Mankind2024:
I reviewed my portfolio at the close of business today, August 26th and faced a harsh reality, my NGX portfolio had incurred a paper loss of over NGN8M.
"NGX is a gamble 🎰 "
This reminded me of Warren Buffett's recent letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, where he described the modern stock market as a casino. It's time for me to shift from being an investor to a regular trader. I'm following all the traders in this forum closely.
Investing (or 'farming') has become a dangerous profession, while trading (or 'hunting') is more lucrative. I'll be trading with all the resources and tools at my disposal. The good news for traders in NGX is that the market is relatively unsophisticated, with no derivatives, options trading, or leveraging, no shorting.
Additionally, stock prices are capped at a daily fluctuation of ±10%, meaning they cannot appreciate or decline more than 10% in a single day. This is music to my brokers' ears, I'm sure.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/warren-buffett-says-stock-market-is-becoming-casino-like-how-to-invest-and-not-gamble

It's amazing how you're enlightened enough to read Warren Buffetts letters but end up following the exact path he preaches against...

God speed in your new foray... May it not lead to even more losses for you...

aj8:


Nope sir, not same stock all the way to 128 sir., rollover stock to stock. Cash out at each bus stop and eye the next entry. The only challenge I have had in the past with this is that once it’s over 50mil, you may need to split into a couple with equal potential. Will always cash out sir. Same principle you have taught here over the years just with some adjustments…..instead of waiting years, I just hit and move to another stock…..honestly sometimes you could cover 3 moves in a year.

When Mike Tyson was asked by a reporter whether he was worried about Evander Holyfield and his fight plan he answered; “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

Have you ever wondered if all the personal wealth building principles we share here really work?

This week on the podcast, we have a chat with a retail investor, Mr Sam, whose life story embodies all the principles we advocate on the podcast.

He shares how he went from not having shoes to wear to school to being able to comfortably retire today, if he chooses to, in his early 50's.

We hope this episode encourages you to continue your journey to wealth wherever you might have started from.

Thanks for listening and sharing...

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7uUICyNCyBlIGY8tgSaazc?si=QafYuHIoRxW-onUtnxvdzg

narite:

Why are the episodes not being arranged from 1, 2, 3..to 100? They are in descending order.

Anytime I reload my browser I had to start scrolling down again. It irritates me.

I'm sorry you've struggled with the sequence of the episodes. Unfortunately, we do not have control over how the hosts areanges the episodes.

I struggle with it too but that's how it is unfortunately.

Thanks for understanding

Mankind2024:
@yMcy56, how are you doing? I hope your weekend was awesome. Are you emotionally or financially attached to your investments? Lol.
Also, I'd love to hear your thoughts on how to identify a bad management team in Nigeria's listed companies. What red flags or signs do you look out for?

Apologies for butting in... I'm not @Mcy56 but this might help...

https://open.spotify.com/episode/56N6zSjo0SiU5Ct38Hmfee?si=cfgC1HmjRDe5iM2l4I4IdQ

Mankind2024:
My view on International Breweries plc.
I'm borrowing a word from the legendary investor, Peter Lynch, who opined that the best way to make money from the stock market is not to get scared out of it. I'm sitting on a 33% paper loss on my investment in IB since 2017/2018, when I bought 10,000 units at N48 per share. I have been averaging down on this value-trapped stock. Reading Peter Lynch's book titled "Invest in What You Know", I resolved not to get scared out of IB, which I strongly believe will soon trade below N3.50 once the unjustifiable rights issue is completed. This is when I would start averaging down again. I am not getting scared out of IB until the company is delisted. My message to the management of this good company with bad management is that they should be ashamed of themselves and resign en masse.
With the look of things, Wale Tinubu might have repented, while the same cannot be said about the clueless managing team of IB plc.

I respect your opinion and stance. In fact, I salute you..

However, kindly consider and take some time to think about the opposing view to have a good balance of opinions...

I'll end by saying that a man who is head over heels in love with his girlfriend is usually the last person to notice that she is cheating on him...

#Selah...

Ginalex:
Good Afternoon my ogas. Please what study materials/courses would you recommend that can help me improve in the art stock valuation? I believe there's a lot I can achieve in the remaining half of this year and beyond if I'm armed with this skill... Please help a baby in the industry trying to find her footing. Thank you

I love the fact that you're specific in what you want to learn, stock valuation.

