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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model (21580 Views)
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Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by dayokanu(m): 10:03pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
danjohn: No way they would lose the popular votes APC gets NW,NE and SW by good margins theres no way Jonathan can upturn that from SS and SE alone From your numbers you are discounting that Jonathans number in the SW would reduce while the APC number would increase significantly. Give APC the standard 60-70% votes from the SW and lets see what the model would look like now Also consider borderline states like Kwara, Kogi, Taraba, Nasarawa and imagine what would happen if ACN side of it joins to rally voters there. the only sure states are SS and SE In the 2011 numbers if SW supported Buhari en masse and delivered votes for him. Remove that number from Jonathan and add it to Buhari and see what would happen 2 Likes |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Afam4eva(m): 10:06pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
Buhari has learned his lessons from previous elections where he had a huge following in the North but an abysmal showing in the south. Though things got better in every election and he came closer in the last one. He may also come closer but not nick it if he doesn't spread his hands across the Niger and the SS states. The SW and the North where he got bulk of his votes cannot win him an election. he has to go to Jonathan's base which is the SS and SE because if Jonathan can retain the votes he stole from Buhari in the North and his SS and SE votes which he's most likely to do in 2015, then it will just be back to square for Buhari. I guess he's gonna pick a SW candidate as his vice and most likely it will be Fashola. Fashola may be a good administrator but does not have a large following. Though the ACN magic will come into play but the figures that will result from that will not even be up to 10% of what Buhari got from the North the last time. I will most likely be voting Buhari in 2015, not because he's the best candidate or most educated but because he's a maverick. he presents something different. I see him taking a different course of action should he get there. Though i don't know where this course of action will lead to. It only remains to be seen. 1 Like |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by AGBORMAN1(m): 10:08pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
holahabib: Look guys APC should just do this and its all over for PDP: Buhari For President? Never Again. You have not taken your PILLS today..... 3 Likes |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by mrjingles(m): 10:09pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
Let me see.... Buhari will insist on being the alpha and omega of the party, insist on not only being the presidential candidate but also present a shortlist of vp candidates for "selection" Tinubu and his gang will shout nay! and Buhari will pull out based on "principle" and the yahoo yahoo merger will collapse. The tinubu gang will decide to "deal" with him by overtly campaigning for whatever is left of the party after cpc jumps ship but will quietly work with pdp and you know who will win again. 2 Likes |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by dayokanu(m): 10:10pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
Afam4eva: Buhari has learned his lessons from previous elections where he had a huge following in the North but an abysmal showing in the south. Though things got better in every election and he came closer in the last one. He may also come closer but not nick it if he doesn't spread his hands across the Niger and the SS states. The SW and the North where he got bulk of his votes cannot win him an election. he has to go to Jonathan's base which is the SS and SE because if Jonathan can retain the votes he stole from Buhari in the North and his SS and SE votes which he's most likely to do in 2015, then it will just be back to square for Buhari. I guess he's gonna pick a SW candidate as his vice and most likely it will be Fashola. Fashola may be a good administrator but does not have a large following. Though the ACN magic will come into play but the figures that will result from that will not even be up to 10% of what Buhari got from the North the last time. The difference is that Buhari didnt win ANY single state in the SW If Buhari can bring the Tinubu and ACN machinery into it, and they deliver Now tell me what permutation would make him not win (Assuming ACN delivers all their state majority votes to Buhari-APC) 2 Likes |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Afam4eva(m): 10:11pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
dayokanu:If Buharu wins the SW, it will bring him closer but not win it for him. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by danny301: 10:11pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
MAYOWAAK: 12 Reasons why The New Party APC May Not Be The CHANGE:I beg to disagree with u ....See reasons below: 1. That one was once a member of PDP does not automatically make him a bad person... The problem is not just with individuals but the system... If the opposition party can create a better system, things will definitely be better. 2. CPC, ACN, ANPP&APGA could be regional parties before but with merging it's nothing less than a national party. 3.All Political parties are formed for the purpose of winning elections, except you are talking abt pressure groups, hence there is nothing wrong with APC wanting to win elections.... We know the states that are being governed by APC and i don't think they are doing too bad compared to PDP States, so i feel it's outrageous to say they only want to win election. 4.Too many cooks don't necessarily spoil food, what spoils food is misunderstanding among the cooks, with good understanding many cooks can come up with better food. 5. PDP is sure a national party but not the only national party, APC is now a national party in every sense of it. 6. If you are talking about war within the Party then PDP stands no chance chance because the war in the party (PDP) is too pronounced. 7.I don't really know how ego/pride comes to play here, but i know that issue of ego/pride is not just a problem with APC but with humanity as a whole. 8.All the parties that formed APC had better internal democracy than PDP.. We all know that PDP do selections rather than elections. 9.APC did not ask PDP to go to sleep, they are asking for a credible election. 10. Most of they members might be criminals under PDP, and most of the present members of PDP are still criminals, so which one do you prefer, the one who was a criminal or the one who is a criminal? 11.The present APC have Governors in most of the zones, and the may improve on that because the largest room in life, is the room for improvement. 12.The era of money politics passing in Nigeria, The Nigeria of 2015 will definitely not be the same as the Nigeria of 2007, or even 2011. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by idirect(m): 10:14pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
