bovali:




Observe with me. Note: Not financial advise:
https://www.oandoplc.com/press_release/oando-energy-resources-completes-landmark-acquisition-of-conocophillips-nigerian-oil-and-gas-business-for-us1-5-billion/

https://www.oandoplc.com/press_release/oando-plc-completes-783-million-acquisition-of-enis-subsidiary-nigerian-agip-oil-company-naoc/
Cause I’ve seen so many back of the envelope calculations. Shine your eye. Go back to 2013/14 of this NSEMPA. No difference between then and now.

Mr Time. Seems someone has seen results

naturalflow:
Ymcy why do you always attack any Monika marked female?are you marking territory here?yayira comes to mind now bovi!

I’m happy that others are noticing this too. Like I’m not trying to steal your boyfriend. I’ve said it time and time again, I’m not selling any product. But once I post facts, she’s number one to attack me. One of the reasons I kept quiet the first time but no more. If you give me one I’ll give you 100 so your head can correct

Melcapital:


Thanks for sharing. I did not see the person that way nor think that they were referring to people who actually contribute to the forum, and that's the reason for my post. But now I see through your lens. My post wasn't meant to talk ill about your post either. More strength to the elbows of all of you who contribute from your knowledge and time.

Just ignore going forward. I’ve noticed they hate when people call out the truth or contrary opinions. Then they turn around to say it’s open forum etc. just being unnecessarily silly.

yMcy56:

You may have to get down your high horse sis.
Yes, that's how the saying goes but I don't think there's anything to warrant this here.....maybe I viewed the post from a perspective of you being arrogant or something anyway.

Loud noise as in people posting their views or being active here or being small investors?

No vex. I just don't understand ni o.
You can make me to understand if you don't mind.

I didn’t call your name. Don’t know why you’re triggered. Same way you were saying CWG is trying to meet free float just recently when they already concluded that in q2. It is well. It’s those that blindly follow you I pity. A broken clock is correct twice a day.

My observation so far is that empty barrels make the loudest noise

MARKETJJC:



Eagle eye mama. The person has been watering us with more as we queue for around 5 junction . It is being on last week. After he is done, it will move back to above 6, 7, 8.

I’m confused. Or is there a different free float requirement? Check last Page:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/41925_CWG_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2024.pdf

BullBearMkt:

I can only respond to the last part of your post. I have never lured anyone into taking a position in any stock. NEVER! And I never will I do that! [b] All my posts have been about showing opportunities when there is a pullback.[/b]

Oh no, don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying you’re luring o. No vex. I’m just saying too many people do follow follow without knowing the facts. If after all this, they still decide to invest, that’s fine too. After all, it’s not my money they are using. And no one has crystal ball. If you look at my initial post, you will see people rushing to buy at the top. Just using PE of 10 and their reported last EPS of 6, then one can conservatively assume a 60 Naira per share fair price. But let’s see how it goes. P.S, not responding to anymore Oando posts .

KarlTom:
...

https://gazettengr.com/atiku-demands-immediate-listing-of-nnpcl-on-stock-exchange-in-line-with-provisions-of-petroleum-industry-act/

Can anyone confirm that the PIA actually specified the listing?

Atiku is too funny lol. Politics in Nigeria is interesting sha.
1. Transition of NNPC to NNPC Limited:
• Section 53 (1): This section mandates the incorporation of a new entity, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Limited), which will take over the assets, interests, and liabilities of the NNPC.
2. Ownership and Shares:
• Section 53 (3): This section states that the ownership of all shares in NNPC Limited shall be vested in the Federal Government of Nigeria, to be held by the Ministry of Finance Incorporated and the Ministry of Petroleum Incorporated on behalf of the government.
• Section 53 (5): This section allows the government to transfer, sell, or dispose of shares held by the government in NNPC Limited, which opens the door to a potential public listing. But does not mandate it.
3. Listing on the Stock Exchange:
• Section 54 (1): This section suggests that NNPC Limited may seek to increase its capital by a public offer of shares or by a private placement, implying the potential for listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.
• Section 54 (2): This section reinforces the possibility of listing by stating that such offerings will be in accordance with the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) and the Investment and Securities Act.
4. Commercialization and Market Principles:
• Section 64 (a): This section requires that NNPC Limited operate on a commercial basis, ensuring profitability and accountability, which are prerequisites for any company considering listing on a stock exchange.