Many of the books on this subject are very advanced and for professionals. The best and most simplified reading I've ever done on valuation is from a little known book by Mohnish Pabrai called "Mosaic". The book is out of print but is available for free on his website.

I'll post a link to the chapter on valuation below. I hope it helps give you a foundation you can build on with other materials.

Cheers.

https://www.chaiwithpabrai.com/uploads/5/5/1/3/55139655/intrinsic_value.pdf

It's funny how people focus on the price a company is selling at (watching its every squiggle up or down) without ever thinking about the value they are getting or rejecting when they buy or decide against buying the company...

If all the listed companies were actual persons, would we be proud to call some of them our friends or brothers or family?

Anyway, we all are playing different games and running different races...

Eku investing oh...

nosa2:


Yes oh........... I'm back in the Nigerian market. Make we come rofo rofo the place

Welcome back Oga Nosa...

For newbies who would like to know Oga Nosa better, you can listen to my conversation with him on my podcast...

Solid oga he is indeed...

47. Investing in commodities: A chat with Mr Peter Iyen (Nosa2) https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/value-nigeria/episodes/47--Investing-in-commodities-A-chat-with-Mr-Peter-Iyen-Nosa2-e1dlsgo

xyrexzmanto:
Good evening all , I will like to invest but I don't av idea of how it works @all.... Will be glad if some1 can put me tru thanks.

Check out my podcast, Value Nigeria with Ajibola, on Spotify for Podcasters: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/value-nigeria

It is a great place to start your journey in financial literacy...

We welcome, as our guest, Mr. Adebayo Adebanjo (Senior Analyst, CardinalStone Securities) on this episode of the Value Nigeria Podcast.

We discuss the cement manufacturers and why they are so crucial to our economy and the Nigerian Stock Market. We look at the bull and bear case for that industry and explore each player in that sector through the lens of what they are doing well at present and how they can do even better going forwards.

I strongly believe that retail investors stand to gain a whole lot from this discussion with our well-versed guest.

Thanks for listening and sharing...

https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/value-nigeria/episodes/95--A-look-at-the-Cement-Manufacturers-A-chat-with-Mr--Adebayo-Adebanjo-e2iltv8

KarlTom:
You just echoed my thoughts.

I've spent a couple of hours perusing the AFS of both Coys and the more I look, the less I seem to understand.

Some differing metrics:
Net interest income GTHC 436.6bn Zenith 736.1bn
PAT GTHC 539.6bn Zenith 676.9bn

Can anyone she'd come light on this?

Thank you

For banks, forget the income statement... Focus on the balance sheet... That's where the real gold is...

Compare the assets and equity of all the banks. Then look at how much profits they are generating from those assets and equity. You'll see one reason why GTCo is priced at a premium to other banks...

Mr Okwudili Egwu (SVP, Cowry Asset management LTD) returns as a guest on this new episode of the podcast for a Masterclass in Fixed Income Investing.

He discusses the inflation rate, factors behind it's meteoric rise and the necessity of the rising interest rates. He also discussed the impact of the high interest rates on fixed income instruments and educated the retail investors on how to take advantage of the attractive yields in the fixed income space.

Retail investors will do well to heed his advise and explore the option of investing in fixed income assets at this crucial time.

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9hbmNob3IuZm0vcy80ZWI5NzRjNC9wb2RjYXN0L3Jzcw/episode/YWVkYjU4NmMtNzY1Zi00MjQ0LTk0OWEtMzBhYjU5YTk5NTcy?ep=14

The return of Aig...

222Martins:


Tony Elumelu is here with his Boju Boju again ............I wonder how many percent stake the parent Transcorp has in this new Transcorp Power PLC. Parent Transcorp has a 40,647,990,293 outstanding shares with market cap of N580.45Billion...........While the new Transcorp power has 7,500,000,000 outstanding shares with listing valuation of N1.8Trillion...............

The Tony Elumelu Boju Boju magic

Transorp owns 51% of transcorp power

MUCH ADO ABOUT TRANSCORP POWER FOR SHAREHOLDERS OF TRANSCORP PLC

To understand the present and predict the future (if this is possible at all), we need to understand the past.

