This is from Renaissance Capital


http://cambridgeforecast./2008/02/11/moscow-business-research/

Renaissance Capital – Pavel Naumenko

New!! Frontier Markets Traders Market Wrap –Frontier Market Wrap 11 Feb 2008 , Mon, 11 Feb 2008


Africa

Nigeria

The market continued to be bullish today as activities in the insurance and banking sub-sectors pushed ASI up by 0.46% to close at a new all-time high of 62,805.29 . Aggregate volume was 1.55 billion shares (+27.68) valued at N19.5 billion ($166m). The Insurance sub-sector still maintained its lead on the activity chart (measured by turnover volume) as several million of units traded as speculators continued to mop up huge quantities supplied. In all, we had 81 advances, 21 non-movers and 49declines. Market Capitalization was $98.3billion (+0.72%)

OTHER MARKET INDICATORS

Value Leaders: FIRSTBANK ($18.6m),CONTINSURE ($13m), OCEANIC ($12.4m), INTERCONT ($10.6m), INTENEGINS ($8.9m)

Volume Leaders: CONTINSURE (221m), INTENEGINS (138m), ABC(100m), NEM (72m), CORNERST (72m)

Top Price Gainers: CHEVRON N249.99 (+N3.99, +1.62%), OANDO N150 (+N2.99, +2.03%), FIRSTBANK N52.25 (+N2.61, +4.98) CADBURY N52.50 (+N2.48, +4.45), NBC N58.98 (+N1.93, +3.38)

Top Price Losers: MOBIL N185.50 (-N5.5, -2.88%), CONOIL N91.21 (-N4.78, -4.98%), JBERGER N90 (-N4, -4.26%), UACN N52.40 (-N2.7, -4.90%), BCC N52 (-N2.61, -4.90%)

All- Share Index up 0.46% at 62,805.29

Total Volume Traded- 1,553,998,555 (+27.68%)

Total Value Traded- N19.5b ($166m) (+7.02%)

Stocks on Net Bid: AIICO, ECOBANK, DANGFLOUR, FIRSTBANK,

Stocks on Net Offer: WEMABANK, FIRSTINLND , CUSTODYINS, STDINSURE

WATCH LIST

ACCESS BANK down -1.68% to close at N23.99 ($0.20) with $2.2m worth of shares traded. GDR- $20.37

UBA down 1.39 % to close at N49.02($0.42) with $6.3m worth of shares traded. GDR - $83.26

ETI down 0.02% closed at N203.95 ($1.73) with $0.07m worth of shares traded.

Temityao Falore"
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I get two messages from here

hi guys, guess am a lil late here,
i gat a friend who gat .5m n wants to dabble into the stock market, is it possible 4 him 2 double his money b4 the yr ends?, pls good advice is needed/suggestions on how 2 go about it,


care to recommend any good stocks/broker?

I've been locked up like Akon these last few hours and my punishment is the volume of posts I have to read to get up to date!!! It was worth reading as usual though. When I saw the number of outstanding pages I thought something dramatic had happened on the NSE and somehow I missed it!!!

My eyes are locked on Transexpr. The closing price on Friday was too much of a temptation. Could be a CICO stock but my focus is long term on this one but if CICO knocks who am I not to open the door. I consider it a stock to make US RICH.

SCOA nko? I know everybody has been silent on this because they want to buy first. Let me be the first to talk about it though I know there are others that know too.

As my broker has shown me again the stuff he is made of by getting me a sizeable sum, there is no need to hide the stock anymore. From my side sha. No vex if you still dey wait to buy your own. This one must make US very RICH. CICO or otherwise.

One other interesting thing to always remember. Many otherwise illiquid stocks fit get good volume. Na price go determine. Who sabi say Transexpr get volume? He don get now o as the price don rise reach.

Round 2 dey for Deap capital. Tomorrow they should mark down the price for the bonus. Those that did not sell by today will have stories to tell about evaporating paper profit. Whichever way sha, they will still make a kill even if they lose 20% short term. Deap na baba.

They say the best predictor to future behaviour is past behaviour.
This is the reason why I am skeptical of buying Sterling before it does another WEMA

http://www.thenigeriabusiness.com/banking113.html

The 2005 merger of five banks- NAL Bank Plc, Magnum Trust Bank Plc, NBM Bank Limited, Indo-Nigerian Bank Limited and Trust Bank of Africa into Sterling Bank Plc, resulted to a loss of almost N4 billion, the bank said in its 2006 annual report.

