Pumping,Wanajo,Aktopgun,Windy,
Please someone please tell me how I can access the Partnership Investment Private Placement please.
Treat as urgent.
Please, ejo,

Mr. Risky:

I am a thorough medium term player and it works miracles for me.  When I say medium term, I mean anything between 13 months and 36 months.

The thing is if you give the worst performing stock on the NSE the time frame as you have suggested after 3 years it would deliver trust me!

So i would like to reframe your timeframe and say that 13-36 months is actually long-term and medium term is 4-12 months and RO-RO is 0-3 months and anything in between

By the way i have some banking stocks i bought in '04 and dey still dey kampe for inside my portfolio  that is methusellah in my books

RoughCut:

Ha ha i don remember how the car look now na im my papa dey take carry us go elementary school many many many years ago

http://www.europarts.com.au/images/links/504_taxi.jpg

Pumping na wagon u want abi this one here

http://www.504.org/images/world/ok/Nigeria.jpg

at least upgrade small, 505 dey better
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1a/Peugeot_505_Sedan.jpg/220px-thumb.jpg

windywendy:

@Naijadr, sorry I had to log off yesterday, been very busy.

@CrazyT (I can't believe you've been holding cash for 2wks   ) and Naijadr:
For this week, my cico recommendations are: niwicable (both cico and medium term) neimeth (terrible fundamentals, but i'm in for a quick 10-15% and will only hold for a few days), may&baker (not-so-good fundamentals, but could also make the quick 10 - 15%). Of course Monday or today would have been the best entry points but that depends on your return objectives. Bigtreat is also beginning to look like a good cico candidate.

For the medium term, I would target stocks like STD. Insure (which I already own) -- it should be off TS by the time most insurance stocks are at year highs. The company has diverse revenue streams and has been growing topline, bottomline and margins (esp.) at an impressive rate. Forward PE based on a projected PAT of 600m -- which I believe is very conservative -- is 27. The only caveat is that the company has convertible preferred shares, though i'm not sure if the investors in those shares have converted and sold already. ABC Transport is also good for the medium term, though if I were to hold it for that long, I won't hold beyond the end of May or early June, which historically has been the time around which the stock experienced its highs. For the long term, a lot of those bank stocks (FCMB, Oceanic, UBA) are good. Some PPs are also worth looking at for LT investing.

Of course, all the caveat types apply.  

Wendy, where do you think Niwicable would be heading to and when?

Naijadr:

http://www.europarts.com.au/images/links/504_taxi.jpg

Pumping na wagon u want abi this one here

http://www.504.org/images/world/ok/Nigeria.jpg

at least upgrade small, 505 dey better
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1a/Peugeot_505_Sedan.jpg/220px-thumb.jpg

Ha ha ha at least if i no remember you don remind me proper   

Naijadr:

http://www.europarts.com.au/images/links/504_taxi.jpg

Pumping na wagon u want abi this one here

http://www.504.org/images/world/ok/Nigeria.jpg

at least upgrade small, 505 dey better
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1a/Peugeot_505_Sedan.jpg/220px-thumb.jpg

You too much

The stock take style fine pass the car sha

Naijadr:

Ah thanks o!! I'm really interested in NIWICABLE for medium term, after your previous dissection on it here, and I was tryin to pick up a good insurance stock for med term, as well as get some Oceanic now as well. I figure I'll wait prob till about june to accumulate Oceanic for example.
My broker should have got ABC for me already, and I'll watch it and see month of march, thanks for the heads up on its historical trend.
For Big Treat, do u think it'll get lower than N10?
Thanks again, very much appreciated

I doubt that Bigtreat will hit N10, but you never know with the way the market is performing these days. Imagine Alumaco at 21, meanwhile a bank like FCMB with waaaayyyy better fundamentals and prospects is trading at below 20   However if today's trading numbers are anything to go by, Bigtreat traded as low as it could possibly trade and almost touched the highest it could possibly trade at. Average price was 11.12 so it's looking like 11 might be a support price. There's no significant difference between 10 and 11, so I suggest you start buying at 11 if you want to do a quick cico on the stock.

@Highlander: I don't know where niwicable will be headed to, and I don't know when either. That na bigboylarry question Howeve they're projecting PAT of 500m so you decide what value you want to place on the stock.

RoughCut:

Fear dey catch me seriously to tell how much profit dey for inside that one

Elder Napoleon just gist this morning say brokers dey cross am for N4.80 that na stock wey never list!

My bros you see am so? Me sef get some couple of million units inside. Make dem list quick quick jare.

@Windywendy - Based on the restructuring at Niwicable as described below, I came up with 1.1B shares that will be oustanding. Is this any way near what you have?

-------
So when we finish the exercise of restructuring, the shareholding structure will be Truebond, 62 percent equity, Odua Investment, 15 percent and the remaining 23 percent will be held by15,640 Nigerians
--------

pumping777:

Oya, wey my commission?  

This na real sledge hammer and I hammer the tin correct. 125% after all said and done in 5 weeks. Chei!!

