@ All the gurus in the House
I am interested in IGI insurance but they are not listed on the NSE, how do I go about purchasing their shares and other private companies? Does anyone know if they ended up buying/controlling NICON like they were planning to sometime back?

Also, what's the expert take on Dangote Flour? Some sources in Nigeria say he has quite a considerable piece of flour market share, but the leader in that group (Flour Mills) is seeking to diversify into Cement Prod. in Calabar. So, Dangote Flour+ Obajana Cement VS Flour Mills + Flour Mills cement, Long term analysis. Gurus please don't let this question be buried, I am sure some people can also gain from it too,
Thanks in advance.

ty_ademolu:

Hello. During the time of the mad rush for penny stocks and insurance stocks. I made a silly mistake and sold some of my blue chip stocks to buy stocks like.

Crusader, NEM, Mbenefit, Dangote Sugar, Lasaco, UACN, NAHCO, RTBRISCOE. Even though I only bought small amounts in each of this stocks. the collective loss is bombarding me and I have not gained anything off them so far.

Right now, I'm frustrated and would like to get your honest opinion on which stocks I could hold and which I could sell. I have lost up to 30% on Crusader, NEM and Dangote (bought at N55 (some stockbrokers are wicked)).

Please help before all this stocks enter N0 each. Thanks

Relax, markets fluctuate due to investor's expectations and other factors. None of your stock shld reach zero (these companies have assets and balance sheets that speak for them). Stocks like Crusader and MBenefit, even Lasaco are currently trading at fairly attractive prices and if they can grow their earnings along the lines they have been doing, there is no doubt about an uprise. Another surge in Insurance stocks will see you enjoy good returns but how long might u wait? Thats a million dollar question.

MBenefits earnings are very strong. Crusader also paid a dividend of 15k a whole ago, If you have money, i would ask you to watch carefully, if crusader drops further, buy some more units, its has been dropping mo forcefully but its books are not bad at all.
Its best to take advantage of pricing irrationalities in the market if you want to make significant gains.

Hello esteemed Nairalanders,
My uncle says there is a lack of dependable stockbrokers in Jos. Does any one have the knowledge to become a stock broker? I need NSE requirements for registration, estimated capital requirements, advertising suggestions, internet access required or not? ALSO, what are some pitfalls to look out for?? Crooks, areas one might lose money, etc. Thanks

@ all gurus, the market is really looking dull rite now, i hate pos as much as the next person but things are looking kinda dull rite now, that mite just be the last option with all the offers coming out. do u guys see any improvement soon
im still praying on wema

shigidi:

@ all gurus, the market is really looking dull rite now, i hate pos as much as the next person but things are looking kind of dull rite now, that mite just be the last option with all the offers coming out. do u guys see any improvement soon
im still praying on wema

Pray, tell us what your intentions are for Wema? You never know, I might join you in storming heaven

Guys I need your help on Wema Bank Shares. I have been thinking of buying some Wema Bank Shares based on the forecasted PAT of N6.4b but I just checked their website and the unaudited FYE 2006 PAT is only N2.2b. Am I missing something here? Is the forecasted 6.4b for FYE 2007? If it is so, when is this due? The share price has been falling for the last couple of days, I'm confussed. Pls help your brother before I get my fingers burnt.

@ Jungle700,

Wema bank's unaudited 1Q result was N1.6B PAT. That is what people have been projecting to N6.4B. May be right, may be wrong. The MD was on record (at church mind you, so he was sort of under oath ) saying they had surpassed N5B for FYE 2007. I've also heard unsubstantiated gist of N5.4B for 9 months.

Anyway, expect between N5.5 and N7B (EPS of 55k - 70k) which would make it attractive at the current price.

Guys, what can we say about NASCON after the huge throw down of its share at N22.

Hi all,

Please i bought Transcorp Shares early this year and just of recent, while going through the evidence of payment,I discovered that I did not include my account number.Please can anyone tell me aw to go about it and hope it doesn't affect or diqualify my shares.

Please help.
Thanx

Is Fidelity Bank PO out?

nossycheek:

Is Fidelity Bank PO out?

NO, Fidelity is not out. W are expecting it in september shortly after access ends.

expected banking po's and times

fidelity-september
fcmb-september
bank phb-october
sterling-october-december

wema and skye-not sure

Bank IPOs don tire me. Won't there be an end?

