria will be known as a nation of creators, not just consumers.

3. Export more and import less, strengthening both the naira and the Nigerian way of life.

4. Continue assisting Nigerian farmers, through enlightened agricultural policy that promotes productivity and assures decent incomes, so that farmers can support their families and feed the nation.

5. Modernize and expand public infrastructure so that the rest of the economy can grow at an optimal rate.

6. Embolden and support young people and women by harnessing emerging sectors such as the digital economy, entertainment, culture, tourism, and others to build the Nigeria of tomorrow, today.

7. Train and give economic opportunity to the poorest and most vulnerable citizens, and create a Nigeria where no parent is compelled to send a child to bed hungry, worried whether tomorrow shall bring food.

8. Generate, transmit and distribute sufficient, affordable electricity to provide the requisite power to enlighten the lives, homes, and dreams of Nigerians everywhere.

9. Make basic healthcare, education, and housing accessible and affordable for all.

10. And, establish a bold and assertive policy that will create a strong yet adaptive national security architecture and action to obliterate terror, kidnapping, banditry, and all other forms of violent extremism from the face of our nation.

#VoxPopuli
#PresidentialElectionPulse2023

RACE TO 2023 PRESIDENCY: MALIK ADO-IBRAHIM

Prince Malik Ado-Ibrahim, a businessman, renowned human rights activist and founder of the Reset Nigeria Initiative, won the Young Progressives Party (YPP)'s presidential primary, thus emerging as their presidential candidate for the 2023 election. Shortly after his victory, he vowed to "uphold (his) mandates and live up to (his) great party's aspirations as a youth" proclaiming; "This is the beginning of a new dawn (for the party and the country)."

For those who may not be familiar with him, here are ten facts about Prince Malik Ado-Ibrahim.

1. Prince Abdul-Malik Ado-Ibrahim was born to the historical Atta Royal Family of Ebira Land, Kogi State, Nigeria on December 22, 1963. (Age 58)

2. He is the heir to the throne of the Ohinoyi of Ebira Land in Kogi Central, Kogi State, Nigeria.

3. Prince Malik received his early schooling in the United Kingdom before earning a Bachelor of Science in Economics at the American College in the United States.

4. The prince was a model student, excelling in both academics and athletics; he was the first black man to own a Formula One team, Arrows F1, and he is an exceptional polo player.

5. From 2007 to 2011, he served as an Under-Secretary at IREO, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Agency for Renewable and Sustainable Energy; this spurred his interest in the renewable energy industry, and he founded Bicenergy, one of Africa's top energy and technology enterprises.

6. In 2016, his business, Nigus Enfinity, collaborated with Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to host the first solar exhibition in Nigeria; since then, they have participated in renewable energy projects in South Africa and the United Arab Emirates.

7. He founded the Reset Nigeria Initiative, a movement that aspires to reform Nigerian politics. Using sectorial information to empower citizens, he seeks to reorient citizens toward responsibility in governance.

8. Prince Malik is married to several spouses, who have remained out of the public eye and about whom little is known other than the fact that they are blessed with numerous children.

9. In August 2020, he married Adama Indimi, the daughter of Mohammed Indimi, an oil mogul and the chairman of Oriental Energy Resources.

10. The son of the Ebira monarch’s net worth is estimated to run into millions of dollars, with his father, HRH Dr. Ado Ibrahim, the Ohinoyi of Ebira Land famed as the first Nigerian to drill oil in the country and become a pioneer in the sector.

QUOTE:

"We have no choice, other than to correct our direction as a nation. It’s not a fight, it’s a contest to reset Nigeria. We are all Nigerians we are not enemies."

- Prince Malik Ado-Ibrahim

RACE TO 2023 PRESIDENCY: ADEWOLE ADEBAYO

One of the youngest politicians that will be on the ballot in the 2023 general election, Social Democratic Party, SDP flagbearer, Adewole Adebayo has promised to rid Nigeria of insurgency and banditry within 100 days, if elected as president.

The lawyer cum businessman and broadcaster boasts of having never held any public office, and so is convinced that only persons of his ilk can do more than mere rhetoric in tackling the hydra-headed Nigerian monster called corruption heads-on.

Although information about him is hardly in the public domain, we will manage to treat you to quick facts about the Yoruba activist, who campaigns with the hashtag #HopeAgain2023, in continuation of our “10 Must-Knows” series.

1. He hails from Ondo State, and was born on the June 8, 1972 (Age 50).

2. He completed his primary and secondary education in his home state before obtaining a law degree in the prestigious Obafemi Awolowo University, Ife, between 1991 and 1997.

3. In a rare feat, as a lawyer, Adebayo has earned licenses to practice across Nigeria, Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, California, New York, and federal courts in the United States.

4. The Ondo State-born SDP presidential candidate spent two years cutting his teeth in private law practice as a litigation lawyer at Tunji Abayomi and Co, a legal firm in Lagos.

5. In 2002, he established his own law firm, Adewole Adebayo and Co. House of Law.

6. Expanding his business interests, in 2016 he launched the King Adebayo Film and Theatre Arts Network Television, KAFTAN TV, a multimedia production house that develops African-themed content for radio, television and web.

7. In his own capacity, Adebayo is a philanthropist, allegedly sponsoring about 2,000 Nigerians in local and foreign tertiary institutions.

8. Asides his activism, diplomatic visitations within and outside the country, and his political intentions, he has operated relatively under the radar and cannot be associated with any controversy.

9. Although a political neophyte, he is an advocate of social justice and hugely admires past Nigeria leaders like Obafemi Awolowo and Aminu Kano.

10. Religion and marital status not available.

QUOTE:

“Young people have a greater challenge because they have the population… This is the time that young people must mobilise themselves. They must come out and believe in themselves and take over power and give it to a young person.”

- Adewole Adebayo

#voxpopuli #PresidentialElectionPulse2023

2023: KOLA ABIOLA - 10 MUST-KNOWS

On June 6, 2022, the eldest son of the late Moshood Kashimawo Olawole Abiola GCFR, Mr. Kola Abiola emerged as the 2023 presidential candidate of the Peoples’ Redemption Party (PRP).

He defeated competition from Usman Bugaje, Patience Key, and Col. Gboluga Mosugu (rtd) to clinch the PRP presidential ticket.
Upon winning the ticket, Abiola pronounced that a victory for PRP at the presidential poll would be synonymous with that of his deceased father in the June 12, 1993 election and that his emergence would motivate younger people to vote and participate more in politics. These, however, remain to be seen.

Here are ten things you should know about Mr. Kola Abiola.

1. Abdul-Lateef Kola Abiola was born to the late MKO and Alhaja Simbiat Abiola on 1st July, 1962 (Age 60).

2. He was born in, and hails from Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital.

3. Due to health challenges and his mother’s movement between cities, Abiola had to go through several secondary schools; attending Ibadan Grammar School, Baptist High School, Maryland Comprehensive Secondary School, before going to Comprehensive High School, Aiyetoro, where he eventually finalized his senior secondary education.

4. He attended UC Berkeley and then Colorado State University for his undergraduate and MBA degrees in finance and business administration, respectively.

5. After returning to Nigeria, Abiola established the University Staff School in Akoka.

6. As would be expected, he was actively involved in running the massive empire of his billionaire father, M.K.O. Abiola, which included International Telephone and Telegraph (ITT) Nigeria, Radio Communications Nigeria (RCN), Wonderloaf Bakery, Abiola Farms, Concorde Airlines, Concord Press, etc., etc.

7. Kola Abiola was also not exempted from his father’s political struggles and persecutions and was arrested on one occasion on his alleged involvement in the death of his father’s first wife, Kudirat Abiola, which he was eventually cleared of.

8. He first got married to Victoria Arafat, before taking up a second wife, Olayinka Abiola, who died on October 16, 2010 in Los Angeles, California.

9. He owns a home in the uber luxurious Banana Island, valued at N800 million.

10. Unlike his late father, Kola Abiola maintains a private lifestyle but his net worth is believed to be in the region of $5 million.

QUOTE:
“I want to be president because I believe it is time for (a) complete reset of Nigeria. And I did not make any mistake by joining PRP.”
- Kola Abiola

2023: KOLA ABIOLA - 10 MUST-KNOWS

On June 6, 2022, the eldest son of the late Moshood Kashimawo Olawole Abiola GCFR, Mr. Kola Abiola emerged as the 2023 presidential candidate of the Peoples’ Redemption Party (PRP).

He defeated competition from Usman Bugaje, Patience Key, and Col. Gboluga Mosugu (rtd) to clinch the PRP presidential ticket.

Upon winning the ticket, Abiola pronounced that a victory for PRP at the presidential poll would be synonymous with that of his deceased father in the June 12, 1993 election and that his emergence would motivate younger people to vote and participate more in politics. These, however, remain to be seen.

