I dont think you are smart enough, if the ACN runs a northerner as president, that northerner would not be able to win Yorubas,the PDP would claim they won.  that why PDP media are asking to run a northerner, so that it open the door for them to win.

The only option ACN can do is run a Yorubaman and buhari as vice president. That way since the PDP would be running with Jonathan. if he is a Yorubaman, he wins Yorubaland and Buhari influence would win the far north any day against Jonathan.  This is the only way to lock out PDP.

Yorubaman/buhari as vice president.

If you run a northerner, the PDP would claim they won Yorubaland. And you lost the election. But Jonathan can not claim they won the far north against Buhari on the ticket.  And Jonathan can not claim he won against a Yorubaman running for president.

The far north would prefer a  Yorubaman against Jonathan
It give you 20 states.


Running a Yorubaman as president, give  ACN more state, than running Buhari
to ba ti win. e majabo si Ore ilede benin, yorubaman yi ma wa kuro fun buhari.

sochan:

My brother I don tire. We are never satisfied as a people. [b]What has Ribadu done wrong for people to start slating him. [/b]I am sick and tired of all these arm-chair politicians that see nothing good in others.

What has his done wrong? Don't you remember that this fellow was Obasanjo's Man Friday / Lapdog - who used the EFCC as a tool to attack OBJ's opponents.

People just don't trust him, imagine his desperation / naivety in falling for Tinubu's monkey banana trick. Definitely not leadership  talk less of presidential material.

@Gbawe,

Well your comments are well received. I have fought these stupid political battlles for so long  to understand that we Nigerians are equally as guilty as our failing leaders, but I am encounraged to see there a few good people prepared to continue the good fight for the greater benefit of everyone.

I have always been a firm supporter of Ribadu's works, and I have never failed to let him know, same with Nasir, and Pat Utomi.

if the ACN runs a Yoruba as president and Buhari as vice president, the ACN is 100% sure of winning and producing the next president.

@Sapeleguy,

even less performing people are celebareted today in Nigeria. Ribadu did the best he could in a jungle of a country. Dont forget that the likes of Ibori were out to kill him

dayokanu:

Many Northerners know that Buhari is the presidential candidate and he is the number 1 on the ticket.

So why wont a Northerner vote when one of their own is Number 1 on the ticket.

Which SE/SS candidate can deliver his state for the Alliance

Who will be the Yoruba candidate then? If it is Bola Tinubu, then Buhari will seal his fate.

The best SE candidate is the current governor of Enugu State. Sullivan Chime is doing good things for his state and he can win in all South-East states.

sochan:

@Sapeleguy,

even less performing people are celebareted today in Nigeria. Ribadu did the best he could in a jungle of a country. Dont forget that the likes of Ibori were out to kill him

This mans role in the 3rd term agenda was shameful, bear in mind he was supposed to be an impartial civil servant. Above all the man is a fantasist, nobody was trying to kill him, that was mere propaganda.

Ochi_Agha:

Who will be the Yoruba candidate then? If it is Bola Tinubu, then Buhari will seal his fate.

The best SE is candidate is the current governor of Enugu State. Sullivan Chime is doing good things for his state and he can win in all South-East states.

Chime , from all indications , is focused on winning a second term as Governor of Enugu. Like Fashola and Oshiomhole, he is probably another Politician not interested in the gamble to become  Vice President of Nigeria , when a return as Governor in 2011 is very likely.

@Gbawe,

but Chime has major problems with PDP, they might choose to oust him

sochan:

@Gbawe,

but Chime has major problems with PDP, they might choose to oust him

That is very true! Nwodo is very upset with the man.

As we speak Chime is still in PDP.

The decision would be made in the next few weeks, So how does that work? Would a running mate for Buhari be chosen from PDP?

While The SW have chosen to ally with the ACN any candidate the ACN supports would be voted by Yorubas

dayokunu, you cannot have two Muslims on the same ticket. And who will be the VP? Bola Tinubu? Any ticket that has that man is bound to fail.

Thats the main question Tinubu would never be Vice to Buhari.

He would rather be a kingmaker than vie for Political post. 2) Tinubu is a Moslem just like Buhari and a Moslem-Moslem icket wont work.

Any xtian young ACN member from the SW would do the trick

dayokanu:

Thats the main question Tinubu would never be Vice to Buhari.

He would rather be a kingmaker than vie for Political post. 2) Tinubu is a Moslem just like Buhari and a Moslem-Moslem icket wont work.

