Johnpaul88: I like all the analysis i have read so far. I do not like the PDP, hence i support whatever that do not support them. That said, i feel the support any party is going to get from the SE will be dependent on what the SE is going to get in return. The SE feels that they are being marginalized from the political shaping in Nigeria especially the presidency. They will support any big party like say PDP or APC who assures them of that presidency they yearn for. This explains why they blindly voted unanimously for GEJ simply because he bears 'Ebele' which they thought was igbo name. They just want to feel belonged.

And this is where they will play into the hands of APC .

Make one of them a vp and they 'll never say GEJ again with their mouth.

Can you explain their situation in 2003 with Okadigbo on th opposing ticket and them voting OBJ/Atiku. I think they just love PDP. More than half of their states is governed by PDP

I'm laughing at people who say that the data for past elections are flawed. Which Nigerian demographic data is not flawed? lol
When did we conduct a credible census in Nigeria?

I'm also laughing at some strange permutations feathering predetermined political nests. LMAO.

As for me, the more these "mergerers" talk, the more I'm convinced that GEJ is unassailable in 2015.

Please somebody should tell me what is APC. Is it a drug?

[color=#990000][/color] I'm still waiting waiting

dayokanu: The new Party shouldnt waste much resources in the South South and SE cos they would return Jonathan regardless

If Buhari can deliver what he did in 2011 and ACN can deliver the SW 6 states

iirc in 2011 Buhari won 13 states Jonathan won 23 states

If The SW delivers all 6 states to the new Party It would read APC 19 states Jonathan 18 states. Buhari edges it

Thats assuming ONLY the SW change. Thats why I say the SW holds the key to this election

Given the Population of Nigeria most of the most populous states like Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Lagos, Oyo would be with the APC and they can win the states and the simple majority

States like Taraba, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa that was won by Jonathan might be winable for Buhari with more work done

This is a sketchy analysis

Forget those states in bold. Buhari, a bigoted fulani man, has never and would never win in the middle belt. Tell them I told you that.

X-factoria:


Forget those states in bold. Buhari, a bigoted fulani man, has never and would never win in the middle belt. Tell them I told you that.

But I wonder why people from the SW keeps propping that man's name as if he is new.
Frankly it is shocking how people talk about him as if we don't know him already. Absolutely shocking.

Merger? The merging political parties are not ripe enough to get into an alliance. They have not showed the Nigerian people what they are capable of doing neither have they earned their trust. In my honest opinion, a merger should take place after 2015 election. I think GEJ would still win 2015 election (if he is allowed to contest) as there is no electable alternative - you might have all the brightest ideas in the world and still not be electable. A merger by the opposition parties at this stage is just an own goal, they will become faceless. As CPC, ACN, ANPP etc they should seek to fortify, secure and build on the gains they made in the last elections before jumping into a merger. I see the opposition losing some states and national assembly seats to PDP come 2015. Oyo State in particular is likely to slip from the hands of ACN, quote me in 2015. The math at the moment is against the opposition parties

I still remain where i am and that's the middle. Buhari is still thinking that as Nigerian population census gave the hausa-fulani 29% of 9ja population and population of the north, way more than that of the south, that he can win elections anytime, anywhere, its not so again. 2011, he never did a campaign in the SE and SS and he thinks the SW can make him win 2015. GEJ on the other hand did campaign in all states of the Federation. Now tell me why GEJ cant win with that? Doing that alone would make the people give him support and if he can do it Again, there is no way, and i repeat, no way the APC can beat him. If you need something, you work for it. Gone are the days when Manna falls. If a APC wants a close election with PDP leading with just 0.5%, then they should field in an Igbo candidate and see. Not just any kind of Igbo candidate but a real Igbo candidate with the interest of the people in mind. That alone is a big work which when done, would get APC the 2019 ticket.

Great job with the model, Danjohn. I wonder what the numbers will look like with a Ribadu/Ezekwesili or a Ribadu/Fashola ticket. While Buhari may be popular online, I'm not sure he's that popular amongst the populace in the SW and middle belt. We already know he won't win in the SE and SS. I think Ribadu will do better against GEJ than Buhari.

