easimoni:

I know I'm pedantic. I'm an engineer.

But remember Warren Buffet's 1st rule? Never lose money. Just covering all my bases.

And Warren Buffet`s second rule is Dont forget the first!

Yeah i got an e-mail from Japaul oil to say the offer will be sometime in september so i suspect we wont be getting any propectus before then

@ otoks

Fidelity is definitely not cheap at the moment but i suspect they will release a very good result before their po so you might wanna hold on for the moment.

ROUGHCUT

Yeah i got an e-mail from Japaul oil to say the offer will be sometime in september so i suspect we wont be getting any propectus before then

According to japaul Oil & maritime's web site, their public offer is currently going on. It is to end in September not begin then.
Here's a link:http://www.japaulplc.com/japaul_application.pdf

Iwerebor:

ROUGHCUTAccording to japaul Oil & maritime's web site, their public offer is currently going on. It is to end in September not begin then.
Here's a link:http://www.japaulplc.com/japaul_application.pdf

yes that`s just the application form so where is the prospectus? I got an e-mail from japul telling me the they have to sort some regulatory issues and the offer is coming out sometimer in september. Once the regulatory formalities have been completed then you will have the prospectus on the website as well which is one of the dicuments the SEC will  need to approve before they can get approval to raise funds from the capital market.

Or are you saying you are just going to apply without even seeing the prospectus? if you want to go ahead and apply before they have been cleared then i suppose that would be your look-out and almost certainly the application will be invalid and almost certainly rejected by the issuing houses or the SEC as they have the final say.

Well enough said!

@RoughCut
please could you enlighten me on what to look out for in a prospectus, how do you know that this is a good stock or not.
i usually listen to you guys everyday, without really knowing whats on the propectus, when i see your views on the forum i simply take my decision without looking into the prospectus

stanchuks:

@RoughCut
please could you enlighten me on what to look out for in a prospectus, how do you know that this is a good stock or not.
i usually listen to you guys everyday, without really knowing whats on the propectus, when i see your views on the forum i simply take my decision without looking into the prospectus

As standard in a prospectus they usually make projections of what profit they hope to make in the next 5 years so for an intending investor what you need to look out for is the profit estimation for the next year and more especially the profit after tax(PAT) and then if you have the info as to the number of shares that will be listed(PO+shares already listed) you can calculate your earnings per share(EPS) and the price earning ratio(P/E) since you know the share price on a forward basis so you can make make a reasonable estimate of what the share price will be in a year`s time for example and then you can determine if you want to take a position at that point when the PO is issued or if you want to in the secondary market.

Also use the info in the prospectus to make your calculations based on past performance for example the last 2-3 years and this way your figures is based on historical performance which allows you to make a judgement a sthe the feasibilioty of the projections.

CAVEAT EMPTOR

The mere fact that you have used the figures in the prospectus to arrive at your financial ratios or even the ones in the prospectus does not mean it is going to be the case in the fur^ture a lot of things may happen the value of your investments may go down as well as up but at least you are not investing because you didnt have the information

Nuff said!

@ all the stock guru's

pls can u explain how the redenomination of our naira will affect us ans our stock investments also if we should buy b4 or after it

@RoughCut
Enough heard!!!!!!!!!!

@ All,
I think we've done a good job of ignoring the 500 Ib elephant in the room; Insurance Stocks. I can't find enough data (frankly, I wasn't keeping track, too busy with banks) to enable me make an informed decision. Too many have done Public and Private offers and I fear buying a company with a forward PE of say 8 only to find that they'll list X many shares and the forward PE will now be 25. The picture is fuzzy to say the least.

But can we ignore the following recent results?

Company Period PAT% Incr.
Lasaco 6 mos 1200
Crusader 6 mos 308
Int Energy 6 mos 1300
Equity Assur 6 mos 3100
NEM 6 mos 350
Cornerstone 6 mos 310

True, a few like GNI have not done well, but look at those numbers. Are we not missing another banking boom? Insurance stocks are clearly the stocks to make us rich in 2007.

Personally, I need the prospectus of each company that did a PO to judge how many additional shares were to be listed, if they haven't been listed already.

