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Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 2:17pm On Oct 28
designking:


How will this affect FBNH share price?
I think this does not add up cause FBN AGM notice says they are looking for N350b not N150b. Aside, the RI price should be known after the AGM.
I stand to be corrected.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 6:44am On Oct 19
designking:
FBNH Appoints Adebowale Oyedeji as New GMD

FBN Holdings Plc, has announced the appointment of Adebowale (Wale) Oyedeji as the new Group Managing Director (GMD), effective November 13, 2024. This pivotal appointment is subject to the approval of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and will require ratification by the shareholders during the upcoming Annual General Meeting.


AGM coming up possibly on 14th November 2024.
Dividend Payment possibly on 15th November 2024.
Resolutions about Recapitalisation and Name change from FBNHoldings to First HoldCo

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42355_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC-_NOTICES_OF_ANNUAL_GENERAL_MEETING_(AGM)_-__ANNUAL_GENERAL_MEETING_(AGM)_OCTOBER_2024.pdf

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 3:23pm On Oct 14
GeeKudi:


It's all a mess. Those who hold the units do not have access to them yet to be able to let go.
Likewise, I am yet to access my ARADEL shares.
Please, what can be done to resolve this?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 5:53pm On Oct 06
Sunrisepebble:
1k is not possible sadly because there are only 4 more tradings day on NASD till NGX listing (trading will halt Oct9 and t+3 inclusive of the weekend to list on the 14th), so assuming another 9% plus performance on each day we can see a listing price of ~800. I honestly expect to see some resistance perhaps next week though. #800 is essentially 16k. Those that got in around 4k have 4xed. Won’t be a bad idea for them to take profit
Please, will there be trading on 9th before the halt or there will be no trade at all on the 9th?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 7:16pm On Sep 28
megawealth01:
Otedola’s Strategic Acquisition: Implications for FBN Holdings and its Shareholders

In a notable move that underscores both confidence and strategic foresight, the business mugal and billionaire Mr Femi Otedola, the Chairman of FBN Holdings, has significantly bolstered his position in the venerable institution with the acquisition of an additional 534 million shares at an impressive price of N30 per share. This substantial transaction elevates his direct shareholding to an unprecedented total of 4.23 billion shares, valued at approximately N124.9 billion. With this acquisition, Otedola now holds a commanding 11.79% stake in the bank, cementing his status as the single largest direct unit holder in the longest-standing bank in Nigeria.

Otedola is a prominent figure in Nigeria’s business landscape, known for his acumen in financial management and strategic investments. His actions as chairman are pivotal not just for FBN Holdings but also for the broader banking sector in Nigeria. Otedola’s significant investment not only demonstrates his strong belief in the bank’s potential for growth but also positions him as a key player in the bank’s strategic direction. Otedola's direct involvement at the helm of one of Nigeria's oldest banks is indicative of his commitment to rejuvenating and steering the institution towards a prosperous future.

In light of this, he's strategy investment in the bank potent a well positioned implications for FBN Holdings. Let considered a few of them:

Otedola’s increased shareholding imbues FBN Holdings with a strong element of stability and governance. Shareholders typically look favourably upon substantial insider ownership as it correlates with a vested interest in the bank’s success. As a pivotal player in the organisation, Otedola has strategic insights and robust governance that align with the aspirations of shareholders seeking sustainable growth.

The acquisition is likely to instil greater confidence among investors and stakeholders regarding the future of FBN Holdings. It signals a clear message: the chairman believes in the bank’s growth trajectory, which encourage other investors to consider entering or increasing their stakes in light of this endorsement. This confidence is crucial, especially in a volatile economic environment where investor sentiment greatly impacts market performance.

As the largest direct shareholder, Otedola’s influence on the strategic decisions of FBN Holdings pave the way for more innovative approaches to tackle emerging market challenges. His leadership may lead to initiatives aimed at diversifying the bank's offerings, potentially enhancing its competitive edge in the financial sector. Moreover, with Otedola’s extensive network and experience across various industries, FBN Holdings could explore new avenues of partnership and investment, broadening its market reach.

Again, with Otedola at the helm, shareholders can anticipate a renewed focus on maximising shareholder value. His approach to acquisitions, strategic investments, and capital allocation are likely to prioritise generating returns for both current and prospective shareholders. This focus on shareholder welfare not only reassures existing investors but also attracts new ones, leading to enhanced liquidity and market capitalisation.

