Mankind2024:
Do help us to find the support and resistance line with adjusted volatility index within a tentative time frame.

...not sure NGX has index that measures volatility. However, there are many TA tools that can be used to estimate volatility, one of such is ATR, average true range. The chart below depicts a monthly adjusted volatity levels (highlights) for our All-Share Index.

Support and resistance lines were provided in the previous chart as well.

Agbalowomeri:


Well you wouldn't know that in February abi. It only becomes clear recently

...correct! Becomes clear as recent as April

ositadima1:


A lion remains a lion, whether it roams freely in the bush or lives captive in a zoo. 😂

Abeg who is the lion here.... hope it is not the white lion of kogi state type you ment

Streetinvestor2:
Abeg who is the loon here.... hope it is not the white lion of kogi state type you ment

If you doubt its performance, enter the cage and see firsthand whether it is truly a lion.

SHOULD OANDO PULLBACK
In case there is a pullback on OANDO, 3 possible scenario to BUY the stock (IF INTERESTED)
1. Highly Aggressive: 14.95 - 15.60
2. Aggressive Area: 12.50 - 13.85
3. Conservative: 8.75 - 9.75

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

BullBearMkt:
SHOULD OANDO PULLBACK
In case there is a pullback on OANDO, 3 possible scenario to BUY the stock (IF INTERESTED)
1. Highly Aggressive: 14.95 - 15.60
2. Aggressive Area: 12.50 - 13.85
3. Conservative: 8.75 - 9.75

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

Peter said we should wait at the conservative level

BullBearMkt:
SHOULD OANDO PULLBACK
In case there is a pullback on OANDO, 3 possible scenario to BUY the stock (IF INTERESTED)
1. Highly Aggressive: 14.95 - 15.60
2. Aggressive Area: 12.50 - 13.85
3. Conservative: 8.75 - 9.75

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

Is there no super-conservastive?

BullBearMkt:
SHOULD OANDO PULLBACK
In case there is a pullback on OANDO, 3 possible scenario to BUY the stock (IF INTERESTED)
1. Highly Aggressive: 14.95 - 15.60
2. Aggressive Area: 12.50 - 13.85
3. Conservative: 8.75 - 9.75

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

Thr is still possible bonanza scenario.which is below the 7.07 price


Pls help with the 3 scenario for upwards in a case it doesn't pull back and pull up.

Agbalowomeri:


Is there no super-conservastive?

I guess it is bonanza period then

Agbalowomeri:


Is there no super-conservastive?

lol!
Of course there is, @6

Agbalowomeri:


Is there no super-conservastive?

Leave Oando alone

Streetinvestor2:
Thr is still possible bonanza scenario.which is below the 7.07 price


Pls help with the 3 scenario for upwards in a case it doesn't pull back and pull up.

Una Don drag street come out,it is remaining the other guy his moniker start with M

Streetinvestor2:
Thr is still possible bonanza scenario.which is below the 7.07 price


Pls help with the 3 scenario for upwards in a case it doesn't pull back and pull up.

TA has a tool, Fib Extention, that could be used to estimate possible Target Taket Profit Points.
- Fib Extention estimates: the next is about 20.84 (approx. 21), then 28.5
- Another your personal target goal
- Well, for now I think FA intrinsic value might likely be -ve

Choiceguy:


Una Don drag street come out,it is remaining the other guy his moniker start with M

Nigeria's Dangote Refinery Branches Out Into Brazilian Crude they will recieve the product by second half of next month.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE

With the moves of OandO MM, I expect them to remain AGGRESSIVE until another round of news filters in...

BullBearMkt:
SHOULD OANDO PULLBACK
In case there is a pullback on OANDO, 3 possible scenario to BUY the stock (IF INTERESTED)
1. Highly Aggressive: 14.95 - 15.60
2. Aggressive Area: 12.50 - 13.85
3. Conservative: 8.75 - 9.75

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

Choiceguy:


Nigeria's Dangote Refinery Branches Out Into Brazilian Crude they will recieve the product by second half of next month.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE

People are busy following whr the real money dey....crude oil.You are here talking about some company selling petrol who those not even fall within the major marketers that have outlets everywhere..I hope the company retain earnings is not still negative too.Oga masquerade get level.

