---------------------------------------------------------------------------- easimoni, why are u so off banks right now. is there something im missing

Good day ma people!!!!!!!!!!! Please can sumbody tell me how long this market downturn may last, FBN hybrid offer did the initial damage, Access offer may also not be unconnected to the current raging of the bears. I see a further dip as companies like FCMB, Fidelity, Skye, Bank PHB, Sterling, firstinland, Wema, Afribank, Dangote flour mill, Starcomms, ETI, GNI, Japaul, diamond and even Nahco (just to mention a few) are all joining the long queue of coys jostling for funds in the primary market. The market capitalisation may further dip by a conservative N600 billion on the short run depending on how soon these companies float their issues while barring all imminient listings from the recent public issues. Amidst these price crashes, I think people should break banks (if need be) to buy GTBank - dropped below N30.00 mark today - as the price may begin its jolly ride up  , & once it starts, N44.00 will be the bus-stop as we await the interim dividend soonest. UBA may soon be a scarce commodity even Dangote same goes for Evans and my darling MBenefit. As for Transcorp, i see its arrows pointing downwards nce the techincal suspension is lifted, maybe N3.50 may be the stop gap point They need to show us how they have performed, the IPO was 36.2% subscribed not to talk of its gearing status! 


MARKET UPDATE
The bears continue to hold sway at the equities market for the 9th consecutive trading day as the All-Share Index further dipped (returning to the 40,000 mark barely 3 weeks after celebrating the historic 50,000 mark attained by the index) as it closed lower by 0.74% from the previous figure of 50,132.55 to 49,761.97 today. The Market Capitalisation also closed lower by 74 basis points from N7.86 trillion in the previous outing to close at N7.80 trillion today.  Today’s top 5 trades emerged from the banking and insurance sub-sectors, with 4 banking stocks on the list. Firstinland topped the activity chart with a traded volume of about 37 million units of shares worth a N402 million exchanged hands in 365 deals The banking stock opened today’s trade @ N10.41 from a previous price N10.41 while trading between the price range of N11.00 (today’s high) and N10.30 (today’s low) before closing @ N10.98 as it gained 0.19 kobo or 1.76% in the process. Other stocks on the top 5 trades were Oasis, Sterling, Access and IBTC.  Stock analysis for today focuses on Access, the 4th most active stock for the day. As the bank’s public offer sets for closure tomorrow. Investors have continued to mop up the stock on the floor of the exchange even as it continues to receive heavy patronage in the primary market, an oversubscription is highly envisaged as its initial public offer was 133% subscribed which saw the bank raise funds in excess of N14 billion. In its offer document, Access has forecasted a PAT of N13.2 billion and an EPS of 1.12 by March 2008 based on about 12 billion shares expected to be issued in an event of a 100% subscription. Dividend yield @ offer price of N14.90 is expected to rise to 9% by 2010 from 4% in 2008; forward PER 13.30X @ offer price, but its current PER of 22 times suggests that Access is currently a N25.00 stock with a potential price target of N29.00 by March 2008. Based on the specifics, I convieniently recommend Access as a GOOD BUY for investors who seek to maximize their returns on the medium to long term yield.   

Regards

@aylala

its good to hear from you again.
i think its not entirely right to blame the market downturn solely on firstbank public offer or access' or any of the public offers for that matter.

the market had to correct somehow and that is what we are witnessing, however, fundamentally good stocks will hold their own.

The market was seriously over-valued before this correction began.

I had 8 diff stocks at sometime in may and almost all of them were doing 5% upwards daily, there had to be correction as some stocks were selling at sky-high pe ratios with no justification.

I see this as a time to take proper position and i am still hoping some gem stocks drop so i can cover mo ground,

@Temmie10
MBenefit PAT for 2006 was 702m confirmed, also 2006 9months result was just over 200m which means they made about 500m in Q4. I thought they would have started 2007 with the same level of performance as for 2006 Q3, but the Q2 2007 was less than the last quarter of 2006.

Don't really know much about their business, maybe they make more money in last quarter In any case, I hope so.

Okiki,
I've noticed this trend with several companies where the FY results don't trend well with Q1,2 or 3. Might be because FY is audited and companies might be unsure about what they can or cannot add as earnings until the auditors clarify at FY. It may also be due to exceptional items. Maybe the accountants and analysts amongst us can throw light on this.

@ Shigidi, I meant I'm not buying any banks till further notice. don't worry I'm not selling Wema just yet

@ayala2002

pls may i know why zenith bank's share value are crashing. I'm worried cos i was able to secure 1500 units d last time they made a public offer.

I wanted to sell it off when it was valued at N64.2 but i slacked then. I do not know how to sell shares (the procedures). Can you explain that to me, please, my email address is ayze959@yahoo.com. thank you

easimoni:

Okiki,
I've noticed this trend with several companies where the FY results don't trend well with Q1,2 or 3. Might be because FY is audited and companies might be unsure about what they can or cannot add as earnings until the auditors clarify at FY. It may also be due to exceptional items. Maybe the accountants and analysts amongst us can throw light on this.