Word to the wise, wait until the new shares are listed so you can form a true picture of the stock's fundamentals.

easimoni:

Bank IPOs don tire me. Won't there be an end?

Word to the wise, wait until the new shares are listed so you can form a true picture of the stock's fundamentals.

Meself don tire for the po's but person need to see how to profit from them.
I prefer trading the secondary marke trading but there will be opportunities to profit Even if it lies in the pre and post offer rallies.

Afterall i am sure you would have liked to have waited in the sec market for FBN and got out at say 56. decent profit.

I believe one of the reasons why bankin sector will not see any drastic correction for a while will be all these po's but it does prompt one to really beware what the future holds.

i am not a big fan of po's too for reasons of time it takes to get cert, opportunity cost of your money, no liquidity, no sincere analysis but we'll still work around them so i am waiting for them.

I was dissappointed that GTB went for GDR when the money could well have been raised in naija. If they had gone by way of po, we would have been licking our lips waiting for the suspension to be lifted.

Anyway, we have time to prepare for the others.

@ Mongue,
Julius Ber. reappeared today. I think it was an oversight because there were no trades for a few days.

Temmie10:

I believe one of the reasons why bankin sector will not see any drastic correction for a while will be all these po's but it does prompt one to really beware what the future holds.

Actually, I 'd think that's why there should be a correction soon. Too many shares being sold. Less money to give back to your peeps.
Anyway, they are all growing at very good rates. Might be enough to offset the increase in outstanding shares. Who know sef?

Find below an article on PZ in todays financial standard.
Guru's in the house what do you think, the price closed at N30 today. I am thinking of plugging in after the register closes and the price is adjusted. And then hook in for the medium to long term?
They need to do soomething about their high operating expense.
any thot or comments.

[/quote]Improved return on investment lifts PZ

By Taofik Salako
Combined cash and scrip dividends by the board of PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc yesterday spurred a scurry for ordinary shares of the conglomerate on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE}, pushing its market consideration to a new year high.
Directors of PZ Cussons Nigeria at the weekend announced that they have recommended payment of N1.80 billion as cash dividend in addition to distribution of some 635.3 million shares as scrip shares for the year ended May 31, 2007.
Market consideration of the conglomerate yesterday rose by the maximum daily allowable percentage change of five percent to reach a year-to-date high of N30.37 per share. PZ Cussons Nigeria had opened this month at N25 per share.
Analysts said a bonus issue of one for four and cash dividend of 71 kobo represented attractive returns to investors pointing out that market orders from investors rushing to take advantage of the September 3, 2007 closure date for register of shareholders for the combined dividends.
Analysts at Crossworld Securities in their current stock pick advised investors to buy and hold on to shares of PZ Cussons Nigeria, indicating possibility of future rise in share price of the company.
Audited report and accounts of the company for the year ended May 31, 2007 showed a turnover of N54.22 billion in 2007 as against N42.22 billion in 2006, an increase of 28 per cent. Profit after tax however grew by 8.7 per cent from N3.23 billion in 2006 to N3.51 billion in 2007.
Although details of the current report are yet to be released, analysts said the 2007 report reflected the growth pattern of the conglomerate in recent years characterised by strong growth in sales and marginal growth in profit. PZ Cussons Nigeria grew sales by 27 percent in 2006 but high operating expenses and financing charges mitigated the effects on the bottom-line.
The audited report and accounts for the year ended May 31, 2006 showed that initial improvement in profitability thinned out with jumpy growth in expenses, leading to decrease in returns. Group turnover rose by 27 per cent in 2006 to N43.5 billion compared with an increase of 22 per cent to N34.14 billion in 2005. Cost of sales rose by 26 per cent to N32.3 billion in 2006 compared with N25.6 billion in 2005. The relative low growth rate of cost of sales nudged the gross profit to N11.22 billion in 2006 as against N8.52 billion in 2005, representing an increase of 32 per cent. However, operating expenses grew by 38 per cent from N4.91 billion in 2005 to N6.79 billion in 2006 while interest expenses also grew by 70 per cent from N128 million in 2005 to N217 million in 2006. These impacted on the bottom-line. Pre-tax profit rose by 10 per cent to N4.80 billion in 2006 as against N4.38 billion in 2005 while profit after tax inched up by 5.8 per cent from N3.38 in 2005 billion to N3.57 billion in 2006.
Underlying ratios of the conglomerate further reflected the top-heavy nature of performance in 2006. Gross profit margin rose from 25 per cent in 2005 to 26 per cent in 2006 but pre-tax profit margin dropped from 13 per cent in 2005 to 11 per cent in 2006. Returns on assets and equity altogether dropped from 10 per cent and 17 per cent respectively in 2005 to 8.5 per cent and 13.2 per cent in 2006.[quote]

Thanks very much for the above PZ infomation.

