Yoruba May Determine Who Wins 2015 Presidency

The voting pattern of the Yoruba people of South-West geopolitical zone in the 2015 presidential election may determine who wins and who loses.


In 2011, even though the zone voted the Action Congress of Nigeria in all the elections, they voted more for the Peoples Democratic Party's candidate in the presidential election. That helped in no small way to swing victory for President Goodluck Jonathan.

Many had fingered the ACN leader, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, for that massive vote for Jonathan because of the last-minute discussions he reportedly had with the latter. But that would be saying that the South-West people are sheep that don't have their own mind. Weeks before the 2011 presidential election, even while talks were on between the Congress for Progressive Change and the ACN, many South-West people had made it clear that they would vote for Jonathan for the Presidency, even though they would vote the ACN in all other elections. The appreciable population of other non-Yoruba residents in the South-West also helped to increase the number of votes Jonathan garnered in the zone.

President Jonathan has not stated clearly whether he will contest the 2015 election. But his unspoken words seem to point more to the fact that he will contest than the other way. Even though he completed the remaining term of his former boss, the late President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, after he died in office on May 5, 2010, and won an election in 2011, he is constitutionally qualified to run for office in 2015.

Ethnicity and religion play a great role in Nigerian politics, and they will play a role in the 2015 election. The North, especially the North-East and the North-West zones, has never hidden its sadness and anger over the loss of presidential power as a result of the illness and death of Yar'Adua. The North feels that it was cheated out of power. Some even alleged that the cheating was pre-planned by former President Olusegun Obasanjo with his choice of Yar'Adua, who was known to have a health condition. Supporters of power rotation felt that Jonathan should have completed Yar'Adua's term and allowed a Northerner to contest the presidency, so that the North could complete its eight years just like the South. There was some sense of justice in that viewpoint.

But Jonathan and many of his South-South people and some other Nigerians who opposed power rotation felt that given that the South-South or the entire Niger Delta region, the producer of Nigerian oil wealth, had not produced an elected president in Nigeria, even though the North had produced same many times, he should run for office for the sake of justice and fairness. There was also some sense of justice in that point of view. In addition, many wondered if Jonathan were not to contest for the presidency, would the Northerner that would take over from him do only a term and leave office, since Yar'Adua had done about three years of his four-year tenure?

There are those who believe that the rise in violence of the Boko Haram sect after the 2011 elections had direct links with that feeling of loss and cheating that the North had. Even though Boko Haram started as a religious sect, there is no denying that it has had political influence in recent times. Some people have even said that if Jonathan were to drop his political ambition for 2015, Boko Haram would fizzle out.

Before the run-up to the 2011 elections, Maj.-Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) and his Congress for Progressive Change, the major challenger to President Jonathan and his Peoples Democratic Party then, handled the merger talks with the Action Congress of Nigeria with some presumptuousness. They presumed that Jonathan would not win the election on the first ballot, since the South-South, South-East and some North-Central voters would vote for him, while the North-West (with its perceived high population) and the North-East would vote for Buhari, with the South-West voting for Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the ACN, thereby making the election go into a second ballot. Even though the South-West vote was split between Jonathan and Ribadu, but with more going to Jonathan, that made it easier for him to win on the first ballot. That seemed to have taught Buhari and the CPC a lesson that working with the Yoruba and ACN was not just necessary but critical, if the PDP would ever be beaten. But it is true that the South-West vote did not come from only the Yoruba, given the high population of other-Southerners in the South-West, especially in Lagos.

And so, rather than wait till 2015 to commence merger talks, the CPC, ACN, ANPP and a part of the All Progressive Grand Allaince began early, which is a great plus. And rather than the hard lines that characterised the 2011 merger talks, the talks for the merger are being treated with more respect for each other as well as without any pre-conditions. Anybody who says that the PDP is not rattled by the merger talks of the All Progressives Congress is economical with the truth. The reason the PDP has ruled for 14 unbroken years is because the opposition parties had displayed disunity, pride and greed. Having a united opposition against the PDP is the first step towards thwarting the fulfilment of the prediction of Chief Vincent Ogbulafor in 2008 that the ruling party would rule Nigeria for 60 years!

