Rhino.5dm:

I understand your love for GEJ has beclouded you, but the reality on ground is that GEJ cant win those area when the election are baesd on religion/ethinic sentiments. This is more reason i faulted Edwin Clark when he was promising brime stone and fire.

Lemme give you a clue, not until now a sh.!.t worth more than Atiku in the north, the fact is AC couldnt even win in his Ganye ward in Adamawa even after his so much tussle with obj.

but what do you have now? atiku of all people becoming a threat to the incumbent president? That is what you get when you are not carefully playing your card or when you have inexperince men advicing a novice.

Nobody is argueing the power of rigging and incumbency, but the work would have been mauh much easier for GEJ, not for likes of northen public enemy number one i.e OBJ.

Dont be so surprise if Atiku will not beat GEJ in PDP primaries, cos i know Atiku can pull surprise having the proper avenue.

This thread is all about tall dreams and far fetched scenarios, so your story fits in.

Common! Dude is that all you have to say?

The only way to treat cancerous growth is therapy, not by denial.

Beaf:

This thread is all about tall dreams and far fetched scenarios, so your story fits in.

Ribadu shld understand that politics under democratic process is different from being stupidly propmoted over and above his superiors int he police force overnight!

even witout dropping ribadu they will loose

Beaf:

The blunt truth is that to the US, the rest of Nigeria might as well be a cassava farm, they really don't care. Their relationship with Nigeria is entirely about Bonny Light Crude and that is what they will act to protect.

I completely agree. But consider things from their perspective. What is the path of least resistance that achieves their objectives?

Supporting a minority president GEJ who has rigged two enormous regions of the country out of a presidency they won, causing enormous amounts of civil unrest?

Or convincing GEJ to step down or taking active steps to remove him, and if necessary offering financial and military support to Nigeria to manage any political fallout that occurs in the SS?

Personally, I think #2 is easier than #1. Or how do you propose the US ensure that GEJ successfully rigs, in the face of the masses? Will the US just nuke them all?   Obviously not.

Ochi_Agha:

Sorry but if that is the dream ticket, it will prove disastrous to neglect the Igbos for VP or at least the South-South in the present permutation. Any right thinking politician should know that the winning edge in the coming election will come from the South-East/South-South.

What do you people take the igbos for, fools or what? Hausa give Yoruba, Yoruba give Hausa, this time around Tinubu this will mark ACN end politically if you ignore the Igbos. Check history MKO told Nzeribe that he can do without Igbos what happened he won but never ruled & no one seems to remember that.

As has been said numerous times in this thread, since no Igbo VP candidate can possibly deliver votes or states on an ACN ticket, there is no point in adding him to the ticket.
So if this election is going to be won, it is going to have to be won without the SE.

As I said earlier, the ACN needs to draw lessons from the Republican Party of the US, who also have a large minority group which intrinsically dislikes them and will never vote for them (African Americans). Yet the Repubs still have kicked Democrat @$$ more often than not (and I say this as a Democrat ).

I have noticed here that most of the contributors to this thread seem ignorant of the power play in Nigerian politics.We have mentioned religion and ethnicity.What about the elites who control the politics in the north? agrred,Buhari is supported by the masses from the north,but will the elites support him? If it comes to choosing betweeb Buhari and GEJ,will somebody like Babangida who knows Buhari has something against him support him.Will a someone like Shagari who was overthrown by Buhari give his support to Buhari.My advice on this thread is for us to not only use Religion and ethnicity,the interest of the elites is also very important and whether we like it or not,they control the masses in the north.

One thing is certain, Buhari will not win aganist GEJ, really sorry for Ribadu, they rubbish him. Politicians

@Ozin,

Despite the Northern elites in PDP, ANPP led by Buhari has been able to win several key states including the biggest state in the North for the past 8yrs. Not to talk of Zamfara, Kebbi, Yobe, Borno, Bauchi etc

Look you buhari is going to be 70 years Old by next election. That why PDP is playing politics with you.

You see Obasanjo Collapsed In a Church, they are sending you a message. 

The truth is if Buhari love Nigeria and if Buhari is a patriot Nigerian as he claim. he is suppose to accept vice president. The aim is at 70 years old. there is no change to Nigeria, a 70 years Old man can make. That is been honest with you. you saw obasanjo collapsed In a Church

Even if he runs for president, he is going to loss, because PDP would claim they won Yorubaland.  and there is nothing he can do. And with yar adua , he lost.

So if the opposition is serious of winning, the only thing they can do is run a Yorubaman and Buhari as vice president. Vice president is better than nothing. If he runs for president, he would get nothing, zero. And he would go home empty hand.
What buhari should be a patriot and accept the position as vice president. 

This way since buhari claim he is  a patriot, at least he can be part of a good government. But if he keep on saying, he does not want to accept vice president, What buhari is doing is Making sure that in 2011, Nigeria continue to have BAD government.


