eku_bear:

Hrm. So let's analyze things a bit state by state, Buhari/Christian Yoruba vs. GEJ/Sambo.

So here is a preliminary guess of strength (red for Buhari/ACN, blue for GEJ/Sambo):

Buhari/ACN
----------

Edo, Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo
Kano, Jigawa, Katsina, Kebbi
Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara
Adamawa, Borno, Gombe


GEJ/Sambo
---------

Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo, Bayelsa, Delta, Rivers
Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Kaduna, Kwara


I have less intuition about the following states, however:
Abuja, Bauchi, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau

Can anyone else chime in on which way the states would go?

Anyway, if this analysis is roughly correct, and the green states which I have less intuition about are split roughly 50/50, then it seems to me that this ACN/CPC alliance can defeat even GEJ (assuming relatively little rigging.)

Or am I off base in some way (too generous about which states the ACN/CPC would win, for example. . .)?

The way you people make baseless assumptions is appalling.

^^^^ Roflmao!!

@ Dayokanu

after reading majority of the cow dungs writting up either due to sentiment or sheer ignorance of the complexity of the northern structure and political atitude i just have to say you are the closiest and most probably bang the nail in the head.

Presently the only political warlord and gladiator from the north is buhari.

It will be worth saying here that majority of the northern politician are taking advantage of buhari's popularity to get elected in to office.

Infact the reality on ground have it that if you want to win election you have produce a poster by collaborating with buhari's poster i.e with his permission or other wise.

Having said that, Ribadu has/will never be a trusted candidate in the north if you understand the remote connection he has with obj.


The joker in this forth coming election will be BBC HAUSA service, all it takes is that a northerner will just make announcement on the direction the north should take. Shikenan!

Do you know that in Bauchi state, Adamu Muazu could not even win a seat in the election he conducted? Even as a seating governor with power of incumbancy.
i was there, even with support of central government, police and what have you. Even as one of the most performing governor in that dispensation( go to Bauchi to understand what am saying). He was bundle out with his gang and cant even win a sanotorial seat (against a common tout San. Bala ahmed Kaura present FCT minister)

kano is a going area for PDP for sure, sule lamido in Jigawa is another PDP sell out.
Yobe is an ANPP state(Bukar Abba and San. Al-bashir have held sway of the state)

Gombe state is still very complex, but remember the ordinary masses are fed up with Danjuma Goje's administratin
the power to be reckoned with are( isiaka gomna and Habu Hasidu)

Adamawa is still a PDP state ( the likes of jibrin Aminu, Paul wanpana, boni haruna have much say in the state)

Taraba state is still going with the betrayal of jolly Nyame anything can happen Banbaba is known and certified weakling.

Maiduguri conc. ANPP state, infact due to loyalty Ali madu sherrif is having, romours had it that he is feilding his wife as the next governor of the state.

Forget about Kaduan, even as VP namadi sambo does not have clout in the state, i bet san. Makarfi will beat him hands dawn. Not sure weather makarfi will work for the opposition, but CPC is controlling the state right now. yakowa is just a figure head waiting for his time.
Nothing anybody can do about that.
Just like dora, many politicians are now in CPC, it will sreious u-turn for PDP to make it in that state.



The PDP are going to suffer a mortal blow and have the shock of thier life in this forth coming election.

Immidiately if GEJ wins the ticket of his party, the music will change. What am saying in essence is that, immediately after GEJ wins his party primary, the average northerner i know will wear his regional/ bigotery cap and worked for any available northerner.

The slogan then was

" collect thier money and vote for your conscience"

or you see a PDP governotorial candidate saying

" vote for as governor and vote buhari as your president"



I am not a prophate, but i see PDP nose diving at a supersonic speed.

^
No "email" today?

^^ using a mobile hand held device, so apology for any typo!

Nice analysis from some of the guys here!

But much of our assumptions are baseless as they consider only parties!
Who said ACN would sweep Yoruba states?? With Buhari on the Ticket more than half of the SW would vote GEJ.