The Chairman of the bank, Alhaji Sulaiman Baffa in the report made available to the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Lagos on Wednesday said that the decision to confront the merging banks risk asset portfolio was to enable the product of the merger, Sterling Bank Plc to start afresh. He explained that the consolidation exercise and harmonisation of depreciation policies of the banks involved cost the bank huge sums which he said exerted significant negative impact on the bank's performance in 2006.

According to him, the bank cannot recommend dividend payment for the nine month period ended 30th December, 2006 due to the fact that the earnings from the previous year's operation was used to clean up the books of the bank. The bank's profit after tax of N4, 820,558 in 2005 was gulped by the merger induced book-cleaning exercise, Baffa stated. He, however, explained that the clean up would ultimately result in healthy returns to shareholders in the coming years.

The Group Managing Director of Sterling Bank Plc, Mr Babatunde Dabiri told shareholders present at the bank's annual general meeting in Lagos also on Wednesday that all the five banks involved in the merger were guilty of false disclosure.

Dabiri said the amounts disclosed by the five banks known then as Legacy Banks at the merger table were not what they eventually brought.







.

@easimoni
this one whey u done break the 1000 posting barrier, na convergence or divergence you dey?
hapi bday o!

On Universal insurance, well I saw the PP document and was not impressed at all. It was done @ N0.95. I heard on posted it here on Friday on the plan for listing @ N1.85. It closed today @ N1.94. With the volume and quantity traded on the first day it is a sign that somethings don't add up. I will advice all to threak carefully. Got some 2m units (not in my name though), but will be sold at the first opportunity. For me, it is a WHACK company.

You want to factor this in also:

http://www.sunnewsonline.com/webpages/features/enterprise/2008/feb/09/enterprise-09-02-2008-001.htm

Caveat Emptor

Just picked this information up on transcorp. Could someone confirm the authenticity as Tribune can be found to be unreliable sometimes

http://www.punchng.com/Articl.aspx?theartic=Art20080212056831

@pumping - yarn more about Scoa, e be like say that train don live station,

Guys, please where can I get the current prices of mutual funds online? That's including the recent ARM aggressive growth funds. And does anyone have any idea when they (ARM) intend to start sending out the certificates? I need to sell!

easimoni (m) Re: Your Best And Worst Stocks Ever?
« #11 on: May 31, 2007, 07:00 PM »

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Best buy ever was Japaul at 90k, sold it four months later at N3. Two months later, it is almost at N6 . Had a similar experience with WAPCO last year but it took much longer to appreciate.

Worst stock ever was AP. Bought it and 2 weeks later, NNPC announced AP had an N11B debt. Could not even find buyers. Only the second time I ever sold at a loss (1st time was when I took my broker's advice)


This market is really something else! Where is my crystal ball?

SCOA Nigeria Plc

SCOA which is a company listed on the Nigerian stock exchange in the conglomerate sector did not perform very well last year, this can be seen from the just released results as its turnover decreased by 49.8 percent from N3.7 billion in 2006 to N1.8 billion in 2007.Its profit before tax was also down by 195.5 percent as it decreased from N860 million in 2006 to N821 million in 2007. The company recorded a loss in its profit after tax as it dropped from N867 million in 2006 to N705 million in 2007 signifying 181.4 percent change. The company closed at N5.29 at the end of trading on the 5th of february 2008.


With this result, why are people still buying SCOA?

Hi my good people,pls i am new to this forum and i hv about 200k to invest in secondary market.I am considering Nascon.Pumping,Easi,Wanajo,Iconbull and others too numerous to mention and other gurus in the house,pls is this a good buyAll protocols observed!

I understand that FBN is on net bid, does this mean that the price will continue to rise?

I am preparing to exit, only need to know when to.

Pumping, Aktopgun, Wanajo, Fof2, others comment please.

@ all

This is part of my contribution to the forum for being a silent reader most of the time. Please, feel free to let me know if you find this spreadsheet useful or not.

Femtex:

@ all

This is part of my contribution to the forum for being a silent reader most of the time. Please, feel free to let me know if you find this spreadsheet useful or not.

@Femtex

any particular reason why some of d securities are highlighted in yellow?

thx

The Admira:

[color=#006600][/color]

@Femtex

any particular reason why some of d securities are highlighted in yellow?

thx

I was trying to highlight those that made the 5% mark. Sorry, I got distracted.

yodiyokun:

Look at the people buying First Aluminium,

Except that company releases a cokastic result, yawa go gas.

