This is the most horrifying but yet informative thread on Nairaland.During the IBB legendary windfall,oil was only 40 dollar and our production rate was less than 1.5 million barrels/day.I weep for my Naija.

Is this same Soludo that many of you castigated during and after his tenure as CBN Governor and the certified rapscallion Atiku that you guys now believe?? There are threads and posts on Nairaland to show how many and which you slammed them for their parts in running Nigeria down.

^^^

Anyone that castigates Soludo doesn't know anything.

The unfortunate thing is that Atiku just prove that he lives in the past. Even advanced economy service its budget with loans. Jonatha's govt increased minimum wage from 7,500 to 18k which is abt 200% increment. It goes into recurrent expenditures. Apart from oil revenue, non-oil sector is expected to generate over 500B. The budget is predicated on 60 dollar per barrel, and oil sells above 80usd. Nigeria gains at least 20 usd on every barrel that goes in Sovereign Wealt Account. We need not borrow.

@Obiagu1
Why are you so quick to insult on such a simple matter involving facts. My statement is "dynamic" in nature - ballooned means grew rapidly:
2. (of an amount of money) Increase rapidly: "the company's debt has ballooned in the last five years"; "ballooning government spending".  

And recurrent expenditure did grow rapidly. What I did not say, and on the basis of which you were making your assumption and calling me a liar, is that it also grew under Yar'adua/Jonathan. Look below to see that my statement was correct. If you wanted to add that it has grown ALSO under Yar'adua/GEJ then do that without calling people names. A'right!!!

Obiagu1:

Stop lying!  
In 2007, the last budget by OBJ was N2.3 Trillion and total recurrent expenditure (non-debt) was N1.057 Trillion.
Now in 2011, the total expenditure is N4.22 trillion with 33% financed thru borrowing, the total recurrent expenditure (non-debt) is N2.481Trillion, so how does your statement add up?

I have said it that GEJ might have a good heart , but I feel the he is not intellectually sound enough to move this country forward. Sad really sad.

@Obiagu1
Again you are talking b/4 being fully aware of your data or what is being said. Oil price chart 1996-2010 below show that oil prices reached its highest level ever in 2007 before collapsing in 2008. The lack of foresight by Yar'adua (who may be paying off his constituency at the time, while pretending to be Mr. Nice Guy) was that he jacked up recurrent expenditures even as oil prices collapsed. Ordinarily, it would be difficult to manage such a price collapse under constant expenditures but to almost double it, was like everything the guy touched, ruinous.

Obiagu1:

I'll add that oil price in 2007 was between $35 and $40, now it is over $90.

.

@ koruji,

If you find “lying” offensive, sorry about that; but I’ll still say what you said was untrue (if this is more acceptable to you).

Accusing OBJ and Soludo of ballooning recurrent expenditure is not wise, from the table you gave, the recurrent expenditure grew by 19% from 2004-2005, 5% to 2006, and 14% to 2007 and total growth from 2004 to 2007 was 47.9%.

Now compare it with Yar’dua and GEJ, only in 2008, it grew by 33%. From 2007 to 2011, it grew by 89.2% if debt part is excluded, adding that, it will be over a 100%.

Do you see the difference? Who do you now accuse of ballooning government recurrent expenditure? I need an answer here so don’t dodge it.

Oil price chart 1996-2010 below show that oil prices reached its highest level ever in 2007 before collapsing in 2008

Sorry but from your chart the climax was actually in 2008 and it remains very high compared with the Abacha/IBB era.

I already answered your question - you could say that Yar'adua/GEJ also ballooned it, but so did OBJ/Atiku. It remains a fact that the former suffered one of the biggest collapse in oil prices in recent times (they enjoyed the rapid increase for about 6 months before everything collapsed under them), while the latter experienced a rapid increase lasting almost 5 years between 2002 and 2007.

Note that the numbers in the table for 2008 were probably based on the budget - actual expenditures should be available when we see the 2010 statistics or so.

Obiagu1:

@ koruji,

If you find “lying” offensive, sorry about that; but I’ll still say what you said was untrue (if this is more acceptable to you).