Trancorp Hotels Plc, owned by Transcorp Plc (88% and the FG 12% in 2014). They did an IPO in the same year by selling 800 million shares at N10 per share.

Transcorp Hotels Plc had 7,182,000,000 issued shares. Post offer the shares outstanding was to become 7,982,000,000.

Unfortunately the IPO was 52.3% subscribed. The company was thus able to raise N4,184,039,000 out of the N8billion on offer. A total of 418,403,980 ordinary shares were therefore allotted to the subscribers for a total of 1,293 applicants. This brought total shares outstanding to 7,600,403,980.

In 2020, transcorp power did a RIGHTS ISSUE OF 2,659,574,468 ORDINARY SHARES OF N0.50 EACH AT N3.76 PER SHARE ON THE BASIS OF 7 NEW ORDINARY SHARE FOR EVERY 20 ORDINARY SHARES.

However, only 2,642,124,511 units were taken by shareholders, signifying that the level of subscription was 99.34 per cent. The total issued and fully paid-up shares of Transcorp Hotel increased from 7,600,403,900 units to 10,242,528,411 units after the rights issue.

Following all the above, Transcorps ownership of transcorp hotels dropped from 88% to 76.16%.

Did any shareholder of transcorp get one unit of transcorp hotels as compensation for owning transcorp in all these gymnastics above? No!

Yet someone somewhere that owns transcorp thinks he or she is going to get units of transcorp power allotted to them. I laugh in Spanish...

UBA allotting shares in United capital, Africa Prudential registrars and afriland properties was a different ball game. That was a spin-off and it had a scheme of arrangement between UBA and it's shareholders agreeing to the allotment of shares. Transcorp power is a listing by introduction. Two very different things.

UBA spun off business it was no longer allowed to have under its umbrella. Transcorp plc is still very much interested in keeping transcorp hotel and power under its auspices.

Another case in point, when UACN plc decided to distribute it's direct holdings in UPDC REITs to it's shareholders, there was a scheme of arrangement that was made public before it was concluded.

Have you seen or heard of any scheme of arrangement between transcorp plc and it's shareholders discussing a distribution of shares in Transcorp power to shareholders of transcorp plc?

Transcorp plc may wake up tomorrow and decide to give out shares in its power or hospitality businesses but that's highly unlikely to happen. They are not Father Christmas.

If you are a shareholder of transcorp plc, enjoy the speculative ride that this whole saga will bring and the indirect dividends you will enjoy from all the subsidiaries but it you're expecting to receive share in Transcorp power, you are on a long thing. A very long thing...

(NB: Credits to Nairametrics, proshare, business post newspaper and transcorp power annual reports as the source of all the data above.)

Ajibola Awolowo
Value Nigeria Podcast

Get ready for "Buy one, get one free" in the market once it opens today...
Blood shall flow...

Interesting times ahead...

In our first podcast episode of the year, we chat with Mr Atiku Audu (Head, Investment Management of a leading PFA in Nigeria).

He also shares lessons from his transition into finance from engineering and why ensuring you live to fight another day may the be most essential skill for every investor.

We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did.

https://anchor.fm/value-nigeria/episodes/93--Longevity-in-investing-A-chat-with-Mr-Atiku-Audu-e2ftvhi

Continue buying rubbish companies without fundamentals...

The thing your eye is looking for, you will see in excess...

Companies that have sound fundamentals sef are afraid of what is about to hit them takllkless of companies without revenue, loads of retained losses etc.

OakPearl:


Insider information reaching me just yesterday has it that they are about to add ARM to their acquisition spree.

This has been in the public space for a few days...

https://nairametrics.com/2024/01/27/access-holdings-gets-regulatory-approval-to-acquire-majority-stake-in-arm-pensions/?amp=1

https://nairametrics.com/2024/01/29/a-new-horizon-for-pension-as-arm-pensions-and-access-holdings-agree-to-a-merger/?amp=1

stcool:


NGN23+B in profit with EPS NGN+2...we are going somewhere.

This one don enter my long term Keep

Let me give you an assignment.

Use a calculator to and divide the stated profit for the period by the total outstanding shares (check note 14 for the figure) and tell us what the EPS should be...

