ekt_bear:

As Kilode said, why didn't this inform your voting patterns in 1999, 2003 and 2007? In each election, there has been a candidate strongly supported by the North. Why is it only now that I am supposed to believe you came out at 85%+ voting rates to reject that candidate?

^you don't want to let go of your thesis. There is a gulf between sterile spreadsheets and the pain of history. Ask any Igbo or Berom man. Again I ask you have you taken time to read the Willink report. It might help you understand where I am coming from.
In 1999 Falae vs. OBJ (so where was the Hausa candidate to reject here?)
In 2003 OBJ vs. Buhari (so did Buhari win any MB or SS or SE states?)
In 2007 Yar'Adua vs. Buhari (rejected Buhari and chose the lesser evil)

ekt_bear:

I don't think the percentage of non-indigenes in Katsina is as high as it is in PH or Rivers State, for one. Second, not clear that most of those Yoruba would vote ACN. . . if the SW #s are any indication, they seemed to have voted PDP in fairly large #s. The same doesn't appear to be true for core Northerners.

You are speculating. You do not know what proportion of Katsina population is non-indigenes. If it is "not clear that most of those Yoruba would vote ACN". . .why is it so clear to you that Northerners in PH will vote CPC?  

Aletheia,

Asking Ekt bear to read the Willink Minorities Commission Report will not help him though. He probably has no idea what the Willink Report deals with.

aletheia:

^Could it be for a reason as prosiac as the fact that their "son" was running for President: a presumably once in a lifetime event. Surely that would motivate them to turn out massively.

Katsina's son was also running for president. 52% voter turnout there, versus 85.61% in Bayelsa. Why?

Why does this "son" factor result in 1.6X the turnout rate in Bayelsa, versus Katsina?

Furthermore, according to you, this is some sort of emancipation event. Middle belters, SS, SE all rejecting Hausa-Fulani domination. So why the hell didn't the middle belt turn out at the same rates as the SS and SE? Hell, why didn't EBONYI turn out at the same rate as the rest of the SE? Why 47.87% in EBONYI, 83.56% in IMO?



Were some less keen on rejecting Hausa-Fulani domination than others?

Smh. People will go to any lengths to find justification for outcomes they like, no matter how implausible they seem. . .

Kobojunkie:

NO matter how you try to wrap up the portion in bold, you still cannot get it to explain the part in red. People turned out to vote does not explain 99% voting numbers.

Yes, it does. So does that mean that Abiola's numbers in 1993 were cooked as well? I dont think so.

In every democracy, it is well known that election are won, not necessarily by the best candidate nor by the most accepted candidate. it is the candidate that was better able to mobilize his/her base that wins the election. To the people of Bayelsa, this is personal. And by and large, Nigerians vote along ethnic lines

I really dont think that the numbers were cooked at all.

ekt_bear:

Double and triple the rates   1.2 or 1.3 times more, I can buy. But triple
85.61% of all eligible voters in Bayelsa voted, and 99.63% of them voted for GEJ.
65.81% in Kaduna, 46.31% for GEJ.
52.43% voter turnout in Katsina, 26.13% for GEJ.
34.24% for Ekiti, 51.56% voted for GEJ.
Katsina and Kaduna, in both state presumably there should be very high voter turnout. Yet both were dwarfed by Bayelsa. Why the vast differential in voter apathy?

Well, thats his home state. Why is it inconceivable that people would turn out to vote for him. This is a one time shot for these people. This is a time they never saw coming and you think they would let it slip like that. GEJ was never supposed to be president, he is a minority, most of them probably feel less Nigerian than the rest of the country. But somehow, as fate would have it, they are presented with this opportunity. And, you think they would just sit their arse home and not turn up? I dont think so.

Do you know how having one of theirs in ASOROCK feels? He really doesnt have to do anything for them, the mere fact that he is their son,  in Asorock, is enough for them. He is their pride and the least they could do for their son is to turn up and press on the 'umblerra.' who knows if special accommodation was made for them? what about financial inducements?

Even in the SW, against Falae, people voted for OBJ, but against Buhari, the choice was clear. As a SW'er you were obligated to vote for OBJ, not because he was better than Buhari, but because he was YORUBA. Period.

I really dont think this hullabaloo about the numbers is warranted. Honestly!

Why would a Bayelsan vote for Buhari? What is in it for them with Buhari in Asorock?