Accusing OBJ and Soludo of ballooning recurrent expenditure is not wise, from the table you gave, the recurrent expenditure grew by 19% from 2004-2005, 5% to 2006, and 14% to 2007 and total growth from 2004 to 2007 was 47.9%.

Now compare it with Yar’dua and GEJ, only in 2008, it grew by 33%. From 2007 to 2011, it grew by 89.2% if debt part is excluded, adding that, it will be over a 100%.

Do you see the difference? Who do you now accuse of ballooning government recurrent expenditure? I need an answer here so don’t dodge it. 

Obiagu1 and Everyone dancing to the tune of Atiku  you make me laugh.

So, Atiku gets a pass, thanks to a well crafted piece by somebody alleged to be Soludo.
The same Atiku who is alleged to be facing money laundering charges in the US??
The same Atiku who is alleged to own a sizeable chunk of Nigeria?? Garnered by greed??

You guys mean he gets a pass because he submitted a well crafted  addition and subtraction??

Isn't this double standard??

@Abagworo
Correct. It continued rising till mid-2008 b/4 the collapse, but the oil price in 2007 was between $60 & $100, not $30-$40.

Both OBJ/Atiku & Yar'adua/GEJ administrations spent the money as it came in - no regard for the fact that oil price increases don't last forever. In fact, according to the provisional numbers in the above statistics table the latter were supposed to run a surplus in 2008 - those numbers probably came from the budget. The final numbers will most likely show a large deficit due to the oil price collapse.

The problem was that once you jack up expenses based on short-run income it is always difficult to lower it when you run dry. You can abandon capital projects, but you cannot reduce worker's salaries.

What Atiku is doing to Jonathan now is reminiscient, but a fake version, of how Awolowo warned Shagari of economic collapse in 1983. Unlike Awolowo, Atiku was a principal participant, 2nd in command, of the rot that led up to the economic collapse. All this talk about hating OBJ was later in the day as we all know.

I hope Atiku is not hoping for a military coup - because that would be the end of Nigeria.

Abagworo:


Sorry but from your chart the climax was actually in 2008 and it remains very high compared with the Abacha/IBB era.

koruji:

I already answered your question - you could say that Yar'adua/GEJ also ballooned it, but so did OBJ/Atiku. It remains a fact that the former suffered one of the biggest collapse in oil prices in recent times (they enjoyed the rapid increase for about 6 months before everything collapsed under them), while the latter experienced a rapid increase lasting almost 5 years between 2002 and 2007.

Looking at the percentages I gave you, since I don't know what is the acceptable increment in economics, I will say, with both regimes placed side by side, that Yar'dua/GEj/Sambo ballooned the recurrent expenditure excessively and not OBJ/Atiku.

jamace:

Atiku is only a noisemaker and has no love for this country. He has been tested and he failed woefully. His shoddy, selfish and looting ability  were  exposed in his handling of BPE during OBJ tenure. Be informed also that Atiku is busy junketting his investments from US to Saudi Arabia to escape US anti-corruption agency radar. If he has vision for the development of Nigeria, why did he not invest in Nigeria but hidding his stolen wealth in foreign lands?

Kai, politics sweet o. See looter teaching us budgetting and some people are hailing him, claiming he is making sense. Na wa o

For once I want to put this name calling of Atiku in perspective and I hope you read it with an open mind.

Atiku left the customs service of Nigeria in 1985! That is some 25 years ago. Do you think he has been stagnant since that time? Or you do not have friends that have improved their station in life after leaving their previous jobs?

When Atiku started Intels Oil Services back in the early 90s from a single storey building as a fully indigenous company to compete with the Harliburtons of this world, it was termed preposterous. When he changed the company to fully focus on providing logistics services to the oil companies, it was the only indigenous company providing such services. Thus when the pro-Nigerian and national content started, Intels was well positioned to benefit.