Genius100: Great job with the model, Danjohn. I wonder what the numbers will look like with a Ribadu/Ezekwesili or a Ribadu/Fashola ticket. While Buhari may be popular online, I'm not sure he's that popular amongst the populace in the SW and middle belt. We already know he won't win in the SE and SS. I think Ribadu will do better against GEJ than Buhari.

Bravo, i love your analysis. You nailed it correctly.
Many atimes, they say SE and SS dont matter, i would just be laughing. 2years and counting to 2015 gan.

Well In my own opinion, I think this APC will eventually wrestle power from PDP if there is cooperation within the house. Also presenting a credible candidate is another thing and we all know the larger population of voters come from the North and Buhari is on ground 24/7 Fashola as the VP from the SW will be another better candidate too to deliver votes from his region. Then make a full arragement for the SE as the Senate president and Chris Ngige is the right man for that post i believe. So if everything is done according to my analyses above i think the APC have a chance. Moreso most of the posters are looking into population of Voters alone but its beyond that. 2/3 of votes will give APC chance if Buhari can deliver the north and Tinubu/Fashola can deliver the west then its all good.

Wadeoye:

Where did GEJ get 70 million votes from? You are ignorant. GEJ got only 22 million votes even despite all the rigging and padding of figures in SS and SE.

The rigging in the north was a shameful one where many televised underaged almajiris lined up with voters card voting for BH, but that wouldn't be rigging and corruption in you guys eyes. Stop crying fowl and blood. The biggest mistake the merger would make is to bring out Buhari, Tinubu or insolent Elrufai as their presidential flag bearer. People are wiser now, the post election violences and BokoH are very fresh in peoples mind. Gen Buhari(rtd) should once be selfless and retire from this his selfish power desperation. Take it or leave it, SS, SE, and majority of SW already won't vote for him.

All is I know is that APC with Buhari on it will sweep the North and SW because SW ain't voting for GEJ/Sambo. SW & North is already a huge chunk of Nigeria . The rest of Nigeria will be up for grabs.

wesley80: Some Nigerians really can be unbelievably stuupid! I can't believe supposedly educated folks are still rooting for Buhari even in the face of a landmark merger that should ordinarily present a platform for some kind of political revolution. What is wrong with us? How's a seventy something year old barely literate retired army General who blamed a "PDP kamfuter" for his electoral loss and whose most noteworthy accomplishment as a Head of state was being a ball-less figurehead while his second in command ran the show, the best a supposedly educated well meaning Nigerian can propose? I just don't get it.
You're smart enough to make projections but too daft to realize your nation has moved beyond Buhari and his warped ideas. Perhaps you're also in your seventies - the only sane rationalization you can offer - and the forceful days of military Generals still fills you with nostalgia - Pls accept my sympathy, but you must learn to dream much better dreams.
Truth is Nigeria deserves better than your mediocre dream, Nigeria deserves better than Buhari. It doesn't matter if he's "the messiah" to legions of ediots, sanity must prevail. The opposition with this merger are on the brink of helping this nation build its democracy into what we all desire and we must not carve out the helm as an exclusive preserve for mediocres.

why are u bringing d past, we have all made mistake in one place or the other. Buhari is bettet dan gej interms of ruling d country b4 u comment pls check buhari details wen he was a president. All i want is a competent leader who can take d country forward all wat we want now is changes.

Wadeoye:

Where did GEJ get 70 million votes from? You are ignorant. GEJ got only 22 million votes even despite all the rigging and padding of figures in SS and SE.