In summary, the PIA does not specify a timeline for NNPC Limited’s listing on the NSE, it does indicate that the government may choose to divest its shares to the public through an initial public offering (IPO).

BullBearMkt:

@bovali, with all due respect, there is a huge difference between the presented charts of OANDO in 2014 and OANDO in 2024. There might be some similar sentiment among retail investors, but in terms of 'smart money' sentiments, there is a huge difference between now and 2014.

2014
On the weekly, price closed above the swing high in the 2nd week of June, it was immediately rejected the following week and never recovered. The monthly outlook is even worse - never closed above the previous high (that's a negative signal)

2024
Having succesfully closed above 16 in July, price has since not looked back. Price also overcame a pause in momentum in the 2nd week of August and closed in a strong bull. A price pullback will likely struggle to go below the low of August 2nd week's low (technically).

There may possibly be some pullback, but as it stands, price is targeting above 90, market reactions at this level will determine the next direction
https://invst.ly/16bc4k (Oando MONTHLY 2024 FULL CHART)

You forget that anybody can now use phone and sign up to trade from the comfort of their home. So I expect a bigger bubble. You’re a TA guy, you monitor sentiment. Correct me if I’m wrong but what they paid 1.5bn for 20% is what they paid half price for now for another 20% 10 years later? Is Eni foolish? Read the financial statement, rather than dispute ENI just decided to waka pass. You’re a TA guy, you track sentiment. With more people in the market now, wouldn’t that inflate the bubble? My point is, if the ConocoPhillips deal was in 2024, you will see people converting the 1.5bn usd to naira and shouting the share price should be worth that amount. Again, not arguing o but even from a valuation perspective, I think luring anyone to enter now is a bit unfair

emmanuelewumi:




What led to this was the guy who gave a valuation based on the total asset.


Can you please help us with the current net asset after subtracting all the current liabilities from the total asset based on the last reported financial report of the company.


Thank you

Toluway:
I don join Oando team this morning. B4 it's too late. @25.47.

Observe with me. Note: Not financial advise:
https://www.oandoplc.com/press_release/oando-energy-resources-completes-landmark-acquisition-of-conocophillips-nigerian-oil-and-gas-business-for-us1-5-billion/

https://www.oandoplc.com/press_release/oando-plc-completes-783-million-acquisition-of-enis-subsidiary-nigerian-agip-oil-company-naoc/
Cause I’ve seen so many back of the envelope calculations. Shine your eye. Go back to 2013/14 of this NSEMPA. No difference between then and now.

Mankind2024:
Hi Bovali,
long time! How are you doing? You haven't been active lately?
Hope you are not being silenced by NSEMPA trolls?
The S&P is now on steroids, I mean, the Kamala Harris-induced steroids. I sense a conspiracy against DT by the Reserve Bank for the imminent rate cut, which is fueling the raging bull. August 28th is D-day; NVIDIA's Q2 report is anticipated, and the microphone will be dropped. The greatest earnings in the history of quoted companies since the market's creation are expected. The world will stand up for NVIDIA. Hope you've been able to re-enter. I was almost tempted but remained resolute due to the hard experience I had during the pandemic when I jumped out of the market too early. My decision to remain in the market is paying off now; my $12,500 paper loss is now $3,500 paper gain. I'm ready and prepared for another red day, which is unlikely. The worst is over for the S&P 500 and the magnificent 7 stocks. The recovery is heading hyperbolic.
Similarly, from today's activities, the NGX appears to have incurred the worst of stagnancy and declines and may be prime for a rebound in the coming days due to the imminent rate cut in the US, the positive effect will surely reflect on the Nigerian bourse.