Here are ten things you should know about Mr. Kola Abiola.

1. Abdul-Lateef Kola Abiola was born to the late MKO and Alhaja Simbiat Abiola on 1st July, 1962 (Age 60).

2. He was born in, and hails from Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital.

3. Due to health challenges and his mother’s movement between cities, Abiola had to go through several secondary schools; attending Ibadan Grammar School, Baptist High School, Maryland Comprehensive Secondary School, before going to Comprehensive High School, Aiyetoro, where he eventually finalized his senior secondary education.

4. He attended UC Berkeley and then Colorado State University for his undergraduate and MBA degrees in finance and business administration, respectively.

5. After returning to Nigeria, Abiola established the University Staff School in Akoka.

6. As would be expected, he was actively involved in running the massive empire of his billionaire father, M.K.O. Abiola, which included International Telephone and Telegraph (ITT) Nigeria, Radio Communications Nigeria (RCN), Wonderloaf Bakery, Abiola Farms, Concorde Airlines, Concord Press, etc., etc.

7. Kola Abiola was also not exempted from his father’s political struggles and persecutions and was arrested on one occasion on his alleged involvement in the death of his father’s first wife, Kudirat Abiola, which he was eventually cleared of.

8. He first got married to Victoria Arafat, before taking up a second wife, Olayinka Abiola, who died on October 16, 2010 in Los Angeles, California.

9. He owns a home in the uber luxurious Banana Island, valued at over N800 million.

10. Unlike his late father, Kola Abiola maintains a private lifestyle but his net worth is believed to be in the region of $5 million.

QUOTE:
“I want to be president because I believe it is time for (a) complete reset of Nigeria. And I did not make any mistake by joining PRP.”
- Kola Abiola

VladimirPutiin:
Interesting read. Those years when Obasanjo allocate elections figures in his Aso Rock villa.

Thanks for the compliment.

Nigeria's 2007 elections were remarkable in a number of ways. First, they came after eight turbulent years of democracy - the longest period since the country's independence from the British Government in 1960.

Secondly, it put paid to any inordinate ambition the incumbent president, Olusegun Obasanjo haboured of extending his stay in Aso Villa. Also, coming after his two-term rule, for the first time in the country's history, there was going to be a civilian-civilian transfer of power. Undoubtedly, it would have been even more remarkable if the opposition had managed to wrestle power from the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, but that was not to be.

In 2006, while Nigerians expected Obasanjo’s government to be winding down, the ex-military dictator apparently nurtured other ideas. He initiated a process of constitutional amendment which would grant him another term of four years. While there was general outcry among the populace against his plans, many believed the success with which some of his counterparts in several other African climes perpetuated their hold on power would have buoyed him.

One of the main opposers of Obasanjo’s infamous third term agenda was his vice-president, Atiku Abubakar, who himself had eyes on the presidential seat. Although his[b] (Obasanjo’s) attempt to rewrite the constitution in his favour was dead on arrival on the floor of Nigeria’s Sixth Senate,[/b] a battle line had been drawn between him and Atiku.

It was not surprising to many therefore when Obasanjo went against his assistant's ambition and chose to back another northerner, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua as his successor. An affable and simple character, Yar’Adua was from a very influential family in the North. He was governor of Katsina State from 1999 to 2007. His intellectual and moral capacity to lead the slumbering African giant was hardly in question. The other two top contenders, Atiku and another former military dictator, Muhammadu Buhari could not match Yar’Adua’s academic resume. He was a Master’s Degree holder, also famous for being the first Nigerian governor to ever declare his assets publicly.

What Nigerians questioned (and rightly so, as posterity would settle) was Yar’Adua’s physical capacity to function as president. In fact, he was repeatedly absent during his own election campaign, having to travel abroad to attend to health challenges. On one occasion, as his campaign team were rallying supporters in Ogun State, led by Obasanjo, the president had to call him on phone and asked to the hearing of the cheering crowd, on live television, “Umaru, they say you are dead; are you dead?”

Contrastingly, as other candidates were busy campaigning to woo voters and putting their houses in order in the build up to election day, Atiku was enmeshed in endless court cases in a bid to overturn the election administrator’s decision that he was not fit to contest, on the strength of an indictment by anti-graft agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC. It was not until April 16, just two days to the presidential election, that the Supreme Court, in a unanimous landmark decision, finally cleared Atiku to contest, declaring that only a court of competent jurisdiction, not the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, had the powers to indict an individual and void his right to freely contest an election.

Many questioned the veracity of the final 2007 election result released by INEC, who till date, cannot produce a state by state breakdown of voting figures. The election was widely regarded as the worst in Nigerian election administration history, with both local and international observers finding that it was deeply flawed. Even Yar'Adua, the election's chief benefactor, with 69.60% of votes, (24,638,063), recognized that the country's electoral process lacked legitimacy and that the 2007 elections fell short of international standards. In his words: “The April elections were so heavily marred by vote rigging that European Union observers said they fell far below basic international standards and were not credible.”

This general opinion, as newly sworn-in President Yar’Adua admitted, compelled his administration to inaugurate a 22-man electoral reform committee.

The fundamental question at this juncture is: What went wrong with the elections?

The answer to this lies in the electoral administration. The polls were characterized by widespread malpractice occurring throughout all stages of the elections, with failures in the late delivery of voting materials, late commencement of polls in most of the states, ballot box stuffing, allocation of votes where voting did not take place, falsification of votes, deliberate denial of election materials to perceived strong-holds of the opposition, and other such nefarious activities.

According to several sources, the ruling party rigged the results in advance, even for local government, in all but a handful of states as part of an intra-elite arrangement, unintentionally disclosing (accurate) 'results' to the press a few days before the election. Some states, notably Rivers, Ogun, Oyo, and Ekiti, had vote totals substantially above the number of registered voters. 2007 marked a shift from 'competitive rigging' to vote-allocation, or 'direct capture'. Furthermore, all rounds of the elections were characterized by unusually high levels of political violence. On the day of the election, 55 people were reportedly killed, while unofficial estimates put the total number of deaths at 200 across the country.

The electoral administrator, INEC, had mortgaged the public trust and was itself a pliant tool of the ruling PDP. INEC agreed that there were numerous irregularities and fraud in the 2007 race, but it blamed the political parties involved. Furthermore, the State Independent Electoral Commissions (SIECs) in charge of local government elections were said to be overwhelmingly partisan and incompetent.

No wonder, therefore, many consider the 2007 general elections in Nigeria as ‘stolen’ elections.

This is not to imply that the elections were without any redeeming quality: Most studies highlight that the media and civil society were more effective, and that electoral tribunals were in place to hear post-election issues. However, these are minor positives in an otherwise lacklustre picture. Fifteen years later, the jury is still out on whether the 2007 election was progress for Nigeria, or it was one systematically programmed for failure.

Our Nigerian presidential election series continues with the 2003 poll, which pitted the incumbent President Olusegun Obasanjo against other political party gladiators who had their eyes on his most prestigious seat.

With the country repeatedly failing to enjoy a sustained period of democracy, having had three previous republics cut abruptly by the military, many democratic enthusiasts and world leaders were hopeful that Nigeria’s fourth republic would pass its first major test – transiting from one four-year term to the next.

The fears of many across the world were assuaged when on April 14, 2003, elections were held, and by May 29, Obasanjo took a second oath-of-office as Nigeria’s democratically elected president. Although there were mixed reactions, with widespread reports of electoral malpractices during the election, a stable and extended democratic rule signposted a period of steady development for the nation. Over four years, Nigeria had shed-off its notorious image as a pariah state and its economy had been liberalized.

Obasanjo’s reelection saw him win by a landslide. The former military ruler garnered 24,456,140 votes, which was about 62% of the total votes cast, defeating his closest rival, Muhammadu Buhari by almost double the amount of ballots. The second runner up was former separatist leader, Chief Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, who managed a meagre 3.3% of votes. None of the other 17 contenders could afford to muster even 0.5% of votes individually.

All three contestants, Obasanjo, Buhari and Ojukwu were highly recognized ex-military personnel who enjoyed strong support within their respective geopolitical regions. But with his power of incumbency, Obasanjo and his party, the Peoples Democratic Party, easily made incursions into the North and the South-East, strongholds of Buhari and Ojukwu respectively. Unsurprisingly, while voting rigging was reported by election observers in literally all geopolitical zones, it was worse in the southern regions, with the ruling party allegedly resorting to violence by sponsoring thugs to confront stiffer opposition from other contending candidates and parties.

International Non-Governmental Organization (NGO), Human Rights Watch (HRW) reported that “Both Nigeria's federal and state elections in 2003 and local government elections in 2004 were marred by serious incidents of violence, which left scores dead and many others injured. The scale of the violence and intimidation, much of which went unreported, called into question the credibility of these elections.”