The strongest voting bloc in the SW is pentecostal Christians. [/b]Their population is massive. The likes of Redeemed, Deeper Life, MFM, Christ Embassy and a host of these large pentecostal denominations are all domiciled mainly in the South West. Across the country, Pentecostals happen to be Jonathan's strongest support base and at the same time are the most antagonistic towards Buhari's ambition.Every politician knows not to ignore this voting block, hence the visit by all aspiring politicians to the stable of Pastor Adeboye. Buhari was there. Jonathan was there. Lots of others have been there.

[b]In a nutshell, a Buhari on an ACN ticket doesn't make any impact on pentecostal christians which happen to be the largest voting bloc in the south west.



In a two way contest between Buhari/ Adebayo(ACN) and GEJ/Sambo(PDP), the outcome would look like this:

South West-      Buhari-  40%       GEJ - 50%    Others - 10%
South East-       Buhari -  10%      GEJ-  80%       "       -  10%
South South-     Buhari-    5%       GEJ-  90%       "       -   5%
North West-      Buhari-  70%      GEJ-  20%    Others    10%
North East -       Buhari-   60%     GEJ-  30%     Others    10%
North Central-   Buhari   50%       GEJ-  40%       "            10%

That would give you 39% for Buhari and[b] 51% for Jonathan[/b].

The North west has Kaduna with the second highest population. First, it has Sambo on the ticket, secondly, there is a massive Christian population in the state, hence Jonathan could get 20% there.
The North East has Adamawa, Taraba and Bauchi. The first two have massive christain populations while Bauchi has a fairly sized one. Jonathan would get a good chunk of votes from here. 30% is fair.
The North Central is the popular Middle Belt. Here, Jonathan should beat Buhari. The Middle beltans are still seething with anger over the current Jos Crisis.They are not in a hurry to see any Fulani man in power any time soon. Plateau, Nassarawa, Benue, Niger, Kogi are all majority Christian states.

Religion and Tribalism would be the factors that would shape the 2011 elections. Not parties! ACN's hold on the southwest is not as strong as the religious sentiments that rule the region. Buhari's purported hold on the North doesn't extend beyond the Sharia states. This election is Jonathan's to loose. Nothing, except some  divine shift can change these facts!!

@Beaf: Thanks for clarifying that. I read through the relevant sections (http://www.nigeria-law.org/ConstitutionOfTheFederalRepublicOfNigeria.htm#FederalExecutive). While you are right that it might be possible to get a majority but not get the 25% in the required number of states, I don't think it is a super-likely event.


@Rhino.5dm: Interesting analysis, thanks. If Sambo cannot deliver Kaduna, then wth is he good for, lol? Also, this cracked me up:

[quote="Rhino.5dm"]
Immidiately if GEJ wins the ticket of his party, the music will change. What am saying in essence is that, immediately after GEJ wins his party primary, the average northerner i know will wear his regional/ bigotery cap and worked for any available northerner.

The slogan then was

" collect thier money and vote for your conscience"

or you see a PDP governotorial candidate saying

" vote for as governor and vote buhari as your president"
[/quote]

PapaBrowne:

Who said ACN would sweep Yoruba states?? With Buhari on the Ticket more than half of the SW would vote GEJ.

The strongest voting bloc in the SW is pentecostal Christians. [/b]Their population is massive. The likes of Redeemed, Deeper Life, MFM, Christ Embassy and a host of these large pentecostal denominations are all domiciled mainly in the South West. Across the country, Pentecostals happen to be Jonathan's strongest support base and at the same time are the most antagonistic towards Buhari's ambition.Every politician knows not to ignore this voting block, hence the visit by all aspiring politicians to the stable of Pastor Adeboye. Buhari was there. Jonathan was there. Lots of others have been there.

[b]In a nutshell, a Buhari on an ACN ticket doesn't make any impact on pentecostal christians which happen to be the largest voting bloc in the south west.

Ethnicity is more important than religion among the Yoruba (actually, this is true for most Nigerian ethnicities in general.)

Given that:
a) The ACN to a large extent is viewed by the Yoruba as an Awoist party.
b) The #2 man on the proposed ticket is a Christian Yoruba

Then your typical SW voter will support this ticket. Of course, their enthusiasm would be dampened if instead of a Yoruba VP, some sort of johnny-come-lately meant to appease the SE or SS were instead selected. . .