The results for Mutual Benefit have not been released. If they follow the trend above, the PE could drop dramatically from the current 31. NSE says they have 5.91B shares. Does this include the proceeds of last year's PO or are there additional shares about to drop?

Pity no one website has all this info readily available. Any help out there?

Hi Guys,

Just to say I am new to this forum and I think its great. Weldone to all the gurus in the house. I have learnt a lot in the few weeks I have been reading through the different threads on stocks.

I am also very keen on the insurance sector, but I am still very new to investing in shares. I would like to invest about 2M. I have read a bit and understand about fundamentals and all that. But I watched in the sidelines while share price of stocks I am interested went up. So I want to invest now while still learning.

So what do the gurus think about?

1. Access Bank (secondary market) I know its very scarce but I might be lucky and get some
2. Japaul Oil -PO
3.AIICO and Mutual Benefits
4. Continental Re
5. FCMB- In view of their proposed public offer
6. May and Baker

My aim is capital appreciation.

Many thanks for your response. Easimoni I know you are on, any response is much appreciated.

@ Kenjo

If i am being honest, you've actually done quite a good job and i dun see you losing money with your list.

@ Easimoni
strike cornerstone off that list for the time been, they are growing number oif shares faster than they are growing pat lol and their last result which was half year was dissapointing, same goes for eps.
and i think mutual benefit added their extra shares about 2 months ago so what u hav shld be correct, mutual benefit's june 2007 was actyally out a few weeks ago, i just can't find it now

Temmie10 thanks a lot, You are a star!!

Kenjo:

Hi Guys,

Just to say I am new to this forum and I think its great. Weldone to all the gurus in the house. I have learnt a lot in the few weeks I have been reading through the different threads on stocks.

I am also very keen on the insurance sector, but I am still very new to investing in shares. I would like to invest about 2M. I have read a bit and understand about fundamentals and all that. But I watched in the sidelines while share price of stocks I am interested went up. So I want to invest now while still learning.

So what do the gurus think about?

1. Access Bank (secondary market) I know its very scarce but I might be lucky and get some
2. Japaul Oil -PO
3.AIICO and Mutual Benefits
4. Continental Re
5. FCMB- In view of their proposed public offer
6. May and Baker

My aim is capital appreciation.

Many thanks for your response. Easimoni I know you are on, any response is much appreciated.

Will not bank on May and Baker for the short term. For the Long term, solid company! Danjuma bought almost 30% of the last PO that they made. Now he wons over 22% of the company.

Not too positive about AIICO also. Last result was good but there is a lot of ABRACADABRA in their results.

easimoni:

@ All,
I think we've done a good job of ignoring the 500 Ib elephant in the room; Insurance Stocks. I can't find enough data (frankly, I wasn't keeping track, too busy with banks) to enable me make an informed decision. Too many have done Public and Private offers and I fear buying a company with a forward PE of say 8 only to find that they'll list X many shares and the forward PE will now be 25. The picture is fuzzy to say the least.

But can we ignore the following recent results?

Company Period PAT% Incr.
Lasaco 6 mos 1200
Crusader 6 mos 308
Int Energy 6 mos 1300
Equity Assur 6 mos 3100
NEM 6 mos 350
Cornerstone 6 mos 310

True, a few like GNI have not done well, but look at those numbers. Are we not missing another banking boom? Insurance stocks are clearly the stocks to make us rich in 2007.

Personally, I need the prospectus of each company that did a PO to judge how many additional shares were to be listed, if they haven't been listed already.

The results for Mutual Benefit have not been released. If they follow the trend above, the PE could drop dramatically from the current 31. NSE says they have 5.91B shares. Does this include the proceeds of last year's PO or are there additional shares about to drop?

Pity no one website has all this info readily available. Any help out there?

well, you are joining tha party late. The insurance PO's were cheap and seriously undersubscribed. UNIC wnet for 1.10 and still undersubscribed that's why you cannot use the prospectus for making analysis now!

Secondly, most of them will meet their profit forecast. The funds raised during the PO are still with CBN/NAICOM so are not able to use for the purpose they wanted to use it for.

Some of them have also merged or acquire some otehr companies. So you need to consider that also.

Generally, the insurance sector is the hotcake now. With pension reform, health insurance, compulsory life assurance local content policy, compulsory building insurance, the opportunities are just massive!