And I don't equally understand the M moniker. It looks he is like Agba....one man stock or na wale rep for here..He only talks about my betnaija stock.

FA for totalenergies, hit or miss?

Let's analyze the financial data for TotalEnergies Downstream Nigeria from 2021 to 2023.

Key Financial Ratios Analysis

Liquidity Ratios:
1. Current Ratio:
- 2021: 1.00
- 2022: 1.03
- 2023: 1.03
- Analysis: The current ratio remains stable and slightly above 1, indicating that the company has just enough current assets to cover its current liabilities.

2. Quick Ratio:
- 2021: 0.82
- 2022: 0.79
- 2023: 0.79
- Analysis: The quick ratio is below 1, showing potential liquidity issues as the company may not be able to meet its short-term liabilities without selling inventory.

3. Cash Ratio:
- 2021: 0.39
- 2022: 0.33
- 2023: 0.29
- Analysis: The declining cash ratio indicates reduced cash reserves, making it difficult for the company to cover its short-term obligations with cash alone.

Profitability Ratios:
1. Gross Profit Margin:
- 2021: 16.1%
- 2022: 12.5%
- 2023: 12.9%
- Analysis: There is a decline in gross profit margin from 2021 to 2022, with a slight recovery in 2023, suggesting increased cost of goods sold or pricing pressures.

2. Net Profit Margin:
- 2021: 4.9%
- 2022: 3.3%
- 2023: 2.0%
- Analysis: The net profit margin is decreasing, indicating declining profitability possibly due to increased operating expenses or reduced revenues.

3. Return on Assets (ROA):
- 2021: 8.1%
- 2022: 5.2%
- 2023: 3.4%
- Analysis: A decreasing ROA shows declining efficiency in using assets to generate earnings.

4. Return on Equity (ROE):
- 2021: 40.5%
- 2022: 32.1%
- 2023: 23.0%
- Analysis: ROE is significantly decreasing, indicating reduced profitability and potentially increased financial leverage.

Efficiency Ratios:
1. Asset Turnover Ratio:
- 2021: 1.64
- 2022: 1.57
- 2023: 1.69
- Analysis: A slight increase in 2023 indicates improved efficiency in using assets to generate sales.

2. Inventory Turnover Ratio:
- 2021: 11.26
- 2022: 9.54
- 2023: 8.32
- Analysis: The inventory turnover is declining, suggesting slower movement of inventory and potential overstocking issues.

3. Receivables Turnover Ratio:
- 2021: 6.49
- 2022: 5.50
- 2023: 4.82
- Analysis: A declining receivables turnover ratio indicates slower collection of receivables, impacting cash flow.

Leverage Ratios:
1. Debt Ratio:
- 2021: 0.80
- 2022: 0.84
- 2023: 0.85
- Analysis: The increasing debt ratio shows growing reliance on debt to finance assets, which could be risky.

2. Debt-to-Equity Ratio:
- 2021: 4.02
- 2022: 5.12
- 2023: 5.69
- Analysis: The debt-to-equity ratio is increasing, indicating higher financial leverage and potential solvency issues.

3. Interest Coverage Ratio:
- 2021: 15.03
- 2022: 5.55
- 2023: 2.72
- Analysis: A sharp decline in interest coverage ratio suggests decreasing ability to meet interest obligations from earnings, increasing financial risk.

Market Value Ratios:
1. Earnings Per Share (EPS):
- 2021: 49.66
- 2022: 47.47
- 2023: 38.03
- Analysis: The decreasing EPS reflects declining profitability and potentially reduced shareholder value.

Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) Analysis:
1. FCFE (in '000 NGN):
- 2021: -10,554,927
- 2022: 43,197,064
- 2023: -51,769,578
- Analysis: FCFE is highly volatile with significant negative values in 2021 and 2023, and a large positive value in 2022. This indicates fluctuating free cash flow available to equity holders, affected by changes in net borrowing and working capital.


Here are the considerations for a buy, sell, or hold decision:

Buy:
- Positive Aspects: The company showed some resilience in gross profit margins in 2023 and a slight improvement in asset turnover. The company had a significant positive FCFE in 2022, indicating potential for high returns during certain periods.
- Potential Catalysts: If the company can improve its efficiency and manage its debt levels better, it could become a more attractive investment.

Sell:
- Negative Aspects: Declining profitability metrics such as net profit margin, ROA, and ROE over the years. Increasing debt levels and decreasing interest coverage ratios indicate higher financial risk. Volatility in FCFE and negative cash flows in 2021 and 2023 highlight cash management issues.
- Risks: The high debt-to-equity ratio and lower liquidity ratios suggest financial instability, making it a risky investment.

Hold:
- Neutral Aspects: Stable current ratio and slight recovery in gross profit margins in 2023. If you already hold the stock, you might want to wait and see if there are any strategic changes or improvements in the company’s financial health.

Conclusion:
Given the mixed results, the high debt levels, and declining profitability, selling might be the most prudent action if you are risk-averse. But, if you believe in the company’s long-term strategy and potential for improvement, you might consider holding.

DD.

Nice job. But that q1 2024 result. Hmmm

ndept:
Please help me check your chart to see which one still get DB . I am still enjoying the DB that you gave on eterna.

@ndept, I was about to fulfill my promise to you during the week, but when I checked your profile, I realised you are more of FA guy. In order not to waste my time, let me know your thoughts on ETRANZACT.

Nice Osita, Did you do this one by one or from an investing portal.

ositadima1:
FA for totalenergies, hit or miss?

Let's analyze the financial data for TotalEnergies Downstream Nigeria from 2021 to 2023.

Key Financial Ratios Analysis

Liquidity Ratios:
1. Current Ratio:
- 2021: 1.00
- 2022: 1.03
- 2023: 1.03
- Analysis: The current ratio remains stable and slightly above 1, indicating that the company has just enough current assets to cover its current liabilities.

2. Quick Ratio:
- 2021: 0.82
- 2022: 0.79
- 2023: 0.79
- Analysis: The quick ratio is below 1, showing potential liquidity issues as the company may not be able to meet its short-term liabilities without selling inventory.

3. Cash Ratio:
- 2021: 0.39
- 2022: 0.33
- 2023: 0.29
- Analysis: The declining cash ratio indicates reduced cash reserves, making it difficult for the company to cover its short-term obligations with cash alone.

Profitability Ratios:
1. Gross Profit Margin:
- 2021: 16.1%
- 2022: 12.5%
- 2023: 12.9%
- Analysis: There is a decline in gross profit margin from 2021 to 2022, with a slight recovery in 2023, suggesting increased cost of goods sold or pricing pressures.

2. Net Profit Margin:
- 2021: 4.9%
- 2022: 3.3%
- 2023: 2.0%
- Analysis: The net profit margin is decreasing, indicating declining profitability possibly due to increased operating expenses or reduced revenues.

3. Return on Assets (ROA):
- 2021: 8.1%
- 2022: 5.2%
- 2023: 3.4%
- Analysis: A decreasing ROA shows declining efficiency in using assets to generate earnings.

4. Return on Equity (ROE):
- 2021: 40.5%
- 2022: 32.1%
- 2023: 23.0%
- Analysis: ROE is significantly decreasing, indicating reduced profitability and potentially increased financial leverage.

Efficiency Ratios:
1. Asset Turnover Ratio:
- 2021: 1.64
- 2022: 1.57
- 2023: 1.69
- Analysis: A slight increase in 2023 indicates improved efficiency in using assets to generate sales.