Rhino.5dm:

^^ using a mobile hand held device, so apology for any typo!

Ok, you haven't discovered the key that does the highly irritating ">>>" on your "mobile device?"
Thank God!

PapaBrowne:

Nice analysis from some of the guys here!

But much of our assumptions are baseless as they consider only parties!
Who said ACN would sweep Yoruba states?? With Buhari on the Ticket more than half of the SW would vote GEJ.

The strongest voting bloc in the SW is pentecostal Christians. [/b]Their population is massive. The likes of Redeemed, Deeper Life, MFM, Christ Embassy and a host of these large pentecostal denominations are all domiciled mainly in the South West. Across the country, Pentecostals happen to be Jonathan's strongest support base and at the same time are the most antagonistic towards Buhari's ambition.Every politician knows not to ignore this voting block, hence the visit by all aspiring politicians to the stable of Pastor Adeboye. Buhari was there. Jonathan was there. Lots of others have been there.

[b]In a nutshell, a Buhari on an ACN ticket doesn't make any impact on pentecostal christians which happen to be the largest voting bloc in the south west.



In a two way contest between Buhari/ Adebayo(ACN) and GEJ/Sambo(PDP), the outcome would look like this:

South West-      Buhari-  40%       GEJ - 50%    Others - 10%
South East-       Buhari -  10%      GEJ-  80%       "       -  10%
South South-     Buhari-    5%       GEJ-  90%       "       -   5%
North West-      Buhari-  70%      GEJ-  20%    Others    10%
North East -       Buhari-   60%     GEJ-  30%     Others    10%
North Central-   Buhari   50%       GEJ-  40%       "            10%

The North west has Kaduna with the second highest population. First, it has Sambo on the ticket, secondly, there is a massive Christian population in the state, hence Jonathan could get 20% there.
The North East has Adamawa, Taraba and Bauchi. The first two have massive christain populations while Bauchi has a fairly sized one. Jonathan would get a good chunk of votes from here. 30% is fair.
The North Central is the popular Middle Belt. Here, Jonathan should beat Buhari. The Middle beltans are still seething with anger over the current Jos Crisis.They are not in a hurry to see any Fulani man in power any time soon. Plateau, Nassarawa, Benue, Niger, Kogi are all majority Christian states.

Religion and Tribalism would be the factors that would shape the 2011 elections. Not parties! ACN's hold on the southwest is not as strong as the religious sentiments that rule the region. Buhari's purported hold on the North doesn't extend beyond the Sharia states. This election is Jonathan's to loose. Nothing, except some  divine shift can change these facts!!

if you like GEJ then hide this religious score card! If not the bird is going to die before it learn how to fly.

With IBB and co, obj name has to be change for acceptability in core in 1999
( i was there in Kano)

from
Olusegun Obasonjo = Abu sege  Ubasirajo

while an average southerner tends to use his personal discretion for political choice, an  average northerner act like a brainless robot that requires a button to be push before action.

Ochi_Agha:

I welcome ACN to try to gain the presidency. That would definitely cause alarm in the East.

See, this statement is exactly why the ACN cannot afford to pander in any way, shape or form to the SE. What is the point of putting an Igbo on your ticket if he cannot deliver any votes? ACN is not popular in the SE, so don't bother trying to appease them; it will gain you nothing.

Regarding the comment, why should I care about the concern? All I'm interested in is winning an election, not pleasing everybody (which is impossible anyway.)

I doubt a coup will occur though my brother. The reason why I say this is due to the fact, that it didn't happen during the Yar'Adua fiasco. The U.S. will not allow another coup to occur, cause that could cause disruption with the oil flow.

The Yar'Adua situation is in no way comparable to the one in which you propose, in which a sitting president rigs two hugely populated (at least, by the official population figures) regions of Nigeria out of an election in which they won. Latter would make the "Yar'Adua fiasco" seem like a pleasant stroll in the park.
Also, yes the US might interfere, but it would NOT be to help GEJ suppress a coup if he did the above. Instead, they'd use their influence to pressure GEJ to step down, since that is the path of least resistance. This is generally what the US seeks to do. . . take the course of action that rocks the boat the least, this maintaining the very favorable status quo for America (there are exceptions here and there, but you get the idea.)

