danjohn:

You can do that when you have an electoral college that is winner take all. However, in Nigeria you need to win the popular vote. APC needs votes from everywhere including the SS and SE if not they will lose.

holahabib: Look guys APC should just do this and its all over for PDP:

President: Buhari

Vice President: Adams Oshiomole

Senate President: Babatunde Fashola

House of Rep Leader: Rochas Okorocha OR Shekarau

PDP will be dead and Nigeria will be one of the developed countries in 12years.

Afam4eva: Buhari has learned his lessons from previous elections where he had a huge following in the North but an abysmal showing in the south. Though things got better in every election and he came closer in the last one. He may also come closer but not nick it if he doesn't spread his hands across the Niger and the SS states. The SW and the North where he got bulk of his votes cannot win him an election. he has to go to Jonathan's base which is the SS and SE because if Jonathan can retain the votes he stole from Buhari in the North and his SS and SE votes which he's most likely to do in 2015, then it will just be back to square for Buhari. I guess he's gonna pick a SW candidate as his vice and most likely it will be Fashola. Fashola may be a good administrator but does not have a large following. Though the ACN magic will come into play but the figures that will result from that will not even be up to 10% of what Buhari got from the North the last time.

I will most likely be voting Buhari in 2015, not because he's the best candidate or most educated but because he's a maverick. he presents something different. I see him taking a different course of action should he get there. Though i don't know where this course of action will lead to. It only remains to be seen.

dayokanu:

The difference is that Buhari didnt win ANY single state in the SW

If Buhari can bring the Tinubu and ACN machinery into it, and they deliver Now tell me what permutation would make him not win (Assuming ACN delivers all their state majority votes to Buhari-APC)

MAYOWAAK: 12 Reasons why The New Party APC May Not Be The CHANGE:
1. 85% of them were former PDP members
2. Most of parties in the collation are regional parties.
3. Forming a party just to win election is not the solution we need.
4. Too many cook spoil the food.
5. PDP remains the only true NATIONAL PARTY in Nigeria.
6. War within the members of the merged party
7. Egos, pride, etc will mar the party.
8. None of the parties in the alliance have internal democracy.
9. PDP won't go to sleep as APC would want to think.
10. Most of the members in APC were criminal under PDP.
11. Some of the parties can't even win a state outside their zone
12. Our politics is mostly MONEY CONTROLLED and PDP got the money.

wesley80: Some Nigerians really can be unbelievably stuupid! I can't believe supposedly educated folks are still rooting for Buhari even in the face of a landmark merger that should ordinarily present a platform for some kind of political revolution. What is wrong with us? How's a seventy something year old barely literate retired army General who blamed a "PDP kamfuter" for his electoral loss and whose most noteworthy accomplishment as a Head of state was being a ball-less figurehead while his second in command ran the show, the best a supposedly educated well meaning Nigerian can propose? I just don't get it.
You're smart enough to make projections but too daft to realize your nation has moved beyond Buhari and his warped ideas. Perhaps you're also in your seventies - the only sane rationalization you can offer - and the forceful days of military Generals still fills you with nostalgia - Pls accept my sympathy, but you must learn to dream much better dreams.
Truth is Nigeria deserves better than your mediocre dream, Nigeria deserves better than Buhari. It doesn't matter if he's "the messiah" to legions of ediots, sanity must prevail. The opposition with this merger are on the brink of helping this nation build its democracy into what we all desire and we must not carve out the helm as an exclusive preserve for mediocres.

How old is NELSON MADELA when he was the president of SA

wesley80:
No Sir, I never said I was better than you. You only confirm you're among the legions of ediots along with countless al majiri's that chant sai Buhari even though they were in nappies when Buhari held sway.

DANILSA: WHO IS BUHARI?

Wadeoye:

Where did GEJ get 70 million votes from? You are ignorant. GEJ got only 22 million votes even despite all the rigging and padding of figures in SS and SE.

flops: How come no one has mentioned the CBN governor, Sanusi Lamido as a potential candidate?