wesley80: Some Nigerians really can be unbelievably stuupid! I can't believe supposedly educated folks are still rooting for Buhari even in the face of a landmark merger that should ordinarily present a platform for some kind of political revolution. What is wrong with us? How's a seventy something year old barely literate retired army General who blamed a "PDP kamfuter" for his electoral loss and whose most noteworthy accomplishment as a Head of state was being a ball-less figurehead while his second in command ran the show, the best a supposedly educated well meaning Nigerian can propose? I just don't get it.How old is NELSON MADELA when he was the president of SA ![]() 1 Like |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Nobody: 10:15pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
wesley80: You are a religious and ethnic bigot roaming around nairaland for no other purpose other than to bury your head in the sand and hope for the best. If you continue to do something and fail each time you do it, why not just try something else? I use that analogy to compare PDP to any other major political parties in Nigeria. The moment we throw bigotry out of the window, Nigeria will start to achieve greatness. 1 Like |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by badassnigga(m): 10:15pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
DANILSA: WHO IS BUHARI?how dumb ![]() ![]() go ask ur president 1 Like |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by eldoradoxx: 10:15pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
Wadeoye:The Nigerian political map was redrawn after the last election! What I observed is that when election approaches an average Nigerian falls back to ethnic and religious sentiment as the major factor to dtermine whom to vote. If u observe the last presidential election result well agin u would understand why GEJ won. South East, south south and south west (except Ekiti) was swept by PDP, despite the fact that opposition controlled the entire South west, Edo, Imo, Anambra. In the North Buhari swept the entire core North except Adamawa state whereas the Northern minorities in North Central who would rather vote a Southerner than an Hausa Fulani Muslim voted GEJ. Has this trends changed? NO! If APC routes for Buhari who unarguably is the most popular person that stands a good chance, then same voting trends of 2011 elections would likely repeat. Tinubu/ Fashola stil lacks the Awolowo kind of clouth to bring the entire votes of South West to support Buhari even though SW has always politically. Preferred being in oppposition. Same with APGA's Imo and Anambra governors, even Edo state. South East and South South and North Central are PDP sure bankers any day any time. So APC has got a lot to do to change the impression people have of it. Most of us stil see the ANc,Apga,Anpp,cpc in them despite the vagaries of nomenclature they now use. Its like the proverbial voice of Jacob, body of Esau 2 Likes |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Nobody: 10:16pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
flops: How come no one has mentioned the CBN governor, Sanusi Lamido as a potential candidate?U DEY CRA*ZE, I*DIOT |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by vicope: 10:16pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
9ja_I_hail:I seriously do not see any reasonable point you have made in your comment vis-a-vis mine. I would rate ur IQ 20/100. Am I not generous? ![]() 1 Like |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by dulphines: 10:16pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
After all these analysis, is it nt me that would announce the result? Beni! Those who thnk otherwise would get their advocates and spend their time and money, while we will spend their money and resources from Aso Rock and enjoy adjournments from our main guys (Judges). Nna me-e-en, life sweet oh! For those of una wey dey pray make we plan crash, no worry; there'l be no travels. Our PAs and SAs will do that. ONE NIGERIA Walahi! #No be me oh, just read the minds of the big boys# |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by OAM4J: 10:18pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
AjanleKoko: Dont think it will be so difficult to dislodge PDP if APC stay focused and not allow personal interest to overshadow their collective interest. Also I foresee GEJ going for 2nd term, this will cause some disaffection even at many quarters among PDP. GEJ can only count on SS and SE, most of PDP NC support will shift base. The only miracle for PDP is for GEJ to deliver extraordinarily in his remaining 2 years... difficult but not impossible, But then as they say, a day is too long in politics. 1 Like |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by fkaz(m): 10:21pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
Ebele won south west south south, south east and north central, in the last election. But if he contest in 2015, he can only win south and south east this time around 2 Likes |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Nobody: 10:21pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
Wadeoye: Pls, ask him where the 70m+ came from. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by OAM4J: 10:25pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