You do know that if GEJ doesn't get the presidency, militancy in the Niger Delta shall rise again to epic proportions. The Ijaw want GEJ as president. Ignore them at your own peril.

Eh, supposedly we live in a democracy. Whether group X wants GEJ to be president is not relevant unless they can get the votes to do so. If GEJ is cleanly defeated in an election and someone take offense to that, then that is not my problem. In a democracy, no one group can force a candidate on anyone else, threats or no.

Rhino.5dm:

While an average southerner tends to use his personal discretion for political choice, an  average northerner act like a brainless robot that requires a button to be push before action.

Quote of the year.

eku_bear:

See, this statement is exactly why the ACN cannot afford to pander in any way, shape or form to the SE. What is the point of putting an Igbo on your ticket if he cannot deliver any votes? ACN is not popular in the SE, so don't bother trying to appease them; it will gain you nothing.

Regarding the comment, why should I care about the concern? All I'm interested in is winning an election, not pleasing everybody (which is impossible anyway.)

The Yar'Adua situation is in no way comparable to the one in which you propose, in which a sitting president rigs two hugely populated (at least, by the official population figures) regions of Nigeria out of an election in which they won. Latter would make the "Yar'Adua fiasco" seem like a pleasant stroll in the park.
Also, yes the US might interfere, but it would NOT be to help GEJ suppress a coup if he did the above. Instead, they'd use their influence to pressure GEJ to step down, since that is the path of least resistance. This is generally what the US seeks to do. . . take the course of action that rocks the boat the least, this maintaining the very favorable status quo for America (there are exceptions here and there, but you get the idea.)

Eh, supposedly we live in a democracy. Whether group X wants GEJ to be president is not relevant unless they can get the votes to do so. If GEJ is cleanly defeated in an election and someone take offense to that, then that is not my problem. In a democracy, no one group can force a candidate on anyone else, threats or no.

You will be shocked to find that the only part of Nigeria that is important to the US is the ND. If any unfortunate fellow rocks the oil boat by ejecting a "shon of the shoil," we will definitely see US boots.
Without the ND, Nigeria is almost useless to the rest of the World. Besides that, it is basically impossible for a coup to succeed in current day Nigeria.

eku_bear:


Eh, supposedly we live in a democracy. Whether group X wants GEJ to be president is not relevant unless they can get the votes to do so. If GEJ is cleanly defeated in an election and someone take offense to that, then that is not my problem. In a democracy, no one group can force a candidate on anyone else, threats or no.

This is a very naive statement, but since you are not here I suppose you can be forgiven. At the last count there were 20,000 plus militants who have been in the creeks fighting.

No sane or rational person can ignore such a potential threat to the country. You do realize that a lot of the financial support to the militants came from the state governments in the south south.

In a country that has no other source of income other than oil, this is a calculation that can not be ignored. Do you think Yaradua did the amnesty think out of the goodness of his heart?

Beaf:

You will be shocked to find that the only part of Nigeria that is important to the US is the ND. If any unfortunate fellow rocks the oil boat by ejecting a "shon of the shoil," we will definitely see US boots.
Without the ND, Nigeria is almost useless to the rest of the World. Besides that, it is basically impossible for a coup to succeed in current day Nigeria.

Thank you. The Niger Delta remains the most important region to U.S. interest. That is why GEJ is their guy for better or for worse. The U.S. is looking out for its own interest, so it will do everything in its power to suppress a coup or anything that threatens their oil supply. The main reason why AFRICOM was created, was due to the instability of the Niger Delta caused a lot of alarm to American oil companies. That is why they invoked the Carter Doctrine with the Niger Delta.

Beaf:

You will be shocked to find that the only part of Nigeria that is important to the US is the ND.

This seems probably true.

If any unfortunate fellow rocks the oil boat by ejecting a "shon of the shoil," we will definitely see US boots.