Also, the US and the EU urged the Nigerian government to fully investigate complaints of widespread fraud and irregularities, while congratulating Obasanjo for the successful conduct of the election and for securing a second term.

Two terms for President Obasanjo meant eight years of democracy in Nigeria, the longest yet in its challenging and checkered history. In all its evident imperfections, it was still preferable to military dictatorship. Finally the democratic experience was no longer an experiment; it had taken full swing.

#voxpopuli
#PresidentialElectionPulse2023

In 2015, for the first time in the history of presidential elections in Nigeria, the ruling party was defeated at the polls. This was an unprecedented feat, considering the fact that in the machinations and upheavals that characterize electioneering in the country, it is the norm for the ruling party to deploy a significant amount of state resources to secure its victory at the ballots, and this occasion was no different. But it was to no avail.

What the All Progressives Congress (APC) achieved in ousting the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) out of Aso Villa was nothing short of a miracle. By so doing, they had managed to deliver Nigeria’s highest and most coveted political seat to a Muhammadu Buhari, who many had previously written-off as a serial loser.

It took the mega merger of disenchanted individuals in the PDP and most of the other major political heavyweights that were not a part of the then-acclaimed ‘biggest political party in Africa’ to ensure that the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan did not get reelected. Contrary to what the present APC presidential candidate for the 2023 election, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu insinuated in his highly criticized viral video, several factors came to play in ensuring Buhari’s eventual victory; and this can hardly be credited to any single individual.

Not to discountenance Tinubu’s impact in the election: In the South-West, which is his stronghold, Buhari won about 57.1% of votes. This underscores the impact of Tinubu’s alliance with Buhari, because in 2011, he won only a meagre 4.8% of votes in the region.

That notwithstanding, in 2015 the former Lagos State governor’s influence in the South did not reflect in the other southern geopolitical zones, which the PDP swept completely. While the APC won five out of six south-western states in the presidential poll, it did not manage to win any of the eleven states in the South-East and South-South. This is one challenge the APC must overcome in order to be able to deliver the presidency to Tinubu in the forthcoming 2023 polls.

The above reality cannot be overemphasized if you consider that unlike in 2019, when the APC fielded a candidate from the North who easily won majority of votes across the northern states, making more inroads into the North with a Tinubu candidacy would be much more daunting. If each of the top contenders is able to secure majority votes in their respective regions, as traditional voting pattern often suggests, the APC will only be able to guarantee second runner-up position for Tinubu. A situation where Atiku wins majority of votes in the North; Peter Obi does likewise in the South-East and South-South, and Tinubu clears the South-West, will see Atiku capitalizing on the high northern voting population and emerging victorious.

This explains why major players in Tinubu’s camp are making overtures to Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State whose fingers got burnt twice, seeking the presidential and vice-presidential tickets in the PDP. Although Wike has repeatedly insisted that he has no plans of leaving the PDP, the APC knows he is far from being happy with the state of affairs within his party, and like a one who is pained from being treated wrongly by his partner, he is at his most vulnerable; feeling bruised and unappreciated. Without gainsaying, the APC’s ability to forge some sort of alliance with politicians that matter in the other southern regions will seriously boost Tinubu’s chances at the polls.

Two other factors that would hamper APC’s chances of getting Tinubu elected as Nigeria’s president will be based on religious sentiments and his ailing health condition.

As alleged, Tinubu’s original vice-presidential candidate, Ibrahim Masari was just a dummy, or as the new political lingo describes it, a place holder. Many have touted that a major cause for concern that delayed the selection of his running mate is the challenges a Muslim-Muslim ticket poses. Like Masari, his eventual choice as running mate, Kashim Shettima, is also a Muslim. Winning the presidency on a Muslim-Muslim ticket would be another first in the history of the country. Only M.K.O. Abiola almost pulled it off in 1993, but the election was infamously annulled. For decades, parties have always fielded a less problematic religiously balanced Muslim-Christian or Christian-Muslim tag team as their flagbearer and his second. Therefore, winning the 2023 presidential election with both the presidential candidate and his running mate as Muslims would be another miraculous feat by the APC.

As for Tinubu’s health challenges, which have been on public display on several occasions, it is almost becoming the norm for at least one of the top contending political parties in Nigeria to present a candidate who is not at an optimum, or even acceptable physical capacity.
First it was Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2007, with the “Umaru, are you dead?” episode; when the then incumbent president, Obasanjo, had to put a call through to him while on medical tourism abroad, at the same time his election campaign was at a crescendo at home; then the aged and almost-always-on-treatment-abroad Buhari. Ironically, it may be to Tinubu’s advantage that fortune seems to favour the sick when it comes to presidential election outcomes in Nigeria! Apparently, Nigerians have become inured to ailing presidents. Eventually, they are the ones who would be responsible for deciding whether it is best to have a fit and healthy president to steer this sinking colossus of a nation, or elect a leader that is just as sick as the country he intends to govern.

A final dynamic that differentiates the APC’s 2015 success from 2023, and would not work in their favour is the pitiable state of the nation. Except for those who choose to live in denial, the failures of the PDP that got them booted out in 2015 pales in comparison with the woes that the APC has inflicted upon Nigerians over the past seven years. Millions of Nigerians who were frustrated with the PDP and clamoured for ‘CHANGE’ did not bargain for the type of change the APC brought. For bringing Nigeria to her post-civil war nadir, the APC has lost the charm and privilege it had in its earliest days as the new bride, or the ‘angel you do not know’. Presently, Nigerians know the APC better, and it would present an uphill task for them, or for Tinubu, to convince the electorate that they have anything better to offer than what they have served already.

It is expected that in the coming months, the APC and Tinubu, its presidential candidate, as well as their army of campaign strategists and foot soldiers would carefully navigate the minefield that has been laid out herewith. Like all other contending parties, their work is well cut out for them. Bearing in mind that they succeeded in pulling off one miracle in 2015, who is to say they cannot achieve another for Tinubu in 2023?

#voxpopuli
#presidentialelectionpulse2023

On May 29, 1999, after 15 years, 7 months and 2 days of sustained pressure from local and international interests; of endless agitations and protests by pro-democracy activists, many of whom were jailed, and some martyred in the process, democracy was eventually restored to Nigeria.

Between the democratic governments of Alhaji Shehu Shagari, who was overthrown in 1983, and that of General Olusegun Obasanjo (rtd.), Nigeria had had 4 rulers, the last of which was General Abdulsalami Abubakar.

Abubakar was the chief beneficiary of the sudden death of one of Nigeria’s most dreaded military rulers – dark-goggled General Sani Abacha. Upon his demise, a high-powered meeting was allegedly held in Aso Villa amongst top echelons of the military and the general was considered as the most suitable officer to steer the affairs of the country and supervise her much needed transition to democratic governance.

On taking the reins of power, on June 9, the soft-spoken general’s assurance of handing over to a duly elected president was met with wide cynicism. This was not unexpected because his predecessors had also promised same, but never followed through on their assertions.

To ease the political tension and pacify political interests in the south-western region of the country who had felt shortchanged that one of their own, MKO Abiola; the supposed winner of the annulled June 12, 1993 presidential election, and had died fighting for his denied mandate, there was an unwritten political arrangement that power would shift to the South-West. Consequently,the two major contenders that vied for the highly coveted presidential seat were Obasanjo and Chief Olu Falae. Apart from both being of the same regional extraction, they also shared the unenviable experience of having been detained under the dictatorial Abacha regime.

Falae and Obasanjo were both eminently qualified for the presidency. Although Chief Falae, the economist from Ondo State, had served in previous governments in various capacities, most significant of which was Secretary to the Federal Government under Babangida, Obasanjo himself was a former military head of state.

To allay the fears of those in the polity who were not comfortable with the return of a past military ruler in agbada, Obasanjo’s campaign ran on one premise that during his time in jail, he had become reformed as a born-again Christian and his excessive military tendencies had been curbed. Coupled with the fact that he already enjoyed the backing of his counterpart ex-military generals, these different slants coalesced into giving him some electoral advantage over Falae.

Also, in a bid to balance ethno-religious sentiments, Obasanjo, of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Falae, his rival who was the flagbearer of a merger between Alliance for Democracy (AD) and All People's Party (APP), had each picked northern Muslims as their running mate. So they both ran on a South-North/Christian-Muslim ticket.Eventually, Obasanjo won by a landslide, polling 63% of votes against Falae’s 37%, and President Abdulsalami stayed the course by handing over to a democratically elected president in less than a year of his taking the helm of affairs.

At home and abroad, Nigeria’s return to democracy was widely celebrated as it offered a new lease of life to the hopes of hundreds of millions of Nigerians, and Africans at large, that the biggest black nation in the world had been returned to the path of fulfilling her immense potential, which had repeatedly been truncated by military juntas.