The BPE issue. Prior to Atiku being the head of the BPE that is the 1999 -2003 era, can you tell me which sector the bPE successfully privatized? The example of Nitel that the then BPE headed by El-Rufai took from a N10B revenue company and sold to Pentascope to manage which made a N10B loss by the 2nd year! Compare that to all the companies that were privatized when Atiku became head of BPE. You might have issues with him buying those companies, but know that he also paid the highest for these companies. Ask yourself, if your commonwealth was been sold, would you rather it be sold for $50M or $100M? And to also have the benefit that the companies work.
You might also want to do a small comparison of the state of the companies that Atiku bought vis-a-vis the one that OBJ caused to be sold to his cronies.

Since some of you have heard about the 58 suitcases scandal in Nigeria, you might want to read up about the customs officer that blew the scandal. And while at it, find out why Atiku was retired in 1985. You might be in for some shocking revelation. Don't take my word for it, just read up or find out about it.

OMO IBO:

Obiagu1 and Everyone dancing to the tune of Atiku  you make me laugh.

So, Atiku gets a pass, thanks to a well crafted piece by somebody alleged to be Soludo.
The same Atiku who is alleged to be facing money laundering charges in the US??
The same Atiku who is alleged to own a sizeable chunk of Nigeria?? Garnered by greed??

You guys mean he gets a pass because he submitted a well crafted  addition and subtraction??

Isn't this double standard??

Till someone charge or indict Atiku, all you say is just accusations, yes he is rich, no doubt he made money while in custom (everyone knows how Nigerian custom works), but what about GEJ? How did he become a millionaire? Which investments does he have? He made his made mainly in politics.

Even OBJ was corrupt but he left billions of dollars in reserve for us, now it's all gone with the wind!

From both thieves, Atiku and GEJ, I'll go with Atiku mainly because of rotational presidency which is important to southerners and also  because GEJ is a dunce.

OMO IBO:

Obiagu1 and Everyone dancing to the tune of Atiku  you make me laugh.

So, Atiku gets a pass, thanks to a well crafted piece by somebody alleged to be Soludo.
The same Atiku who is alleged to be facing money laundering charges in the US??
The same Atiku who is alleged to own a sizeable chunk of Nigeria?? Garnered by greed??

You guys mean he gets a pass because he submitted a well crafted  addition and subtraction??

Isn't this double standard??

No it is NOT! GEJ gets a F9 for a budget that was crafted for him by people alleged to be the Budget office.
The same GEJ that is alleged to have siphoned millions of Bayelsa State money using his wife.
The same GEj that is alleged to own many hotels in Yenogoa? Garnered when he was Governor?

Atiku gets a pass because he is able to dissect the budget and bring out issues for you and I to see. If you are wise, you would know that it takes a smart person to surround himself with smart and intelligent people, whether allegedly Soludo or Okonjo-Iwealla, no probs.
Compare that to GEJ that surrounds himself with the likes of OBJ, Anenih, David Mark, etc. A man that has 53 people advising him!

As you'd know, when an Einstein writes a formula on the board, the uneducated would see it as simple alphabets, lines and strokes.  

Anytime my man Atiku is in the news. . . I am forced to log on to give him my undying support.
He has not failed me yet.

Gooooooooooooooooooo "Tikkkkkkkkkkkkkku"!!!!!

@Akainzo
Quote: "You might have issues with him buying those companies, but know that he also paid the highest for these companies. Ask yourself, if your commonwealth was been sold, would you rather it be sold for $50M or $100M? And to also have the benefit that the companies work. You might also want to do a small comparison of the state of the companies that Atiku bought vis-a-vis the one that OBJ caused to be sold to his cronies."

Of all your wrote this is most reprehensible. I hope Atiku didn't send you to write this, since this is like a confession. We know how corruption works in Nigeria. That you would use Atiku's selling of government companies to himself for more than it could be sold to someone else to defend him is head-shaking 

Let me say it plain and simple right now - [size=14pt]Atiku is not qualified to be Nigeria's president [/size] if we have any kind of sense. All the companies he sold to himself ought to be taken back from him, and then he needs to go to jail - just like everyone else that has benefited in the same way.

One day will be one day.

Akainzo:

For once I want to put this name calling of Atiku in perspective and I hope you read it with an open mind.

Atiku left the customs service of Nigeria in 1985! That is some 25 years ago. Do you think he has been stagnant since that time? Or you do not have friends that have improved their station in life after leaving their previous jobs?