This is false, especially if "shon of the shoil" is an election-rigger who has robbed the nation of democracy and is causing massive unrest in the North and SW.

Besides that, it is basically impossible for a coup to succeed in current day Nigeria.

I agree with you that the probability of a coup being attempted or succeeding is low (say 5% or 1% as a ballpark estimate.) My point is just that this chance is raised to some extent, if that sequence of rigging by GEJ/unrest in SW/North were to happen. And this in and of itself seems bad to me.

Anyway, I just think it is pretty hard to cheat to entire regions at once out of a fair victory (some might even say an underdog victory, given that the ACN is not the party in power.)

johndoe200:

This is a very naive statement, but since you are not here I suppose you can be forgiven. At the last count there were 20,000 plus militants who have been in the creeks fighting.

No sane or rational person can ignore such a potential threat to the country. You do realize that a lot of the financial support to the militants came from the state governments in the south south.

In a country that has no other source of income other than oil, this is a calculation that can not be ignored. Do you think Yaradua did the amnesty think out of the goodness of his heart?

What calculation is there? "Hey, GEJ lost the election cleanly, but somehow we have to let him be president anyway!" Should the ACN not field a candidate, for fear that GEJ might be defeated, thus causing unrest? What exactly is your proposal? Suspend democracy, rob the people of their right to vote, all to appease some group? Sort of seems a bit silly. If he loses, he loses. Not the end of the world.

Do people actually think the U.S. care about credible elections? lol You see they supported the election in Afghanistan and didn't do much with the election results in Egypt. The U.S. doesn't care about democracy, they only care about their own interest.

KnowAll:

I would not vouch for Ogun State as been an entirely ACN Strong-hold. They are planning on fielding d guy Amusan who has already lost two elections. If Dimeji & Iyabo defects to ACN then they might have a chance because Dimeji, Iyabo, & Baba plus all other ACN supporters would be pitching their tent against Gbenga Daniel.

But if those duo of Iyabo & Dimeji are still in  the PDP, I can't see ACN beating PDP.

Is it not d same ACN dat lost Ikorodu which is Ijebu in a way, how much in Ijebu proper.

Which Baba are you linking with ACN? Its like you dont know the mood in the SW is to shame all appearances of OBJ.

OBJ can not even win in his own ward vs the AD in 1999 , Yorubas have always gone in the same direction which is always progressive until OBJ came with the PDP rigging machinery.

You know the only elections the ACN machinery would care about in the whole SW is Ogun and Oyo?

Lagos is a lockdown, Osun Edo and Ekiti No election, Ondo has been agreed with LP for Mimiko to keep the PDP at bay.

By the time all the ACN Juggernauts from Fashola, Oshiomhole, Aregbesola, Fayemi, Tinubu even people like Falae and other Afenifere people storm Ogun and Oyo States OBJ, Daniels and PDP would book the next flight out.

Did you hear about an anti-Akala rally held in Ogbomosho which is Akalas hometown? It had record attendance, Akala had to use soldiers to disperse people and killed many in Akalas hometown.

By the time the ACN machinery storm Ogun and Oyo, OBJ would bail out. Yorubas are simply tired of PDP.

SIA (Senator Ibikunle Amosun) lost those two time contesting against the PDP and AD/AC. Now he is contesting under the ACN So the machinery of AC and ANPP are pooled together.

Let OBJ, Iyabo, Daniels and Dimeji clone themselves, they would be soundly defeated

Rhino.

You know a lot about Northern Politics. if you see the way the common Hausaman supports Buhari, Its like a cult.

I saw one poster in the market they had Buhari and they said he was Maggani Fiyafiya, Something that meant Like Insect killers, that the PDP is the insect.

PDP is the party of the Northern elites, ANPP is the grassroot movement of the North

PapaBrowne:

Nice analysis from some of the guys here!

But much of our assumptions are baseless as they consider only parties!
Who said ACN would sweep Yoruba states?? With Buhari on the Ticket more than half of the SW would vote GEJ.