Many things are responsible.

For some with subsidiaries, contribution of subsidiaries are not factored in until the full year statement. They don't present consolidated/group account until full year.

Sometimes it also has to do with the type of business. Some are seasonal hence tend to have more income during a particular period/quarter.

It may also be due to exceptional items that materialises at different times of the year.

Again it may be due to reclassification of some transactions based on the final audit.

While interim result provides a guide especially when compared with historical figures, full year result is the one that tells the story. More than that is the FACT/STORIES behind the figures. While we can throw figures around, you need to know the stories behind the figures to make informed analysis. Imagine a company that made huge profit by SELLING its core assets!!! You will see a low PE, good EPS, maybe lovely dividend yield but for all you know, the company may not be in existence tomorrow!

guys thanks all for the analyses.

@ what price is firstinland going to the market?

Good day people, feelers from the trading floor suggests that the bears are still on the rampage. Imagine Zenith dropping 4.99% to N42.50 today As blue chips stock dips, the otherwise 3rd tier banking stocks like Firstinland rose to its year high today (N11.52). @ Stevie please take your profit on Firstinland (if you have) and ZAP. I think their current earnings might not sustain the current price. It is currently trading at 60 times its 2007 earnings!!! Guess the impending PO is responsible for the price surge. I guess the Full year result for June 2007 may be out-of-dis-world coupled with div. payment, otherwise investors may dump the shares on the short run. The company will not want to raise a PO @ any price below N10.00

@ n.oxide, Zenith with a forward EPS of 2.90 by June 2008 and a forward PER of 22.9X, take my word, Zenith should be back to N66.00 in the next twelve months . My people, i think this is a season to BUY companies coming to the market (for LONG -TERM INVESTORS) @ least your portfolio will be insulated against price crash -- which I see extending to december - - due to a technical suspension.

MARKET BREIF
Today’s top 5 trades emerged from the banking and food/beverage/tobacco sub-sectors, with 4 banking stocks on the list. Firstinland topped the activity chart with a traded volume of about 83 million units of shares worth a N923 million exchanged hands in 462 deals The banking stock opened today’s trade @ N11.10 from a previous price of N10.98 while trading between the price range of N11.52 (today’s high) and N10.62 (today’s low) before inching up to close the session @ N11.52 as it gained 54 kobo or 4.92% in its outing today. Other stocks on the top 5 trades were Sterling, Skye, Wema and Dangsugar. Our stock analysis for today focuses on Skyebank, one of the most active stocks for the day. Skye Bank came into being on January 01, 2006 however the Skye Bank story began a long time before then. The proper beginning of the story lies in 1953 with the birth of Co-operative Bank, the oldest of the 5 legacy banks which came together to each add its unique flavour to the Skye Bank blend. This blending of the banks was prompted by events leading from July 06, 2004 the day the Central Bank of Nigeria announced a N25 billion minimum capitalisation requirement for Nigerian banks with effect from December 31, 2005. The bank ranks among the top 10 bank in Nigeria (by assets) and currently has over 200 branches across the country with a balance sheet of approximately N235.96 billion. The management has unveiled a strategic plan to increase its capital base by $500 million (63.5 billion) to position the bank for competitive advantage in the market. The bank in a statement, said it has implemented a focused strategic plan which will see the bank become one of Nigeria top five banks in five years as measured by size, deposit base, profitability and other relevant indices. Already, the bank has secured $100 million (N12.5 billion) from investors in Europe and the United States as a first step in that direction. The deal, which involved an innovative hybrid debt instrument, was structured by Standard Bank of London and Constant Capital Partners (formerly Rembrand Advisory Services, Limited). The 1st phase of the ongoing N2bn shelter fund is also set to close today. Its latest financials (9 months unaudited results for June ‘06) revealed that after tax profits firmed by 274.17% from a previous N868.60m in 2006 to N3.25bn in the current period, a full year figure of N4.33bn is not beyond its reach yielding a forward EPS of 0.60, a current PER of 29X indicates that Skye could be given a fair value of N17.00 by full year.

COMPARE the following stocks

Security Price Projected PAT Projected EPS(k) Projected PE
Zenith 41.33 26,500,000,000 18.06 228.81
Intercontinental 23.50 23,285,730,160 19.09 123.09
GTbank 28.32 19,000,000,000 20.64 137.18
Oceanic 2860 18,500,000,000 18.00 158.91

Source: IBTC ASSET MGT

EMaachile, u mixed the eps with the pes. but nice report, from what u have down, zenith and intercontinental look like the best going forward, but pay attention to diamond and skye, these are sleepers that will give u as much gains as the rest

Does anyone know about the JaPaul offer? I noticed that they took down the Application from their site. And I am hearing from some people that the offering has been suspended until September. Is this correct?

donne4real:

Does anyone know about the JaPaul offer? I noticed that they took down the Application from their site. And I am hearing from some people that the offering has been suspended until September. Is this correct?

the dealing members of the exchange met on monday to discuss the offer, should still be this september

First Bank shareholders want the bank to keep the full N500B. Do they realize what that'll do to the stock price?

http://proshareng.com/myproshare/portal_news.php?id=2829

Looks like the Ecobank merger is still on.