For the 2015 elections, however, many scenarios exist. First, Jonathan may decide not to run, which is most unlikely. He may present himself for the primaries and lose to another candidate, given that some governors and former President Olusegun Obasanjo are working against his ambition. Even though this scenario will further show our democracy as exemplary, it is also far-fetched, as no Nigerian President has lost his party's primaries.

So, if Jonathan is running in 2015, the APC will be concerned about the team that can beat him. Buhari, Ribadu and Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau - all former presidential candidates of the merging parties - are possible candidates. Even a PDP member - the incumbent Speaker of the House of Representatives, Alhaji Aminu Tambuwal - has been mentioned as a possible candidate of the APC. In the South, there are Governors Babatunde Raji Fashola, Adams Oshiomhole, Rochas Okorocha, Tinubu and Senator Chris Ngige.

The combination that will likely attract the highest number of votes from the North and South-West may be that of Buhari-Fashola or Buhari-Tinubu. If Indeed Tambuwal is an option, combining with these two men from the South-West would also attract votes for the party. But there is a snag in that. The key figures from the North are all Muslims and the two key figures from the South-West are also Muslims. In the South-West, religion does not matter in politics. But in other parts of Nigeria, it does. Presenting a Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2015 will not go down well with the North-Central, South-East, and South-South. Even though it worked in 1993 for the Abiola-Kingibe ticket, it will attract deep suspicion now. In 1993, even though there had been religious crises in Nigeria, there had not been anything on the scale of the current Boko Haram carnage. This is a serious point that the PDP will use - albeit surreptitiously - to campaign against the APC.

There is also the possibility of using an Igbo or South-Southerner as presidential or vice-presidential candidate to blunt the influence of Jonathan in those two regions. But the minus is that the North is so much focused on the Presidency now that any arrangement that does not have a Northerner as the presidential candidate in 2015 may not attract deep interest. A North-Central Christian presidential candidate with a Southern Muslim running mate is also an option. But it is no longer a secret that the one-North stance of the North died around 1975 when Gen. Yakubu Gowon was overthrown. The destiny of the North-Central or Middle Belt, as they are better known, and the rest of the North is not inextricably linked together anymore. The bloodletting in Plateau State since 2001 has worsened the situation. A Middle Belt Christian candidate will not sound to the North-East and North-West - which are most times referred to as the "core North" to further underscore that division - as a candidate that has come to assuage the feeling of cheating that the "core North" suffered by the loss of the presidency due to Yar'Adua's death.

The voting pattern of the South-East, South-South and North-Central may not change much if Jonathan contests in 2015. He may not garner as many votes as he did in 2011, depending on his performance and perception between now and 2015. If he is perceived as "improved" in his performance between now and 2015, his chances will be brighter. But if the APC makes a strategic choice of presidential candidate and running mate, the APC will be a major threat. Whatever happens, whoever the Yoruba vote for en masse may have an advantage. And it is obvious that the PDP and APC are aware of this and are consequently courting the Yoruba.

The Yoruba have another advantage. They are the only group in Nigeria that has been happy being in the opposition. Other ethnic groups usually feel like a fish out of water whenever out of power. So they will take their time to decide on whom to support. Gradually, the Yoruba are moving to the centre of Nigerian politics on their own terms. Even if they fail to rule in 2015 because of the unwritten agreement of rotation of power between the North and the South, they will have a strong hand in determining who occupies Aso Rock come 2015.


http://m.naij.com/news/33334.html

To what purpose is this thread? An opening for tribal bashing? You need to get a life @op

Yea right, with the coming on board of UPN and the ACN selling their birth right (LOL), Yoruba's votes will be splitted and nobody gets a bloc vote but splitted amongst parties.

Lagos is where President Jonathan got significant votes from ibos, other easterners, & middle-belt people living there, and the same pattern will be repeated in 2015. No reasonable political calculation can ever rely on yorubas, who culturally like to say yes & no at the same time, and so keep their options open in order to join the winning side.

andresia: To what purpose is this thread? An opening for tribal bashing? You need to get a life @op

OP is not a tribalistic poster and you need to cool it. Read without bias to note that the article is purely political in analysis.

andresia: To what purpose is this thread? An opening for tribal bashing? You need to get a life @op

If you got nothing to say, just shut the hell up. This is a sensitive topic and only intellectuals are allowed to make comments. now ,run along to the viewer's corner where you have always been and keep quiet!