Didn't Obama get 90% of the black vote? It doesn't surprise me that Goodluck Jonathan would get such high support from Bayelsa. This is the first time the Ijaw had anyone running for president.

What is striking to me is how backward Ebonyi state is. What is wrong with the Igbos in the state? They are least educated and the most impoverished region in Igboland.

WTF didn't Katsina folk vote for Buhari at the same rate if this "hometown son" theory is valid? Why didn't they have the same impossible turnout (85%+) as Bayelsa did?

Why "hometown son" turnout (83.56%) for Imo, but less interest from Ebonyi (47.87%)? Why didn't the good folk of Benue and Nasarrawa reject Hausa-Fulani domination at the same rate as the good folk of Imo (83.56%)?

^^^

WTH does it matter to you? Are you paranoid of this strong voting bloc?

ekt_bear:

People will go to any lengths to find justification for outcomes they like, no matter how implausible they seem. . .

^
You are entitled to your opinion. CPC also scored just 1.03% in your home state of Ekiti, but that result is not implausible to you. SMH. Some people will go to any lengths to avoid seeing what conflicts with their cherished opinions. I am vindicated by the fact that these results turned out precisely as I predicted.

Ystranger:


Yes, it does. So does that mean that Abiola's numbers in 1993 were cooked as well? I dont think so.

Are the numbers in this case similar to the numbers recorded in the same areas during the 1993 Election?? Please do you have a link to show this??

Ystranger:

In every democracy, it is well known that election are won, not necessarily by the best candidate nor by the most accepted candidate. it is the candidate that was better able to mobilize his/her base that wins the election. To the people of Bayelsa, this is personal. and By and larger, Nigerians vote along ethnic lines

I really dont think that the numbers were cooked at all.

This issue is not really about the competence of the candidates. That does not even matter here. What the concern should be here is how any candidate, out of 17 was able to garner 95% upwards of votes in a particular zone. That is what this is about. Again, there were about 17 candidates on the ballots -- about 4 of them all from the same region, yet only one took most 99% in some cases, of the votes.

Using the reason played earlier by some, are we suggesting that none of the 16 candidates campaigned in the SE/SS, even those candidates who hail from these areas??

Ya'll are a joke, for real.

@aletheia: My home state did not have 99.5%+ voting for a SINGLE candidate! My home state didn't have 85% voter turnout, for pete's sake. 35% voter turnout is reasonable. 45, 50, maybe even 55% for the hometown hero, I can buy. But 85%? That is a sham wrapped in fraud wrapped in a scandal.

^
That's your problem not mine. I understand what's biting you.

*shrug*

Let us not act surprised when aboki goes rampaging, burning down churchs and murdering non-indigenes. At least we cannot pretend as if we don't know what the reason is, or that it is entirely unjustified.

And if you try the same game when it is my own boy running, there will be wahala.

ekt_bear:

*shrug*

Let us not act surprised when aboki goes rampaging, burning down churchs and murdering non-indigenes. At least we cannot pretend as if we don't know what the reason is, or that is is entirely unjustified.

And if you try the same game when it is my own boy running, there will be wahala.

The North have been cheating the South for years so what's your concern?

Do you fear the North so much, that the south cannot play the same game that they have played since Nigeria's inception?

ekt_bear:

Ya'll are a joke, for real.

@aletheia: My home state did not have 99.5%+ voting for a SINGLE candidate! My home state didn't have 85% voter turnout, for pete's sake. 35% voter turnout is reasonable. 45, 50, maybe even 55% for the hometown hero, I can buy. But 85%? That is a sham wrapped in fraud wrapped in a scandal.

I dont think you understand the mentality of the ordinary Nigerian for real. Ekiti, and by extension the rest of the SW, does not have a stake in all of this.

Kobojunkie:

Are the numbers in this case similar to the numbers recorded in the same areas during the 1993 Election?? Please do you have a link to show this??

http://maxsiollun./2009/06/11/16th-anniversary-of-the-june-12-1993-election/

Again not all the numbers were released. But it was well known then that Abiola was coasting to a 90% + return in OGUN, LAGOS aand OSUN,

@ekt bear

You know, like you said before. . . . just learn to give up.

If we need to talk about rigging, look at the SE and Ekiti state. How did CPC end up with 0 votes there? Very skeptical.