A new term has entered our political vocabulary. Hitherto known as 'proxy,' it has obtained a more glamorous moniker: 'placeholder' - a person standing in for a candidate for a certain political office pending the conclusion of other "underground spiritual games," as Afrobeat king, Fela, would say. The position's true occupant will then emerge, and the placeholder will be removed.

The placeholder card has been utilized on multiple fronts in the growing political drama leading up to 2023. Some ended in grief, some in delight. Bala Mohammed, governor of Bauchi State, appointed his Secretary to the State Government, Ibrahim Kashim Mohammed, as his stand-in while he pursued his presidential ambitions. When he failed, he effortlessly retrieved his governorship nomination.

Ahmed Lawan, the outgoing Senate president, was not so fortunate. Bashir Machina's projected replacement went rogue when he lost his quest for the presidency. He refused to return Lawan's All Progressives Congress, APC, senatorial nomination for Yobe North. Lawan was compelled to disclose his defection to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to challenge Machina. However, according to sources, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, whose chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, is rumoured to be a close friend of Senator Lawan, had allegedly recognized him as the APC candidate for the Yobe North Senatorial District.

Machina had threatened legal action against INEC to retrieve his ticket, but the electoral body has now cleared the air by certifying a true copy of the coveted primary result, declaring Machina the winner, with 289 out of 300 votes.

The more topical issues surrounding the placeholder fad are at the national level of politicking towards 2023. The smooth manner in which the PDP's presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, emerged as its nominee demonstrates that the party is now a well-oiled machine. It was also evident in the transparent manner in which Atiku selected Governor Ifeanyi Arthur Okowa of Delta State as his running partner. No placeholder nonsense here.

TheCable reported that Kabiru Masari was announced as the running mate of Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC). However, several political observers stated that the APC welfare secretary is merely a 'placeholder' until a final candidate is selected.

Tinubu's current ticket appears to be somewhat vulnerable, given that Masari is a dark horse with no electoral track record. This is in contrast to the Moshood Abiola/Babagana Kingibe Muslim/Muslim ticket that won the annulled presidential election on June 12, 1993. Tinubu has always admired this accomplishment, and he believes he can replicate Abiola's feat, given his almost infinite financial war chest, if he can overcome the Christian community's broad outcry. In today's Buharized Nigeria, it remains to be seen what a dark horse can do for a Tinubu-led Muslim/Muslim ticket.

There are still two problematic placeholder strategies in play. In the race to be in charge of politics in 2023, two political hotshots have risen to the top. Peter Obi of the Labour Party, and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian People's Party, NNPP, are the respective party leaders. On March 29, 2022, Kwankwaso quit the PDP and joined the NNPP. Obi quit the PDP on April 24, 2022, and joined the Labour Party on April 27, 2022, less than a month later.

Obi has been a member, leader, and presidential candidate of the LP for less than two months. Kwankwaso has served as the head and flagbearer of the NNPP for around three months. The two presidential candidates have inspired the formerly dormant youth population to arise and participate in the campaign to 2023. Obi has a large, quickly expanding following that utilizes social media and community action to set a new course for Nigerian politics and, ultimately, administration.

Obi is sparking a widespread rise in new PVC registrations among intending voters and new political actors willing to sacrifice resources and effort for a brighter future. They are a stark contrast to the millennials who work for the same corrupt and incompetent politicians who drove this country to its knees. Kwankwaso is also a rapidly expanding phenomenon in the Muslim North, which has a history of possessing substantial electoral capital.

Initially, there was a romantic notion that an Obi/Kwankwaso ticket under an LP/NNPP alliance might destroy the disastrous PDP and APC dominance of our political system. Both sides engaged in discussions over a prospective alliance. Obi's supporters were adamant that, although both candidates are exceptionally qualified, Obi should be the presidential candidate and Kwankwaso should be his running mate.

To Obi’s advantage, many have argued that it is the turn of the South-East to produce the next president. In addition, Obi's mentality and personal lifestyle are capable of resetting and swiftly turning around Nigeria. Kwankwaso has not indicated how he would restructure the post-Buhari era to meet his populist goals.

Both parties' inflated egos threaten to squander a potential game-changer. During the negotiations, Obi provided the INEC with the name of long-time ally and director-general of his campaign organization, Doyin Okupe, as stand-in. for his eventual running mate Johnson was forwarded by Kwankwaso. With the breakdown of negotiations, Kwankwaso may easily choose Johnson as his running partner because it is a balanced North/South, Muslim/Christian ticket, even though Johnson is an underdog.

Obi's situation may be more complicated. Obi would be left with the liability quagmire of a Christian/Christian, Southern/Southern ticket should the unthinkable occur (as is the case of Lawan and Machina). Obi's opponents might easily approach Okupe at night with irresistible offers and request that he remain as Obi's running mate. If that were to occur, Obi's aspirations for the presidency might be doomed. In this scorpion basket of a political atmosphere, he would be blamed for his naiveté. How long have Obi and Okupe been close for Obi to stake his entire political career on him?

If Okupe resists temptations and respectfully writes the INEC requesting to withdraw as Obi's running mate to properly balance the ticket, Okupe must be viewed as a man of uncommon integrity. Whether or not this occurs is left to be seen.

#VoxPopuli
#PresidentialElectionPulse2023
#PEP2023

In an effort to beat the deadline set by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), has quietly submitted his forms with Ibrahim Kabir Masari as the vice presidential nominee of the party, though it has been alleged that his name was submitted as a place holder for whoever eventually emerges as Tinubu's running mate.

Tinubu’s spokesman, Tunde Rahman, confirmed the development by stating that the forms were submitted on June 15, two days early.

"We wish to reiterate that HE, Asiwaju Tinubu is now prepared to run in the presidential election on February 25, 2023 to deliver progressive, good governance to our people," he said.

Alhaji Kabiru Faskari, an APC leader from Katsina state, confirmed Ibrahim Kabir Masari as the party's vice presidential nominee.

In an interview with Channels TV on Friday, Kabiru Faskari commented on the development, stating that Tinubu's decision to select Masari as his running mate was primarily his own.
He stated that Masari has a very good relationship with Tinubu and would be an asset to his ticket as a political expert with grassroots knowledge.

Ibrahim Kabir Masari hails from Masari, a village in Kafur Local Government Area of Katsina State, and is a relative of Aminu Bello Masari, the Governor of Katsina.

He has served on numerous committees and collaborated with prominent political figures such as the late President Umaru Musa Yardua, Adams Oshiomole, former President Goodluck Jonathan, and others.

This Day newspapers has however reported that Tinubu is still conducting extensive consultations regarding the choice of his running mate and will replace Masari as soon as the ideal candidate has been identified.

It is evident that the APC's internal crises have continued to impede its progress and ability to formulate a clear strategy for the 2023 elections. If these issues persist, the party's chances of winning the upcoming elections could be severely compromised.

The emergence of former governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2023 general elections was, without a doubt, a well-fought win. In a quite intriguing contest, he ousted 13 other candidates to secure the nomination.

Tinubu was one of the 23 candidates approved to participate in the primary, held in Abuja from 7 to 8 June. Before voting began, seven of the twenty-three candidates surprisingly withdrew and proclaimed their support for Jagaban, Tinubu’s popular alias, while another withdrew in favour of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. Also, one candidate withdrew but did not express support for any of his rivals. Consequently, only 14 of the 23 candidates participated in the primary.

A total of 2,203 accredited delegates were APC party members elected from Nigeria's 774 local government areas.

There are several key things to note about the APC primary election, one of which is that without the demand of party’s northern governors that power should transition to the South after eight years of northern rule, the entire process might have taken a different course. That would have left Tinubu’s aspiration in jeopardy.

Before the primary, the northern APC governors had insisted that the party must nominate a southern candidate for president. They eventually met with President Buhari to pitch this idea and gain his support. As a result, Governor Abubakar Badaru of Jigawa State withdrew from the race. Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State and former Zamfara State governor, Ahmed Sani, however, were not in consonance with their counterparts and continued running for the slot.

APC has fourteen northern governors and if they had adopted an opposing position, Tinubu could easily have lost the election, just as their unified approach had played a huge impact in his victory at the primary.

Secondly, it can be said that the most significant beneficiary of the APC primaries is the party itself. Numerous observers had projected the demise of a ruling party due to crises within the party. The party had been compelled to postpone its convention multiple times to, among other things, prevent the escalation of its issues.

With the successful conclusion of the convention, the APC's multifaceted and multilayered difficulties appear to have been momentarily put on hold.

Mr. Tinubu alluded to this in his victory speech: “It appeared some weeks back that some newspapers and many people were ready to write the obituary of this party. We put together and pulled ourselves as a cat of nine lives.”

“Shame on them, our party is alive,” he remarked.