It is a WIN WIN for Buhari, if he accept to be a vice president. Look, what it means is the Opposition is 100% sure of producing the President.  At 70 years(2011), there is little buhari can do at this point. The only thing he can help our  generation, is to help us win back government from this people robbing Nigeria.

if buhari claim he is a patriot nigerian, Buhari has to accept to be a vice president at 70 years old. and give advice. if not they would rob you till 2019.

In my own opinion there's nothing absolutely wrong with having two muslims in one ticket, in 1993 MKO & Babagana were muslims and dat election was adjudge the freest and fairest in the history of this country as alot of people turned out during voting. what really matters is the personalities involve (credibility of the contestants, how daring do they love ds country, what is their plans for this county, hw do they wants to achieved the said plans etc) and not politicians promising us health, education, road, water, employment etc when all this are suppose to be our rights.

There is something wrong in having two muslim in one ticket. You are talking from a selfish point of view.

What about, if we have a christain and christain ticket. Is that Ok by you. You want to have a balance ticket that is the only way you can win. if not the PDP would use it against you.

buhari has to accept the position of vice president to save the lifes of millions of Nigeria.  If Buhari accept the position of vice president, Buhari would smile by the end of the day. You get what I mean. not everything is for the internet.

dayokanu:

Papabrowne, You are very funny, Pentecostal what? In the SW? Look who are the people that attend RCCG? They are mainly middle class workers and executives.

If its by internet campaign and writing articles in Newspaper I would agree with you that the Pentecostal movement might have power in SW but in elections proper
How many of them vote during elections? FYI, Most of those who attend RCCG or watched Adeboye and GEJ drama at The redemption camp would be in their homes on election day, Sleeping and watching DSTV. They would even warn all their children not to step out on election day

Go and see the Agberos and those Lagos Island boys, The balogun market women, the Dugbe voters, the Danfo drivers in Ibadan, The illiterate pepper seller n Oyo How many of them care about Pentecost, LOL Soon you go change from pentecostal to rapture.

To the main intricacies of SW- What does the GEJ ticket hold for Yorubas? At best Number 5 man - Deputy Senate president(SS 1, NW 2, SE 3, NC 4th, SW 5th NE 6th), while The Buhari ticket guarantees Yoruba number 2 slot.

Its a no brainer. Do you think Yorubas would vote on a ticket that hold nothing for them? Tell me anytime in history that has happened

I am not sure Niger, Kogi and Nasarawa are majority Xtian states as you claimed, How many Xtians have been elected governors there Like Benue, Plateau.

Very well said!

eku_bear:

As has been said numerous times in this thread, since no Igbo VP candidate can possibly deliver votes or states on an ACN ticket, there is no point in adding him to the ticket.
So if this election is going to be won, it is going to have to be won without the SE.

As I said earlier, the ACN needs to draw lessons from the Republican Party of the US, who also have a large minority group which intrinsically dislikes them and will never vote for them (African Americans). Yet the Repubs still have kicked Democrat @$$ more often than not (and I say this as a Democrat  ).

You cannot win in this election without the SE vote. Whoever the SE votes for, you can pretty much say the entire East will most likely do the same. The reason why I say this is, because Igbos make up 70-75% of the entire Eastern population. And the Igbo vote is not only found in the South-East states. You can find Igbos in large numbers throughout the entire South-South. They will be voting as well. Therefore, ignore the East at your own peril.

And using the Republican Party is a bad example. Igbos are not some minority group. We are one of the three major ethnic group. And we make up a clear majority in East.

BTW, I am Democrat as well, and I understand the politics of the U.S. very well. Blacks did not even vote much in the mid-term elections. Only 5% of black voters actually bothered to vote. That makes your example even more hollow.

Even if we assume that your hypothesis ("You cannot win in this election without the SE vote") is true, the political calculus doesn't change. Pursuing the votes of people who will not vote for you no matter what you do makes zero sense. It is entirely a waste of resources.

Politics 101

Ribadu failed the course,hope he will learn;work your way up

Ochi-Agha,

You still havent answered "What sense would it make to put a South easterner on a ticket where he cant even guarantee 3 states at the expense of a Yoruba ACN man who gives you 6-7 states for starters?

Even APGA cant boast of being bigger than PDP in the SE right now, So what does your Hypotethical SE/SS Vice President bring to the alliance?

eku_bear:

Even if we assume that your hypothesis ("You cannot win in this election without the SE vote" is true, the political calculus doesn't change. Pursuing the votes of people who will not vote for you no matter what you do makes zero sense. It is entirely a waste of resources.