I’ve been silenced. I don’t like stress jare. We will see ourselves end of quarter

Mankind2024:
Hello Bovali, my digital queen. I hope you're doing well. How is your S&P 500 investment faring? I'm finding the market to be quite unpredictable at the moment. Nevertheless, I remain optimistic about the future, especially if Kamala Harris were to win the US presidential election. Wishing you a wonderful day ahead.

bovali:

Sorry for the late response. Had to break it down so you understand what I mean.
By understanding options data, you’re able to predict to an 87% rate the price movement of us stocks. At the moment for Sp500, it has strong support of 5,300, but models are pointing to a tag of 5600 before any retracements.

Section 1: The Derivatives & Options Markets

**The Derivatives Market**
- Think of derivatives like a promise about the future price of something, like making a bet on what the weather will be like next week. People use these bets to protect themselves or to try to make money.

**The Options Market**
- Options are a special kind of bet where you can buy or sell something at a specific price before a certain date. It's like having a coupon to buy a toy at a special price before your birthday.

**Market Makers**
- Market makers are like the people who always have toys to buy or sell in the store. They make sure there's always someone to trade with, so you can always use your coupon.

**Option Expiration (OPEX)**
- Options have a last day when you can use them, like a coupon with an expiration date. If you don't use it by then, it becomes useless.

**Settlement of SPX Options**
- When the expiration date comes, people settle their bets. For SPX options, which are based on the stock market's performance, this means figuring out who won and who lost their bets.

### Section 2: How to Use Option Greeks

**Options Greeks**
- These are like different ways to measure your bet's value and how it might change. Think of them as tools that help you understand your bet better.

**Option Moneyness**
- This tells you if your bet is winning, losing, or close. It's like being ahead, behind, or tied in a race.

**Delta**
- Delta is like how fast your race car is going. It shows how much your bet's value changes when the price of the toy (or stock) changes a little bit.

**Delta Hedging**
- This is like balancing on a seesaw. If the toy's price changes, you adjust your bets to stay balanced.

**Gamma**
- Gamma shows how fast Delta changes. It's like knowing if your race car is speeding up or slowing down.

**Theta**
- Theta is about time. It shows how your bet's value changes as you get closer to the expiration date, like knowing how much time is left on your coupon.

**Volatility & Vega**
- Volatility is how jumpy the toy's price is, like the weather being unpredictable. Vega shows how much your bet's value changes with this jumpiness.

**Option Valuation (Black-Scholes Model)**
- This is a math formula that helps people figure out how much their bets are worth, like a calculator for options.

**Greeks in Action**
- Using these tools (Greeks) helps you understand and manage your bets better, like using a map to navigate a treasure hunt.

### Section 3: Term Structure, Skew & Tail Risk

**Term Structure**
- This shows how the price of options changes over different expiration dates, like seeing how the price of a toy changes over time.

**Skew**
- Skew shows if more people are betting on prices going up or down, like seeing if more kids think it will rain or be sunny.

**Tail Risk**
- Tail risk is about rare but big changes in price, like being prepared for a big storm.

### Section 4: Market Making & Liquidity

**Following Liquidity**
- Liquidity means how easy it is to buy or sell something. Following liquidity is like knowing when the toy store is full of toys so you can buy or sell easily.

### Section 5: Options Trading

**How I use Models**
- I use python to design models which factor all this information to help me make better bets, like having a strategy guide.

**Checklist for Trading Options**
- This is a list of things to check before making a bet, like making sure you have everything you need before going on a trip. It’s very important that you have one.

### Section 6: Options Strategies

**Advanced Strategies with Options**
- These are smart ways to use options to try to make more money or protect yourself, like having secret moves in a game. Not gonna reveal mine.

**Bullish Strategies**
- These are bets that the price will go up, like betting your favorite team will win.

**Bearish Strategies**
- These are bets that the price will go down, like betting your favorite team will lose.

**Market Neutral Strategies**
- These bets make money no matter if prices go up or down, like having a plan for any weather. You can Google straddle to understand more.

