The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) says it is less likely for President Muhammadu Buhari to be defeated in the 2019 election.

The organaisation said this in a report it released on the forthcoming general election.

USIP said the report is based on its interactions with Nigerians from different sectors.

The report, which analysed the chances of violence marring the elections, is contrary to two recent predictions by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research unit of The Economist Magazine, that the incumbent government will be unseated next year.

USIP said though many Nigerians feel that the current administration has not met their expectations, this is not likely to cost the All Progressives Congress (APC) government its hold on power.

“Many Nigerians feel their hopes have not been met. Some respondents suggest the electorate is sufficiently disappointed that voter apathy will be greater in 2019 than in 2015, with the unifying narrative of change that helped elect the APC in 2015 much less compelling as a factor in mobilizing the electorate, and perceptions that another defeat of the presidential incumbent is less likely to happen in 2019,” the report read.

Comparing the 2015 elections to the forthcoming one, the report said there is a greater chance of the occurrence of election violence, listing Adamawa, Anambra, Ekiti, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Plateau, Rivers as the eight of 36 states with greater risks of election violence.

While it stated that it is up to the combined efforts of political parties, security agencies and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to curb violence in the election, it said the greater work lies with the electoral body.

“Important shifts in Nigeria’s political and security context have occurred since the 2015 elections, presenting both evolving, and new, risks to the 2019 elections,” it read.

“Of all the state’s institutions, most respondents felt that peaceful elections in 2019 are contingent on the performance of Nigeria’s INEC.

“Given the relative success of the 2015 elections, they felt that INEC ought to be able to deliver credible elections again in 2019. They feared, however, that any regression from the level of performance achieved in 2015 could lead to violence because some would view the failings not as a result of incompetence but as deliberate attempts to frustrate the will of the voters.

“INEC should at least match the standards it set in 2015, and any regression could set the stage for violence.”

The report further said despite the projections of violence, “there are signs of hope”.

“Yet, while the potential for election violence exists, there are signs of hope. Some states have developed successful election conflict-mitigation practices. In the short amount of time remaining, INEC and the police should undertake a number of key reforms,” it said.

“ The United States, along with other international supporters of the electoral process, should also intensify their efforts to reinforce the work of these key Nigerian institutions.

“Beyond institutional support, rather than apply a conventional approach to electoral violence mitigation, donor programming should adapt to Nigeria’s current context, political shifts, and opportunities, and be sufficiently flexible to respond to the risks distinct in each of Nigeria’s states.

“In advance of the election, international diplomatic efforts to preempt electoral violence need to be intensified. Regional and international actors should convey their expectations that political parties effectively address their internal disputes, and be ready to put on notice politicians responsible for escalating these disputes.”


https://www.thecable.ng/its-less-likely-for-buhari-to-be-defeated-in-2019-says-us-institute

Ghen Ghen.....

Download full report using the link below

https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2018-09/sr_429_verjee_et_al_final.pdf

Very true as sensible Nigerians know that PMB will be return elected come 2019!
But as usual the vocal minority (PDP supporters) will have their say while the effective Majority (Buharists) will have their way come 2019.


"Experience teaches us that it is much easier to prevent an enemy from posting themselves than it is to dislodge them after they have got possession."- George Washington (#Wailers Copy)

It is less likely...meaning the old man will do EVERYTHING to remain in power, including rigging!

Make some people no commit suicide o.


Me I just know that by February ending, "Atikulated Obi" crew would have morphed into "Biafra or Death"

I told them (these emotional Atiku/Obi supporters) the EXACT SAME thing but they rained insults on me their fadas. So now that its coming from American intelligence maybe they will listen.

Quote.
USIP said the report is based on its interactions with Nigerians from different sectors.
Unquote.



It is CONFIRM FEBuhari 2019!

Carry go Sai Baba!

TRUE TALK.

Yes, we are with younow and forevermore daddy.

Carry us dey go the promise land flowing with milk and honey

Na so e go be.....

Insha Allah........

A Very Bad Week For The Atikulooters IPOB Pigs..


Going Back To Biafra Or Death Next Year Is A Sure Banker.


Meanwhile, Atiku Right Now!

This is just the reality... I laugh at many online ranters, anyone good at political analysis can read the lines but many won't like to hear the truth.
N: B. I'm not in support of Buhari but we have a failed democratic system already.

The masses are to speak not this international organization though I think Buhari still get upper hand against all other candidates irrespective of all odds

sai baba

Those of us who know, know this already. Atiku can sponsor as many articles as he wants in The Economist.
Good analysis has shown that 2019 is already won and lost.

While smart people are analysing real electoral data, others think it's by hijacking Nairaland frontpage in their tens as they've done in recent weeks, screaming Atikulate and Obimycin all over the place. When they lose as expected, they'll start screaming rigging or "zoo must fall".

Nigerians across all zones will generally say no to thieves who put us in economic quagmire.
Sai Baba till 2023.

We'll start electing the best leaders we deserve by 2023.

For now, we say no to thieves who convert public assets to private, or steal from the treasury and build business empires and turn around claiming to be "employers of labour".

Sai Baba till 2023 and beyond.......

CilicMarin:
A Very Bad Week For The Atikulooters Pigs..


Death Next Year Is A Sure Banker.


Meanwhile, Atiku Right Now!

Hahahaha ......and Saraki right now.....
Buhari winning again? Say whaaat??!!

Hmmm

hisexcellency34:
It is less likely...meaning the old man will do EVERYTHING to remain in power, including rigging!

Wailers will forever wail, and there is nothing we can do about it........FORTUNATELY!

We have been telling them but they won't listen

Ha

click like if you think they are saying Nonsense, otherwise click share.

FisifunKododada:
I told them the EXACT SAME thing but they rained insults on me. So

This your moniker get ehn

[quote author=DoTheNeedful post=72677083]Make some people no commit suicide hmmm

wailers, ipobians and red mudders, where una dey

There's only one way to find out.
My people don't assume you have one single vote out of millions...
You're the determinant...
Post like this are being sponsored to make us feel relax and sit back....
Shey na US dey do the Jail time (Buhari regime)

I guess the Institute predicted Hilary Clinton to win Donald Trump. Today, how market My point is: anything can happen.

They will still be the ones to call him lifeless.
Us stay away from our elections.

Like seriously? Lol, very funny