U are too much joor!
3000 likes

wesley80: Some Nigerians really can be unbelievably stuupid! I can't believe supposedly educated folks are still rooting for Buhari even in the face of a landmark merger that should ordinarily present a platform for some kind of political revolution. What is wrong with us? How's a seventy something year old barely literate retired army General who blamed a "PDP kamfuter" for his electoral loss and whose most noteworthy accomplishment as a Head of state was being a ball-less figurehead while his second in command ran the show, the best a supposedly educated well meaning Nigerian can propose? I just don't get it.
You're smart enough to make projections but too daft to realize your nation has moved beyond Buhari and his warped ideas. Perhaps you're also in your seventies - the only sane rationalization you can offer - and the forceful days of military Generals still fills you with nostalgia - Pls accept my sympathy, but you must learn to dream much better dreams.
Truth is Nigeria deserves better than your mediocre dream, Nigeria deserves better than Buhari. It doesn't matter if he's "the messiah" to legions of ediots, sanity must prevail. The opposition with this merger are on the brink of helping this nation build its democracy into what we all desire and we must not carve out the helm as an exclusive preserve for mediocres.

Is Jonathan the alternative?

I won't mind Buhari/Fashola. Buhari to do the sanitizing of the rotten system, while Fashola brings intellectualism to the table. Thankfully, Buhari has a history of giving his deputy free hands.

The snag will however be: Muslim/Muslim and absence of SE/Igbo on the ticket.

APC IS NOT FOR PROGRESS OF THE POOR MASSES
political party is not the problem of this country.
Corruption is the problem of this country.


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There is still a long way ahead. Its obvious now that there's greater need for sacrifice from all parties involved. Rotimi Amaechi is still there,don't forget. Even if APC doesn't win the presidency,there will still be a lot of positives afterwards. More members of the assemblies and gorvenors etc.


GEJ/PDP is gradually losing the battle. Except they miraculously field another candidate,now is the greatest opportunity for the opposition to get to power. So generally,this alliance is in the right direction and should be supported by progressives.

wesley80:
Sorry it had to be you but I just had to get it off my chest. The number of times folks like you either through innocuous projections or outright stupidity have brought up Buhari's has simply been absurd. All these tacit endorsements and subtle campaigns MUST now stop.
@bolded, that's exactly why I said it doesn't matter if he's got legions of ediots as supporters.

U musn‘t use abusive words b4 sendin ur mssg.

For once,I think the political arrogance hitherto displayed the north is absent. They have gotten to grips that they are now in the opposition. What baffles me is the SE obstinacy towards GEJ. Don't get me wrong but that was what we used to attribute to the northerners. By and large,I think the Insult of this GEJ government has made us more mature/tolerant. My only hope is that Naija should not blow up in our faces. We should be seen to be making progress not getting used to unimaginable mediocrity.

I hope Ameachi features in this APC equation. With that,there's greater hope.

The only promise I can make you, is that this party will implode and crumble on its weight.
Just dey watch.

bashy_demy: Well In my own opinion, I think this APC will eventually wrestle power from PDP if there is cooperation within the house. Also presenting a credible candidate is another thing and we all know the larger population of voters come from the North and Buhari is on ground 24/7 Fashola as the VP from the SW will be another better candidate too to deliver votes from his region. Then make a full arragement for the SE as the Senate president and Chris Ngige is the right man for that post i believe. So if everything is done according to my analyses above i think the APC have a chance. Moreso most of the posters are looking into population of Voters alone but its beyond that. 2/3 of votes will give APC chance if Buhari can deliver the north and Tinubu/Fashola can deliver the west then its all good.

[b]I have been spent the past three hours going through the various comments and those who have been contributing simply shows there is hope for Nigeria in the future and yours just caught my eyes.You are pretty funny.What actually caught my eyes is the issue of the Senate President.Have you forgotten that its the majority that presents the Senate President and not the party that won the Presidential election?Its quite impossible if we should be realistic APC cannot get majority in the two chambers of National Assembly by 2015 even if they win the Presidency judging by my observation on the time frame they have at their disposal.Therefore where those it leave the SE in APC's scheme of things?That is one of the reasons the SE will keep on supporting PDP.The major thing this new found party should focus their mind is how they can pull majority in the Parliament and this will be the worst blow PDP will face in new administration that is if PDP goes on to win 2015 Presidential election.It will be more like the Democrat and the Republican thing in the US where the Democrats holds sway as the President while the opposition of Republicans are in control of the Lower chamber of the Parliament.With that there will be real check and balances in the Government in which i believe that is what Nigeria really need now.Any eyeing for the Presidency by this new party APC in 2015 to me is being too desperate and they must be watched closely if not Nigerians will be sucked for another 4 years again.The New party should start laying a foundation for 2019.The problem Nigerian Politicians do have is they dont have patience and they always want to remain in power if not their best bet for the Presidency should be 2019 and not 2015[/b]

teskyg: Am Baffel at the suggestion of Buhari.I don't think he can offer anything.