Very well written and thoughtful article.....

Gbawe:

OP is not a tribalistic poster and you need to cool it. Read without bias to note that the article is purely political in analysis.

Bros thank you o jare! you will live long.

Meanwhile, you contribution and the likes of other Yorubas will be highly appreciated by me.

berem: If you got nothing to say, just shut the hell up. This is a sensitive topic and only intellectuals are allowed to make comments. now ,run along to the viewer's corner where you have always been and keep quiet!

Intellectuals? Western Nigeria done suffer!

OP please Format this Article.

Thank You

Popup Blocker: [size=18pt]Of course

If Yorubas hadnt divided their votes between GEJ/Buhari, giving Buhara 99% of their votes, you think GEJ would have won? LOL Comedy

I doubt SS would vote for a SE presidential campaign like the reciprocal in 2011

And I also doubt more than 20% Yorubas would vote for GEJ in 2015

GEJ has done much for the SS/SE, yet he ignored the SW........ my people need to watch this man and his "dusty air" antics come 2015

Yorubas, make no mistake in 2015. Yoruba ronu. [/size]

Can it really be stated authoritatively that GEJ has "done much for the SS/SE" if we are talking about ordinary folks and not militants, cronies and bootlickers, recipients of political office, fuel subsidy scammers, oil bunkerers and sycophants? As for the SW, and despite the hollow noise of "marginalization" by Yoruba disgruntled PDP element, GEJ has done no worse to the region than OBJ and Yar Adua and sensible Yorubas know not to expect anything of any PDP President wherever he hails from. It really is time we look beyond ethnicity to seek out the sort of President who can take brave and far reaching actions and decisions that will transform Nigeria drastically.

jackbauersballs: OP please Format this Article.

Thank You

Are you insinuating that it contains 'virus'

berem: The Yoruba have another advantage. They are the only group in
Nigeria that has been happy being in the opposition. Other ethnic
groups usually feel like a fish out of water whenever out of
power. So they will take their time to decide on whom to support.
Gradually, the Yoruba are moving to the centre of Nigerian
politics on their own terms. Even if they fail to rule in 2015
because of the unwritten agreement of rotation of power
between the North and the South, they will have a strong hand in
determining who occupies Aso Rock come 2015.


http://m.naij.com/news/33334.html

Agreed 100%

The writer has forgotten that Plateau and Benue States are not the only states in the NC.

I strongly doubt if the SS people will this time around vote massively for Jonathan. His fights with Amaechi surely does not help at all with his 2015 bid.

That said, the power of who wins in the 2015 most definitely lies with the SW depending on who the opposition parties field as a sole candidate for presidency.

This is where the true intellectual political wit of the Yorubas will have to be displayed.

Gbawe:

Can it really be stated authoritatively that GEJ has "done much for the SS/SE" if we are talking about ordinary folks and not militants, cronies and bootlickers, recipients of political office, fuel subsidy scammers, oil bunkerers and sycophants? As for the SW, and despite the hollow noise of "marginalization" by Yoruba disgruntled PDP element, GEJ has done no worse to the region than OBJ and Yar Adua and sensible Yorubas know not to expect anything of any PDP President wherever he hails from. It really is time we look beyond ethnicity to seek out the sort of President who can take brave and far reaching actions and decisions that will transform Nigeria drastically.

So what was all that fresh air bullshid about if he was simply going to revert back to obj's treatment of the SW?

Senseless thread opened by a jobless rat! MODS please put this thread in the trash can!

alexchiny: Senseless thread opened by a jobless rat! MODS please put this thread in the trash can!

alexchiny: Yoruba intellectuals coming together to discuss politics! Wow! Am amazed! Buhahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Bunch of illiterate bigots!

Na who begged you to post twice?

Omo, stop acting basic in public.

Popup Blocker:

Na who begged you to post twice?

Omo, stop acting basic in public.

And you are ......? Monki

From the article above I can say it is right. GEJ might not get good vote from the sw but he is sure to get good vote from we in the ss/se depending on who the Apc present as their presidential candidate.