If you are in, and you entered at 4naira and above exit now while the going is sweet. The result may not be all that ooo.

Every body knows that FA is a CICO stock, I remember @Wanaj0 prohesied on this stock last year on stockmarketnigeria.com and it came to pas,

Sell now, while you have buyers except there is hot cake news - we are missing.

Abi dangote don buy am?

Or are they coming to the market?

Which kind prophecy be that?

FAN is a good company affected by the challenging environment. Patience is paying off for those that bought at a high price last year.

loma:

SCOA Nigeria Plc

SCOA which is a company listed on the Nigerian stock exchange in the conglomerate sector did not perform very well last year, this can be seen from the just released results as its turnover decreased by 49.8 percent from N3.7 billion in 2006 to N1.8 billion in 2007.Its profit before tax was also down by 195.5 percent as it decreased from N860 million in 2006 to N821 million in 2007. The company recorded a loss in its profit after tax as it dropped from N867 million in 2006 to N705 million in 2007 signifying 181.4 percent change. The company closed at N5.29 at the end of trading on the 5th of february 2008.


With this result, why are people still buying SCOA?

Sorry you are reading the SCOA result wrongly!!!!! Yes there was a decrease in turnover but the company moved from a loss poistion to a profit positing. Profit actually grew by over 200%!!!! For the first time in ages, SCOA is paying a dividend of 10k. The recent movement in the price is because of the turn around that led to this fantastic result. The question is whether it is suatinable. For all you know, the profit may be due to the sale of assets (Extra ordinary income). Releasing 2006 result in 2008 does not go well with me so while there is money to be made, I always allow such stock to PASS.

nypurr:

You want to factor this in also:

http://www.sunnewsonline.com/webpages/features/enterprise/2008/feb/09/enterprise-09-02-2008-001.htm

That article is all noise and little substance as far as Universal Insurance is concerned. After the N9m profit no figure was mentioned again. With 16bn oustanding shares, they will need a profit of N1.6bn to have an EPS of 10k. With the price close to 2.00, that is already a PE of 20.00!!! Tell me which insurance company is close to maing N1bn profit yet? For all you know those jokers will go for a PO maybe that will take them to 20bn shares!!!! Shine your eye. I expect the price of this one to drop below the listing price FAST!!!! Look at the number of deals done on the first day. Things are fishy!!!

@wanajo

ur analysis once again is spot on, well said. i am quite sceptical of any company with little history myself, unless i can see in the prospectus their argument is plausible and achievable, ala CHAMS or they are a monopoly in their sector.

thanks for the heads up on this one

Shares' certificates: SEC revokes registrars' licences | Print | E-mail
Written by Omoh Gabriel, Business Editor
Sunday, 10 February 2008
PIQUED by the increasing quantity of unclaimed dividends and sharp practices, delay in shares' certificates dispatch by Registrars in the capital market, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the apex capital market, regulator has revoked the operating licences of Registrars and ordered all of them in the Capital Market to turn in fresh applications to determine their continued suitability to operate as company registrars in the country.
Registrars found lacking the necessary skills and IT infrastructure to operate in the growing Nigerian Capital Market will be denied registration and booted out of the market.

Disclosing this to Financial Vanguard on Friday, Mr. Lanre Oloyi, Head, Corporate Affairs, Securities and Exchange Commission, speaking on behalf of the Director-General, Mr. Musa Al Faki, said the regulatory body would in the next few weeks set up a committee to look into problems associated with public offers which have generated a lot of controversies in the Nigerian capital market.

He said the body would, among others, look into the problems of multiple applications in public offers, e-allotment among others. According to him, this is to bring the much-needed transparency and accountability into the market.

Mr. Bayo Olugbemi, Chief Registrar, First Registrar Limited, also in an interview with Financial Vanguard had earlier said in the next one or two weeks, SEC would come out with a list of members of a committee that would look into the challenges in the market and come out with possible solutions to the various problems associated with public offers.

Members of the committee, he said, would be drawn from all stakeholders in the Nigerian capital market. According to him, “SEC has been meeting with all stakeholders to see that problems associated with public offers are addressed.”

Company Registrars who are the book keepers of companies in the exchange market have been accused of manipulating the market to their advantage. Services rendered by this arm of the capital market operators are not only shoddy but of very low quality, resulting in high level of unclaimed dividends in Nigeria.