Haven't you realized that the South-East vote is the most sought after vote in all of Nigeria? The political climate that is current in Nigeria is all directed towards the East. Like I said, people in the East will not like this Yoruba to Hausa, Hausa to Yoruba nonsense. Igbos will feel disrespected, South-South will be disgusted. And you do not want to make the region, which is the source of Nigeria's wealth angry.

dayokanu:

Ochi-Agha,

You still havent answered "What sense would it make to put a South easterner on a ticket where he cant even guarantee 3 states at the expense of a Yoruba ACN man who gives you 6-7 states for starters?

Even APGA cant boast of being bigger than PDP in the SE right now, So what does your Hypotethical SE/SS Vice President bring to the alliance?

It doesn't matter. ACN will still be seen as a regional/ethnic party, which it is in my opinion. That party would probably scare more people to PDP. Sometimes the devil you know, is better than the devil you don't know.

Whats the aim of the Alliance? To win elections right? And you are saying it doesnt matter if a candidate does not bring anything to the table?

Do you think they would be spending their money and time on someone who cant guarantee his home state?

dayokanu:

Whats the aim of the Alliance? To win elections right? And you are saying it doesnt matter if a candidate does not bring anything to the table?

Do you think they would be spending their money and time on someone who cant guarantee his home state?

Like I said, if you think ACN is ready for the national spotlight, you are sadly mistaken. It needs to shake off that tribal background. You do know this election is GEJ's to lose?

Buhari/south east(chris igege) or south south(oshiomhole) is what ACN need to win the presidency, not Buhari south west(Adebayo)

If we agree that the number of votes a Buhari/Igboman ticket yields the ACN is less than that of Buhari/Yorubaman ticket, then there is obviously no reason to consider the former over the latter.

And I think one can make a strong argument that the latter ticket will yield more votes than the former.

@Daroz,

Can Ngige win in his state or win his region for the CPC?

Oshiomhole wont gamble leaving his sure Governorship seat and go for an unsure VP position

daroz:

Buhari/south east(chris igege) or south south(oshiomhole) is what ACN need to win the presidency, not Buhari south west(Adebayo)

Agreed. However, that would split the Eastern vote.

Ochi_Agha:

Like I said, if you think ACN is ready for the national spotlight, you are sadly mistaken. It needs to shake off that tribal background. You do know this election is GEJ's to lose?

Dont you think its getting cyclical right now?

Why do you think ACN offered to be a VP under Buhari if they were not trying to get in the mainstream?


If the ACN had come with Tinubu for president now and just hung on to their 6-7 states then your point would be valid, but they opted to be Vice president under a Buhari that would give them penetration in the North which is enough sacrifice.

What else do you want?

If SE want to be reckoned with much in Nigerian politics they should all rally round APGA and make the 5 SE states bloc votes for APGA

Because Politics you have to bring something to the table

daroz:

Buhari/south east(chris igege) or south south(oshiomhole) is what ACN need to win the presidency, not Buhari south west(Adebayo)

Oshiomhole is better because hè can deliver both the west votes and some of the SS. Chris is a good man but hè is not too politically relevant in se.

dayokanu:

Dont you think its getting cyclical right now?

Why do you think ACN offered to be a VP under Buhari if they were not trying to get in the mainstream?


If the ACN had come with Tinubu for president now and just hung on to their 6-7 states then your point would be valid, but they opted to be Vice president under a Buhari that would give them penetration in the North which is enough sacrifice.

What else do you want?

If SE want to be reckoned with much in Nigerian politics they should all rally round APGA and make the 5 SE states bloc votes for APGA

Because Politics you have to bring something to the table

The North nor Buhari wants to settle for the VP slot. They want the presidency. Being a Vice President is only ceremonial. Why would they join the ACN to become a Vice President? If you can see with their beef with GEJ, they want the top spot.

And the SE is rallying behind APGA. Abia, Ebonyi & Imo is in play. If it wasn't for Sullivan Chime, Enugu would be in play as well, but he is doing a good job under the PDP umbrella.

We are talking in circles and circles, in part because a lot of these folks giving advice here to the ACN don't have the ACNs interest at heart (and thus are avoiding analyzing the situation rationally.)

The long and short of it is that there is no Igboman alive or dead who can contest under the ACN as VP and actually deliver enough votes in his region to offset the loss of votes in the SW. Why on earth should the ACN choose Ticket A over Ticket B if Ticket A delivers less votes?

The ACN would be morons to pick an Igboman as VP, because he'll bring nothing to the table, votewise.

Picking dudes who don't bring in votes on your ticket is a surefire way to decrease your chance of success. Makes zero sense.

eku_bear, you better believe I do not have ACN's interest at heart, because it is a tribal party, and I hope it forever remains a tribal party. I support parties that works on behalf of all Nigerians, not just a particular ethnic group. ACN is nice locally, but nationally, it scares the hell out of me. However, I must say I am biased, if APGA was in the position to do this, I probably would be supporting them like you two are.