Popup Blocker:

So what was all that fresh air bullshid about if he was simply going to revert back to obj's treatment of the SW?

The "fresh air" ruse was to deceive the entire nation and not the SW alone. Believe me, I am no fan of GEJ and certainly not seeking to hold brief for him here. My point is that he has been no worse to the SW than OBJ and Yar Adua. GEJ is just a typical PDP President as even defined by the USA. Nonetheless the truth has to be told. GEJ, in my opinion is merely shallow and indifferent to the SW but I am yet to see proof, considering he is not doing much good for the ordinary folks of any region, that he is worse to to the SW than others like OBJ. OBJ was very vindictive and malevolent towards the region. Let us never forget that.

I certainly don't like GEJ as a leader and don't think I ever will but I won't revise history to put him ahead of OBJ in terms of wickedness towards the SW. At least, even if done in the spirit of self-preservation and self-ambition, we can say GEJ contributed to the SW gaining a better crop of leaders now moving the region forward. OBJ , in his supreme malevolence, will never have allowed that.

berem: If you got nothing to say, just shut the hell up. This is a sensitive topic and only intellectuals are allowed to make comments. now ,run along to the viewer's corner where you have always been and keep quiet!

You call yourself an intellectual?
I laugh.
You are being used,and you don't even know.

berem: Bros thank you o jare! you will live long.

Meanwhile, you contribution and the likes of other Yorubas will be highly appreciated by me.

I speak based on the assumption that GEJ will eventually emerge the PDP candidate - a situation I very much doubt will materialise. Personally, for the SW, I think it will boil down to the perception that GEJ has been a disappointment. The SW owe GEJ no automatic ethnic or sectional support and I expect many to view GEJ's 2015 ambition dispassionately in relation to how he has done up to 2015.

GEJ is no longer an unknown entity with plenty of goodwill behind him as was the case in 2011. Generally, and in free and fair election, the SW has a history of poor tolerance for woeful leadership. Unless drastic changes happen, GEJ will certainly get far, far less vote from the SW than he did in 2011. Any APC candidate will be the beneficiary of this lack of goodwill towards GEJ if the APC get their candidates and grass-root mobilisation correct.

Gbawe:

Can it really be stated authoritatively that GEJ has "done much for the SS/SE" if we are talking about ordinary folks and not militants, cronies and bootlickers, recipients of political office, fuel subsidy scammers, oil bunkerers and sycophants? As for the SW, and despite the hollow noise of "marginalization" by Yoruba disgruntled PDP element, GEJ has done no worse to the region than OBJ and Yar Adua and sensible Yorubas know not to expect anything of any PDP President wherever he hails from. It really is time we look beyond ethnicity to seek out the sort of President who can take brave and far reaching actions and decisions that will transform Nigeria drastically.

On point.

Interesting!

And even more interesting is the ongoing conversation. Let me illustrate . . . ....

Hausa of 2013: "Yoruba man, flease malaam, we served you twuu tames. Kingibe served abiola and we follow him. Atiku served babasanjo and we follow him"

SS/SE of 2013: "Ewu gambia, anuofia, you and your masters together are nothing - we SE are better than you and we SS own the oil. All of you and your awusa masters are leeches drinking our blood and therefore you must vote us OR we scatter Nigeria. And if USA, Russia, GB, North Korea, Israel and Lebanon didnt support you, we would have cancelled you all with your oily soup"

Yoruba man: "Hmmmmm, 2015 please come quickly"

15 Naira to the first person who sees where this is going to

MY POINT: Sensible people make alliances! Foolish people fart from their mouths in the belief that makes them look tough