Registrars' sins

Most of the registrars, apart from shoddy services, are located in remote parts of the city. Facilities in their offices are not in line with modern trends, resulting in queues of investors seeking basic information and assistance about their investments.

Following the increasing nauseating behaviour of these registrars, SEC, last week announced far-reaching preliminary measures against companies that unnecessarily delay the issuance of shares' certificates of their public offers and return of surplus monies to investors.

Shares of such companies, SEC said, would be suspended from trading on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).

SEC bans preferential allotment

The commission has also banned preferential allotment of shares on public offers and directed that registrars could no longer maintain registers of their related companies with effect from April, this year.
The sanction is to further protect the investing public and guarantee greater confidence in the Nigerian capital market.

, warns companies

SEC warned that any public company found to have violated its rules and regulations relating to the dispatch of shares' certificates and return of surplus monies would have its listed securities suspended indefinitely from trading on the floor of the NSE.

Many of these registrars use flimsy excuses to hold onto shares' certificates especially those on public offer. According to SEC sources, some of the in-house registrars deliberately hold back certificates to allow their principals sell their shares before releasing to the general public their certificates.

Some, it was gathered, allow companies raising funds to allot shares to their preferred persons thus distorting the market trend.

In some of the recently concluded offers, while small investors who ordinarily should be favoured by allotment of shares, had their monies returned while the preferred large volume holders of N250 million had full allotment.

Some of the said companies passed notes around to all such high networth individuals that their applications for shares will receive 100 per cent allotment.

This, it was learnt, irked regulators to come out with strong penalties against future offenders. SEC was not forthcoming as to what will happen to those found culpable in recent times.

According to SEC, “all such defaulting companies shall not be allowed to access the Nigerian capital market until all outstanding complaints against them are cleared to the satisfaction of the commission.”

@AKT

Using NHS computer and time to surf Nairaland!!

Will report you to Trust Board!

Samstone4

@All Gurus, Aktopgun, Wanajo, Invisible Pumping, ,

Pls can anyone give me a view on 1st Inland bank? I personally think they are one of the truly IT driven banks with good ITproducts which will definitely translate to good growth. Does anyone have their figures or any insider news?

Thanks.

abelin78,

Why not divide the money in two/three parts and buy
1. Your preffered share
2. A bank with good prospects low forward P.E.(after P.O. dillution) and
3. maybe a construction stock with good P.E.

If you were experience I would have suggested you pick insurance stock.

Though the amount may not too be much you should imbibe diversification as a culture. It gives you the power be free from evils of any sector or particular stock like staying_on_supportlevel_for_ages/netoffer/T.S./ReturnMoney/fullsuspension etc. Infact with excellent diversification you can take profits even when the  bears are around.

Lastly if you are taking Nascon, it's a good stock but you better set a good price limit to gurantee good returns and early opportunity to exit.

abelin78,
I entered at Nascon N16.4. because I observed it had some kind of support at N17.50 . It would be better to get it at a price close to it's support. The time to buy a stock iss when the price is low and you are convince it has good prospects.

@fof2, @wanajo, @pumping, @aktopgun

How una see the following stocks? Is it too late to enter?

RTBriscoe - doubt if any bonus will be given - results due in March
NB - same as above
Unilever - same as above
C&I leasing - results due in June(from past history)
WAPCO - results due in 2weeks (from history)
AG leventis results due in March(may give bonus)

Please do let me know ur thots. Analysis paralysis one kill person. I was also hoping that each of these stocks will reset at some low point before results are released.

cheers

The Federal Government has started a search for new investors for NITEL and its mobile subsidiary, Mtel to improve on their dwindling fortunes.

At a meeting with the Transnational Corporation last December, the government made it clear that it was prepared to get another investor to salvage the telecoms companies.

The government said this was to redress the worsening condition of the companies, a year after Transcorp took over their operations.

This decision was contained in a communique at the end of a stakeholders’ meeting, which was made available to the News Agency of Nigeria in Abuja on Monday.

The resolution indicated that both parties agreed to divest a percentage of their equity in the parent company to a new investor.

“There is the need for a new core investor, who is an industry player, with a focus, technical expertise, managerial experience and financial capacity to turn NITEL/Mtel around’’ it stated.

The Federal Government currently owns 49 per cent share in the NITEL, while Transcorp controls 51 per cent after paying N63bn ($500m) in November 2006.

With this resolution, the government is to relinquish 24 per cent of its holding to the new investor and retain 25 per cent for divestment to Nigerians.