With his emergence as the APC presidential flagbearer, Tinubu will dig it out with candidates of other parties, including fellow top contenders; Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, on the platform to be elected as the nation’s president in next year’s general election.

Hardly a week goes by without Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate for the 2023 election, finding his way into the top 10 trends in the Nigerian space of the microblogging site, Twitter. The #OBIdient movement, as his supporters like to be identified, is here and is for real. Rivaling the two political behemoths, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and its main rival, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the LP has taken its place as the undisputed Third Force in the coming election and would definitely be a game changer in the eventual election outcome.

While most supporters of the Anambra businessman and two-term governor of the state are quick to draw similarities between his fast-growing fan base and the #EndSARS movement, it is important that his supporters are made to appreciate that salient dissimilarities abound between the protests and their campaign to have Obi installed as Nigeria’s next president.

Although this might not be what they wish to hear at the present, especially going by the vitriol with which some of them attack netizens who entertain different ideas, the fact remains that such information would serve them well in the long term as it would better equip them for emerging victorious in the battles ahead.

The first point of note would be that, unlike the protests that called for the immediate disbandment of the notorious Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) unit, which was akin to a sprint race – lasting for barely 3 weeks, the race to the 2023 presidential election is a marathon. The burst of raw energy a sprinter needs to win his race is different from the stamina the quarter-miler must possess to lead the pack after running for several kilometers. Supporters of Peter Obi must therefore understand that it would be to their greater advantage if they spew less vitriol and waste such excessive emotion, but instead be more calculated and strategic about garnering more support for their preferred candidate.

Secondly, it must be emphasized that, as is widely accepted in life, it is easier to destroy than to build; destructive actions can afford to be impulsive and spontaneous. On the other hand, generating the amount of followership that can upturn the expectations of both the APC and the PDP would need very constructive and deliberate moves, which are inherently more difficult to achieve.

A popular blogger, Yomi Black drew the angst of the #OBIdient crowd when he tweeted about some of these issues. The entry point for the #EndSARS movement did not need any pass, but to make your #OBIdience count, you must possess your PVC, Permanent Voter’s Card. As much as the electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has attempted to streamline the process of obtaining a voter’s card, we know it can still be very daunting. Obi’s supporters must therefore be ready to take their loyalty beyond social media and put in the sacrifice to eventually cast their ballot on the day of the election. They must be ready to walk their talk.

Next point we will consider is that the #EndSARS movement did not have any individual that was the symbol of the cause. As original and refreshing as a Peter Obi candidacy may be, not only is he human, but he is also a politician. It should be anticipated that in his quest to become the leader of the biggest black nation on planet Earth, he would err and make some missteps. I hope that if and when this happens, the #OBIdient pack would cut him some slack as against becoming fickle-minded and abandoning the whole process.

Several sociopolitical analysts have concluded that one of the catalysts that sparked the #EndSARS protests was the COVID19 lockdown. In the aftermath of pandemic disruptions, unrest and protests for varying causes had become rampant globally. Like millions of people around the world, Nigerian youths were looking for an avenue to vent their anger and frustration; the wanton extra-judicial killings by rogue SARS officers provided the perfect outlet. This is worth considering so that supporters of Peter Obi would realize that the task before them is more arduous and of a more complex nature than #EndSARS. While it may be argued that the youths are equally or even more frustrated with corrupt politicians and the wasteful governance they have inflicted on the nation, there is no unprecedented situation like being holed up indoors that would serve as the tinder to ignite the fire that would overwhelm an obsolete, obtrusive and most oppressive order.

To drive home the gargantuan nature of the project that is before Peter Obi’s supporters, let us look at the numbers. In 2019, 27,324,583 was the total number of valid votes for the presidential election. The winner, Muhammadu Buhari, polled over 15 million (55.5%) votes while the first runner up, the PDP candidate for the 2023 election, Abubakar Atiku mustered about 11 million (41.2%) votes. All the other parties that went to the ballot were only able to account for 3.3% of votes. With the total number of registered voters standing at 82,344,107, only 35% turned up for the election. Voter apathy has always been a thing in Nigerian elections.

From the INEC demographics, the most active voting population ranges from ages 18 – 35 (51.1%) and 36 – 50 (30%). Fortunately for the #OBIdient movement, this demographic is also the most active on social media where their candidate is widely popular. So even after putting into consideration the percentage of habitual voters, those that vote along ethnic and party lines, if Peter Obi’s supporters can wake up even half of the docile 65% (over 50 million) of registered voters that do not vote, the narrative would have changed completely.

In conclusion, supporters of the man nicknamed ‘Okwute’ (meaning rock) by close associates of his, like the biblical David, will need to have their back packs loaded with enough rocks to last several battles, that they would have to deploy strategically in other to win the war and set this country on the path to a more prosperous future. Also, every Israel needs a Moses, and Peter Obi seems to be one of the few that can lead us out of this post-independence subjugation.

The nation’s founding fathers fought for a dream, which has since been hijacked by a most vicious and self-perpetrating bunch that must be expunged. Next year’s poll presents another opportunity for Nigerians to reenact this dream. #EndSARS was good, but #OBIdience must be better. Like the wise saying goes; to be forewarned is to be forearmed.

#VoxPopuli #PresidentialElectionPulse2023 #PEP2023

Any postmortem of past presidential election outcomes in Nigeria would be incomplete without including the annulled 1993 presidential election. If the late sage, Obafemi Awolowo was quoted to be Nigeria’s "best president that never was," then the presidential election of 1993 could be considered the country's "best election that never was."

Considered one of the freest, fairest, and most credible polls in the country's history, the annulment of the election led to a series of events that ultimately resulted in the demise of Nigeria's Third Republic.

After the country's Second Republic was truncated by Buhari and his cohorts in 1983, it took Ibrahim Babangida, who ousted Buhari in 1985, an additional eight years, under intense pressure from local and foreign sources, to finally conduct a presidential election.

The annulled 1993 election featured only two parties: the Social Democratic Party (SDP) with Moshood Kashimawo Olawale (MKO) Abiola as their candidate, and the National Republican Convention (NRC) with Alhaji Bashir Tofa.

Here, antecedents become crucial to the voting habits of the electorate throughout the various geopolitical zones. Abiola, who was from the South-West region of the country, with an overwhelming status as one of Africa's most prominent commercial magnates and philanthropists, enjoyed huge support from all geopolitical zones. Although his dalliance with previous regimes, which had resulted in some questionable dealings, had left him with some baggage, his personal aura and charisma, along with an unrivaled generosity that had benefited countless Nigerians, put him leagues ahead of his adversary.

A closer examination of both candidates' credentials reveals that they were both well-educated and possessed the necessary physical abilities to serve as president. Although Tofa, from the North-West region, had been more involved in Nigerian politics, Abiola, renowned as the pillar of sports in Africa, was practically a household name in national conversation.

On the day of the poll; June 12, 1993, approximately 14 million Nigerians flocked to their polling stations to vote in a much-anticipated election that would end a decade of undesirable and undemocratic military dictatorship. Unofficial election results indicate that Abiola received 8,341,309 votes (58.36 percent) compared to Tofa's 5,957,087 votes (41.08 percent) (41.64 percent ).

With global attention focused on the world’s most populous black nation and the outcome of the election, all who had been waiting anxiously for the announcement of final result of the poll with bated breaths, were shocked to their bones when the head of state, President Ibrahim Babangida, on June 24, 1993, went on air to announce the cancellation of the Humphrey Nwosu-led National Electoral Commission (NEC) conducted election, on grounds of election irregularities. This marked one of the most anticlimactic events in Nigeria’s political history.

The infamous occurrence ushered in a new wave of unrests, volatility, and unpredictability; and the rest is history.

Babangida was eventually forced to resign, or (in his words) "step aside"; Ernest Shonekan was installed as the nation's interim president, and after just 84 days, General Abacha ousted him and imposed another five years of military rule on Nigerians. The dark-goggled general dismantled all democratic mechanisms at the national and state levels upon assuming power.

In 1994, Abiola, dissatisfied with the annulment of the election, declared himself to be the nation's legitimate president and ended up in Abacha's military prison on treason charges. He stayed detained for four years until he allegedly died of heart-related illness in 1998.

Today, Abiola remains a celebrated national figure. June 12, the date of the ill-fated election is commemorated as Nigeria’s Democracy Day, and the National Stadium, Abuja named in his honour.

As reactions continue to trail the recent catastrophe that struck the quiet town of Owo, Ondo State, on Sunday, 5th June, 2022, involving the mass killing of scores of worshippers at St. Francis Catholic Church, it is imperative that we pay close attention to how those who have thrown their hats into the ring for the 2023 presidential election have proposed to deal with rising insecurity in the country.