Any xtian young ACN member from the SW would do the trick

Sorry but many people view the ACN as a tribal/regional party. I don't see ACN winning outside of the South-West. PDP will rig its way to the top in the North. This election will be won in the East. The South-East is the actual king-maker. The only way ACN could possibly win is if they pick a young ACN who is Igbo. Now that would be a game changer. Sadly, ACN does not see beyond the SW.

sochan:

@Gbawe,

but Chime has major problems with PDP, they might choose to oust him

I know but dynamics change quickly with PDP politics because of the "do-or-die" underbelly of the Party. If Atiku emerges PDP candidate and it is noted that Chime helped his cause then Nwodo will be prostrating to those he has wronged just to survive - including Chime . We can all remember the cocky posturing of Aondoakaa . Today he is a nonentity beset with various woes . That is the sort of "winner takes all" politics , lacking in integrity, the PDP revels in.

Ochi_Agha:

Sorry but many people view the ACN as a tribal/regional party. I don't see ACN winning outside of the South-West. PDP will rig its way to the top in the North. This election will be won in the East. The South-East is the actual king-maker. The only way ACN could possibly win is if they pick a young ACN who is Igbo. Now that would be a game changer. Sadly, ACN does not see beyond the SW.

Exactly! They actually need to merge with CPC and APGA to be seen as a national party.
We did this dance with Ribadu before, when some of us foresaw that he was rushing off to nowhere in a hurry. Now we're singing "Buhari."
I laugh in sharia!

Beaf:

Exactly! They actually need to merge with CPC and APGA to be seen as a national party.
We did this dance with Ribadu before, when some of us foresaw that he was rushing off to nowhere in a hurry. Now we're singing "Buhari."
I laugh in sharia!

Agreed. But do you actually see ACN merging with other parties outside of the South-West?

Ochi_Agha:

Sorry but many people view the ACN as a tribal/regional party. I don't see ACN winning outside of the South-West. PDP will rig its way to the top in the North. This election will be won in the East. The South-East is the actual king-maker. The only way ACN could possibly win is if they pick a young ACN who is Igbo. Now that would be a game changer. Sadly, ACN does not see beyond the SW.

This is not about the ACN alone its about the CPC and with the most respected Northern politician as the presidential candidate bringing with him all the machinery of the ANPP to the table.

APGA cant even boast of being able to win 3 of 5 SE states which makes them further down in the CPC alliance.

The ACN is a regional / tribal party but it guarantees 6 states with Edo possibly thats 7 states out of 36. If any party other than PDP can guarantee 7 states out of 36 then they can have the bargaining power the ACN has

Ochi_Agha:

Agreed. But do you actually see ACN merging with other parties outside of the South-West?

Is this not what the CPC/ACN alliance is all about?

You all are getting happy for no reason. Buhari/Tinubu ticket would scare anyone into going with GEJ. So far, GEJ is doing a good job for Eastern Nigeria. He will most likely win the East. No one is worried about the South-West, because everyone knows that the Yoruba will vote for ACN. The North will most likely go with PDP as well.

Where did you get your information that Tinubu would be anywhere on the ticket? Even the news the OP posted did not have Tinubu on the ticket.

Which part of the north would vote for PDP? Kano? that had a ANPP governor for 8yrs? Bauchi? Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara or where exactly.

Even Umaru Shinkafi as VP was able to win Zamfara, Sokoto and Kebbi for the AD/APP alliance in 1999 How much more when an ANPP man is going to be President.

If GEJ should win the PDP ticket, what do you think would be the reaction of those Northern elites who wanted Atiku? They can either support GEJ or support a fellow Northerner in Buhari. Regarding which direction they would go, Your guess is as good as mine

dayokanu:

Is this not what the CPC/ACN alliance is all about?

I was just wondering the same thing . It seems some folks may not be able to understand  that , despite ethnic distrust, some Nigerians are pragmatic enough to understand that non of us may make significant  progress under the PDP. Our regional Parties are , more or less, rendered intirinsically unhelpful and "dead on arrival" because of their myopia at not seeing that the current rigid federal structure of Nigeria will limit the progress any region can make when they all choose to operate locally rather than make a concerted effort to grab power at the centre. Why not unite if only to get what everyone wants? Is it not obvious?

Buhari/Yorubaman is a winning ticket against Atiku/whoever, and is also very competitive against GEJ. SW + a large chunk of the the North is enough to get the job done. To be blunt, ACN doesn't really need SS or SE votes to win this election.

There might be some sentiment against the ticket if it was a Yoruba as the frontliner, but that is not the case.

Against Atiku/Igboman, there is no point in picking someone from SE anyway. Also unnecessary to pick a SS guy, since the ACN should be able to profit from a backlash if GEJ is defeated.

If Goodluck wins, obviously no point in picking a SS VP. And I don't know of any Igbo VPs who can actually deliver a state or more on an ACN ticket.

ACN/CPC should be looking at the Republican playbook (rally the heartland, the SW/North) rather than the Democratic playbook (choose candidates in vain to appeal to some demographic that intrinsically dislikes your political party anyway [in the case, the SE]). Do that and you'll defeat Atiku and have 50% odds against GEJ, in my opinion.

A Buhari/Yoruba Xtian ticket vs Atiku/SE ticket.