Moreso, the Nigerian banking sector is replete with challenges, including regulatory changes, economic fluctuations, and increased competition from fintech. Otedola’s strategic direction may see FBN Holdings prioritise innovative solutions to these challenges, leveraging technology and enhancing customer experience. Ultimately, this approach could result in improved financial performance, benefiting shareholders in the long run.

While in an environment where volatility is commonplace, the strategic decisions made by Otedola—as the largest single shareholder—help stabilise FBN Holdings. By adopting prudent risk management practices and sustainable business models, where the bank is able to navigate economic uncertainties, ensuring resilience and steady growth, which are essential for shareholder confidence.

As Otedola consolidates his control and embarks on a journey to redefine the bank’s place in Nigeria’s financial landscape, shareholders can look forward to a trajectory marked by confidence, innovation, and enhanced value. Under his leadership, FBN Holdings could emerge as not only a leader in banking but as a beacon of economic stability in Nigeria’s evolving market.

OBA OTUDEKO should focus on how to get back HONEYWELL and drive it back to the days of sub #100

Not a financial advice at all as I am known for heavy risks since 2020 and still counting

Both need that controlling power in the bank. They know the huge benefit that will give them especially in running their businesses (e.g Geregu and Honeywell respectively). I guess none of them will be willing to hands off just like that.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 7:10pm On Sep 28
Divineability:
Aradel stock split effected. Just checked my holdings on Coronation Registrars website.

Probably the trading will commence again on Monday 30th September.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 12:06pm On Sep 24
Any update on ARADEL as regards the resumption of trading?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 7:48pm On Sep 22
bovali:

Valuation of Access Bank’s Stock: A Comprehensive Analysis Using 10 Methods

In this post, I analyze the potential stock price of Access Bank, a major player in Nigeria’s banking industry, using 10 different valuation methods. For each method, I present a worst, base, and best-case scenario. This approach provides a well-rounded view of the stock’s valuation under various market conditions.

1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio compares the current share price to the company’s earnings per share (EPS). With an EPS of ₦7.61, I applied three different P/E multiples to arrive at potential price ranges.

• Worst Case (P/E = 4x): ₦30.44
• Base Case (P/E = 8x): ₦60.88
• Best Case (P/E = 12x): ₦91.32

2. Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio

This method values the stock based on the net asset value of the company. It provides insights into how the market values the bank’s equity in relation to its actual assets.

• Worst Case (P/B = 0.8x): ₦63.86
• Base Case (P/B = 1.2x): ₦95.79
• Best Case (P/B = 1.6x): ₦127.72

3. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model

The DCF model estimates the present value of the company’s future cash flows. This is one of the most comprehensive methods, often used for long-term valuations.

• Worst Case: ₦28.00
• Base Case: ₦65.00
• Best Case: ₦105.00

4. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a stock based on the present value of future dividend payments. This method is particularly useful for dividend-paying companies like Access Bank.

• Worst Case: ₦22.00
• Base Case: ₦50.00
• Best Case: ₦75.00

5. Asset-Based Valuation

In this method, I assess the value of the stock based on the company’s net assets (assets minus liabilities). This provides a conservative view of the stock price.

• Worst Case: ₦35.00
• Base Case: ₦60.00
• Best Case: ₦80.00

6. Earnings Growth Model

This approach forecasts the company’s future earnings and applies a multiple based on growth expectations.

• Worst Case: ₦25.00
• Base Case: ₦55.00
• Best Case: ₦85.00

7. Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio

The P/S ratio compares the stock price to the company’s revenue per share. It’s useful when earnings are volatile or when valuing early-stage companies.

• Worst Case: ₦12.94
• Base Case: ₦32.34
• Best Case: ₦51.74

8. Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)

This method looks at the company’s enterprise value relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

• Worst Case: ₦30.00
• Base Case: ₦65.00
• Best Case: ₦100.00

9. Relative Valuation (Comparables)

Relative valuation compares Access Bank’s valuation multiples (like P/E and P/B) to its peers in the Nigerian banking sector. This method provides context by assessing how Access Bank compares to competitors.