“Transcorp is to relinquish a maximum of 27 per cent out of its 51 per cent holding to the new operator/investor in order to make up the 51 per cent needed to give the core investor majority ownership” the resolution said.

NAN gathered that the resolution had been sent to President Umaru Yar’ Adua for approval.

Top ministry officials told NAN that the meeting, held on December 17, 2007, was attended by the Minister of Information and Communication, the Nigeria Communications Commission, Transcorp and the BPE.

Top ministry officials said some investors had already indicated interest in the company.

The officials said the memo to the President entitled, “Re: Unmerited six months tolerance of Transcorp’s sloppy management of NITEL/Mtel,” catalogued about 32 post-acquisition expectations that Transcorp did not meet.

The officials said Transcorp had failed to meet the post-acquisition plan of NITEL/ Mtel, which included the infusion of N8.9bn working capital loan to turn around the company.

Wanajo

In the same vein, most people relate with cutomer relations staff (marketers) and they assume that they are dealing with the DEALERS. For every brokerage house you use, try to 'meet' those that go to the floor!!! They are key to your success in this business.

I hail u Oga Wanajo.What you said is actually what happens cos my account officer is an office person and knows jack about the shares on offer and bla bla bla and that's how i got my hands burnt in  G T BANK

samstone4:

@AKT

Using NHS computer and time to surf Nairaland!!

Will report you to Trust Board!

Samstone4

     . bros, i do my job excellently and i'm very good at what i do. My work is based in the community and u will not find me lagging behind in my responsibilites. i'm early to work (sometimes up to an hour early, at least 30mins early DAILY) AND ONE OF THE LAST TO LEAVE. I see all my patients either at their homes,  (yes i go to their houses 2 days a week) or they come to me in my clinic 2 days a week. i hold down 2 completely different roles in psychiatry and have done for 2 years now. u wont find me skyving trust me. there are always less busy periods. its winter now so i have mostly depressed patients but the psychotic one salso need monitoring too but somewhat less. wait till summer. we use an internet based computer system in my trust thats city wide and so we have to be online always.  . dont worry na because its not busy yet. once it becomes busy very soon una no go see my breaklight!

@ All,
Deap captial just got listed late last year, any news on when they will be doing a Public Offer??

blueband:

The Federal Government has started a search for new investors for NITEL and its mobile subsidiary, Mtel to improve on their dwindling fortunes.

At a meeting with the Transnational Corporation last December, the government made it clear that it was prepared to get another investor to salvage the telecoms companies.

The government said this was to redress the worsening condition of the companies, a year after Transcorp took over their operations.

This decision was contained in a communique at the end of a stakeholders’ meeting, which was made available to the News Agency of Nigeria in Abuja on Monday.

The resolution indicated that both parties agreed to divest a percentage of their equity in the parent company to a new investor.

“There is the need for a new core investor, who is an industry player, with a focus, technical expertise, managerial experience and financial capacity to turn NITEL/Mtel around’’ it stated.

The Federal Government currently owns 49 per cent share in the NITEL, while Transcorp controls 51 per cent after paying N63bn ($500m) in November 2006.

With this resolution, the government is to relinquish 24 per cent of its holding to the new investor and retain 25 per cent for divestment to Nigerians.

“Transcorp is to relinquish a maximum of 27 per cent out of its 51 per cent holding to the new operator/investor in order to make up the 51 per cent needed to give the core investor majority ownership” the resolution said.

NAN gathered that the resolution had been sent to President Umaru Yar’ Adua for approval.

Top ministry officials told NAN that the meeting, held on December 17, 2007, was attended by the Minister of Information and Communication, the Nigeria Communications Commission, Transcorp and the BPE.

Top ministry officials said some investors had already indicated interest in the company.

The officials said the memo to the President entitled, “Re: Unmerited six months tolerance of Transcorp’s sloppy management of NITEL/Mtel,” catalogued about 32 post-acquisition expectations that Transcorp did not meet.

The officials said Transcorp had failed to meet the post-acquisition plan of NITEL/ Mtel, which included the infusion of N8.9bn working capital loan to turn around the company.

Now we know why all d buzz around transcorp shares. Some people get insider info.

@akt,

i beg help look at my question on TA & unionhomes , #
thanks

For FCMB IPO participant, the party starts in about 3 weeks,


http://www.punchng.com/Articl.aspx?theartic=Art200802120531173


Has anyone got a clue when they will release 9month result.