Very few data on them are reliable but it is a sector worth positioning for.

We are waiting for the report reviewing the past consolidation exercise in the insurance sector due for release within 2 weeks.

I want to buy some Fidelity shares by crossing instead of waiting for the PO. Is it a wise move?

Secondly, how good is Japaul Oil and Dangote Flour?

easimoni:

@ All,
I think we've done a good job of ignoring the 500 Ib elephant in the room; Insurance Stocks. I can't find enough data (frankly, I wasn't keeping track, too busy with banks) to enable me make an informed decision. Too many have done Public and Private offers and I fear buying a company with a forward PE of say 8 only to find that they'll list X many shares and the forward PE will now be 25. The picture is fuzzy to say the least.

But can we ignore the following recent results?

Company Period PAT% Incr.
Lasaco 6 mos 1200
Crusader 6 mos 308
Int Energy 6 mos 1300
Equity Assur 6 mos 3100
NEM 6 mos 350
Cornerstone 6 mos 310

True, a few like GNI have not done well, but look at those numbers. Are we not missing another banking boom? Insurance stocks are clearly the stocks to make us rich in 2007.

Personally, I need the prospectus of each company that did a PO to judge how many additional shares were to be listed, if they haven't been listed already.

The results for Mutual Benefit have not been released. If they follow the trend above, the PE could drop dramatically from the current 31. NSE says they have 5.91B shares. Does this include the proceeds of last year's PO or are there additional shares about to drop?

Pity no one website has all this info readily available. Any help out there?

Good info there easimoni.Got an observation:From this weeks edition of stockswatch,EPS of some of these insurance coys at half year are:Cornerstone:0.03
MBenefit:0.08
Int Energ Ins:0.03
But Nem 0.30
Seems though their earnings are growing astronomically d shares outstandins is dwarfin it makin those with good eps to stand with very huge potential.What do u think easimoni,temmie10,aylala and d other gurus.Will appreciate ur comments.Tanks

Hey,

All the experts in the house, it's a good job I must say.

But then I'll be glad if someone can give me more info on MBenefits Assurance stock. I bought some units about a month ago, but since the the price has kept on dropping drastically. What could be happening?

Also need advice on some hot stocks that can yield good returns in 6 months time. I've been into stocks for some time now.

I'll appreciate contributions from you guys.

@ drdaniel

I think stockwatch has not used the latest results to calculate the eps. they have probably used rather outdated reults. This can be understood in the light that many insurance companies have released results in the last 1 month.

Even a pessimistic eps calculation  should still arrive at a figure of at least 0.07 for cornerstone and 0.12 for mutual benefits. Cornerstone half year result was 270m pat.
so u probably want to be careful with those eps you have listed.

NEM seems to have a forecast eps of 30k but i haven't seen any result to back that up. but i have read in many places that it is good.  advise you try to get your hands on some mo info on this one.

On NEM insurance

This company had a rights issue last year where 3.5 billion new shares were offered.
NEM, also released a half year result last week where 2nd quarter PAT was 213m.

Lets jus say i will not be buying NEM insurance anytime soon.

Temmie10 tanks.Sorry though conerstone eps @ half yr is 0.06 accord to stockwatch.(read td wrong column).Forecast full yr eps is 0.12.
Mbenefit forecat full yr is 0.16
Nem forecast full yr is 0.45

The eps from stocks watsh are baased on these last week results which they also have in their publication.
I will tend to think that with an eps of 0.30 at half yr nem might be worth looking deeper @. espec considering its current price.and if d ere no outstandin shares to be listed.Thanks

@ drdaniel

thats the point. there's too many more shares to be added, 3.53 billion to e precise
And the current earnings of the company is being dwarfed by the extra shares.
the company would have to grow pat at more than 200% per quarter to arrive at a decent eps.

Half year pat of 213 million is not good enough for a company that is valued at over 16 billion naira.
NSE website currently lists NEM eps as 0.04.

This is no way the best buy in the market at this time. Buyer Beware

Hello Temmie,

Can u pls educate me on how to go abt all these analysis? B4 now I've been using a stock broker but I believe it's better I do this analysis myself, although I'm not an economist I'll try my best.