To compensate Scoa, I must buy one 504 this year. Dem still dey sell am?

I envy you guysooo! I never get liver to chop more than 40% on any stock. Something go just de hammer for my head say e go crash the next day. Congrats!!!

windywendy:

My bros you see am so? Me sef get some couple of million units inside. Make them list quick quick jare.

You pipped me to the post on that na only 1 million i gree buy that time. Remember that was around the same time the disaster called Dangote Flour came out i for don load some more Union Diagnostics

Sis. Windy - na you be my case study for NSE  , so far i haven't seen any failure so far, my only problem be my useless broker, not good at all for CiCo.
Imagine they couldn't buy UBA at 50 y'day - what excuse can you have for that? And, i have been poilite and nice. I think i have to pull executive trigger on them.
But, you get liver o - neimeith   and footwear last week  

pumping777:

@Windywendy - Based on the restructuring at Niwicable as described below, I came up with 1.1B shares that will be oustanding. Is this any way near what you have?

-------
So when we finish the exercise of restructuring, the shareholding structure will be Truebond, 62 percent equity, Odua Investment, 15 percent and the remaining 23 percent will be held by15,640 Nigerians
--------

According to Guru Emeritus easimoni's spreadsheet 1.1B shares were created to accommodate Truebond 62% stake in addition to what was already on the ground so i have in total 1.6B shares for Niwicable

pumping777:

@Windywendy - Based on the restructuring at Niwicable as described below, I came up with 1.1B shares that will be oustanding. Is this any way near what you have?

-------
So when we finish the exercise of restructuring, the shareholding structure will be Truebond, 62 percent equity, Odua Investment, 15 percent and the remaining 23 percent will be held by15,640 Nigerians
--------

My figures are a bit higher. I came up with 1.7b (1.1b divided by 62%) and put the fair value at about 8, based on a projected P/E of between 27 and 30, which I believe is reasonable for a company with growth prospects similar to those of niwicable. Of course, I bought at an average of 7.2. The company has very outstanding growth prospects, so we wait and see how the market will price the stock once results get released.

SavvyLanre:


But, you get liver o - neimeith and footwear last week

That one fear me no be small o!

windywendy:

My figures are a bit higher. I came up with 1.7b (

My spreadsheet is showing 1.6B

RoughCut:

You pipped me to the post on that na only 1 million i gree buy that time. Remember that was around the same time the disaster called Dangote Flour came out i for don load some more Union Diagnostics

Yes o, I remember that time. No be me and you dey dissect am for the stockmarketnigeria forum? Abi na me and Pumping? Anyway I believe the company has really good prospects. My only concern is that this one wey dem do 100% allotment, I hope they won't go and list like 16b shares _{(just kidding)} because I heard the PP was 200% subscribed.

windywendy:

I doubt that Bigtreat will hit N10, but you never know with the way the market is performing these days. Imagine Alumaco at 21, meanwhile a bank like FCMB with waaaayyyy better fundamentals and prospects is trading at below 20   However if today's trading numbers are anything to go by, Bigtreat traded as low as it could possibly trade and almost touched the highest it could possibly trade at. Average price was 11.12 so it's looking like 11 might be a support price. There's no significant difference between 10 and 11, so I suggest you start buying at 11 if you want to do a quick cico on the stock.

NSE is weird, definitely, but it's definitely making a lot of smile!

@Highlander: I don't know where niwicable will be headed to, and I don't know when either. That na bigboylarry question Howeve they're projecting PAT of 500m so you decide what value you want to place on the stock.

Thanks. Would need to consult bigboylarry on that - or maybe not .

SavvyLanre:

Sis. Windy - na you be my case study for NSE  , so far i haven't seen any failure so far, my only problem be my useless broker, not good at all for CiCo.
Imagine they couldn't buy UBA at 50 y'day - what excuse can you have for that? And, i have been poilite and nice. I think i have to pull executive trigger on them.
But, you get liver o - neimeith   and footwear last week  

Bros, na pure cico be this one o, and I hardly hold such risky positions beyond 4 days, plus I give open sell mandates on such positions to my broker -- sell once you smell any rat   . It has worked well so far _{but I dey settle the guy big time sha}  . It's a bull market, so we ride the bull and go back to fundamentals after the bull gets tired, unless of course you're investing for the medium or long term (my opinion o, caveat plenti! abi na empty )

windywendy:

I doubt that Bigtreat will hit N10, but you never know with the way the market is performing these days. Imagine Alumaco at 21, meanwhile a bank like FCMB with waaaayyyy better fundamentals and prospects is trading at below 20 However if today's trading numbers are anything to go by, Bigtreat traded as low as it could possibly trade and almost touched the highest it could possibly trade at. Average price was 11.12 so it's looking like 11 might be a support price. There's no significant difference between 10 and 11, so I suggest you start buying at 11 if you want to do a quick cico on the stock.

@Highlander: I don't know where niwicable will be headed to, and I don't know when either. That na bigboylarry question Howeve they're projecting PAT of 500m so you decide what value you want to place on the stock.