berem: Yoruba May Determine Who Wins 2015 Presidency
07.05.2013, 5:32 Politics
The voting pattern of the Yoruba people of South-West
geopolitical zone in the 2015 presidential election may
determine who wins and who loses.
In 2011, even though the zone voted the Action
Congress of Nigeria in all the elections, they
voted more for the Peoples Democratic Party's
candidate in the presidential election. That helped in no small
way to swing victory for President Goodluck Jonathan.
Many had fingered the ACN leader, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, for that
massive vote for Jonathan because of the last-minute discussions
he reportedly had with the latter. But that would be saying that
the South-West people are sheep that don't have their own mind.
Weeks before the 2011 presidential election, even while talks were
on between the Congress for Progressive Change and the ACN,
many South-West people had made it clear that they would vote
for Jonathan for the Presidency, even though they would vote the
ACN in all other elections. The appreciable population of other
non-Yoruba residents in the South-West also helped to increase
the number of votes Jonathan garnered in the zone.
President Jonathan has not stated clearly whether he will contest
the 2015 election. But his unspoken words seem to point more to
the fact that he will contest than the other way. Even though he
completed the remaining term of his former boss, the late
President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, after he died in office on May 5,
2010, and won an election in 2011, he is constitutionally qualified
to run for office in 2015.
Ethnicity and religion play a great role in Nigerian politics, and
they will play a role in the 2015 election. The North, especially the
North-East and the North-West zones, has never hidden its
sadness and anger over the loss of presidential power as a result
of the illness and death of Yar'Adua. The North feels that it was
cheated out of power. Some even alleged that the cheating was
pre-planned by former President Olusegun Obasanjo with his
choice of Yar'Adua, who was known to have a health condition.
Supporters of power rotation felt that Jonathan should have
completed Yar'Adua's term and allowed a Northerner to contest
the presidency, so that the North could complete its eight years
just like the South. There was some sense of justice in that
viewpoint.
But Jonathan and many of his South-South people and some
other Nigerians who opposed power rotation felt that given that
the South-South or the entire Niger Delta region, the producer of
Nigerian oil wealth, had not produced an elected president in
Nigeria, even though the North had produced same many times,
he should run for office for the sake of justice and fairness.
There was also some sense of justice in that point of view. In
addition, many wondered if Jonathan were not to contest for the
presidency, would the Northerner that would take over from him
do only a term and leave office, since Yar'Adua had done about
three years of his four-year tenure?
There are those who believe that the rise in violence of the Boko
Haram sect after the 2011 elections had direct links with that
feeling of loss and cheating that the North had. Even though
Boko Haram started as a religious sect, there is no denying that it
has had political influence in recent times. Some people have
even said that if Jonathan were to drop his political ambition for
2015, Boko Haram would fizzle out.
Before the run-up to the 2011 elections, Maj.-Gen. Muhammadu
Buhari (retd.) and his Congress for Progressive Change, the
major challenger to President Jonathan and his Peoples
Democratic Party then, handled the merger talks with the Action
Congress of Nigeria with some presumptuousness. They
presumed that Jonathan would not win the election on the first
ballot, since the South-South, South-East and some North-Central
voters would vote for him, while the North-West (with its
perceived high population) and the North-East would vote for
Buhari, with the South-West voting for Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of
the ACN, thereby making the election go into a second ballot.
Even though the South-West vote was split between Jonathan and
Ribadu, but with more going to Jonathan, that made it easier for
him to win on the first ballot. That seemed to have taught Buhari
and the CPC a lesson that working with the Yoruba and ACN was
not just necessary but critical, if the PDP would ever be beaten.
But it is true that the South-West vote did not come from only the
Yoruba, given the high population of other-Southerners in the
South-West, especially in Lagos.
And so, rather than wait till 2015 to commence merger talks, the
CPC, ACN, ANPP and a part of the All Progressive Grand Allaince
began early, which is a great plus. And rather than the hard lines
that characterised the 2011 merger talks, the talks for the merger
are being treated with more respect for each other as well as
without any pre-conditions. Anybody who says that the PDP is
not rattled by the merger talks of the All Progressives Congress is
economical with the truth. The reason the PDP has ruled for 14
unbroken years is because the opposition parties had displayed
disunity, pride and greed. Having a united opposition against the
PDP is the first step towards thwarting the fulfilment of the
prediction of Chief Vincent Ogbulafor in 2008 that the ruling party
would rule Nigeria for 60 years!