How exactly do u get those figures and any good website/materials I can visit to get all these, I'll love to know.

Many thanks man.

Temmie10:

On NEM insurance

This company had a rights issue last year where 3.5 billion new shares were offered.
NEM, also released a half year result last week where 2nd quarter PAT was 213m.

Lets jus say i will not be buying NEM insurance anytime soon.

No problem. You don't have to buy.

While I appreciate your fears, you need to understand that your analysis is incomplete.

Like I said, most of those offers were undersubsribed so not all the rights were taken up.

secondly, NEM merged with Vigilant insurance so there is a bit of grey area as touching the outstanding shares. Same thing for ALL the insurance companies that merged.

What I can confidently say is that the merger of NEM with Vigilante insurance has done the company a lot of good.

@ wanajo

For the sake of all who will buy this stock at the current price, i hope you are right.

Facts do not lie o. Even if the offer was only 50% subscribed which is unlikely, it is still not attractive.


@ rezigirl
it requires a willingness to study and research
i'm @ temietope@gmail.com

Temmie10:

@ wanajo

For the sake of all who will buy this stock at the current price, i hope you are right.

Facts do not lie o. Even if the offer was only 50% subscribed which is unlikely, it is still not attractive.

Temmie, I did not pick up my own rights so I know like almost all the insurance offers were undersubscribed.

Globe Re was still hawking its private placement document around last week for an offer that closed Sept 2006.

For the insurance companies, PEG tells you more than the PE. What people are paying for now is the future earnings/growth. See how much they all are growing their profit. What do you think will happen when NAICOM/CBN release the money made from the consolidation but kept in the escrow account.

NEM's righst was done at 56k or thereabout!!!!

While not canvassing for anyone to buy NEM one thing is clear, the insurance companies that gets their acts right will be a gold mine. Yes, all the information needed are not available. I will however take a risk with them.

quite rightly NEM's rights were at 55k. Without boring you with details, many insurance firms were well subsrcibed and not as glomy as u claim: the ff info is from sec:

unic-89%, prestige-153%, lasaco-81%,law union-135%, Mbenefits-94.7%, crusader=93%, wapic-105%, cont re-100%

I am not saying NEM is the worst, rather i am saying categorically, it is no way the best.
If we just invested solely based on cbn releasing money to insurance firms, we might as well close our eyes and throw the dice on any of the 25 insurance firms listed.

Temmie10:

quite rightly NEM's rights were at 55k. Without boring you with details, many insurance firms were well subsrcibed and not as glomy as u claim: the ff info is from sec:

unic-89%, prestige-153%, lasaco-81%,law union-135%, Mbenefits-94.7%, crusader=93%, wapic-105%, cont re-100%

I am not saying NEM is the worst, rather i am saying categorically, it is no way the best.
If we just invested solely based on cbn releasing money to insurance firms, we might as well close our eyes and throw the dice on any of the 25 insurance firms listed.

Not all the companies met the consolidation target by raising capital. Some merged, while some scaled down their operation by focusing on either on Life or Non Life.

As per the bolded portion, release of money raised by the company is critical to tehir performance. It is like borrowing money that is not released for your use!!! Once that is done hopefully by the end of the month or early next month, you will see change.

To analyse NEM or any insuarnce company well, you need to know scheme of arrangement for their merger, the subsription level etc. One thing is however clear, those GROWING their profits at high rates are worth looking at.

@ wanajo, i know ur a big nigerian-german chemicals fan, u said it would be a good buy after the pull back. what does that mean from my calcs, its projected eps is 1.2 by year end so it should hit at least 20 naira, but its price is already above 16, so do u think theres any point in still jumping in.

this might be useful to someone. ON pg 11 is a list of companies that accessed the primary market to September 2006. Contains a bunch of insurance company. It won;t offer the full picture on the number of outstanding shares, but it may help someone.

Easimoni: Based on the results you posted would this prompt you to take a position in LASACO or any of those insurance stocks?

Omoba3:

Easimoni: Based on the results you posted would this prompt you to take a position in LASACO or any of those insurance stocks?

Been doing my research and I'm liking Lasaco, Crusader, M benefit and a couple of others. I know Crusader is scarce at the moment and I'm watching M benefit drop. I may buy into Lasaco until the others become clearer.