**Hedging Strategies**
- These are ways to protect yourself from losing too much, like having an umbrella in case it rains. I.e. insurance

Sold at resistance of 5,600. Holding cash at the moment cause I still expect further correction in the market

KarlTom:
Where is @bovali? 🤔

It's been a while.

I dey Jare. Decided to just be a silent participant. You help, they insult you. Just enjoying my peace of mind. Will be posting once a quarter from now (portfolio changes)

Laso09:


That was a reckless statement from someone in authority. Even if it is true, demarketing dangote product at this point is not the way to go.
I am tempted to believe that a lot of people are actually working against the actualisation of local refining of petroleum in the country for selfish interest.

I’ll just drop this here cause sometimes we’re too emotional as Nigerians. This same Dangote:
https://x.com/emekabk21/status/1814131174253772851?s=46&t=S-fB0C8yRxjxeCDpRFi4rw

mikeapollo:


Good morning, beautiful, brainy lady madam!
Hope you are doing great this morning.
I am just saying ''hi'' to you, from Oando Junction, NGX Avenue.

I’m silent similar to what OGG said. My portfolio is public, I’m not missing out on anything. Enjoy for now

onegentleguy:


I honestly felt there's absolutely NO need to respond to those post.

It's funny that after all these years, someone would still think that I will put out an information to deceive others.
....that's totally disrespectful. This is the height of it!

This is part of the reason am usually reluctant to post classified information here.
I honestly knew about UCAP's 2 for 1 bonus and 90k div days earlier but decided against putting it out here. Instead, I informed some close pals and few of my subscribers.
It's also why I've had to cut down on the analysis I put out here. There was a time I used to analyze virtually every company financial statement to help guide others, but would still receive snide remarks and destructive criticisms from persons who for some inexplicable reason, turned out to be humans.

I may not be a rich guy, but I am rich at keeping integrity. ...I have a reputation to protect and I don't take that for granted.

Some very good and honest members have had to leave this platform (some even deleted their A/c) because of these ungrateful and often self-centered elements.

Well for me, if and when I decide to do things or offer help, I do it first for the sake of Devine who's the giver of every good gift and sometimes because I just wish to "pay it forward"... NOT for man.
Some humans are disgusting to say the least!

But frankly, these things don't bother me.
My GOAL is to continue to grow in the financial markets and also help as many as possible to do the same.

It is well

naturalflow:
troublemaker. you nkor?"oando will not get to 16" it got to 17.acquired assets have being prized in,it got to 17.5.let's just give it up to the market markers of this stock,they are the real voltron(defender of the universe).

Lmao, read my past posts

naturalflow:
EXCUS ME SIR,HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE OANDO TO CLEAR THE NEGATIVE 444 BILLION RETAINED EARNINGS ON ITS BOOK?IF OANDO NO GO BACK TO 12,THIS WEEK CALL ME BASCAR.

Bascar

mikeapollo:


The same bovali has stated clearly that she also bought some units of Oando.
So who is saving who, now?

I exited oando last quarter at 15. With a 40% gain and I also posted what I bought with the proceeds. As at today I don’t own any Oando and I’ve stated clearly why. You can read my old posts. It’s all there in public

BullBearMkt:

@bovali, thanks for providing further insights. These are the kind of data/information that were not in your first post that made it a WISH.

As per the meaning of your original post, since I went to evening school; I simply asked CHATGPT to explain it to a 12 year old. See result below:

Imagine there's a popular restaurant everyone loves because the owner, who started it, was really good at cooking and making people happy. But then, sadly, the owner passed away. After that, the restaurant isn't as good anymore. It's kind of like the restaurant "died" because it's no longer the special place it used to be. That's what's being said about this company. It was great when the founder was around, but now it's not the same and isn't doing well anymore.

I will be more detailed next time. Thanks . Didn't even reason it like that before. I love this forum, iron truly sharpen iron. Lots of bright minds to learn from here.

BullBearMkt:

...the person you are trying to defend is also guilty of what you are accusing @iHaveMadeiT2 for. Saying that a company is dead due to the founder's demise, without any data/information to back the claim up is like a wish, which @iHaveMadeiT2 is trying to pray not to come to pass.