mrjingles: Let me see.... Buhari will insist on being the alpha and omega of the party, insist on not only being the presidential candidate but also present a shortlist of vp candidates for "selection" Tinubu and his gang will shout nay! and Buhari will pull out based on "principle" and the yahoo yahoo merger will collapse. The tinubu gang will decide to "deal" with him by overtly campaigning for whatever is left of the party after cpc jumps ship but will quietly work with pdp and you know who will win again. Having lost 3 times, the realization that he can not do/win it alone and with his commitment to the merger, I doubt the scenario you painted above will be played out. If you listen to him recently, he has been speaking more as a politician than as an ex military man. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by jmaine: 10:26pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
All said and done . . .GEJ or not , Buhari can never ever win the 2015 poll . . . . . Defeating Buhari candidacy is the easiest obstacle the PDP has in clinching the 2015 mantle . . . . 1 Like |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by wesley80(m): 10:27pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
payless: ^ The moment we throw common sense and purpose into the head of Nigeria youths, Nigeria will make progress. I can't believe young folks are rooting for the same set of people that are responsible for the nations current state. Buhari, Shekarau, Rochas? Seriously is this the best you guys can dream? Call me a bigot or whatever you like but as long as the best you can wish for your country is Buhari, then I stand head, shoulders and feet above you. 2 Likes |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by kutchs: 10:32pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
idirect:Who is this Arrow comparing mentioning Buhari in the same sentence with Mandela? Pls dont insult the Madiba. 2 Likes |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by ritux: 10:37pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
Selecting a presidential candidate will be the beginning of chaos in the new party. All these buhari fanatics think Tinubu will fold his big hands and allow Buhari to be President abi! Secondly, ACN and APGA(minority) do not believe power must go to the North because that is a PDP thing (zoning) The only way the merger may work is if they can bring a popular credible human being (not Buhari). In fact no need to waste time PDP will not release power certainly not in the next 4 elections. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by aieromon(m): 10:37pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
In your projection,I hope you factor in how to appeal to the masses to come out and vote. I went out to vote in 2011 for and all the noisemakers voted on social media. I met people on the line who didn't have any idea of what they were doing other than to stamp umblerra or buloom. These people don't care about anything but how to make the next meal. We have access to information and knowledge that can create a change but we do so from the comfort of our living room on election day. Where will you analysts be on election day? Probably on Nairaland running more analysis and projection. The grassroots is a very important determinant and he who controls them will have access to rigging/winning without any difficulty. As long as Oshomiole won Edo State and Anenih down to his L.G.A, nothing is impossible. PDP does not have time to claim urban centres because they know the noisemakers won't come out to vote. They go to the hinterland and appeal to the villagers,the people who don't care who wins. Sorry for the rant. 1 Like |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Nobody: 10:37pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
wesley80:God bless you. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Gayigaskia(m): 10:38pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
This merger the way i am hearing is not over yet. There many unhappy PDP big wigs who could switch to Buhari by the time it is all over. Namely those who can' t stand the fact that GEJ will contest again in 2015. Also i think this time around INEC has all the leadership it neede to run credible elections if i' am not mistaken by the honesty of Jega. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by ritux: 10:39pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
jmaine: All said and done . . .GEJ or not , Buhari can never ever win the 2015 poll . . . . . 1 million percent on point. Gbam!!! Shey una dey hear. No say we no tell una (buhari foot soldiers) |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by danjohn: 10:43pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
dayokanu: Dayokanu, please play with the model. If Jonathan gets 97& or 98% of the votes in the SS and SE as he did in 2011, and if voter turnout in those two regions are the same as they were in 2011, it will be impossible for him to lose the election. That being said, Jonathan won the SS and SE by astronomical margins because the opposition did not campaign there. In Nigeria, it is easier to rig an election when your opponent has no supporters on ground to cry foul. GEJ has been a disappointing president and I am sure that 15% - 20% of SS and SE voters will vote for another candidate if that candidate states his or her case. Please remember that in an election where the popular vote determines the winner you do not ignore any voter. 1 Like |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by ogorsunday(m): 11:04pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
they want to steal more money again after all they have stole from state gov. they want to join hand together proceed to FG to steal the remaining oil fund. dem no go succeed |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by ludot(m): 11:10pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
wesley80: Some Nigerians really can be unbelievably stuupid! I can't believe supposedly educated folks are still rooting for Buhari even in the face of a landmark merger that should ordinarily present a platform for some kind of political revolution. What is wrong with us? How's a seventy something year old barely literate retired army General who blamed a "PDP kamfuter" for his electoral loss and whose most noteworthy accomplishment as a Head of state was being a ball-less figurehead while his second in command ran the show, the best a supposedly educated well meaning Nigerian can propose? I just don't get it. If you call supporters of Buhari, 'legions of ediots'. What will you call yourself that resorted to name calling on a forum where everyone else is making sensible contributions. It is people like you that get voted into the senate and be throwing chairs when they get there. 1 Like |
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