Ystranger:

The point here is that, if the election was as  fair as Today's, Abiola would have ended up 95% + return. because, Ogun state was his home state and he was well loved in the state. Now, looking at their political lives, Abiola had enemies within Ogun State. He , over the years, had stepped on some toes, including OBJ and the HID clans,  that werent willing to forgive him and would do anything to sabotage his efforts. As far as we know, GEJ is well loved by his people. His approval rating in Bayelsa was in the 90s, he did not have any baggage in Bayelsa, no scandal that we are aware of. And, against Buhari, who, fowever unfair it may sound to him, is a sharia-man. That may not be big deal to you, but to those who want to keep their freedeom and who cant imagine a world devoid of the 'finer things, of life, it is a biggie

Regardless of what ethnicity the C-in-C was back then, you still should avoid comparing those numbers with the one we got from saturday's count. Again, let's work with the numbers we have here.

12.2% out of 100% makes more sense than 16 candidates sharing less than 0.4% of over 1 million votes. Even worse, in more than 1 state within the same region. I don't think there is anyway you can cut this one to even make sense when placed next to 1993 numbers.

Ystranger:

Besides the 'our son' factor, there is also the fear of what may come form a Buhari presidency.

First of all, the other candiddates you are talking about are inconsequential, very few people know them or their party. You have to realize that the fundamental considerations  of party identification  and presidential approval are much stronger determinants of vote choice than anything else.  Even when Gani fawehinmi, arguably the most famous Lawyer in Nigeria, ran, he could not win his polling booth. He lost to OBJ in Ondo his hometown. Heck, he even lost to him at his Alagbado office polling station. Was it because he was rigged out? I doubt it.  And it was well believed that if Gani had run on the PDP platorm, even without rigging, he would have won by a moon-slide.

Again people dont vote for the best candidate, they vote for someone they can easily connect with and who has the best odds of winning. The other 17 candidates you are talking about barely campaigned outside of their street. Okotie did not campaign in his hometown, why should they vote for him, I make bold to say that 99% of voters in Delta do not know that Okotie was running. Same goes to the high falutin head of the  Lagos Business School, Utomi. How can the ordinary Deltan connect with such a person who speaks in language me sef barely understand. Again, I dont find the numbers absurd for any reason

a) There were 15 Other candidates on the same ballot . . . a fear of Buhari does not justify the numbers that were produced.

b) At least 5 of the candidates were from right in the same SS/SE region. That they did not even make 500 votes from their own 'ama'/village/community leaves me wondering even more what happened

c) Please stop mentioning best or worst candidate as these numbers have nothing to do with such. Please throw that away from this.

d) You would have to do better than claim that ALL the other candidates did not campaign outside of their home towns. Even a campaign in my own village will ensure me at least 500 votes. Many of them barely made 100 votes

e) And your statement on Utomi . . . WOW!

well 8 yrs the party did nothing now we elect them again.in uk brown did not lose because cameron was a messiah or obama in the us.they won because people were fed up of the direction those parties were taken.
look at the uk,labour has gone back to the drawing board to see where they went wrong as did cons when major lost.
here we have an awful party that lead the country badly for 8 yrs and we want more.
i would have thought the niger delta would have voted .
was the election rigged ?for sure by all parties just that GEJ and pdp have the national reserves at their desposal to rig it even more is all.
sadly nigeria can never have the liver of countries like egypt to say enough is enough to this bogus leaders and their ways and as such will remain a poor country no matter what resources they have which is basically oil and thats it,once that dries out we become a nation of nothing and no one will care neither.

Kilode?!:

Jonathan will be smart to align with them and get this country restructured, supporters such as Beaf believe he would, but with the pro-establishment haws around him, I'm not sure he can.

^No problem. Some of us hope such an alignment will be realized. But it will be good if we all acquaint ourselves with the history of some other parts of the country too. Just as the SW were resisting the NPC in the 60s, so were parts of the MB in the same period. The narrative that it was only the SW is not quite true in the light of history.

i say here too that major parties in the east all voted PDP.
APGA,PPA all voted PDP.
am not saying there weren't irregularities but am just sighting this would have made it easy with no one to challenge it.
you need to get to these regions and note that Nigeria has a lot of work to do.
when people come out to vote and dont even know why they are voting.
old people as old as 80.i was in a village square and it was just evident they had all been told what to do.
just go there and press umbrella,
anyone going to win and do something intelligent in Nigeria has to always realise that illiterates make up the bulk of nigeria.
and if you dont get to rural areas to really sanitise them,its going to be same all the way,

Well said, KoboJ.

aletheia:

^No problem. Some of us hope such an alignment will be realized. But it will be good if we all acquaint ourselves with the history of some other parts of the country too. Just as the SW were resisting the NPC in the 60s, so were parts of the MB in the same period. The narrative that it was only the SW is not quite true in the light of history.