• Worst Case: ₦27.00
• Base Case: ₦58.00
• Best Case: ₦90.00

10. Economic Value Added (EVA)

EVA measures the company’s ability to generate returns above its cost of capital. This is a good indicator of the company’s profitability and long-term value creation.

• Worst Case: ₦32.00
• Base Case: ₦55.00
• Best Case: ₦90.00

Summary:

To provide a concise summary, I calculate the average share price across the 10 valuation methods for the worst, base, and best-case scenarios:

• Worst Case Average: ₦30.73
• Base Case Average: ₦59.90
• Best Case Average: ₦88.88

The current stock price of Access Holdings PLC (ACCESSCORP) as of September 20, 2024, is ₦19.00 per share, following a 3.06% decline from the previous day. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from a low of ₦15.45 (September 28, 2023) to a high of ₦30.70 (January 18, 2024). This price trend reflects some volatility, with the stock trading closer to the lower end of its annual range recently. I expect another low to high cycle this September to January period again.

Given this context, the stock is currently trading well below the upper bounds projected in the best-case valuation but aligns more closely with some of the base-case valuations derived from the methods I used earlier. This highlights that the stock might have more growth potential if conditions improve, but it is still trading near recent lows.
Not financial advice. DYOR
Please @BOVALI can you help do this for FBNH & UBA?

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 3:36pm On Sep 10
sky2891:

Re-capitalizing the FBNQuest Merchant Bank with N50bn may not be the best considering the less than 5% profit made from the merchant bank.
They need to focus on the FirstBank recapitalization whilst making huge profit from the sales of the Merchant Bank.
This is just my opinion.
I also believe it is a good move.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC_-_CLARIFICATION_ON_DIVESTMENT_FROM_FBNQUEST_MERCHANT_BANK.pdf
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 11:12am On Sep 09
chimex38:

Hmmm.. Good question.
I don't think so, since it may just go into their books as Retained Earnings which is not also allowed by CBN.

maybe use proceeds to increase dividend payout ratio to entice the Public grin.
Just speculating Oo grin

Wonder why the sale n timing?
Re-capitalizing the FBNQuest Merchant Bank with N50bn may not be the best considering the less than 5% profit made from the merchant bank.
They need to focus on the FirstBank recapitalization whilst making huge profit from the sales of the Merchant Bank.
This is just my opinion.
I also believe it is a good move.

3 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 9:46am On Sep 09
chimex38:

For them to go as far as 100% sale, I believe no other reason than to meet Capitalization requirements for FBN

Change of name soon for the acquired entity..

Does CBN directives/rules on recapitalisation support the use of such proceeds for recapitalisation?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 7:18am On Sep 07
chimex38:

For them to go as far as 100% sale, I believe no other reason than to meet Capitalization requirements for FBN

Change of name soon for the acquired entity..
Does this +vely or -vely affect FBNH?
I hope we find out how much the deal is worth.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 9:10pm On Sep 06
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 5:06pm On Sep 06
currentprice:


not a banking stock bro, it one of the popular stock that got battered during those bear period, though like any other stock, price up more than times 3 since then but doing fine fundamentally and the TA indicting preparation to fly grin

do ur home work small as ur DD

grin grin grin grin
Do you mean UACN?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 6:36am On Sep 05
currentprice:
still waiting sideline with my oga Agba observing......

NSEindex will still shed weight unless it move back above 100k lipsrsealed

some stock will follow NSEindex down , some will resist the shedding.. shocked

some pple are angry with themselves for missing Oando so they are eyeing Nascon/DS "dangotefood" cheesy

Technically, Nascon price already below strong support levels so I expect more downward price but if price could mange move above 40 then this could change story.

DS still trying to move to the strong support at 32/33 levels before deciding further move cheesy H1 numbers not attractive undecided

unlike the DS/Nascon waiting for good news to surprise the mkt, one particular stock may even do better... fundamentally bedsheet look good and TA indicated ready to fly, while am still in waiting it already added some weight since my bedsheet notice it sad....embarassed the stock in the same sector will likely follow this stock to fly as indicated by the chat grin

anyway Q3 around the conner for better clarity

Note; still sitting on cash, patiently waiting sideline with my oga Agba watching as one/two stock trader no day rush

grin grin grin grin grin grin


Please is the stock in the banking sector?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 12:11pm On Aug 22
megawealth01:
Shareholders Worry As Ownership Tussle, Fraud Rocks First Bank

https://politicsnigeria.com/shareholders-worry-as-ownership-tussle-fraud-rock-first-bank-share-price-plummets/
Silent mopping of shares by the involved stakeholders in the ownership tussle may eventually translate to reduced number of shares available for trading.