As much as some people might not like this man, he has shown that you can be radical and still get things done in
Nigeria. Yes he has made a few mistakes, the 5,000 note problem, but with all of that
I would say unleashing a Sanusi on Nigeria's problems will be a step in the right direction.

Open for debate...

9ja_I_hail:

I think solution to Nigeria problem is very simple. You citizens should stop reasoning backward if you are seriously wish to progress, the comment above shows how backward minded majority of Nigerian youths are.

AjanleKoko:

This is a pretty good analysis.
Unfortunately, the merger is obviously a short-term arrangement, and is likely to collapse after 2015. Else if these guys had any vision, they would work towards increasing their muscle in 2015 (wrestling more state governorship seats from the PDP, and expanding their National Assembly footprint). It's virtually impossible to take the presidency from PDP in 2015, Jonathan or not. 2019 is more realistic, and they have the material to make it happen.

I wouldn't bet on the APC in 2015.

Wadeoye:

Where did GEJ get 70 million votes from? You are ignorant. GEJ got only 22 million votes even despite all the rigging and padding of figures in SS and SE.

mrjingles: Let me see.... Buhari will insist on being the alpha and omega of the party, insist on not only being the presidential candidate but also present a shortlist of vp candidates for "selection" Tinubu and his gang will shout nay! and Buhari will pull out based on "principle" and the yahoo yahoo merger will collapse. The tinubu gang will decide to "deal" with him by overtly campaigning for whatever is left of the party after cpc jumps ship but will quietly work with pdp and you know who will win again.

payless:

You are a religious and ethnic bigot roaming around nairaland for no other purpose other than to bury your head in the sand and hope for the best. If you continue to do something and fail each time you do it, why not just try something else? I use that analogy to compare PDP to any other major political parties in Nigeria.

The moment we throw bigotry out of the window, Nigeria will start to achieve greatness.

idirect:
How old is NELSON MADELA when he was the president of SA

wesley80:
No Sir, I never said I was better than you. You only confirm you're among the legions of ediots along with countless al majiri's that chant sai Buhari even though they were in nappies when Buhari held sway.

jmaine: All said and done . . .GEJ or not , Buhari can never ever win the 2015 poll . . . . .

Defeating Buhari candidacy is the easiest obstacle the PDP has in clinching the 2015 mantle . . . .

dayokanu:

No way they would lose the popular votes

APC gets NW,NE and SW by good margins theres no way Jonathan can upturn that from SS and SE alone

From your numbers you are discounting that Jonathans number in the SW would reduce while the APC number would increase significantly.

Give APC the standard 60-70% votes from the SW and lets see what the model would look like now

Also consider borderline states like Kwara, Kogi, Taraba, Nasarawa and imagine what would happen if ACN side of it joins to rally voters there.

the only sure states are SS and SE

In the 2011 numbers if SW supported Buhari en masse and delivered votes for him. Remove that number from Jonathan and add it to Buhari and see what would happen

wesley80: Some Nigerians really can be unbelievably stuupid! I can't believe supposedly educated folks are still rooting for Buhari even in the face of a landmark merger that should ordinarily present a platform for some kind of political revolution. What is wrong with us? How's a seventy something year old barely literate retired army General who blamed a "PDP kamfuter" for his electoral loss and whose most noteworthy accomplishment as a Head of state was being a ball-less figurehead while his second in command ran the show, the best a supposedly educated well meaning Nigerian can propose? I just don't get it.
You're smart enough to make projections but too daft to realize your nation has moved beyond Buhari and his warped ideas. Perhaps you're also in your seventies - the only sane rationalization you can offer - and the forceful days of military Generals still fills you with nostalgia - Pls accept my sympathy, but you must learn to dream much better dreams.
Truth is Nigeria deserves better than your mediocre dream, Nigeria deserves better than Buhari. It doesn't matter if he's "the messiah" to legions of ediots, sanity must prevail. The opposition with this merger are on the brink of helping this nation build its democracy into what we all desire and we must not carve out the helm as an exclusive preserve for mediocres.