Ok bro. I'm glad we now understand each other. Yes I remember Tarka and the UMBC and also the Other Northern minorities like Waziri and his GNPP. We really messed up in this country and yes I blame Military rule and greed. But we all need to face realities and try one more time to weaken the center.

You can Imagine the kind of possibilities thrown up by this election, a dis united North just like GNPP and UMBC plus a separate But ready-to-right-wrongs South. I will not forgive Jonathan if he starts trying to bring everyone Back to chop at the center through silly pacification. But I think he will.

Nice discussing with ya, got to go rest.

What about reports of wide spread under-age voting in the North?

Interesting

switch47:

What about reports of wide spread under-age voting in the North?

Underage kids have needs too, there is nothing wrong with underage voting!

switch47:

What about reports of wide spread under-age voting in the North?

Personally, I'm no more for under-age voting than I am for printing out fake votes to get to 85% voter turnout. Neither is good for a democracy.

The Southeast and Southsouth figures are just comical. I dey laugh!

funny picture.

even fish, trees and chickens can vote as well.

any graphics for that?

lol.

Look, let me tell you about the south south. i will use rivers state as an example.

All public office holders in rivers state are PDP. not even 1 official from and opposition party
i many communities, PDP is now part of the culture. Even if they dont know the candidate, they just vote PDP.
it is almost impossible right now to beat PDP in rivers state unless the Governor messes up, and he is doing great.

for Bayelsa state, After the indegenes, its the ibo's that have the highest population, and they all support GEJ.

If you have not been to the south south you will not understand how seriously they took the elections. everybody came out to vote.

A mentality is that if they dont vote jonathan will lose beacuase the North wont vote GEJ.

If there is opposition in your area, please Not that it was PDP all the way for the people of the south south.

Gosh!! Finally the eyo ita saga has been buried,nigeria is weeping because the barrier they created between SS/SE has been broken,no longer wil they be able to deceive our SS brothers with the false story of how ndiigbo is out to dominate them,no mater how far false travels,truth wil always overtake it,who would have thought that the right leadership ndiigbo have been craving for lies in SS(Anioma),ohaneze is now better positioned to serve our interest,thanks to uwaechue leadership, ndiigbo are once again speaking with one voice again since 1967.

SS/SE unity is a union which has the potential of disintegrating Nigeria,one which Nigeria dreads,and worked against for 44yrs using false propaganda,now that the inevitable has happened,let the show begin.

switch47:

What about reports of wide spread under-age voting in the North?

Let me attempt to help you there. Comparing underage voting, which is allowed by the way by non other than INEC(Since these people were LEGALLY ISSUED VOTER'S CARDS), to rigging, is pretending not to understand what constitutes illegality and what does not. The underage votes issues was created by non other than INEC -- no single candidate is responsible for underage voters that choose or do not choose to vote for 'em. Even INEC officials have on TV been recorded as saying it is the unfortunate result to THEIR OWN miscalculation, and they will work to correct it in future.

That said, when a person presents a VALID voter's ID, even if underage, if he is not stopped by some INEC official, he is LEGALLY counted. RIGGING on the other hand implies voting WITHOUT VALID registration for each vote cast. That is ILLEGAL and what YOU as a voter ought to focus more on calling out. Let INEC deal with the issue of underage voting --- blaming it on any single party is pretending to be ignorant of the situation that created and allowed it knowing the Nigerian mindset to begin with.

A well deserved bump.

^ I agree.

For those unwilling to slog through an entire 6 page thread, just read this post:

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-648868.64.html#msg8151346

Look at the spreadsheet in Google docs, and read some of the posts that follow.

ekt_bear u forget to factor in the absentees ballots.

you will accept that those that voted wud probably be those with strong conviction of their candidate, the 90ish% are a mere 60 - 45 % of registered voted in some cases.

moreover most easterners see Buhari as good as most Hausa northerner see say, Ojukwu. Tell me, how many hausas do u think wud vote Ojukwu in an election ?

also SE/SS is a lot homogenous with their indigenes .

1) Why did Ebonyi behave differently, turnout-wise? Why 80%+ in certain SE states, only 47%ish in Ebonyi?