Nigerians deserve their leaders. As long as PDP will not be taking over the SW nation. . . . N had their turn, SW had their turn, now it's SS' turn to shine or continue rusting.

ekt_bear:

*shrug*

Let us not act surprised when aboki goes rampaging, burning down churchs and murdering non-indigenes. At least we cannot pretend as if we don't know what the reason is, or that it is entirely unjustified.

A[b]nd if you try the same game when it is my own boy running, there will be wahala.[/b]

Let him go back to Ekiti and deliver his state first.

Even, Tinubu cannot with in Iragbiji. So what are we saying here?

EzeUche_:

The North have been cheating the South for years so what's your concern?

Do you fear the North so much, that the south cannot play the same game that they have played since Nigeria's inception?

I don't give a sh1t about Buhari, to be honest. . . he hasn't shown himself to be a serious candidate to me. All I want for him to do is to challenge the result to avoid setting a bad precedent.

But whether he challenges it or not, if in 2015 or 2019 my own boy is running and there is large scale election fraud like this, I will not accept it.

Ystranger:

Let him go back to Ekiti and deliver his state first.

Even, Tinubu cannot with in Iragbiji. So what are we saying here?

It is a basic matter of fairness and justice, I think. There was no reason for GEJ to inflate voting #s so much in the SS and SE. An election he would have likely won anyway. If he wins with 20 million votes, and 8 million of these are fake, don't you think that is unjust? There is a difference between winning an election with 45% of the total vote and one in which you declare you won 60%.

ekt_bear:

I don't give a sh1t about Buhari, to be honest. . . he hasn't shown himself to be a serious candidate to me. All I want for him to do is to challenge the result to avoid setting a bad precedent.

But whether he challenges it or not, if in 2015 or 2019 my own boy is running and there is large scale election fraud like this, I will not accept it.

You say it is rigging, but that may not be true.

Either way, it is about time the North has a taste of what they have been giving the South all these years. I am happy the North is suffering from this.

And you are complaining about this, while the SW should be uniting with the SE/SS against our common enemy.

Ystranger:

http://maxsiollun./2009/06/11/16th-anniversary-of-the-june-12-1993-election/

Again not all the numbers were released. But it was well known then that Abiola was coasting to a 90% + return in OGUN, LAGOS aand OSUN,

I am looking at the numbers from the 1993 result you posted ( thanks for that by the way)

I see there are only 2 candidates on the ballot for the year 1993 and even where you have the highest recorded number of votes for the one party in Ogun State, the other party still recorded a significant number of votes(12.2% of votes) in the same state.

Try to compare that to today's situation where there are 17 candidates on the ballot, and in just one state 99.6% of the votes went to just 1 candidate, while the others were left to share less than 0.4% out of a million votes. Come on now . . . even you know that is just way . . . . out there.

ekt_bear:

It is a basic matter of fairness and justice, I think. There was no reason for GEJ to inflate voting #s so much in the SS and SE. An election he would have likely won anyway. If he wins with 20 million votes, and 8 million of these are fake, don't you think that is unjust? There is a difference between winning an election with 45% of the total vote and one in which you declare you won 60%.

Honestly, TBH, I dont think the election was cooked. Besides being the 'shon of the shoil,' he has the money to but the votes.

In 1992, during the NRC/SDP election, in my local government alone, all that was needed to buy your vote was N1. I was actually expecting 100%.

I had to clear off sleep to answer this, I don't mean to derail the thread: BUT

aletheia:

My exact words were:[b]^Those of you from the SW are somewhat insulated from the sense of aggrievement felt in these parts of the country because of the depradations of the likes of Babangida, Buhari, and Abacha. [/b]You came close during the June 12 issue, but 12 years on following the pseudo-appeasement of OBJ's presidency, you have forgotten. Those of us in the MB, SS and SE are still paying for it up till today. Believe me; we remember these things and it conditions our voting. Have you read the Willink commission report. We the minorities of the North have waited 50 years for these day.

I'm definitely amazed by your analysis!

The South West lost people, they lost giants, they lost national leaders fighting the idio/ts you listed up there, let's not re-write history too quickly.

MKO Abiola comes to mind, I don't want to list out names of SWners who died fighting the so-called Northern hegemony. You cannot steal that thunder just because of this election, that will be disingenuous, plain wrong to both their memory and the cause of history.