The strongest voting bloc in the SW is pentecostal Christians. [/b]Their population is massive. The likes of Redeemed, Deeper Life, MFM, Christ Embassy and a host of these large pentecostal denominations are all domiciled mainly in the South West. Across the country, Pentecostals happen to be Jonathan's strongest support base and at the same time are the most antagonistic towards Buhari's ambition.Every politician knows not to ignore this voting block, hence the visit by all aspiring politicians to the stable of Pastor Adeboye. Buhari was there. Jonathan was there. Lots of others have been there.

[b]In a nutshell, a Buhari on an ACN ticket doesn't make any impact on pentecostal christians which happen to be the largest voting bloc in the south west.



In a two way contest between Buhari/ Adebayo(ACN) and GEJ/Sambo(PDP), the outcome would look like this:

South West-      Buhari-  40%       GEJ - 50%    Others - 10%
South East-       Buhari -  10%      GEJ-  80%       "       -  10%
South South-     Buhari-    5%       GEJ-  90%       "       -   5%
North West-      Buhari-  70%      GEJ-  20%    Others    10%
North East -       Buhari-   60%     GEJ-  30%     Others    10%
North Central-   Buhari   50%       GEJ-  40%       "            10%

That would give you 39% for Buhari and[b] 51% for Jonathan[/b].

The North west has Kaduna with the second highest population. First, it has Sambo on the ticket, secondly, there is a massive Christian population in the state, hence Jonathan could get 20% there.
The North East has Adamawa, Taraba and Bauchi. The first two have massive christain populations while Bauchi has a fairly sized one. Jonathan would get a good chunk of votes from here. 30% is fair.
The North Central is the popular Middle Belt. Here, Jonathan should beat Buhari. The Middle beltans are still seething with anger over the current Jos Crisis.They are not in a hurry to see any Fulani man in power any time soon. Plateau, Nassarawa, Benue, Niger, Kogi are all majority Christian states.

Religion and Tribalism would be the factors that would shape the 2011 elections. Not parties! ACN's hold on the southwest is not as strong as the religious sentiments that rule the region. Buhari's purported hold on the North doesn't extend beyond the Sharia states. This election is Jonathan's to loose. Nothing, except some  divine shift can change these facts!!

Papabrowne, You are very funny, Pentecostal what? In the SW? Look who are the people that attend RCCG? They are mainly middle class workers and executives.

If its by internet campaign and writing articles in Newspaper I would agree with you that the Pentecostal movement might have power in SW but in elections proper
How many of them vote during elections? FYI, Most of those who attend RCCG or watched Adeboye and GEJ drama at The redemption camp would be in their homes on election day, Sleeping and watching DSTV. They would even warn all their children not to step out on election day

Go and see the Agberos and those Lagos Island boys, The balogun market women, the Dugbe voters, the Danfo drivers in Ibadan, The illiterate pepper seller n Oyo How many of them care about Pentecost, LOL Soon you go change from pentecostal to rapture.

To the main intricacies of SW- What does the GEJ ticket hold for Yorubas? At best Number 5 man - Deputy Senate president(SS 1, NW 2, SE 3, NC 4th, SW 5th NE 6th), while The Buhari ticket guarantees Yoruba number 2 slot.

Its a no brainer. Do you think Yorubas would vote on a ticket that hold nothing for them? Tell me anytime in history that has happened

I am not sure Niger, Kogi and Nasarawa are majority Xtian states as you claimed, How many Xtians have been elected governors there Like Benue, Plateau.

Sorry but if that is the dream ticket, it will prove disastrous to neglect the Igbos for VP or at least the South-South in the present permutation. Any right thinking politician should know that the winning edge in the coming election will come from the South-East/South-South.

What do you people take the igbos for, fools or what? Hausa give Yoruba, Yoruba give Hausa, this time around Tinubu this will mark ACN end politically if you ignore the Igbos. Check history MKO told Nzeribe that he can do without Igbos what happened he won but never ruled & no one seems to remember that.

eku_bear:

. . .
This is false, especially if "shon of the shoil" is an election-rigger who has robbed the nation of democracy and is causing massive unrest in the North and SW.
. . .

The blunt truth is that to the US, the rest of Nigeria might as well be a cassava farm, they really don't care. Their relationship with Nigeria is entirely about Bonny Light Crude and that is what they will act to protect.