2) There are no absentee ballots in naija elections.

3) Rivers I know for a fact is not that homogeneous, due to PHC.

Because Ebonyi is very rural and laid back, how many people there wud care abt voting in a presidential election that they wud probably think wudnt hv an immediate effect in their life ?

even in the exposed Lagos wat was the % turnout?

So according to you:
83.56% turnout in Imo = "strong conviction"
47.87% in Ebonyi = "rural, laid back, no immediate effect on their life"?
31.84% in Lagos = "exposed, urban, but. . . "

Do you not see the implausibility here, even just looking at the #s alone? Why didn't this "strong conviction" effect also occur in Ebonyi to cause large turnout?

I won't even go into how the reportedly low turnout reported on the ground contradicts the high turnout as indicated by voters, that is a pretty clear sign of rigging too. The inconsistencies within the zone should be enough to make one wonder. . .

People need to understand that the turn out percentages is quite plausible. This can also be seen in the United States where 95% of the black vote for President Obama.

Since people are using Ebonyi example, let me ask you why Ebonyi didn't have record turn out even though PDP is in control of the state. It shows that there were no rigging.

ekt_bear:

For those unwilling to slog through an entire 6 page thread, just read this post:

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-648868.64.html#msg8151346

Look at the spreadsheet in Google docs, and read some of the posts that follow.

The election is a farce eku_bear, it has been a farce since 1999, maybe 1983. Some people are happy now because their man and region won. Hopefully we will be alive to see a reversal of fortunes when the same system disfavors them again in a few years.

Now to your Spreadsheet: I still have little to no issues with the SE, SS, numbers although they are funny numbers, but I will just say it will be near impossible for Buhari to get more than 10% in those states, PDP won the Tribal and Religious sentiment war in the South + The cash war.

I can bet most of those local polling booths in those areas had no CPC agent, if they did, they were non-committed, easily induced ones who will sign off anything just to go back home.

On the Northern Numbers: they look like nonsense and the violence of  today has casted further doubt on those improbable numbers.  Now, states with large Christian majorities in the NC and NE might be close, I doubt they were that close.

I doubt GEJ would have won any of them without central support and large bribes for his PDP agents and local governors.

See bro, This is a flawed system. The man at the center controls the police and he influences the appointment of INEC officials, from Jega to the local RECs and returning officers. Jega can only do so much.

I have a lot of blame for the opposition too, because they should have attacked the fundamentals since the election of four years ago and refuse to contest until they get changes. It is their responsibility to sensitise their supporters and educate them on that. I know other charlatans might take advantage of the space and form dubious political parties to run against PDP, but they shoud have tried.

Anyway now that CPC will probably win the rest of the core Northern Governorship Election due to the Popular uprising on their behalf, maybe they will act like ACN now. I''ll wait to see what happens.

If you allow the system to stay it will swallow you. And it swallowed the opposition. . .


These are some of the reasons for those numbers:

A president that can appoint and fire the police.

He can propose the INEC chairman and bribe his PDP senators to pick him(they have overwhelming majority)

He can bribe RECs easily because he has access to Federal funds, and is above judicial scrutiny.

He controls the Public Media(NTA, Radio Nigeria)

His State agents and PDP Governor control state media and there is nothing you can do about it-imagine California Governor blocking Republican adverts on TV?   <<-- happens in Naija easily

He can spend himself unconscious and make promises of $200M to Nollywood stars, with no recourse to legislative oversight because there is no opposition to PDP in the legislature.

He has the SSS and can flout court orders or re-arrest opponents just freed on bail. (Akwa Ibom?)

C'mon! The opposition stands no chance, until the people rise up, we should all probably just join PDP. I hope people now appreciate Tinubu and his ACN struggles a bit.

Until we restructure this country and remove the massive power in the center, we will keep repeating this nonsense. More people will keep dying needlessly.

Have you updated the Sheet to include the final INEC results?

Kilode?!:

Have you updated the Sheet to include the final INEC results?

I will do that now. (there were a few states not completed when I filled it out.)