I know people like Papa Alfred Rewane and co from Delta were lost too, but like Papa Anthony Enahoro, those are SSners who stuck with SWners against Central rule and the so-called Northern Hegemony. The political support they got from their own people and other political leaders in the SS cannot be compared to that of the SW, Fact!

It is sad that we are talking about who suffered most from Northern rule when we clearly know that it really wasn't northerners, rather our elites misruling us and selling us out.

But truth must be told. If you count voting patterns, public sentiments and political agitations, it will be a great disservice to the spirit of many opposition SWners to say the stuff you just said and be so dismissive of the struggles SWner have waged against Northerners. Very wrong!

How many votes did Buhari get in the SW? Go figure why.

aletheia:

^We all really need to know the history of this nation better? Have you ever heard of the UMBC from the First Republic? Did you know that in 1959; NCNC won 34% of the votes across the country, both North and South and yet because of the lopsided nature of the Federation (due to British perfidy) the NPC, the 3rd placed party after the NCNC and AG formed the Federal Government. Did you know that the good people of Plateau have never predominantly voted for a Hausa-Fulani dominated party? You may want to reconsider your statement.

All these does not support your argument that SWners were more pro-North compared to SSner and SEners. You need to apologise for your mis-characterisation of Southwesterners and poor reading of Nigerian political history.

Aside from the Biafran war period and it's peculiarities(SSners were in support of Nigeria too) There is no serious student of Nigerian Political history who can point to a time when SWners were Pro-North or pro central government since independence. Probably Not since amalgamation, They were fighting Jihadists before Oyinbos stepped into Africa.

I mean, are we so forgetful? I'm not even going to mention NADECO and list names. WTH?

Somebody should translate this for Alethia: Kaka ka dobale fun Gambari Ka kuku ku oya!

SS and SE are late to the game. fact! but you are all welcome though, just don't leave us hanging again.


Slightly off topic: Join us to restructure this country once and for all.  Devolve powers to the regions or local councils, I bet SWners will massively vote YES to that referendum if we are to have it. I sense SS and SE will too, I doubt Pro-establishment PDP will allow it though.

EDIT: I supported Buhari BTW, for strategic reasons, especially the need to weaken an All-powerful Central government.

Kilode?!:

How many votes did Buhari get in the SW? Go figure why.

^
I see. So why is the number of votes Buhari got in the SE/SS now an issue? And BTW read my post carefully. . .I no where made the assertion that the SW were pro-North. I only said, it seemed they were beginning to forget.

Kilode?

Interesting post there.

Ystranger:

Let him go back to Ekiti and deliver his state first.

When the time comes, all in the SW (and several other zones) shall fully support him. No fear on that.

well,i was in the east for the presidential elections and i might say results came up that way because most of thier major parties here didnt have presidential candidates so they all came out to vote and even cajole votes for PDP.only one NCP vote at the unit where i voted in umuahia north.
it was really PDP all the way and there was a very very large turn out.

leftone:

well,i was in the east for the presidential elections and i might say results came up that way because most of thier major parties here didnt have presidential candidates so they all came out to vote and even cajole votes for PDP.only one NCP vote at the unit where i voted in umuahia north.
it was really PDP all the way and there was a very very large turn out.

The other candidates on the ballot told folks to vote PDP instead

take note that in the east,APGA,PPA all voted for PDP and these are strong parties in the east too.
now,am not saying there weren't irregularities but am just giving some suggestions why some results looked so one sided.

[b][size=13pt]* President Goodluck Jonathan/Mohammed Sambo, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP
* Muhammadu Buhari/Tunde Bakare, Congress for Progressive Change, CPC
* Nuhu Ribadu/Fola Adeola, Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN
* Dele Momodu/Yunusa Tanko, National Conscience Party, NCP
*Ibrahim Shekarau/John Odigie-Oyegun, All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP
* Akpona Solomon, National Majority Democratic Party, NMDP
* Chris Nwaokobia, Liberal Democratic Party, LDP
* Chris Okotie, Fresh Democratic Party. FDP
* Ebiti Ndok/Galadima Samari, United National Party for Development, UNPD
* Iheanyichukwu Nnaji/Kadijat Abubakar, Better Nigeria Progressive Party, BNPP
* John Dara, National Transformation Party, NTP
* Mahmud Waziri/Clement Eze, People for Democratic Change, PDC
* Nwadike Chikezie, Peoples Mandate Party, PMP
* Peter Nwangwu/Mani Ibrahim Ahmad, African Democratic Congress, ADC
* Rasheed Shitta-Bey, Mega Progressive Peoples Party, MPPP
* Yahaya Ndu, African Renaissance Party, AFP
* Ambrose Awuru/Ibrahim Abdullahi, Hope Democratic Party, HDP.[/size][/b]