2. Inventory Turnover Ratio:
- 2021: 11.26
- 2022: 9.54
- 2023: 8.32
- Analysis: The inventory turnover is declining, suggesting slower movement of inventory and potential overstocking issues.

3. Receivables Turnover Ratio:
- 2021: 6.49
- 2022: 5.50
- 2023: 4.82
- Analysis: A declining receivables turnover ratio indicates slower collection of receivables, impacting cash flow.

Leverage Ratios:
1. Debt Ratio:
- 2021: 0.80
- 2022: 0.84
- 2023: 0.85
- Analysis: The increasing debt ratio shows growing reliance on debt to finance assets, which could be risky.

2. Debt-to-Equity Ratio:
- 2021: 4.02
- 2022: 5.12
- 2023: 5.69
- Analysis: The debt-to-equity ratio is increasing, indicating higher financial leverage and potential solvency issues.

3. Interest Coverage Ratio:
- 2021: 15.03
- 2022: 5.55
- 2023: 2.72
- Analysis: A sharp decline in interest coverage ratio suggests decreasing ability to meet interest obligations from earnings, increasing financial risk.

Market Value Ratios:
1. Earnings Per Share (EPS):
- 2021: 49.66
- 2022: 47.47
- 2023: 38.03
- Analysis: The decreasing EPS reflects declining profitability and potentially reduced shareholder value.

Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) Analysis:
1. FCFE (in '000 NGN):
- 2021: -10,554,927
- 2022: 43,197,064
- 2023: -51,769,578
- Analysis: FCFE is highly volatile with significant negative values in 2021 and 2023, and a large positive value in 2022. This indicates fluctuating free cash flow available to equity holders, affected by changes in net borrowing and working capital.


Here are the considerations for a buy, sell, or hold decision:

Buy:
- Positive Aspects: The company showed some resilience in gross profit margins in 2023 and a slight improvement in asset turnover. The company had a significant positive FCFE in 2022, indicating potential for high returns during certain periods.
- Potential Catalysts: If the company can improve its efficiency and manage its debt levels better, it could become a more attractive investment.

Sell:
- Negative Aspects: Declining profitability metrics such as net profit margin, ROA, and ROE over the years. Increasing debt levels and decreasing interest coverage ratios indicate higher financial risk. Volatility in FCFE and negative cash flows in 2021 and 2023 highlight cash management issues.
- Risks: The high debt-to-equity ratio and lower liquidity ratios suggest financial instability, making it a risky investment.

Hold:
- Neutral Aspects: Stable current ratio and slight recovery in gross profit margins in 2023. If you already hold the stock, you might want to wait and see if there are any strategic changes or improvements in the company’s financial health.

Conclusion:
Given the mixed results, the high debt levels, and declining profitability, selling might be the most prudent action if you are risk-averse. But, if you believe in the company’s long-term strategy and potential for improvement, you might consider holding.

DD.

MeezPat:
Nice Osita, Did you do this one by one or from an investing portal.

No, I copied the audited financial statements, like copying the pages and pasting them to Claude, and queried it to make the calculations based on my chosen ratios.

These AIs are getting smarter. It extracted what it needed and the values, knew under which year to look for the corresponding number, and knew to add 000 to each value. It gave detailed calculations which I didn't paste here for space reasons.

The free cash flow was calculated with net borrowing in consideration, hence the negative values; the FCF without it is all positive, though I didn't show it. Then I asked it to analyze the results. It seems Total is very leveraged; I think this is common in Nigeria, which is why banks are making lots of money. Most Nigerian companies run on loans.

I think Total will reach 425, based on my other personal valuation using FCF (without net borrowing factored in) discount method with Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation ranged between 300 and 560 naira.

Do your own estimation and let me know what your target is as well.

ositadima1:
FA for totalenergies, hit or miss?

Let's analyze the financial data for TotalEnergies Downstream Nigeria from 2021 to 2023.

Key Financial Ratios Analysis

Omo...u dey try Oo!! 🙌🙏
These giveaways ain't cheap.