Please o, I didn’t say it’s dead because the founder is dead. The founder was a very intelligent woman. But even when she was alive, the company had serious debt issues which they are struggling with now. I ignored the “not God” comment cause I’ve decided not to be emotional again on this thread. After all, it’s not my money they are using to trade.

I’m happy he did DD and saw that they have lost assets. Thank me later.

Further DD adviced

megawealth01:


We still dey the boat... On GOD

This one, I know on good authority, is a dead company now. Hasn’t been the same since the founder died.

DD advised

onegentleguy:


https://nairametrics.com/2024/07/10/access-holdings-explains-why-its-issued-shares-price-is-higher-than-market-price/

Aig-Imoukhuede noted, "There are certain things I look at when investing in a business or considering an investment. When evaluating a business, if the business’s annual earnings run rate matches the amount I invested, I consider it a strong indicator.”
"Currently, the analysis shows a potential earnings value of about 17 naira per share, with a trading price of around 19.75 naira per share. This is not a bank that needs further reinvestment to make that money, meaning it won’t seek additional capital that could dilute its earnings.”

This is broadly in line with my assertion. (see parts in bold.... think through the connection)

That said, Mr AIG should've also told us that a key reason for the price disparity between the RI offer and market peg is the intent to create weak apathy on existing shareholders.
As I said before; they don't necessarily need our money hence the "discouraging atmosphere" or lack of incentive to exercise one's rights.
...the probability that the group already has the required RI funds on standby is approximately 1.
I expect the RI exercise to be fully subscribed.

Needless to highlight that ACCESSCORP's FVE currently sits in the range of N34.25--N39.7, with the lower band of that price an extremely conservative estimate after raking-off what could be risk items to the bank's earnings stance (currency risk, minor dilution risk from the rights exercise and WC risk in view of her aggressive expansion drive) and assuming just 10% QoQ GM down to YE, 2024.
....*U*... HOLD!

Technically, price has since moved from our initial call @ N17.25 previously touching riding to near N20 before retracing backwards. The aim is to complete the effective breakout from what was previously a PRL to a demand zone.
Though yet to touch our swing target of N21, the chat is now better "shaped". ...I like what I see!

CAVEAT: Still NOT an investment advice. ...the need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

I have a crush on your brain

ositadima1:


Oga, even you have your strengths and weaknesses. If you come here and claim to know 92% of all existing strategies, I'll call bullshit.

Please show us where the person said they know all strategies. I’ll be waiting

emmanuelewumi:



Na wa for you, joining NSEMPA few months ago does not mean the person started investing few months ago.

bovali:


I’m not sharing portfolio again.
Make nobody send me mail. If you have question ask me here

That’s why I said nobody should dm me. If you have questions, ask it here. I don’t want anybody’s money. I’m not charging any fee. I’m here to learn and share what I know. One person can’t have it all. Only reason I shared my portfolio (which in a way i regret now) was because street investor kept quoting all my posts with share your own, share your own. I probably was emotional at the time, but it got to me.

Adinije:
Pls, how did u do the 3500 subscription? My owning is showing $13 monthly

I always wait for promotions before I buy. Cause it’s them looking for money. There’s no app that won’t give you discount, just download it and use it for two week minimum, and they will try to convince you to pay cheaper. Even LinkedIn. Chat gpt that is 20 us a month, I pay just 6 dollars monthly

cocolacec:


Thanks .What about US stocks,i need other options from trove,chaka and bamboo.

I use IB - https://www.interactivebrokers.com/ although I’m not sure they allow Nigerians. I had to by pass it by using my friends utility bill and set my country to Ghana.

megawealth01:


They will with time... Build your wealth with Access my guy

DYOR

Hmm

cocolacec:


Which investmemt app do you use from Nigeria?

https://trade.investnow.ng/customers/ - for trading

Investing.com - Analysis (This cost me 3,500 Naira a month). Cause it’s a fast way to get some information I need.

https://ngxgroup.com/ - For corporate actions, disclosures, financial statements etc