Such senseless attacks are becoming more rampant, and anyone who is serious about governing this nation at such in a critical point in its history must let voters know how he/she intends to deal with this malaise.

The ability to see through the shenanigans of the political class and make election choices that are not based on ‘stomach infrastructure’ and immediate pecuniary benefits, but on their propositions for dealing with issues, will go a long way in determining the fate of over 200 million Nigerians.

Condemning the attack, the Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, Peter Obi wrote via his twitter handle; “We really should not sit back and look. We shouldn’t allow a senseless few/bunch set this country ablaze. There is no other place we can call home… Imagine, we must rise above the din. Enough is enough! I really can’t help this.”

Calling upon activists, he demanded a national protest be staged. He said, “Can there be a national protest tomorrow against these senseless killings in the country? Everybody should march out to the government house and demand the people we elected to act fast. The way forward shouldn’t just be tweets and Twitter trends alone. The battle is here already and the moment we realize the better.”

Earlier in May, he had noted that continued insecurity in Nigeria emanates from the failure of the government to invest in human capital over the years, he stated that the solution is to “to pull people out of poverty”, by “investing in our youths to be productive”. He believed that people would be less likely to be pushed to join terror groups if they were more occupied with productive activities.

On his part, the presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, also condemned the attack.
In a post on Facebook, the former vice president condoled with the Catholic Church over the incident.

According to Atiku: “I do hope that the state government and relevant security agencies will leave no stone unturned in apprehending the criminals and bringing them to justice… I pray that someday, very soon, we shall have a lasting solution to these painful episodes.”

On Monday, in a seven-point agenda, Atiku revealed that ‘national security’ would be a key thrust of his administration through which he highlighted promoting professionalism and restructuring in the police force, introducing welfare initiatives, strategic engagements with state and non-state actors and increasing the number of security personnel to meet UN standards.

The All Progressives Congress (APC) national leader, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, called the attack an unimaginable evil and wickedness of the highest proportion.

Tinubu, who has just emerged the APC’s candidate for the 2023 presidential election, while sympathizing with the government and the people of the state, called on the security agencies to do everything necessary to hunt down the perpetrators and bring them to justice. Additionally, he pledged the sum of N50 million to the victims and another N25 million to the Owo catholic church.

During his visit to Yobe, earlier in May, he said “I view issue of insecurity with utmost seriousness and will give it the highest priority in my administration”. In 2021, he had noted that he would employ a unique approach to solving the security problems in the country. Stating that the problem is of an economic nature, and he would make attempts to alleviate the economic issues such as poverty, unemployment etc., within the region.

Review of the PDP Presidential Primaries

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential primaries were held on May 28, 2022, and it sparked different feelings in different parts of the country. For seasoned presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar and his supporters, the victory dance lasted all night. His resounding success in the primaries attests to his perpetual political importance and, and for others, an unrelenting strangulating influence inside the PDP.

The nomination and statement of interest forms were purchased by 17 people. Two were excluded by the screening committee led by former senate president, David Mark. A widely popular aspirant, Peter Obi had opted out of the contest and resigned from the party. In another twist of events, Sokoto State governor, Aminu Tambuwal stood aside for Atiku, citing patriotism and love for the party as his reasons for doing so, leaving 13 contenders.

Those familiar with the PDP and the Nigerian political milieu had expected Atiku Abubakar's victory well before the election. Despite the efforts of other candidates, it was evident to observers that Atiku was the only candidate capable of defeating himself. Dr. Peter Obi's withdrawal from the race, allegedly after learning of a northern plot to mobilize for the return of one of their own, led to this conclusion.

Key Takeaways from the event

1. Each election cycle in Nigeria reveals the country's unpleasant centrifugal underbelly, reminding us that the frequent screams of togetherness, even among people from the same regional politico-cultural bloc, are like whited tombs concealing death and decay. Senator Bukola Saraki was seen as one of the leading candidates and conducted most of his campaigning in the north. For him, the northern bloc votes were sufficient to secure his win. He was less concerned about the South East and South South, where it appeared that Nyesom Wike maintained power. Saraki, like his father before him, was reminded that there is a distinction between northerners from the north-central region and those from (politically referred to as) the "core-north." This means that the "One-north" we all hear about in the grander political design stretches only from the left to the right of the map and does not extend below.

2. The emergence of Atiku is reflective of the PDP across the country. From Sokoto to Bayelsa and from Lagos to Borno, the same leaders who were at the helm the day the party was founded continue to strive to maintain power. This is indicative of a political party that is aging or has aged, and I doubt there will be a PDP in the years to come without deliberate regeneration, and even that is contingent on whether Atiku wins the presidency in this election cycle. An opportunity for a generational shift has been lost.

3. Despite his repeated defeats in Nigeria's presidential elections, Atiku Abubakar has demonstrated beyond any reasonable doubt that he possesses the strength, stamina, and tenacity to remain a formidable force. This may be a quality that serves him well, and potentially the nation as well. His level of commitment and consistency is unparalleled. With bloc votes from the North, and particularly if the incumbent APC fails to handle its own succession with finesse and care, Atiku may have a smooth path to the president this time around.

SOYINKA, OWN UP TO THE CONSEQUENCES OF YOUR INACTION

Like Pontius Pilate, as renowned Nobel laureate and famed sociopolitical critic Prof. Wole Soyinka, treads on the comforts and security his elevated status in the society provides him, satisfied that he has cleared himself of any culpability in the eyes of the public, he should observe closely that the bowl of liquid which he is about to cleanse his hands in is not filled with clear water, but with the blood of the innocent.

With his latest press conference, informing Nigerians that he never supported the election of President Buhari, whatever modicum of respect Nigerians still hold for the octogenarian, especially those of a younger generation, is being eroded.

Such equivocation by Soyinka is very insensitive to the sensibilities of Nigerians, especially at a time when insecurity is so heightened such that it is no longer news to hear scores of lives being killed or maimed, victims kidnapped, women and minors raped across northern cities and communities on a daily basis. So, sir, in your compulsion to exonerate yourself of any responsibility in installing an 8-year rule of one of Nigeria’s most incompetent governments, did you take a moment to ask yourself the consequences of your actions or inaction?

By his own admittance, not only was Soyinka vociferous in pillorying Goodluck Jonathan and campaigning against his reelection, the revered critic also claimed not to have exercised his right to participate in choosing who became Nigeria’s next president. And you excoriate Jonathan for his actions and inaction?

Election outcomes are critical to the development of a nation and voting choices are not to be treated flippantly. By his actions, Soyinka railroaded the Jonathan administration out of Aso Villa and by his inaction, he left the gates open for the Buhari-led government to ride in triumphantly. So, would it not have been better he just owned up to his failings and let Nigerians decide what dignity he still deserves as one who has been a highly respected voice in the polity?

In electing our next president, the words of American investor and one of the world’s wealthiest persons come to mind. “You’re looking for three things, generally, in a person;” says Buffett, “Intelligence, energy, and integrity. And if they don’t have the last one, don’t even bother with the first two.” These translate to the physical, intellectual and moral capacities of the aspirant, and not merely about age, tribe, or religion as the contention is often about. Leadership is beyond all of that; it is about capacity. Does the individual have the capacity to govern and to deliver on his/her mandate?

Without critically considering his leadership antecedents, millions of Nigerians jumped on the Buhari train when they heard the powerful word – CHANGE! “Anyone else was better than a clueless Jonathan,” they retorted when confronted with the reality that the option was a dictator who lacked both the intellect and vigour to rule. That is where the respected playwright missed the script.

Like 2015, 2023 provides another opportunity to effect a leadership change in Nigeria. We must not be sold on a leader that paints illusory pictures with vain words, empty promises and catchy slogans. We need a leader that understands the complexities of the problems that have turned this great nation into a sinking ship; a leader that has demonstrated enough capacity to be able to redirect the trajectory of a nation with so great a promise from a land of waste to fulfilling her great potential.

It is bad enough that after their primaries, the frontline parties may present options we may not necessarily fancy, but choices still have to be made, no matter how difficult they may be: Because the consequences of our actions and inaction, unlike Soyinka failed to own up to, will determine the fate of our dear nation, and the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of Nigerians, born and unborn.

2023 ELECTIONS: BITTER LESSONS FROM 1983 PRESIDENTIAL POLL

That both the political class and the voting population in Nigeria seem to ever exhibit an accursed disconnect from lessons that should have been learnt from mistakes of the past, which continue to be repeated, leaves us in abject despair, perennial suffering and woe. The 1983 presidential election experience was one that threw us into 16 years of our most extended period of military rule, and was completely avoidable.

It was widespread allegations of voting irregularities in the South-West that led to heavy protests which morphed into a nationwide crisis, the 1966 coup, and then a civil war (costing the nation over a million lives) and invited men of the armed forces to impose dictatorship and a retrogressive unitary system of governance for thirteen uninterrupted years. It wasn’t until 1979 that the regime of Nigeria’s then head of state, Obasanjo organized elections to return us to the path of democracy.