They've gone so far as to stage war games should that possibility arise. Thats why for the most part when some "zoning" politicians promise mayhem if they lose, its easy to conclude that they are on the ignorant side of what Tomahawk missiles can do.

Plus, Buhari will ordinarily be the best bet for Nigeria, however his religious utterances of the past and ethnic chauvinisim has always been the general fear that we all have about this man.

I couldnt have put it better!

dayokanu:

Rhino.

You know a lot about Northern Politics. if you see the way the common Hausaman supports Buhari, Its like a cult.

I saw one poster in the market they had Buhari and they said he was Maggani Fiyafiya, Something that meant Like Insect killers, that the PDP is the insect.

PDP is the party of the Northern elites, ANPP is the grassroot movement of the North

can you believe that Isa Yuguda governor of Bauchi state defeated the incumbancy with just mere "Audio Tape" jingle been continously aired on radio FRCN, after the state owned radio refused to air his advert?

Lol @
"ota pia pia maganin kananan kwari"
translation

" ota pia pia does not  waste time on small small insects"

Ochi_Agha:

Sorry but if that is the dream ticket, it will prove disastrous to neglect the Igbos for VP or at least the South-South in the present permutation. Any right thinking politician should know that the winning edge in the coming election will come from the South-East/South-South.

The SS has their own man as number 1 on a ticket.

Ochi-Agha, You too sit back and reason If your opinion is asked by the CPC on whom to present what would you do?

Which politician in SS can even win any votes against GEJ in the region?

Which political structure in the SE can win 3 states not to talk of 5.

You have SW a voting bloc of 6-7 states on one hand guaranteed No one in CPC alliance would ignore 6-7 states bloc votes and go and struggle with GEJ in the Niger Delta

Have we forgoten about the 53 suit cases? Have we forgoten how Buhari jailed Ekwueme and left Shagari? This man does not believe in one Nigeria.

Rhino.5dm:

I couldnt have put it better!

can you believe that Isa Yuguda governor of Bauchi state defeated the incumbancy with just mere "Audio Tape" jingle been continously aired on radio FRCN, after the state owned radio refused to air his advert?

Lol @
"ota pia pia maganin kananan kwari"
translation

" ota pia pia does not  waste time on small small insects"

I think you are make a glaring error. You are very right that such primitive strategies were effective up North in the past, but these elections are going to be high tech compared to anything that went before. Its all computers and a totally different ball game Sule will have to deal with.

^^ You dey deceive yourself, Has enlightenment now touched the Northern part of Nigeria suddenly?

Wasn't it in 2010 that a prominent Northerner married a 13yr old and other Northerners were defending his actions?

How does High tech help ignorance and "follow-follow" mentality, Even in USA which is the base of technology quite a lot of people still believe Obama is a Moslem born in kenya

If the mere mention of Awolowo can make politicians win votes in a much more educated SW and you are mentioning High-tech.

^
You misunderstand me. I'm saying it will not be that easy to tell people how to vote by radio anymore, its a high tech age that will confuse traditional riggers that have zero IT skills.

I understand your love for GEJ has beclouded you, but the reality on ground is that GEJ cant win those area when the election are baesd on religion/ethinic sentiments. This is more reason i faulted Edwin Clark when he was promising brime stone and fire.

Lemme give you a clue, not until now a sh.!.t worth more than Atiku in the north, the fact is AC couldnt even win in his Ganye ward in Adamawa even after his so much tussle with obj.

but what do you have now? atiku of all people becoming a threat to the incumbent president? That is what you get when you are not carefully playing your card or when you have inexperince men advicing a novice.

Nobody is argueing the power of rigging and incumbency, but the work would have been mauh much easier for GEJ, not for likes of northen public enemy number one i.e OBJ.

Dont be so surprise if Atiku will not beat GEJ in PDP primaries, cos i know Atiku can pull surprise having the proper avenue.

Beaf:

I think you are make a glaring error. You are very right that such primitive strategies were effective up North in the past, but these elections are going to be high tech compared to anything that went before. Its all computers and a totally different ball game Sule will have to deal with.

.