FCMB sigh, I keep looking at mine like what is this? In due time, they'll def deliver, Alumaco at 21 is madness!!
I just calculated NIWICABLE's speculated price/true value and all I can say is WOW infact I cant even post it on here, no money to buy till later in march, for medium term

Highlander:

Thanks. Would need to consult bigboylarry on that - or maybe not .

That's for NIWICABLE!

My Sis. Windy - na you biko

While, i have you, pumping and roughcut online - what is your take on tranexpr? I want to load some more,

windywendy:

Yes o, I remember that time. No be me and you dey dissect am for the stockmarketnigeria forum? Abi na me and Pumping? Anyway I believe the company has really good prospects. My only concern is that this one wey them do 100% allotment, I hope they won't go and list like 16b shares _{(just kidding)} because I heard the PP was 200% subscribed.

It was probably you and Pumping on SMN we did some analysis on this thread but if anybody read the PP prospectus you wouldnt have failed to spot that the guys were running a virtual monopoly in their field like i said in the morning and they were going to be very agrressive in going for out-sourced contracts in the govt and specialist hospitals.

I think they offered less than 5B shares if i remember correctly so 200% allotment no harm done!

At least no nowhere near Universal insurance that listed 16B a few weeks ago and almost 1B were traded last week friday. What a joke!

Windy,
Oga pumping say na u get ABCTRANS o,
so begin yearn. Where is it leading to?

Thanks Oga pumping.

Do take care.

RoughCut:

It was probably you and Pumping on SMN we did some analysis on this thread but if anybody read the PP prospectus you wouldnt have failed to spot that the guys were running a virtual monopoly in their field like i said in the morning and they were going to be very agrressive in going for out-sourced contracts in the govt and specialist hospitals.

I think they offered less than 5B shares if i remember correctly so 200% allotment no harm done!

At least no nowhere near Universal insurance that listed 16B a few weeks ago and almost 1B were traded last week friday. What a joke!

Oh yes, I also remember doing some analysis with Temmie10 and Frankiriri on this thread, with my spreadsheet valuations and all that. Time flies sha  . Anyway let's wait and see how this goes. I think they said they'll be paying a dividend of like 10 or 20kobo right? They're also targeting a HMO license. Don't know how far they've gone with that. But HMO business is very profitable, even banks like oceanic are moving into it, and IFC recently sponsored one along with Hygeia.

SavvyLanre:

My Sis. Windy - na you biko

While, i have you, pumping and roughcut online - what is your take on tranexpr? I want to load some more,

I think Transexpress needs to come down another 10-15% before i go near it though. Myself and wanaj0 were begging Mypeace to let us in when it was N0.85_{yes i meant exactly 85K} about 3-4 months ago but she no gree do anything.

So for me to go and buy at around N10 now my liver no gree and its illiquid by the way!

windywendy:

Oh yes, I also remember doing some analysis with Temmie10 and Frankiriri on this thread, with my spreadsheet valuations and all that. Time flies sha  . Anyway let's wait and see how this goes. I think they said they'll be paying a dividend of like 10 or 20kobo right?

Yep that's right.

Dividend i go dash them the dividend when i don hit like N3M profit on spreadsheet. Make them list sharpish make spreadsheet profit no come disappear o.

God forbid bad thing. Person no go see fire for inside well

RoughCut:


So for me to go and buy at around N10 now my liver no gree and its illiquid by the way!

Illiquid - Not anymore o, some people don begin dey dump now, so there are more volume traded. (e be like say i don enter armrobber moto) if it drops some more i am definitely getting some more - except if i am advised otherwise here, the projected PE i have from Easi's sheet is currently at 15.

SavvyLanre:

Illiquid - Not anymore o, some people don begin dey dump now, so there are more volume traded. (e be like say i don enter armrobber moto) if it drops some more i am definitely getting some more - except if i am advised otherwise here, the projected PE i have from Easi's sheet is currently at 15.

Yes, it's not illiquid anymore. I bought at way less than N10, so I would think 10 is expensive because forward p/e at that price is more than 40 (assuming projected PAT of 59m and factoring in the 1for1 rights issue approved in december 07). If you're thinking long term, maybe 10 is good, but they'll have to make a lot more than 59m PAT for me to begin considering them. I still have some small units there sha.

SavvyLanre:

Illiquid - Not anymore o, some people don begin dey dump now, so there are more volume traded. (e be like say i don enter armrobber moto) if it drops some more i am definitely getting some more - except if i am advised otherwise here, the projected PE i have from Easi's sheet is currently at 15.

Let them continue dumping may be there's still hope afterall

RoughCut:

Yep that's right.

Dividend i go dash them the dividend when i don hit like N3M profit on spreadsheet. Make them list sharpish make spreadsheet profit no come disappear o.

God forbid bad thing. Person no go see fire for inside well

LOL!! . Anyway make dem list first. Although this is one stock I believe would deliver more value medium to long term than short term. But let's wait and see how the market does.