Everything here now: https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=t9noetUMsSmQOtcoi8LF7Xw&authkey=CKfYx4YG&hl=en#gid=0

So much research into numbers that can earn one a phd in Statistics. They are just conjectures and more conjectures. You can always spin the psychology of numbers to arrive at any thing you want. WE NEED PROOFS AND HARD EVIDENCE NOT CONJECTURES. Fanning the embers of these conjectures is unwittingly or wittingly fanning the embers of the violence in the North. Even Buhari and his cohorts are not qaurelling with the SS/SE figures but are only contesting the figures in the North simply because you do not reap where you did not sow. The SS/ SE have seen Buhari as minister, head of state, PTF chairman, Shariarist and have always received the short end of his stick. And he, AC and ANPP the 3 strongest parties beside PDP made terrible mistakes of not even considerting those zones for a running mate at least in an attempt to split Jonathan's vote or rock his base. So what do you expect? And for those mentioning other SS/ SE candidates on the ballot should realize that those names were unknown qauntities just like the SW names performed woefully in the SW and other Northern names did likewise in the North.
This was my post in feb:



  Re: CPC Meets On Buhari’s Choice Of Bakare Monday
« #18 on: February 08, 2011, 06:18 AM »   

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I am not personally concerned who Buhari chooses as his running mate since I am certain that he is going nowhere but the issues raised here  in the report are valid.  If Buhari actually was a good strategist he should have known that if he by any means becomes the president, his successor must be from the SE or SS, the two zones that have not substantially gotten their own share of power. So what is really strategic in making a Yoruba his running mate since him being succeeded by such will be highly resisted by other Gzones? If however he really believed a combo with the SW was essential in winning the election, Should he not have picked a yoruba that could actually deliver yoruba votes to him. I really wonder at Buhari's reasons for picking Pastor TB.
https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=599791.msg7688155#msg7688155[b]


And what I wrote about Jonathan's chances In Igboland as far back as oct 2010





I have no doubt in my mind that GEJ will sweep Igbo votes. It is only some Igbo elite, politicians and generally the older generation that associate GEJ with bitter past experiences of Ijaw subterfuge personified in Clark and hasty verdicts of inept performance. The youths and the common man on the street in Igboland will root for Ebele Azikiwe more than a certain Ribadu or Babangida ,etc. Igbo votes are Jonathan's to lose. Granted votes will be shared in each zone by all candidates but I am talking of the majority votes. GEJ is gradually developing in political sagacity and politese ( If there is any word like that) and will only lose Igbo votes if he commits very serious blunders against Ndigbo in this run up to the polls. His body language so far despite his few missteps does not show one with the disposition of committing an october faux pa ( as the Americans will say ) against Ndigbo. His youth, electronic and other 21st cy approaches to politics and governance portray him as being intellectually savvy lending him to easy kinship with the youths and young at heart and also his story of grass to grace when linked to his name adds an element of sentimentality and myth slightly comparable to the Obama myth that draws sympathy and goodwill from the neutral, unencumbered, uncensored, uninitiated and unprejudiced. If these positive capitals can be cashed at the polls barring voter apathy especially among the youths, the windfall will purchase a shocking electoral landslide in Igboland and beyond, assuming that franchise is upheld to the letter. This endorsement if true will add to that momentum.

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=532968.msg6956170#msg6956170[/b]

Try and figure or bring proofs instead of beating these statistics to death else as I once told you before give others the benefit of doubt ,

Now let me get it clear. What exactly is the problem because frankly these Buhari fan boys and girls seem to be a little bit confused.

Is the problem with the number of votes GEJ got in the North?
Is it the number of votes he got in the SS?
Is it the number of votes he got in the SE?
Is it the number of votes he got in the SW?
Is it that numbers declared at the collation centers don't match their expected total as obtained from PUs?
Is it that online polls at nairaland don't match what happened in the elections?

I've heard all sorts of excuses today.

@ekt_bear

Your problem seems to be with the numbers from the SS and SE. Your entire premise seems to be based on ethnic divisions. Well several points have been argued to death about this. Remember the PDP primaries?

Let me ask you a simple question.

Why did Obama get 95% of the black vote but, McCain got only 55% of the white vote?

Note: Answer can be found in party affiliation.

80%+ voter turnout is simply not credible. It didn't happen in Ebonyi (and the official #s reflect this), and it did not happen in Imo (though the official #s say something different, 83.56%).

Anyway, Buhari has challenged the results. Sooner or later we will know how many fake votes were created in Imo, Rivers, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, etc.

ekt_bear:

80%+ voter turnout is simply not credible.

^Oh, but it is. If the South Sudanese could muster above 90% voter turnout in their referendum, is it the SS/SE that has suffered so much in Nigeria and been shut out from power that will not turn out en masse for a candidate that is their own. You may see this as just a mere election, but the average Igbo and SS sees it as more of a referendum. As someone said; they took this election personal. Interestingly, the elections mirror almost exactly the primaries in January.