That leaves the SS up for grabs with the GEJ camp going to be disgruntled Also the middle belt would also be up for grabs

The SW goes to Buhari/ACN, The North would be split in the middle, The SE goes to Atiku/SE, remaining the SS, How would the SS react to GEJ being schemed out? The influence of Oshiomhole in this area can also be leveraged.

The GEJ, Duke etc would feel they have lost in the PDP schemings and I would root for the Buhari/ACN to win the Atiku/SE ticket in a free and fair election.

A Buhari/Yoruba xtian ticket vs GEJ/Sambo.

How would the Northern cabal react to their candidate Atiku not winning? Would they go back to their Zoning argument? If they do insist its an Hausamans turn to rule then this favours Buhari.

Also the SE? How would they react to this?

Buhari/ACN vs GEJ/Sambo is almost 50-50 to be though might tilt slightly in favour of GEJ right now since he has the Powers of incumbency.

Hrm. So let's analyze things a bit state by state, Buhari/Christian Yoruba vs. GEJ/Sambo.

So here is a preliminary guess of strength (red for Buhari/ACN, blue for GEJ/Sambo):

Buhari/ACN
----------

Edo, Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo
Kano, Jigawa, Katsina, Kebbi
Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara
Adamawa, Borno, Gombe


GEJ/Sambo
---------

Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo, Bayelsa, Delta, Rivers
Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Kaduna, Kwara


I have less intuition about the following states, however:
Abuja, Bauchi, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau

Can anyone else chime in on which way the states would go?

Anyway, if this analysis is roughly correct, and the green states which I have less intuition about are split roughly 50/50, then it seems to me that this ACN/CPC alliance can defeat even GEJ (assuming relatively little rigging.)

Or am I off base in some way (too generous about which states the ACN/CPC would win, for example. . .)?

Bauchi might tend towards Buhari/ACN since its a ANPP state

But those middle belt, i would think they would think would go the way of GEJ.

I wont call Adamawa a sure place for Buhari

Still looks 50-50

You people are foolish if you think PDP is going to lose. They are going to rig their way to the presidency. That is why I am laughing. ACN has no contest. But if their are riots in the streets, I would support that. This could be the breaking point we are looking for.

I think you saw where everyone said "without rigging" yet you chose not to see it

dayokanu:

I think you saw where everyone said "without rigging" yet you chose not to see it

I must have glossed over that my friend. However, PDP is going to win the presidency, but at the local level, they are going to receive a big thrashing. APGA has a good possibility of sweeping the SE except for Enugu, because Sullivan Chime is actually a good governor. Hopefully, his battle with Nwodo, makes him move to APGA where he can fully grow in his political career.

Eh, if it comes down to rigging, both sides can play that game After all, the ACN/CPC base seems to form a huge amount of the official population of the country, and votes can be manipulated to be overwhelming there too.

This is part of the reason why I'm glad Tinubu is the head of the ACN.

And as you allude to, if GEJ  uses rigging to cheat an ACN/CPC ticket (representing the SW and North, respectively) out of victory, not only will he invite civil unrest, but I think he also increases the chance of a military coup.

So I'm not sure that rigging is going to be as effective in this election as in past ones.

eku_bear:

Eh, if it comes down to rigging, both sides can play that game After all, the ACN/CPC base seems to form a huge amount of the official population of the country, and votes can be manipulated to be overwhelming there too.

This is part of the reason why I'm glad Tinubu is the head of the ACN.

And as you allude to, if GEJ  uses rigging to cheat an ACN/CPC ticket (representing the SW and North, respectively) out of victory, not only will he invite civil unrest, but I think he also increases the chance of a military coup.

So I'm not sure that rigging is going to be as effective in this election as in past ones.

I welcome ACN to try to gain the presidency. That would definitely cause alarm in the East. Then we shall play the politics of the 1st Republic. Regional parties shall rise again. This is something that I hope for, because PDP is terrible. I doubt a coup will occur though my brother. The reason why I say this is due to the fact, that it didn't happen during the Yar'Adua fiasco. The U.S. will not allow another coup to occur, cause that could cause disruption with the oil flow. You do know that if GEJ doesn't get the presidency, militancy in the Niger Delta shall rise again to epic proportions. The Ijaw want GEJ as president. Ignore them at your own peril.

eku_bear:

Eh, if it comes down to rigging, both sides can play that game After all, the ACN/CPC base seems to form a huge amount of the official population of the country, and votes can be manipulated to be overwhelming there too.

This is part of the reason why I'm glad Tinubu is the head of the ACN.

And as you allude to, if GEJ  uses rigging to cheat an ACN/CPC ticket (representing the SW and North, respectively) out of victory, not only will he invite civil unrest, but I think he also increases the chance of a military coup.

So I'm not sure that rigging is going to be as effective in this election as in past ones.

Population doesn't count for that much in Presidential elections. Vote spread is just as important. Check section 132 of the constitution.