When Atiku started Intels Oil Services back in the early 90s from a single storey building as a fully indigenous company to compete with the Harliburtons of this world, it was termed preposterous. When he changed the company to fully focus on providing logistics services to the oil companies, it was the only indigenous company providing such services. Thus when the pro-Nigerian and national content started, Intels was well positioned to benefit.

The BPE issue. Prior to Atiku being the head of the BPE that is the 1999 -2003 era, can you tell me which sector the bPE successfully privatized? The example of Nitel that the then BPE headed by El-Rufai took from a N10B revenue company and sold to Pentascope to manage which made a N10B loss by the 2nd year! Compare that to all the companies that were privatized when Atiku became head of BPE. You might have issues with him buying those companies, but know that he also paid the highest for these companies. Ask yourself, if your commonwealth was been sold, would you rather it be sold for $50M or $100M? And to also have the benefit that the companies work.
You might also want to do a small comparison of the state of the companies that Atiku bought vis-a-vis the one that OBJ caused to be sold to his cronies.

Since some of you have heard about the 58 suitcases scandal in Nigeria, you might want to read up about the customs officer that blew the scandal. And while at it, find out why Atiku was retired in 1985. You might be in for some shocking revelation. Don't take my word for it, just read up or find out about it.

Koruji

From your own chat. The crash (i.e. periods when oil prices may actually be below budget estimates) was for a short time around late 2008 or early 2009 . And that crash is mainly of no effect because the budget estimates was based on around $37 per barrel. Hence even during periods of drops in oil prices around the 1st - 2nd quater of 2008, we should still be ok because if oil price was $150/barrel and drops to $60 while budget estimates were based on $37/barrel; a Govt that knows what they are doing will still be in excess. Now also note that  oil price crash to about $35/barrel only stayed at lowest point for a short time of lets say 3 months. The rest of the time its been between $60 - $150.

So what exactly is going on? why is GEJ always trying to borrow in the midst of what is a relative boom.

Do you honestly believe that based on the chat above we should be running as much in deficit as we are now if there was prudent management of the economy.

If OBJ/Atiku could save $40b with modest boom in oil prices; I think the least Yar'adua/GEJ and GEJ/Sambo should have done based on the chat above is to either double the reserve or massively improved our infrastructure on ground.

But curriously none has been achieved.

There is a pattern emerging here, Jonathan left a huge deficit in Bayelsa with nothing to show for it.

Now he wants to do same to Nigeria.

Nice one Obiagu1.
Now I know where you stand.

I'm glad you know both are thieves. I'm sure you know that as thieves, they cannot be trusted.
Both have skeletons in their cupboards.
Both aim to knock each other out with as many sucker punches as possible

What Atiku has done is expected and I commend him. It won't  be too long before team GEJ tender a response. I'm sure his will equally be as convincing as Atiku's. . . Well to some.

I will honestly like to know what OBJ makes of erossion of a reserve he worked so hard to raise its profile.

Even OBJ will certainly not be impressed with GEJ at this time.

OMO IBO:

Nice one Obiagu1.
Now I know where you stand.

I'm glad you know both are thieves. I'm sure you know that as thieves, they cannot be trusted.
Both have skeletons in their cupboards.
Both aim to knock each other out with as many sucker punches as possible

What Atiku has done is expected and I commend him. It won't be too long before team GEJ tender a response. I'm sure his will equally be as convincing as Atiku's. . . Well to some.

This is not about being convincing to some. This is about producing a response that stands up to scrutiny. GEJ and his team spent more time crafting a rigging manual on how to scheme their way through and I am sure their response on this will be half-baked.

The state of oil prices certainly has a role, but it goes hand-in-hand with the level of your obligation.

I do not have an "obligation to attack any perceived opponents". What I am suggesting, if you read my last line, is that: 1) Atiku may be right in his criticism; 2) But he was part of the rot that led to this point - is Atiku trying to dissociate himself from the OBJ/Atiku admin or even Yar'adua; 3) With his antecedents he would probably be doing worse in the same shoes. The challenge to Atiku is to disprove 3) by showing us what he & his economic advisers will do different.