Can anyone please tell me the fate of those who bought Trade Bank's share. AFter buying from their I.P.O in 2004, the capital base thing was effected a few months later and because they couldn't get up to the 25 Billion naira they dropped out. However, Soludo himself stated that the money acquired from the I.P.O has not been credited to the account of Trade bank yet and as such would be refunded to investors. But my brothers, since then we have been keeping our fingers crossed but have not heard anything yet. Please what is actually going on. If the money is gone they should as well let us know and not to leave us in the dark. We can bear it by God's grace. Nigerians are used to mago mago.

@ the Gurus in particular & All
I sent a post in another topic of this forum for the sale of my Transcorp shares and got three people willing to buy, the highest was 9, i bought for 9.71 on the floor, i had agreed to sell it, then on second thought i felt i should let my broker know what i was about to do, he then ask me if i have not being listening to the news lately on transcorp
Not that i need cash now, but maybe by the end of the year i might
Based on rumor or what's in the news, my question is "WOULD IT BE RIGHT FOR ME TO SELL IT OFF NOW OR LEAVE IT FOR LATER?"

stanchuks:

@ the Gurus in particular & All
I sent a post in another topic of this forum for the sale of my Transcorp shares and got three people willing to buy, the highest was 9, i bought for 9.71 on the floor, i had agreed to sell it, then on second thought i felt i should let my broker know what i was about to do, he then ask me if i have not being listening to the news lately on transcorp
Not that i need cash now, but maybe by the end of the year i might
Based on rumor or what's in the news, my question is "WOULD IT BE RIGHT FOR ME TO SELL IT OFF NOW OR LEAVE IT FOR LATER?"

Transcorp is a weird company and we are never sure what is quite going on with them.
In terms of communicating with investors, their attitude is nothing to write homw about.
Having said that, there is a chance they MIGHT do well sometime in the near future.
Transcorp owns hilton, nitel and co and they are about to roll out gsm operations so i can understand your broker.

My Verdict
I dunno when Transcorp will wake up.
I do not even know when they the TS will be lifted
The same person that suspended the stock is the chairperson of transcorp so read btw the lines.
If you are ready to wait for "God knows how long", hold on

IF you belive like i do that your money will work better elsewhere, get out!!!!
If all you do is put the money in a banking ipo with sufficient discount, you will not regret getting out!!!

@ the Gurus in particular & All
I sent a post in another topic of this forum for the sale of my Transcorp shares and got three people willing to buy, the highest was 9, i bought for 9.71 on the floor, i had agreed to sell it, then on second thought i felt i should let my broker know what i was about to do, he then ask me if i have not being listening to the news lately on transcorp
Not that i need cash now, but maybe by the end of the year i might
Based on rumor or what's in the news, my question is "WOULD IT BE RIGHT FOR ME TO SELL IT OFF NOW OR LEAVE IT FOR LATER?"

@ Stanchuks,
didn't Temmie10 just answer you? It was a very good answer if I may add.

Transcorp have a of assets that would take them to great heights if turned around , so its likely that the any news coming out from transcorp this days would be about their plans to turn those assets around (like Nitel) , so they seem to have good future ahead .
Also as you said you are not gonna need the money until about end of the year , why don't you leave the stocks till them , just like your broker said you should leave it , believe me some other brokers brokers would say same to their clients and b4 you know it the hype that drives most Nigerian stocks would set in and the stock would start to gain , just my 2 cents though

Transcorp has been on net offer at the market for over 2 months. Sure signs that soooo many peeps are trying to sell. sure to be a bear run as soon as the suspension is lifted. BIG TIME. I'd say sell now and maybe buy back when it drops below N7. I'm very sure it will.