Don't believe everything you see in the financial statements hook, line and sinker...

Companies are not immune from making mistakes in their FS.

RichEstate:


Word of God confirmed this that there'll always be poor in the land* And my advise is, DON'T LET THAT BE YOU! POSITION YOURSELF.

I love this line sir... Really thought provoking. Permission to copy it and quote you please?

In bull markets, everyone becomes an expert...

Selah...

New article...

In it, I discuss what a mistake in investing is, how to identify your mistakes and why you should boldly make new mistakes.

I hope it helps improve and refine your process.

https://stocksng.com/make-new-mistakes/

bestbiz17:
As a beginner that wants to know the NGX market, where do I learn from, what resources do I need to get, and most importantly how to stay updated. Because your discussions is looking like magic to me. (Lol) . Your responses will be appreciated. Thanks

You might want to listen to my podcast where I break down investing and wealth building.

Start from episode 1 and gradually build up your knowledge. If you have questions, ask here and you'll get answers.

All the best.

https://anchor.fm/value-nigeria

PuristForest:


Q4 yields best monthly returns and Q1 the worst, means that we should prepare for the imminent bearish market in the coming months.

To take the discussion further, your observation that q4 is usually positive and q1 negative is probably not always true. I don't think one can safely build a strategy based off this as it is market timing in my own world.

Q4 was terrible in the first 3 years on the chart and q1 was fair in the last 3 years...

Any thoughts?

PuristForest:


Just a few comments from the yearly matrix in the linked article, which i find quite insightful. Although i am not totally aligned with the author in certain areas, i find interesting the fact that we have had 4 consecutive bullish years from 2021, with 2020 yielding the best returns. Q4 yields best monthly returns and Q1 the worst, means that we should prepare for the imminent bearish market in the coming months.

Accept my warm handshake boss... I love how you stated your case... Much respect..

Last week, I saw an excellent post by CHIDI UZO with a beautiful chart showcasing the monthly and annual returns of NGX ASI over a 10 year period. He kindly consented to my reproducing the chart.

it was thought provoking and led me to write an article about a few lessons I took away from looking at the chart.

I hope you find it instructive...

https://stocksng.com/lessons-from-10-years-of-market-returns/

As a sequel to episode 69, we chat with Mr Damilare Asimiyu (Head, Investment Research, Afrinvest West Africa) about the changing landscape in the brewing industry.

He passionately describes an investment thesis that showcases both the vast opportunities and the headwinds facing the industry at present.
We discuss how 2022 was a breakout year for the brewers and how 2023 is a different kettle of fish.

Lastly, he advices the retail investors on how to strategically profit from the brewers in this season.

https://anchor.fm/value-nigeria/episodes/92--Another-look-at-the-Brewers-A-chat-with-Mr-Damilare-Asimiyu-e2d1tr5

aj8:
The FBHN trajectory makes common sense only through a bonus issuance. May be a dividend of N1.50 and a 1:4 bonus in which case a price target of N30.00-N32.00 would make sense.

Please this is not an investment advice. Hopefully an intelligent guess.

Bonus issue? Whilst doing a right issue as well. Very highly unlikely if management is sensible.

If I was a shareholder and the company did this, I would sell my shares the very next day...

ositadima1:


Before delving into the analysis, I'd like to provide some context for those unfamiliar with VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price). I've considered ways to scrape Morgan Capital's intraday data, but their platform's design poses challenges. Algorithmic processing of this data would be immensely beneficial, eliminating the need for constant monitoring like Mcy56's round-the-clock vigil. [

This VWAP thing you mentioned reminds me of Oga Meshpips... He used it to identify NAHCO as a winner many months ahead of fundamental analysis highlighted it to many. It was still selling below N5 when he strongly recommended it.

I hope he is doing great wherever he is...

BAMOFIN1:
Dr. Awo, welcome back Sir. Please is there a way to download these interviews on my phone so I can listen to them offline and also have them permanently. There is a similar audio cast on YouTube called 'Chat with Traders' that one can download as a audio file. Thanks for the efforts from which I have learned a lot.

Apologies for the late reply. I've only just seen your message.

It depends on the platform you listen on. If you listen via Spotify or Google podcasts, you can download an episode to listen whenever you're offline.

I hope this helps.