I am a fan of Soludo, but that might not be obvious. Still, I am not blind to the fact that he was reluctant to admit/deal with the banking collapse that followed the oil price collapse.

I am not a fan of Atiku - his corrupt deals are just one too many. Atiku/Soludo probably go way back, which might suggest that they are not really that different. That reminds me of the corruption that arose out of the currency printing just before Soludo left CBN.

God, our country is rotten with corruption from head to toe

mikeansy:

whats the state of oil prices at  the moment and what has been the state of oil prices in the last 12 months? That has been the basis of this budget critic. How come at a time of Oil Boom, we are still trying to borrow money from everywhere else to finance our budget and yet there are no major infrastructures we have spent the money on.

Read the critic again with an open mind as a Nigerian and forget your obligation to attack perceieved opponents back and then we can have a reasonable conversation.

BTW before you criticise Atiku/Soludo, remember that when Atiku left office with OBJ; the reserves stood at over $40b dollars in spite of the challenges of recurrent expenditures that they too had. When you criticise Soludo I hope you will compare the state of banks that Soludo met and the state of banks he left and offer an honest critic.

koruji:

@Akainzo
Quote: "You might have issues with him buying those companies, but know that he also paid the highest for these companies. Ask yourself, if your commonwealth was been sold, would you rather it be sold for $50M or $100M? And to also have the benefit that the companies work. You might also want to do a small comparison of the state of the companies that Atiku bought vis-a-vis the one that OBJ caused to be sold to his cronies."

Of all your wrote this is most reprehensible. I hope Atiku didn't send you to write this, since this is like a confession. We know how corruption works in Nigeria. That you would use Atiku's selling of government companies to himself for more than it could be sold to someone else to defend him is head-shaking 

Let me say it plain and simple right now - Atiku is not qualified to be Nigeria's president  if we have any kind of sense. All the companies he sold to himself ought to be taken back from him, and then he needs to go to jail - just like everyone else that has benefited in the same way.

One day will be one day.

From the above, it shows that you are one of those that go postulating without knowledge. Do you know the privatization process / procedures operating in Nigeria? Let me educate you, it is an auction. It goes to the highest bidder that have passed the technical qualifications. Those companies need to be sold and were sold at the best economic price for Nigeria.
Compare that to when BPE sold Nitel to Pentascope, it brought the company down and made it moribund. Or is is Ajaokuta or DSC? Remove the speck in your eyes and start reasoning.

And he did not sell the companies to himself, as if by fiat. Let me ask you, do you know of the PortHarcourt Refinery fiasco, the reason for the personal animosity between him and OBJ prior to the Third Term? Obviously, you do not read to learn nor follow the goings on in this country but only woke up to start spewing because an inexperienced and majorly incompetent ND person is contesting.

Koruji

I do not want to derail this thread by changing it to Soludo's records. But also keep something in mind, a lot with economic stability, market and recession has to do with the perception of the public. Soludo simply tried his best to manage this perception during a period of worldwide economic upheveal and there is nothing wrong with that.

If you want to debate Soludo's records then lets start a thread and compare Nigerian Banking System pre-Soludo and the one Soludo left behind and lets see if what Soludo left behind is not million times better than what he met.

Lets stick to Atiku. He is who this thread is all about.

koruji:

The state of oil prices certainly has a role, but it goes hand-in-hand with the level of your obligation.

I do not have an "obligation to attack any perceived opponents". What I am suggesting, if you read my last line, is that: 1) Atiku may be right in his criticism; 2) But he was part of the rot that led to this point - is Atiku trying to dissociate himself from the OBJ/Atiku admin or even Yar'adua; 3) With his antecedents he would probably be doing worse in the same shoes. The challenge to Atiku is to disprove 3) by showing us what he & his economic advisers will do different.

I am a fan of Soludo, but that might not be obvious. Still, I am not blind to the fact that he was reluctant to admit/deal with the banking collapse that followed the oil price collapse.

I am not a fan of Atiku - his corrupt deals are just one too many. Atiku/Soludo probably go way back, which might suggest that they are not really that different. That reminds me of the corruption that arose out of the currency printing just before Soludo left CBN.