@easimoni
how do i go about selling now and re-buying later? i bought for 9.71 and the most intrested person that is willing to buy now is at a rate of 8.00/unit, considering brokers commission, my loss will be close to 120k naira considering 47k units that i have, going back to buy into Transcorp again is something i will not be think about for now,i bought transcorp when i had not joined this forum, the forum has made me take some valuable decisions before going into any stock
If there is any stock available for now on the floor that i can buy now and sell off making 50% by the end of the year, pls do let me know
Thanks for your reply

@egoldman
thanks for your reply, all you stated where things, i was told when i got into it, but it seems resolving their problems is taking forever

@temmie10
guy, you are always straight to the point,considering your reply and the once you sent other people,but i will like to know is it possible to buy Japaul PO buy september and still get your certificate by the end of the year, with this new e-allotment?

guys, i'm a bit worried about firstinland bank. i bought it big for short term but its been the opposite. now i heard they r in talks with Diamond bank. Do You Guys Think Of Any Possible Jump oF it price in short time at least above N13.

NICON insurance is planning a N50B PO or is it IPO imminently-----------http://odili.net/news/source/2007/aug/8/507.html

The question is this worth waiting for or should one dabble into the secondary market and wait for the post suspension bull run and then offload. I havent been in insurance stocks so would appreciate your thoughts on this

@ easimoni,
i need to ask u two questions,
1) ive bin getting quite confused when calculating eps of companies with public offers just concluded. how do u know when new shares are listed?? and if these newly listed shares always seem to affect the eps negatively then why do companies do pos at all.
2) bearing in mind what ive just said, what do u think bout possible price appreciation for oceanic in the future with its new shares and all. cos without it, the forecasted eps is 1.60 naira which should translate to about a 38-40 naira stock shouldnt it

shigidi:

@ easimoni,
i need to ask u two questions,
1) ive bin getting quite confused when calculating eps of companies with public offers just concluded. how do u know when new shares are listed?? and if these newly listed shares always seem to affect the eps negatively then why do companies do pos at all.
2) bearing in mind what ive just said, what do u think bout possible price appreciation for oceanic in the future with its new shares and all. because without it, the forecasted eps is 1.60 naira which should translate to about a 38-40 naira stock shouldnt it

Never has a better question been asked, I think! You simply have to keep in mind the number of shares sold during the PO and know that those shares WILL GET LISTED. You won't know when, except you have get solid reports from your broker. I don't use FSDH but I get their daily reports and they always report when additional shares get listed. E.g. 108M shares of UBA got listed today. And that doesn't include anything from the PO yet.

Why do they do POs? About 8 banks plan on being the biggest bank in Nigeria within the next 7 yrs. To do that, they need money to grow so they do POs and then do more POs. If they grew by retaining earnings only (not paying us dividends), they could grow at say 40% p.a. If they raise more money, they could grow at say 60% p.a. The thing is, there are now more hungry shareholders (like me to satisfy).

In the short-term it's bad to do POs, but it's probably good in the long-term if the money generates returns.

Any price appreciation on Oceanic will stop/reverse as soon as new shares are listed and the EPS is revised to account for new shares. If you want to calculate your own EPS, use the number of shares offered during the last PO, add ~10% (for over subscription) and then use the new total shares . Double-check when NSE lists the new shares (FSDH will tell u).

@ easimoni,i think i understand now. reviewing my oceanic eps by adding the 3+ billion that was offerd, it gives me an eps of about 1.3, assuming a pe ratio of about 26-28, that gives an estimated price of about 34-37 naira by the time its year end comes around and with rumors of another bonus, who knows
thank you so much for all oyur help

@ shigidi,
Oceanic's 3Q was N13.4B PAT. That projects to a FY of N18B. current shares  = 11.64B, PO shares = 3.36B, total shares  = 15B. Therefore, FY EPS (With PO shares)  = 18/15 = N1.2. If a PE of 25 is okay, the price is N30

This depends on how many addtional shares will be listed and meeting/exceeding the projected PAT. Your EPS may be based on  another time-frame (say 1-yr from now) but you are on the right track.

See another reason why I hate POs? Oceanic is N29.95 as we speak and I think it's worth N30 by the year end. Don't see any reason to buy for the short-term.

Easimoni to self: Maybe I should become a "long-termer"

Fortunately, because the market is full of irrational people, even some rational ppl who havent factored the extra shares, sentiment, year end approaching, I have a feeling this stock will eventually get to close to a pe of 30+ in which case i would not be surprised if the stock price reached a high of 40 even if it eventually subsides

@ easimoni, i used their projected PAT from their prospectus and also the one on IBTC stock select, which is about 18.6 billion, and i chose p.e of 28 cos of the rumored bonus and good divivdend