For the 2015 elections, however, many scenarios exist. First,
Jonathan may decide not to run, which is most unlikely. He may
present himself for the primaries and lose to another candidate,
given that some governors and former President Olusegun
Obasanjo are working against his ambition. Even though this
scenario will further show our democracy as exemplary, it is also
far-fetched, as no Nigerian President has lost his party's
primaries.
So, if Jonathan is running in 2015, the APC will be concerned
about the team that can beat him. Buhari, Ribadu and Mallam
Ibrahim Shekarau - all former presidential candidates of the
merging parties - are possible candidates. Even a PDP member -
the incumbent Speaker of the House of Representatives, Alhaji
Aminu Tambuwal - has been mentioned as a possible candidate
of the APC. In the South, there are Governors Babatunde Raji
Fashola, Adams Oshiomhole, Rochas Okorocha, Tinubu and
Senator Chris Ngige.
The combination that will likely attract the highest number of
votes from the North and South-West may be that of Buhari-
Fashola or Buhari-Tinubu. If Indeed Tambuwal is an option,
combining with these two men from the South-West would also
attract votes for the party. But there is a snag in that. The key
figures from the North are all Muslims and the two key figures
from the South-West are also Muslims. In the South-West,
religion does not matter in politics. But in other parts of Nigeria,
it does. Presenting a Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2015 will not go
down well with the North-Central, South-East, and South-South.
Even though it worked in 1993 for the Abiola-Kingibe ticket, it will
attract deep suspicion now. In 1993, even though there had been
religious crises in Nigeria, there had not been anything on the
scale of the current Boko Haram carnage. This is a serious point
that the PDP will use - albeit surreptitiously - to campaign against
the APC.
There is also the possibility of using an Igbo or South-Southerner
as presidential or vice-presidential candidate to blunt the
influence of Jonathan in those two regions. But the minus is that
the North is so much focused on the Presidency now that any
arrangement that does not have a Northerner as the presidential
candidate in 2015 may not attract deep interest. A North-Central
Christian presidential candidate with a Southern Muslim running
mate is also an option. But it is no longer a secret that the one-
North stance of the North died around 1975 when Gen. Yakubu
Gowon was overthrown. The destiny of the North-Central or
Middle Belt, as they are better known, and the rest of the North is
not inextricably linked together anymore. The bloodletting in
Plateau State since 2001 has worsened the situation. A Middle
Belt Christian candidate will not sound to the North-East and
North-West - which are most times referred to as the "core
North" to further underscore that division - as a candidate that
has come to assuage the feeling of cheating that the "core North"
suffered by the loss of the presidency due to Yar'Adua's death.
The voting pattern of the South-East, South-South and North-
Central may not change much if Jonathan contests in 2015. He
may not garner as many votes as he did in 2011, depending on
his performance and perception between now and 2015. If he is
perceived as "improved" in his performance between now and
2015, his chances will be brighter. But if the APC makes a
strategic choice of presidential candidate and running mate, the
APC will be a major threat. Whatever happens, whoever the
Yoruba vote for en masse may have an advantage. And it is
obvious that the PDP and APC are aware of this and are
consequently courting the Yoruba.
The Yoruba have another advantage. They are the only group in
Nigeria that has been happy being in the opposition. Other ethnic
groups usually feel like a fish out of water whenever out of
power. So they will take their time to decide on whom to support.
Gradually, the Yoruba are moving to the centre of Nigerian
politics on their own terms. Even if they fail to rule in 2015
because of the unwritten agreement of rotation of power
between the North and the South, they will have a strong hand in
determining who occupies Aso Rock come 2015.



http://m.naij.com/news/33334.html

i think berem is closeted yoruba

EKONGKING:

i think berem is closeted yoruba

But she didn't write the article now.

AbdH:
But she didn't write the article now.

In some people's book, quoting a Yoruba person without using insults and vituperations means you must be "closeted Yoruba". A bit like a white racist claiming other caucasians are black on the inside merely because they don't wish to join them in denigrating and hating all black folks blindly and unreasonably. Or vice versa as we see on this forum i.e racist black folks quick to label any Nairalander who has no problem with white folks as "Uncle Toms" and such garbage.

Nothing indicates those who are maladjusted and losing in life than the desperate desire of these types to insist others must dump their individual opinions, perhaps formed from positive experiences, to join their 'herd' cause that lends itself only to the crude stereotyping and hatred of others. Classic hallmark of the loser with no achievement or greatness linked to his individual name. Attaching himself completely and misguidedly to the pack or herd, while losing the ability to reason independently, is everything to these losers.

Arrant nonsense