God, our country is rotten with corruption from head to toe

This thread is not about Soludo but I’ll point out that Soludo did nothing wrong. Banking problems was mainly internal, corruption inside the banks which can be hard to detect. It’s Sanusi’s area of specialty that’s why he was able to detect it. Also, Sanusi was within the system (with First Bank) and knew about it but nobody raised a red flag.

In the US, it was the same thing despite the fact they have better checks and regulations. They could not even detect Madoff’s scandal which is in billions of dollars.

OMO IBO:

Obiagu1 and Everyone dancing to the tune of Atiku  you make me laugh.

So, Atiku gets a pass, thanks to a well crafted piece by somebody alleged to be Soludo.
The same Atiku who is alleged to be facing money laundering charges in the US??
The same Atiku who is alleged to own a sizeable chunk of Nigeria?? Garnered by greed??

You guys mean he gets a pass because he submitted a well crafted  addition and subtraction??

Isn't this double standard??

Why cant you and others also forget about Atiku and face the facts?

The question is: Is this the kind of budget we need at this time?

@mikeansy
They jacked up the basis for the budget to $70 or something like that before the collapse. As recently as the current budget they were still debating the need to lower it below $65 - not sure what they finally used, but it is likely to be more than $40.

When prices collapsed Yar'adua started dipping into the ECA, but the real problem was, like I illustrated in another post, once you jack up your obligation it is difficult to lower it. You are stuck with borrowing or raiding other accounts, such as the ECA. And when the ECA is gone, you are going to borrow large.

Last year, when Aganga started preparing the stage for this massive borrowing I condemned it and raised an alarm and recently posted articles on the borrowing request made to the NASS.

There are reasons why Jonathan might do this, but it is not at all clear. What is clear is that this massive borrowing will not be good for Nigeria.

However, I believe Atiku would do the same or even worse - that argues against both guys, not for either of them.

mikeansy:

Koruji

From your own chat. The crash (i.e. periods when oil prices may actually be below budget estimates) was for a short time around late 2008 or early 2009 . And that crash is mainly of no effect because the budget estimates was based on around $37 per barrel. Hence even during periods of drops in oil prices around the 1st - 2nd quater of 2008, we should still be ok because if oil price was $150/barrel and drops to $60 while budget estimates were based on $37/barrel; a Govt that knows what they are doing will still be in excess. Now also note that  oil price crash to about $35/barrel only stayed at lowest point for a short time of lets say 3 months. The rest of the time its been between $60 - $150.

So what exactly is going on? why is GEJ always trying to borrow in the midst of what is a relative boom.

Do you honestly believe that based on the chat above we should be running as much in deficit as we are now if there was prudent management of the economy.

If OBJ/Atiku could save $40b with modest boom in oil prices; I think the least Yar'adua/GEJ and GEJ/Sambo should have done based on the chat above is to either double the reserve or massively improved our infrastructure on ground.

But curriously none has been achieved.

@Obiagu1
Well, if he is helping Atiku then it is about all of them.

I would say this is an excuse. Prof. Soludo knew the banks were collapsing - he was only reluctant to deal with or admit it or may be, as you said, it wasn't his area of speciality - but he knew. As for the cause of the collapse - yes, it was mainly caused by corrupt bank directors with access to huge government funds. . .

Obiagu1:

This thread is not about Soludo but I’ll point out that Soludo did nothing wrong. Banking problems was mainly internal, corruption inside the banks which can be hard to detect. It’s Sanusi’s area of specialty that’s why he was able to detect it.

In the US, it was the same thing despite the fact they have better checks and regulations. They could not even detect Madoff’s scandal which is in billions of dollars.

koruji:

@Obiagu1
Well, if he is helping Atiku then it is about all of them.

I would say this is an excuse. Prof. Soludo knew the banks were collapsing - he was only reluctant to deal with or admit it or may be, as you said, it wasn't his area of speciality - but he knew. As for the cause of the collapse - yes, it was mainly caused by corrupt bank directors with access to huge government funds. . .

This is why I have problem with people. How do you know he knew about it? Was any article published on this issue before they were discovered by Sanusi? Just a link and the case will be put to rest, else leave Soludo alone.