1979 – 1983 was our second attempt at the democratic experience – the second republic. Though election observers, as well as the polity attested to cases of rigging in the 1979 polls, 1983 turned out to be even worse. The incumbent, President Shagari allegedly exercised inordinate influence to guarantee victory by a wider margin, against all expectations that it was going to be more closely contested than the previous polls. With the figures of registered and accredited voters released by the Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO) being significantly higher than the previous election, allegations were rife that the numbers were inflated, and served as a precursor for widely reported cases of vote padding and election malpractice.

The 1983 elections fiasco brought an end to the presidential aspirations of the first runner-up in both elections, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, who the Biafran champion, Chief Ojukwu famously referred to as ‘the best president Nigeria never had’ upon his demise in 1987, less than five years after.

Alongside the second runner-up, Chief Nnamdi Azikiwe, Awolowo was one of Nigeria’s brightest minds and foremost pre-independence activists, and both enjoyed massive nationwide support. The capacity of both individuals to lead Africa’s most populous nation of about 100 million people was never in doubt. Physically, intellectually and morally, they would easily have trounced each of the four other contestants. Awo and Zik, as they were popularly known, were both well studied, as against a Shagari who's highest qualification was from a teachers training college. Politically, they had also demonstrated exceptional ability to govern, having previously served as premiers of their respective regional governments, as well as in several other top political positions.

The complicity of Nigeria’s electoral umpires in election illegalities and irregularities did not begin today. It took the manipulative tendency of the electoral body, in a pattern that persists till date, of delaying the announcement of votes from key northern states to upturn whatever figures the eastern and western states sum up to. The success of the dark forces that manipulated the election outcome in installing an unpopular candidate culminated in the most short-lived democratically elected government in the history of Nigeria. After resuming his second term on October 1, 1983, the Shehu Shagari government was overthrown in a coup d’état on December 31 of the same year.

Enter, the first coming of Muhammadu Buhari, and akin to the second, exacerbated travails for millions of Nigerians, due to leadership ineptitude.

Key Takeaway from the APC National Convention

Crisis-ridden All Progressives Congress (APC), at the behest of its number one citizen and president of the country, Muhammadu Buhari, finally held its much postponed convention last weekend, surviving doomsday predictions about its possible collapse under the weight of its own inconsistencies.

The convention, on the other hand, ended as a parody of the APC's cloned elder brother, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). As with the PDP during its own convention, when nearly all contested offices, including the all-important chairmanship position, were cornered by defecting fair-weather APC politicians lacking principle, vision, or allegiance to any ideological orientation, so it was with the APC.

Just as Iyorchia Ayu, an APC defector, won the PDP chairmanship, Abdulahi Adamu, a founding member of the PDP and President Buhari's preferred candidate, won the APC chairmanship. Another PDP defector, Iyiola Omisore, a controversial divisive politician and former APC tormentor, was appointed APC National Secretary. The National Women Leader went to Betta Edu who decamped from PDP to APC only in 2021.

Other new members of the National Working Committee (NWC) include Muazu Bawa Rijau, who will serve as National Vice Chairman North-Central, and Comrade Mustapha Salihu as National Vice Chairman North-East; Isaac Kekemeke as National Vice Chairman South-West; Victor Giadom as National Vice-Chairman South-South, and the immediate past Director-General of the Progressive Governors Forum, Salihu Lukman will serve as the National Vice Chairman, North-West.

Dr. Ijeoma Arodiogbu is the new National Vice Chairman, South-East. While Zainab Abubakar Ibrahim emerged as Deputy National Women Leader amongst many others.

If we needed any more proof that these main stream political parties lack soul, vision, or ideological orientation, the relative ease with which serial defectors clinched a notable amount of significant positions in either party is all we need.

ASSESSING THE 1979 NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

If we do not understand our past, how do we forge a better future? With the 2023 elections approaching, it is becoming increasingly essential to investigate Nigeria's presidential electoral history and discover fundamental variables that have greatly influenced voting outcomes, for good or otherwise, at every phase of the country's history.

The 1979 presidential election, Nigeria’s first ever, will be the focus of this commentary. The race featured five main candidates: Shehu Shagari of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), Obafemi Awolowo of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Nnamdi Azikwe of the Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP), Ibrahim Waziri of the Great Nigeria People’s Party (GNPP), and Aminu Kano of the People’s Redemption Party (PRP).

In the context of the rational choice theory, voters are like customers with resources to expend. In this sense, the resources are their votes and it is critical to assess voting decisions against the election outcome objectively. The voter, like any other consumer, has an objective which they desire or seek to maximize; their desire could be power or some other distinct interest.

Given the population distribution among the states, the party most likely to win must secure the support of the northern states, or at the very least split the northern vote. Due to their ethnic identities, Awolowo and Azikwe would have found it more challenging than their competitors to outdo a united northern front. Now, among the three other contestants, Aminu Kano's political ideals were not strong enough to influence the North as he seemed distanced from popular public opinion. The Waziri-led GNPP was also in a disadvantaged position due to his refusal to transfer leadership to stronger prospects within his party.

As such, Shehu Shagari, who ended up garnering 33.77% of total votes was always a likely winner for the 1979 presidential election. Due to its early origins, Shagari’s party, the National Party of Nigeria, had a strong northern base. Another consideration worthy of note is the fact that other minority interests backed the NPN, in a bid to be protected under a new administration.

Power dynamics haven't changed much over the decades. Although the North, with their population, continues to have the greatest influence and has an advantage over other ethnicities in swaying the popular vote, minority elements also play a significant part in the dynamics of Nigerian politics. Nigeria's first democratically elected president, Alhaji Shehu Shagari, an indigene of north-western Sokoto State, won the 1979 election polling over a third of the votes cast across the nation's 19 states and was inaugurated as president on the 1st of October, 1979, at age 54.

SocialJustice:
Governor Umahi of Kogi state? His handlers are as useless as him.

Never one to shy from a fight, we are still waiting for his response to Umahi accusing him of being a petty thief of state resources.

Error duly noted. FYI, this is not a sponsored post.

RACE TO 2023 PRESIDENCY: NYESOM WIKE

As the race to become the chief executive officer of Africa’s largest economy heats up, top politicians who had managed to prevaricate when confronted on their presidential ambition are finally coming to the fore.

Outspoken and often abrasive figure, Ezenwo Nyesom Wike, the executive governor of Rivers State, in a visit to his Benue State counterpart, on March 27, 2022, finally informed the public that he has also his eyes on Aso Villa.

Coincidentally (or otherwise), he has consistently hogged the headlines in the nation’s media space since the turn of the year. We will also be consistent in serving you “10 Must Knows” about our presidential hopefuls, on this occasion, about the one recently named ‘Mr. Projects’ by none other than the vice-president of the country.

1. Hailing from Ikwerre, Rivers State, Wike was born on 13th December, 1963 (Age 58).

2. He completed his primary and secondary education in his home state, going on to obtain a Bachelor’s degree in Law, and then a Master’s degree in Political and Administrative Studies at the Rivers State University of Science and Technology (RSUT), between which he attended the Nigerian Law School.

3. After a brief stint in legal practice, he was elected executive chairman of Obi-Akpor local government area (1999-2007) and appointed chief of staff to the state governor (2007-2011).

4. In 2011, he was appointed junior education minister and later promoted to senior minister two years later.

5. As a leader in the Education Ministry, Wike demonstrated innovative leadership qualities by piloting several ground-breaking programmes, notable among which were the providing millions of northern Almajiri children with access to quality education and constructing special girls-education schools for less privileged girls across 16 states of the federation.

6. Resigning from his ministerial post, in 2015, he signed up to contest in the Rivers State governorship election, which he won. He is currently rounding up a second term with a little over a year left to serve.

7. Never one to shy away from a fight, Wike has been involved in countless conflicts with politicians and groups, which list includes, the presidency; his former boss Rotimi Amaechi; operatives of the State Security Service; Governor Umahi of Ebonyi State; Edo State Governor, Godwin Obaseki, etc., etc.

8. Wike holds the Commander of the Order of the Niger (CON) national award and has also won several awards as minister and as governor.

9. He has been ranked as the second richest governor in Nigeria with an alleged net worth of $500 million.

10. Wike is a Christian, and is happily married with three children.

QUOTE:
"At 61 years, Nigeria is full of enmity, full of divisions, hatred, ethnicity; a country that cannot put themselves together. Everybody has (a) responsibility, so ask yourself questions, have I played my own part?"