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 1:56pm On Aug 13
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 9:23pm On Aug 02
talk2me2:
do your own calculation approximately 37kobo
H1 EPS of 37k is still impressive even at that.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 6:54pm On Aug 01
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 9:44pm On Jul 31
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 8:52pm On Jul 30
sky2891:
FBNH Board Meeting coming up tomorrow 31st July 2024.
Hopefully, result may likely surpass expectations.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/41918_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2024.pdf
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 4:15pm On Jul 30
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/41885_VERITAS_KAPITAL_ASSURANCE_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2024.pdf

H1 EPS lower than Q1 EPS.
Net expenses from reinsurance contracts of N4.7b.
I guess the result is still not bad compared to H1 2023.
OGG please, can you help shed light on Veritas result?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 1:44pm On Jul 30
FBNH Board Meeting coming up tomorrow 31st July 2024.
Hopefully, result may likely surpass expectations.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 1:30pm On Jul 30
onegentleguy:


Fantastic financial print from PRESTIGE ASSURANCE!
"Maybe we could ride the veritas way here". cheesy cool

CAVEAT: NOT an investment advice. ...due diligence still applies as always.

#volsupportive
#momentumbuildup

It is well
I guess the insurance companies are having a field day.
I noticed that Veritas Board meeting is coming up on 2nd August 2024 and with the volume witnessed recently, I also guess the party is not over with Veritas.
Please, what do you think?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 11:05am On Jul 30
Choiceguy:


Village people is after my me.
Pastor Agba, what is going on Oando.bullbearmk is the man that deprived me this opportunity because of the wrong court date he posted.i was waiting to re-enter Oando later.the rest is history.
Another opportunity always comes.

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 12:47pm On Jul 29
UBA
FBNH
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 7:55am On Jul 29
Heishere:


Will it be a good buy at current price of 9.35 given the bonus?
I can't find the bonus issuance on NGX website.
Please where can I find it?
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 11:38am On Jul 25
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 5:33pm On Jul 24
Mankind2024:
Warning signs for the banking sector.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has raised the interest rate from 26.25% to 26.75%, a move that may have far-reaching implications. Furthermore, the Senate has increased taxation on forex gains from 50% to 70%, a decision that could spell trouble for the banking sector.
Red days may indeed lie ahead for banks, as these changes could lead to increased borrowing costs, reduced lending, and decreased profitability. The sector is bracing itself for a challenging period ahead.
The Ichimoku strategy of Agbalowomeri is knocking strongly.
I think Net Revenue From Funds (NRFF) should increase for banks with good deposit base.
Banks always find their way.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 4:24pm On Jul 24
Some must have seen Zenith Bank Result already.
I guess it will be a good one considering the volume traded today

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/41736_ZENITH_BANK_PLC-ZENITH_BANK_PLC_ANNOUNCEMENT_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JULY_2024.pdf
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 2:37pm On Jul 23
thebargainhunte:
Any update about MPR?

• The benchmark interest rate (MPR) was raised by 50bps to 26.75%.
• The asymmetric corridor was adjusted to +500/-100 bps around the MPR.
• The cash reserve ratio is retained at 45.00%.
• The Liquidity Ratio retained at 30.00%.
The next MPC will be held on September 23 – 24, 2024

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sky2891: 11:19am On Jul 21
Raider76:




When I saw all the laughter you put in your post I thought you were not taking the issue of the mistaken date of Oando hearing you posted seriously enough. I am one of those that noted the date 12 Oct as you posted. Then I saw 10th July on another forum. I posted my above post here asking for clarification. Only Myc responded to me. Because I somehow trust NSEMPA more I didn't take the 10 July seriously. The rest, as they said, is history.
Misinformation from a notable NSEMPA member can be misleading even though he failed to understand that.
Even the laughter makes it look intentional.
Like you rightly said, the rest is history.

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