I'm baffled at the bolded.

You guys are making assumptions here without taking into consideration the most critical factors. I had been in the fields since 1999 election and can tell you what happened in all the elections especially in the East.

How many of us, know that ANPP won the Presidential election in the East in 1999, but was rigged out by the Igbo elites who have a common agenda of “wanting to belong to a winning PDP”? That election was majorly boycotted in the East and the few that voted, who were mainly young men, voted massively for Olu Falaye. That was like a protest vote over the Loss of the PDP primary in Jos by Ekwueme.

The 2003 election in the East was no election. What we had, was massive thumb-printing of ballot papers after scaring people aware with gun-shootings. My old aunt then was crying when I insisted on going out to vote that day (Presidential election) based on their experience the previous voting day.(I always only have interest in presidential elections). Needless to say, that when I arrived I met groups of young men, "doing their paid work". I voted for APGA. I did it in such a way that they all saw my voting; just to hit back at them. Being one of their own, who they know very well, to be ready for trouble; and being aware that my one vote made no meaning; they allowed me to get aware with it.

2007 election, I can't say much b/c I was out of the country. But the report I got was worse. There was no election.

Now 2011 election in the east was a "conspiracy of both the elites and the masses" built on tribalism. The masses were misinformed that GEJ was their own. Basically, everyone thumb-printed as much as he could to produce the massive votes. Buhari lacked the resources to monitor votes. So Buhari need finance if he can make headway in his ambition.

Also in the North, while the cities were "disgracing" PDP with massive votes for Buhari (with possible child-voting); PDP as usual was buying all the votes from the villages and producing massive figures that made nonsense of Buhari's votes.

So what is my scenario for 2015 with APC?

If Tinubu and his "gang" can sincerely commit to the alliance, they can mobilize enough resource and "evil contacts" to checkmate PDP and their rigging machine. Buhari will mobilize almost the whole core northern votes less that of fanatical Christians, believe me. The few votes, Buhari will loose from the North are those that can be bought and those of the elites who are afraid of their past. Tinubu and his CAN, while I am afraid they may lose Lagos b/c of their misrule; can always galvanize Yoruba votes for any Presidential candidate of their choice.

But will Tinubu want to do this and get Buhari into power? I serious have doubts. I believe Tinubu is too corrupt and will be risking too much to allow Buhari have a chance to probe him and send him to jail. The Nigerian elites cannot trust Buhari. They are stinkingly corrupt and will never want their past investigated or their corrupt lines of income stopped.

Majority of the South-south “real and imaginary” votes will still go GEJ's way, come what may. Though, he will certainly lose some, owing to his obvious incompetence. Can APC get one-third of the votes from any of the South-south vote? It depends on their presidential candidate, and how rigging plays out. They can, if they come forth with a worthwhile Presidential candidate that the play the "settlement" game well.

Same happens to the East. The Igbos wants one of their own. As an Igbo I strongly share this sentiment, but also understand that our leaders sold out. I may also not be very comfortable with APC presenting a Northerner as a President and a Yoruba VP. This is enough to motivate me to put all I can in order to stop them, not minding whoever their Presidential candidate becomes. I have always suspected that "Tinubu" and his think-tank encouraged GEJ to do away with Zoning in order to create a chance for them to contest for the Presidency in a near future. Doing otherwise would have meant the other 5 zones taking their turns (a total of possible 40 years – 8X5), before it can get to the Yorubas. It is annoying to me as an Igbo for Tinubu to pull such a fast one on me.

If Igbos can be reassured and rigging by our governors checkmated, APC can get may be close to 40% of Igbo votes. To do this certainly means having a good number of Igbo elites in their midst. Without the elites, you cannot protect your votes even when you have them.