- Ezenwo Nyesom Wike

2023 Presidency: Atiku, Saraki, and co, already eaten their cake

As different interests in the foremost opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) continue to enlarge the zoning discourse, it is imperative that Nigerians, especially the voting population are reminded of significant events that played into the hands of the ruling party in the run up to the 2015 polls. The decamping of several political heavyweights in the then ruling PDP to merge with opposing forces to form the All Progressives Congress (APC), guaranteed their victory and threw Nigerians into eight years of what many would argue has been the worst in the history of the supposed Giant of Africa.

While no one can, or should deny the likes of Atiku, Saraki and Tambuwal their right to vie for the 2023 presidency, the electorate, who are wont to exhibiting a very short collective memory, should not forget events of the recent past.

If Nigerians can endeavour to make more informed, and less sentimental decisions at the ballot, our country would be better off today. In 2015, it was in the quest for “change” that millions of voters, old and young alike, opted for an ex-military dictator to one of the nation’s most democratic leaders in history.

When major players in the PDP needed to remain unified against local and international forces that wanted the Goodluck Jonathan presidency out at all costs, several northern elements in the PDP, like Atiku, Saraki and Tambuwal, defected to team up with the northern candidacy of APC’s Muhammadu Buhari. Eight years on, Nigerians are wailing in regret, struggling everyday to survive the untold hardship that saw the price of petrol rise from N97 to over N200; the price of a bag of local rice from lesser than N10,000 to almost N30,000; diesel from N145 to N700; and an inflation rate kept at single digit for two years soaring to over 15% for the whole of Buhari’s 8-year administration.

After jumping ship to successfully install another eight years of northern presidency, it is morally untenable that the same band wagon of politicians have returned to insist that the PDP must not zone its presidency to the South. Sadly, most Nigerian politicians have never been known to uphold morality over their selfish interests.

Placing your interests above that of your party, and of Nigerians, by defecting is bad enough. Worse still is making the nation, at such a critical moment in our development, go through eight years of leadership failure. It is therefore mind boggling that after eating their cake by successfully working to enthrone Buhari, they have returned to the PDP to attempt to perpetuate the dominance of the northern oligarchy that has eternally failed the nation. They should not be allowed to eat their cake, and have it.

However the PDP resolves its internal party wrangling; to zone presidency to the South or not, in making election choices, Nigerians should not forget the selfish antecedents of this lot and the hardship they imposed on millions of Nigerians who have become desolate with the unbearable living conditions that their actions have caused the nation.

Parachoko:
The 2023 elections will be peaceful.

It will be more peaceful than the 2019 presidential election.

And hopefully more credible with signing of the new electoral act

OyeofIkoTuN:
some people said no election

We also heard such during previous elections

Why 2023 elections might be Nigeria’s most consequential

"Elections have consequences." These three words, spoken by former United States president, Barack Obama, during a meeting with congressional Republicans just three days into his first presidential term, in January 2009, should serve as the tagline for Nigeria's current political climate.

Nigerians are alarmed by the abysmal leadership currently on offer by the political class, and we eagerly await some form of rescue mission at the 2023 general elections. This is especially important given that the country is deeply divided along its fault lines, with the drumbeats of secession becoming louder and more insistent among ethnic groups. Furthermore, due to the complicity, inefficiency or negligence of the security forces, banditry, kidnappings, terrorism, and other forms of criminality are more prevalent than ever before. Economic difficulties and soaring inflation have exacerbated endemic poverty, with more Nigerians falling below the poverty line over the last six years. In fact, many hold that the country is worse off with this leadership than with the one that was rejected by voters in 2015.

We appear to be in a hole, with the country teetering on the verge of a cliff due to inept leadership. As the first law of holes, a time-honored aphorism, states: "If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.” The reason is straightforward. Digging a hole makes it deeper and thus more difficult to escape. It is a metaphor that implies that when one is in an untenable situation, it is best to stop exacerbating the situation. As it is for individuals, so is it for collectives aggregated into nations.

It is becoming increasingly vital to look beyond the problem and the terrible perpetuation of decadence; it is now time to think about transformation and how we may bring about the change we desire. Clearly, the country's two biggest political parties have failed miserably and are perhaps undeserving of patronage. The storm of defections and internal wrangling only confirms that the only difference between the two parties is their nomenclature.

So, what are Nigeria's prospects? In addition to having catastrophic leadership across the board, the nation requires a breath of fresh air. It needs leadership that understands, demonstrates, and is willing to go all-in with the Nigerian people. To understand is to comprehend the concept of purposeful and results-driven leadership. We need a new generation of leaders who understand the issues, are clear-headed, and determined to solve them. Insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, terrorism and sectarian violence, for example, are blights on national development and should not be allowed to continue indefinitely. Oil dependence in the face of zero percent refining capability is a misnomer and an albatross around the neck of economic sustainability.

Furthermore, we need a new generation of leaders who understand that sustainable growth and security are impossible where tiers of government are hampered and reliant on the federal government for monthly allocations; as opposed to true federalism, which empowers states and local councils to control their resources and develop competitively at their own pace. Only modern and purposeful leadership, with the aforementioned qualities, and many more, will be sufficient.

To be acceptable to the majority, such paradigm shifts, to say the least, are hallmarks of respectable personalities with sound character attributes - credible, trustworthy, and consistent. Leadership is defined by credibility, and trust can only be earned.

The question is, where are such personalities that can be acceptable to the majority of Nigerians, regardless of age-old biases? Where have all the Nigerians who are enamored with unbreakable principles and integrity gone? Nigeria and beleaguered Nigerians require them more than ever as replacements for those who only talk about integrity but never live up to it.

It is undeniable that Nigeria has entered a period of transition – a critical period of leadership transition. As a result, we as a nation must look beyond primordial sentiments of ethnicity, religion, and age cap, and prioritize noble character, commitment, and capacity in order to build a country that is as rich as it is diverse. In reality, our desire to transform a broken nation into a hopeful one necessitates electing a more committed leadership and citizen participation than Nigeria has ever had.

RACE TO 2023 PRESIDENCY: PETER OBI

Peter Gregory Obi, the Peoples Democratic Party vice-presidential candidate in the 2019 general election, has declared interest to run for the presidency in 2023.

His intention was revealed on Tuesday, February 1, 2022, via his verified Twitter page. Obi, though, gave a caveat that must be met before he officially joins the race; stating that he would only welcome the opportunity to serve as president of Nigeria if the PDP zones the ticket to the South.

Here are some interesting facts you should know about Peter Obi:

1. A devoted Catholic, Obi was born on 19th July, 1961, and is a native of Agulu in Aguata Local Government Area of Anambra State.

2. After completing his secondary school education at Christ the King College, Onitsha, he was admitted to the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, in 1980, and graduated with a B.A. (Hons) in Philosophy in 1984.

3. His academic curiosity led him to Ivy League and Oxbridge schools outside of Nigeria. He attended Harvard Business School in Boston, the London School of Economics, Columbia Business School in New York, the Institute for Management and Development in Switzerland, Kellogg Graduate School of Management in the United States, Oxford University, and Cambridge.

4. Peter Obi was a successful businessman before venturing into politics. He held prominent positions in a number of organizations, working for companies such as Next International Nigeria Ltd, Guardian Express Mortgage Bank Ltd, Guardian Express Bank Plc, Future View Securities Ltd, among others.

5. By dint of some sheer doggedness, emerging victorious in several legal challenges, Obi successfully served out two terms as governor of Anambra State under the All Progressive Grand Alliance, APGA. First of all, for three years, he challenged the 2003 guber poll results and had it overturned in his favour. Just seven months into his first tenure, he was impeached by the state house of assembly; again he went to court and was reinstated as governor. Lastly, after the conduct of the 2007 general election to bring in a new governor, Obi went to court and won, on the grounds that having been sworn-in in 2006, he is entitled to a full four-year tenure and that the conduct of the 2007 was against the principle of lis pendens. By 2010, another poll was conducted and he was reelected.

6. In April 2015, he was appointed by former President Goodluck Jonathan as the Chairman of the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC).

7. Mr. Obi was one of the individuals whose ‘hidden’ business activities were exposed by the Pandora Papers project. Following the report, Premium Times alleged that Peter Obi had broken several laws as a result of his business dealings; by continuing to act as director in several of his business interests and failing to declare all his assets to the Code of Conduct Bureau. In his rebuttal in an Arise TV interview, Obi asserted categorically; “I did not in any respect whatsoever violate any law before, during and after my stewardship as the governor of Anambra.”

8. He is also a member of the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG), the Nigerian Chartered Institute of Bankers, and the British Institute of Directors (IOD).

9. ‘Okwute’, meaning ‘rock’, as Obi is fondly called by close associates, is quoted by several sources to be worth about $10 million.

10. He tied the nuptial knot with Margaret Brownson Usen in 1992, and they are blessed with two children.

QUOTE:

“To you young people, take back your country…it is your future they are toying with.”
- Peter Obi