BullBearMkt:

TA has a tool, Fib Extention, that could be used to estimate possible Target Taket Profit Points.
- Fib Extention estimates: the next is about 20.84 (approx. 21), then 28.5
- Another your personal target goal
- Well, for now I think FA intrinsic value might likely be -ve

ok boss,we will see the one that plays out from now to October btw the down or up swing

Rich and kind of you

ositadima1:
FA for totalenergies, hit or miss?

Let's analyze the financial data for TotalEnergies Downstream Nigeria from 2021 to 2023.

Key Financial Ratios Analysis

Liquidity Ratios:
1. Current Ratio:
- 2021: 1.00
- 2022: 1.03
- 2023: 1.03
- Analysis: The current ratio remains stable and slightly above 1, indicating that the company has just enough current assets to cover its current liabilities.

2. Quick Ratio:
- 2021: 0.82
- 2022: 0.79
- 2023: 0.79
- Analysis: The quick ratio is below 1, showing potential liquidity issues as the company may not be able to meet its short-term liabilities without selling inventory.

3. Cash Ratio:
- 2021: 0.39
- 2022: 0.33
- 2023: 0.29
- Analysis: The declining cash ratio indicates reduced cash reserves, making it difficult for the company to cover its short-term obligations with cash alone.

Profitability Ratios:
1. Gross Profit Margin:
- 2021: 16.1%
- 2022: 12.5%
- 2023: 12.9%
- Analysis: There is a decline in gross profit margin from 2021 to 2022, with a slight recovery in 2023, suggesting increased cost of goods sold or pricing pressures.

2. Net Profit Margin:
- 2021: 4.9%
- 2022: 3.3%
- 2023: 2.0%
- Analysis: The net profit margin is decreasing, indicating declining profitability possibly due to increased operating expenses or reduced revenues.

3. Return on Assets (ROA):
- 2021: 8.1%
- 2022: 5.2%
- 2023: 3.4%
- Analysis: A decreasing ROA shows declining efficiency in using assets to generate earnings.

4. Return on Equity (ROE):
- 2021: 40.5%
- 2022: 32.1%
- 2023: 23.0%
- Analysis: ROE is significantly decreasing, indicating reduced profitability and potentially increased financial leverage.

Efficiency Ratios:
1. Asset Turnover Ratio:
- 2021: 1.64
- 2022: 1.57
- 2023: 1.69
- Analysis: A slight increase in 2023 indicates improved efficiency in using assets to generate sales.

2. Inventory Turnover Ratio:
- 2021: 11.26
- 2022: 9.54
- 2023: 8.32
- Analysis: The inventory turnover is declining, suggesting slower movement of inventory and potential overstocking issues.

3. Receivables Turnover Ratio:
- 2021: 6.49
- 2022: 5.50
- 2023: 4.82
- Analysis: A declining receivables turnover ratio indicates slower collection of receivables, impacting cash flow.

Leverage Ratios:
1. Debt Ratio:
- 2021: 0.80
- 2022: 0.84
- 2023: 0.85
- Analysis: The increasing debt ratio shows growing reliance on debt to finance assets, which could be risky.

2. Debt-to-Equity Ratio:
- 2021: 4.02
- 2022: 5.12
- 2023: 5.69
- Analysis: The debt-to-equity ratio is increasing, indicating higher financial leverage and potential solvency issues.

3. Interest Coverage Ratio:
- 2021: 15.03
- 2022: 5.55
- 2023: 2.72
- Analysis: A sharp decline in interest coverage ratio suggests decreasing ability to meet interest obligations from earnings, increasing financial risk.

Market Value Ratios:
1. Earnings Per Share (EPS):
- 2021: 49.66
- 2022: 47.47
- 2023: 38.03
- Analysis: The decreasing EPS reflects declining profitability and potentially reduced shareholder value.

Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) Analysis:
1. FCFE (in '000 NGN):
- 2021: -10,554,927
- 2022: 43,197,064
- 2023: -51,769,578
- Analysis: FCFE is highly volatile with significant negative values in 2021 and 2023, and a large positive value in 2022. This indicates fluctuating free cash flow available to equity holders, affected by changes in net borrowing and working capital.


Here are the considerations for a buy, sell, or hold decision:

Buy:
- Positive Aspects: The company showed some resilience in gross profit margins in 2023 and a slight improvement in asset turnover. The company had a significant positive FCFE in 2022, indicating potential for high returns during certain periods.
- Potential Catalysts: If the company can improve its efficiency and manage its debt levels better, it could become a more attractive investment.

Sell:
- Negative Aspects: Declining profitability metrics such as net profit margin, ROA, and ROE over the years. Increasing debt levels and decreasing interest coverage ratios indicate higher financial risk. Volatility in FCFE and negative cash flows in 2021 and 2023 highlight cash management issues.
- Risks: The high debt-to-equity ratio and lower liquidity ratios suggest financial instability, making it a risky investment.

Hold:
- Neutral Aspects: Stable current ratio and slight recovery in gross profit margins in 2023. If you already hold the stock, you might want to wait and see if there are any strategic changes or improvements in the company’s financial health.

Conclusion:
Given the mixed results, the high debt levels, and declining profitability, selling might be the most prudent action if you are risk-averse. But, if you believe in the company’s long-term strategy and potential for improvement, you might consider holding.

DD.

The cost of timing the market.
Evidence based market research analysis.

ositadima1:



No, I copied the audited financial statements, like copying the pages and pasting them to Claude, and queried it to make the calculations based on my chosen ratios.

These AIs are getting smarter. It extracted what it needed and the values, knew under which year to look for the corresponding number, and knew to add 000 to each value. It gave detailed calculations which I didn't paste here for space reasons.

The free cash flow was calculated with net borrowing in consideration, hence the negative values; the FCF without it is all positive, though I didn't show it. Then I asked it to analyze the results. It seems Total is very leveraged; I think this is common in Nigeria, which is why banks are making lots of money. Most Nigerian companies run on loans.

I think Total will reach 425, based on my other personal valuation using FCF (without net borrowing factored in) discount method with Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation ranged between 300 and 560 naira.

Do your own estimation and let me know what your target is as well.

You try well
My own is based on street analysis. Total has already touched 425 within day swing in price. Total will be heading for 600 after second quarter result. If you use Total products beside pms you will understand. The fuel treatment others sell for #1500 -#2000.That of Total is #4500.The cost of thr lubricant and others is now something else. They are the next enjoying in marketing pms so far beside nnpc station. Then thr heavy duty engine oil and oil in big gallon is what most people in that category use.The result for 2024 go loud.

Retirement can become a trap of poverty for some individuals because they failed to invest their limited resources during their working years. This is a mistake we need to address now. While still working, it's essential to set aside a portion of our earnings and invest them wisely to secure our financial future.

Streetinvestor2:
You try well
My own is based on street analysis. Total has already touched 425 within day swing in price. Total will be heading for 600 after second quarter result. If you use Total products beside pms you will understand. The fuel treatment others sell for #1500 -#2000.That of Total is #4500.The cost of thr lubricant and others is now something else. They are the next enjoying in marketing pms so far beside nnpc station. Then thr heavy duty engine oil and oil in big gallon is what most people in that category use.The result for 2024 go loud.

Total wey I expect to be the next Seplat

Mpeace:
Total wey I expect to be the next Seplat

i no follow you for that high hope oh.Saplet no be total mate ..The total listed for nse is not into crude oil and gas.Total for nse na just marketing company.

Na my betnaija stock in future if they can turn things around in yrs to come can go that way.

Streetinvestor2:
i no follow you for that high hope oh.Saplet no be total mate ..The total listed for nse is not into crude oil and gas.Total for nse na just marketing company.

Na my betnaija stock in future if they can turn things around in yrs to come can go that way.

Na so una tell me when I enter seplat that year. Only time will tell sha

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