Barely any votes went to the candidates highlighted in red. Not even 500 votes from those from their inner circle/village -- out of about a million in their state. lol
lol   
http://naijan.com/nigeria-presidential-candidate-list-for-2011-and-their-empty-promises/

@kobojunkie,

yep.other party agents came out to rally votes for pdp,
i voted at ibeku east 1,umuahia north.

aletheia:

^
I see. So why is the number of votes Buhari got in the SE/SS now an issue? And BTW read my post carefully. . .I no where made the assertion that the SW were pro-North. I only said, it seemed they were beginning to forget.

I jumped in to prevent you from believing the points you raised about where the SW people stand. A lot of folks form wrong perceptions based on these things.

BTW, I'm not part of the discussion about SE, SS votes, like I said earlier, they are not too shocking. I can't be bothered really. SW recorded between 85-90% for Bashorun MKO Abiola in 1993. Nigeria is a country were data cannot be trusted, a part of our legacy of misrule and systemic failure. That places all of you number analysts in a difficult situation.


As to the bolded, Alethiea, Bro, They did not forget anything.  Don't be confused by the "smart" strategies of the New SouthWest Progressive and the ACN, they forgot nothing.

Jonathan will be smart to align with them and get this country restructured, supporters such as Beaf believe he would, but with the pro-establishment hawks around him, I'm not sure he can.

Kobojunkie:


I am looking at the numbers from the 1993 result you posted ( thanks for that by the way)

I see there are only 2 candidates on the ballot for the year 1993 and even where you have the highest recorded number of votes for the one party in Ogun State, the other party still recorded a significant number of votes(12.2% of votes) in the same state.

 

So now, if I want to play the devil's advocate and switch sides with you, do you actually believe that Tofa got 12.2% of the votes in Ogun state? When the C-in-C then was an 'Hausa' man like Tofa and Tofa's deputy was Igbo, not Yoruba. And, thats taking the result on surface value.

The whole result was not released and it was well known that Abiola, if the whole results were released, would end up with nothing less than, conservatively,  92% of the votes. The point here is that, if the election was as  fair as Today's, Abiola would have ended up wit 95% + return, because Ogun state was his home state and he was well loved in the state. Now, looking at their political lives, Abiola had enemies within Ogun State. He , over the years, had stepped on some toes, including OBJ and the HID clans, that werent willing to forgive him and would do anything to sabotage his efforts. As far as we know, GEJ is well loved by his people. His approval rating in Bayelsa was in the 90s when he was governor, he did not have any baggage in Bayelsa, no scandal that we are aware of. And, against Buhari, who, however unfair it may sound to him, is a sharia-man. That may not be big deal to you, but to those who want to keep their freedeom and who cant imagine a world devoid of the 'finer things' of life, it is a biggie

Try to compare that to today's situation where there are 17 candidates on the ballot, and in just one state 99.6% of the votes went to just 1 candidate, while the others were left to share less than 0.4% out of a million votes. Come on now . . . even you know that is just way  . . . . out there.

First of all, the other candiddates you are talking about are inconsequential, very few people know them, their antecedents, or their party. You have to realize that the fundamental considerations of party identification and presidential approval are much stronger determinants of vote choice than anything else. Even when Gani fawehinmi, arguably the most famous Lawyer in Nigeria, ran, he could not win his polling booth. He lost to OBJ in Ondo, his hometown. Heck, he even lost to him at his Alagbado office polling station. Was it because he was rigged out? I doubt it.  And, it was well believed that if Gani had run on the PDP platform, even without rigging, he would have won by a moon-slide.

Again people dont vote for the best candidate, they vote for someone they can easily connect with and who has the best odds of winning. No one wants their vote to go to waste.

The other 17 candidates you are talking about barely campaigned outside of their street. Okotie did not campaign in his hometown, why should they vote for him, I make bold to say that 99% of voters in Delta do not know that Okotie was running. Same goes to the high falutin head of the  Lagos Business School, Utomi. How can the ordinary Deltan connect with such a person who speaks in language me sef barely understand. Again, I dont find the numbers absurd for any reason.