@easimoni

i read in punch that the bank mgmt is planning to keep only 150BN naira
if fbn is gettin the bigger piece of the cake in ecobank, then the extra money may be justified,
besides did u notice that both fbn and ecobank did 5% today?

Yes, the bank management wants to (and should) keep only N150B. I'm surprised the shareholders wanted more. I think they've heard about Zenith's N250B offer and don't want to be "left behind".

Dunno why the market is responding postively to the merger news. Generally, both sets of shareholders don't benefit equally and the merger details are not clear/available.

http://odili.net/news/source/2007/aug/31/42.html
this link is for the diamond bank FYE 2007 result. Quite interesting.

To the gurus in the house, how many times since their IPO in 2004, has Guarantee Trust Bank had bonuses - and what were those bonuses?

can anyone tell me whats likely to happen to ecobank before the year runs out, do u think they will climb to like 11-12naira?, advise needed

@ All Gurus and maybe Nongurus like me

i saw the results of Nigerian German chemicals, belief me i dont understand those results that much

I simply need an advise, i bought NG chemical due to the analysis wanaj0 gave on this forum at 13.53 and was considering selling some or all this week to make up capital for japaul and Dangote flour, since its the only stock in my possession that have moved positively,although you guys have not said anything yet on both stocks due to non release of the prospectus, i just have a feeling that they might be good

Is this a right move? please i need your advise

Have a great weekend all

@ Stanchuks, no need to post on both threads. your question's been answered on the other thread.

whitelexi:

To the gurus in the house, how many times since their IPO in 2004, has Guarantee Trust Bank had bonuses - and what were those bonuses?

GTB has declared just one bonus and it was a 1-for-4 after the Feb 2007 results.

I think GTB has declared 2 bonuses after 2004. There was a 1-for-3 before Feb-2007 results

Good job everyone. This forum has been quite informative

easimoni:

@ Stanchuks, no need to post on both threads. your question's been answered on the other thread.

thanks easimoni,do u have any info on Livestock feeds,Sterling bank and May & Baker, i bought for 4.30,8.40 and 12.20 respectively and they have all depreciated
Thanks

easimoni:

GTB has declared just one bonus and it was a 1-for-4 after the Feb 2007 results.

omo_boy:

I think GTB has declared 2 bonuses after 2004. There was a 1-for-3 before Feb-2007 results

Good job everyone. This forum has been quite informative

Many thanks fellas, it must've been twice then cos i remember the 1:3 one in 2006 but was a bit surprised to hear they'd done another 1:4, had to be sure about it.

Please you guys should say something about the Eco bank now pleaseee

boy steve:

Please you guys should say something about the Eco bank now pleaseee

The fundamentals do not support ecobank hitting 12 range,
However, news of the agreed merger with FBN pushed the price up last week.
There are as of now, no details of the merger available but we do know that First Ecobank is on the way.

Will ecobank get to 12?
it depends on how good a deal ecobank get from the merger but its not impossible,
i am not sure i would take that risk though.

Good day all. Have learnt a lot from this forum.

Can anybody tell me where to get the Application form for International Breweries offer?

Is GTB still coming for a public offer?

I am interested in buying Japaul. When i checked their website about the management structure, i was supprised that the big guys were managers of different companies and also that the key personnel had yahoo emails: not company email like @japaul.com. I find it kind of strange. What do you think?

Cheers

easimoni ,Temmie 10 and al the gurus in the house,can someone please tell us what is happening to our shares we bought in intercontinental since last year october.Its realy not fair for this bank to keep our monies for almost 1 yr now,are they the only one to first do PO.we heard they are being verified by CSCS and CBN, its taking eternity,abeg whoever knows what is happening should please inform us ooooooooo

We need our monies

Man Jiro:

Good day all. Have learnt a lot from this forum.

Can anybody tell me where to get the Application form for International Breweries offer?

Is GTB still coming for a public offer?

I am interested in buying Japaul. When i checked their website about the management structure, i was supprised that the big guys were managers of different companies and also that the key personnel had yahoo emails: not company email like @japaul.com. I find it kind of strange. What do you think?

Cheers

GTB Public offer. . . Sounds interesting

@ manjiro

I am not sure the international breweries ipo form is available yet, should be this week. Its not at a great discount though, the price is 0.94 on the floor
I do not think GTb has any offer coming, they have raised a lot of money this year, they had a bond offering earlier this year and few weeks back, they had the GDR (at least 95BN naira from GDR) and their eps is still yet to recover.
Rest Assured, Japaul is not a yahoo company. They are legitimate, even with the yahoo.com's

@ Tunjisho
The last i heard is that certs will be posted soon. How soon? i dun know o.
However, Intercontinental Bank's Registrar was Wema Registrars with phone number 012666778 and address A.G. Leventis Building 2nd Floor, 42/43 Marina, PMB 12964, Lagos OR you can contact Intercontinental Registrars Limited with phone number 012771114 and address 107/113 Broadstreet Lagos.