GEJ and PDP played religious politics to get North Central votes in the last election. How easily he can resort to this again depends and the satisfaction the middle belters feel from his present performance in office. I cannot judge on this but it can go either way. This is the real battle ground. Buhari has a chance while PDP has a chance.

Now what about APC without Buhari? If Buhari campaigns for them as a leader of the party, they can still retain a significant percentage of their core north votes. But they will lose the votes of the radical progressives’ southerners who are behind Buhari. This group only motivation is Buhari and not the party. Given a good candidate, they can get away with this, with Buhari’s support and commitment.

Now APC without Buhari’s support is dead on arrival. I suspect Tinubu is working towards getting Buhari’s support while not picking him as the Presidential candidate. Be certain that Tinubu will be the financial live-wire of the Party. It is only the CAN states and Rochas that can finance the party. Buhari cannot. Tinubu is one of the smartest and crookest Nigerian that lives today. I see him the way I see IBB. They are both Maradonas and stinkingly corrupt. How he chose to play this game is what I don’t know. Mind you he can pull a fast one on GEJ. Serious and high ranking members of GEJ’s government must certainly be on his pay book.

On the D-day, all of them can pull a fast one on a “mumu” GEJ. If Atiku ever joins APC “in heart and soul” (though I doubt this, given the earlier betrayal he suffered from Tinubu and lack of trust), GEJ will be goner b/c both “Tinubu and Atiku” can do deals. They can commander even OKwonjo-Iwela to betray GEJ. They have the resources and the patronage to “conjure” most Nigeria elites together in a fight against GEJ.

Remember also that there is another criminal waiting and pulling strings, if his health allows him. He is IBB. He will certainly be a factor depending on how he perceives where his bread is buttered.

One thing that may however unite the North behind Buhari is Boko Haram and the damage it is doing to the North. I believe Northern leaders are gutted about Boko haram and suspect GEJ is using it to destroy the North. They may see the election as a last resort to salvage the North and may be able to concede enough grounds to other elites from other parts of the country, in order to remove GEJ.

How Obasanjo decide to join will certainly help in shaping things. But as a core coward (who hates taking risk based on principle, but likes using power to its brutal end), OBJ may be intimidated to join a moving train, if one emerges. In his true character, even when he hates a moving train, he will pretend to join until he can pull a trick on them. Being out of Aso Rock, he knows how not to fight a battle he can lose.

So a lot is possible.

In real politics, a second can make a difference. What is important is that the players understands the factors at play and try to maximize it.

Jarus:
Is Jonathan the alternative?

Not necessarily, but when juxtaposed with Buhari, GEJ stands head and shoulders above and that's why GEJ won the last election - Most of us that relentlessly campaigned and voted for him were well aware of his shortcomings but for want of a better alternative, it had to be him - Ribadu and the ACN never stood a chance. GEJ symbolized a kind of "paradigm shift" a shift we are about to reverse with this nonsensical call for Buhari's presidency under a massive, massive coalition. Even I, I'm licking my lips at the prospects but the calls for Buhari is making me retch!
One would think Nigerians would start playing with notable, intelligent and respected names like some have mentioned Fashola, Ezekwesili, Sanusi, Ribadu, Utomi, Duke et al but what do we have? Buhari! simply because he controls the brainless heads of millions of al majiris in the north! WARRAHELL. Next we'll be rooting for IBB because he commands respect in the entire North and large parts of the East and I'm assuming that'll make perfect sense to you as well?

karlnyeno: Please somebody should tell me what is APC. Is it a drug?

It's a political party that people are calling the "savior" of Nigeria from pdp clutches yet the members of the so called "saviors" are ex-pdp members that had a hand in the stealing they accuse pdp of. Basically the same thief with a different mask.

Very interesting. I am baffled how so many people, whom I am sure av no voter's card, never voted in any nigerian elections nor able to analyse the votin pattern in their "local polling unit" can make predictions and projections on the outcome of a prsidential election that would be decided in 774LGs and from nearly 200,000 polling units.

I dey laugh, OBJ style

Cabsso:

U musn‘t use abusive words b4 sendin ur mssg.

Ok