Cabsso:

U musn‘t use abusive words b4 sendin ur mssg.

Jarus:
Is Jonathan the alternative?

flexya: Very interesting. I am baffled how so many people, whom I am sure av no voter's card, never voted in any nigerian elections nor able to analyse the votin pattern in their "local polling unit" can make predictions and projections on the outcome of a prsidential election that would be decided in 774LGs and from nearly 200,000 polling units.

I dey laugh, OBJ style

chingyjant:
[b]I have been spent the past three hours going through the various comments and those who have been contributing simply shows there is hope for Nigeria in the future and yours just caught my eyes.You are pretty funny.What actually caught my eyes is the issue of the Senate President.Have you forgotten that its the majority that presents the Senate President and not the party that won the Presidential election?Its quite impossible if we should be realistic APC cannot get majority in the two chambers of National Assembly by 2015 even if they win the Presidency judging by my observation on the time frame they have at their disposal.Therefore where those it leave the SE in APC's scheme of things?That is one of the reasons the SE will keep on supporting PDP.The major thing this new found party should focus their mind is how they can pull majority in the Parliament and this will be the worst blow PDP will face in new administration that is if PDP goes on to win 2015 Presidential election.It will be more like the Democrat and the Republican thing in the US where the Democrats holds sway as the President while the opposition of Republicans are in control of the Lower chamber of the Parliament.With that there will be real check and balances in the Government in which i believe that is what Nigeria really need now.Any eyeing for the Presidency by this new party APC in 2015 to me is being too desperate and they must be watched closely if not Nigerians will be sucked for another 4 years again.The New party should start laying a foundation for 2019.The problem Nigerian Politicians do have is they dont have patience and they always want to remain in power if not their best bet for the Presidency should be 2019 and not 2015[/b]

Godman_n: You guys are making assumptions here without taking into consideration the most critical factors. I had been in the fields since 1999 election and can tell you what happened in all the elections especially in the East.

How many of us, know that ANPP won the Presidential election in the East in 1999, but was rigged out by the Igbo elites who have a common agenda of “wanting to belong to a winning PDP”? That election was majorly boycotted in the East and the few that voted, who were mainly young men, voted massively for Olu Falaye. That was like a protest vote over the Loss of the PDP primary in Jos by Ekwueme.

.........

How Obasanjo decide to join will certainly help in shaping things. But as a core coward (who hates taking risk based on principle, but likes using power to its brutal end), OBJ may be intimidated to join a moving train, if one emerges. In his true character, even when he hates a moving train, he will pretend to join until he can pull a trick on them. Being out of Aso Rock, he knows how not to fight a battle he can lose.

So a lot is possible.

In real politics, a second can make a difference. What is important is that the players understands the factors at play and try to maximize it.

kutchs:
Who is this Arrow comparing mentioning Buhari in the same sentence with Mandela? Pls dont insult the Madiba.

Dont be stewpid Someone earlier was saying Buhari is too old for president. How da heck did that me am comparing GMB with Mandela?

Godman_n: You guys are making assumptions here without taking into consideration the most critical factors. I had been in the fields since 1999 election and can tell you what happened in all the elections especially in the East.

How many of us, know that ANPP won the Presidential election in the East in 1999, but was rigged out by the Igbo elites who have a common agenda of “wanting to belong to a winning PDP”? That election was majorly boycotted in the East and the few that voted, who were mainly young men, voted massively for Olu Falaye. That was like a protest vote over the Loss of the PDP primary in Jos by Ekwueme.

The 2003 election in the East was no election. What we had, was massive thumb-printing of ballot papers after scaring people aware with gun-shootings. My old aunt then was crying when I insisted on going out to vote that day (Presidential election) based on their experience the previous voting day.(I always only have interest in presidential elections). Needless to say, that when I arrived I met groups of young men, "doing their paid work". I voted for APGA. I did it in such a way that they all saw my voting; just to hit back at them. Being one of their own, who they know very well, to be ready for trouble; and being aware that my one vote made no meaning; they allowed me to get aware with it.

2007 election, I can't say much b/c I was out of the country. But the report I got was worse. There was no election.

Now 2011 election in the east was a "conspiracy of both the elites and the masses" built on tribalism. The masses were misinformed that GEJ was their own. Basically, everyone thumb-printed as much as he could to produce the massive votes. Buhari lacked the resources to monitor votes. So Buhari need finance if he can make headway in his ambition.

Also in the North, while the cities were "disgracing" PDP with massive votes for Buhari (with possible child-voting); PDP as usual was buying all the votes from the villages and producing massive figures that made nonsense of Buhari's votes.

So what is my scenario for 2015 with APC?

If Tinubu and his "gang" can sincerely commit to the alliance, they can mobilize enough resource and "evil contacts" to checkmate PDP and their rigging machine. Buhari will mobilize almost the whole core northern votes less that of fanatical Christians, believe me. The few votes, Buhari will loose from the North are those that can be bought and those of the elites who are afraid of their past. Tinubu and his CAN, while I am afraid they may lose Lagos b/c of their misrule; can always galvanize Yoruba votes for any Presidential candidate of their choice.

But will Tinubu want to do this and get Buhari into power? I serious have doubts. I believe Tinubu is too corrupt and will be risking too much to allow Buhari have a chance to probe him and send him to jail. The Nigerian elites cannot trust Buhari. They are stinkingly corrupt and will never want their past investigated or their corrupt lines of income stopped.

Majority of the South-south “real and imaginary” votes will still go GEJ's way, come what may. Though, he will certainly lose some, owing to his obvious incompetence. Can APC get one-third of the votes from any of the South-south vote? It depends on their presidential candidate, and how rigging plays out. They can, if they come forth with a worthwhile Presidential candidate that the play the "settlement" game well.

Same happens to the East. The Igbos wants one of their own. As an Igbo I strongly share this sentiment, but also understand that our leaders sold out. I may also not be very comfortable with APC presenting a Northerner as a President and a Yoruba VP. This is enough to motivate me to put all I can in order to stop them, not minding whoever their Presidential candidate becomes. I have always suspected that "Tinubu" and his think-tank encouraged GEJ to do away with Zoning in order to create a chance for them to contest for the Presidency in a near future. Doing otherwise would have meant the other 5 zones taking their turns (a total of possible 40 years – 8X5), before it can get to the Yorubas. It is annoying to me as an Igbo for Tinubu to pull such a fast one on me.

If Igbos can be reassured and rigging by our governors checkmated, APC can get may be close to 40% of Igbo votes. To do this certainly means having a good number of Igbo elites in their midst. Without the elites, you cannot protect your votes even when you have them.

GEJ and PDP played religious politics to get North Central votes in the last election. How easily he can resort to this again depends and the satisfaction the middle belters feel from his present performance in office. I cannot judge on this but it can go either way. This is the real battle ground. Buhari has a chance while PDP has a chance.

Now what about APC without Buhari? If Buhari campaigns for them as a leader of the party, they can still retain a significant percentage of their core north votes. But they will lose the votes of the radical progressives’ southerners who are behind Buhari. This group only motivation is Buhari and not the party. Given a good candidate, they can get away with this, with Buhari’s support and commitment.

Now APC without Buhari’s support is dead on arrival. I suspect Tinubu is working towards getting Buhari’s support while not picking him as the Presidential candidate. Be certain that Tinubu will be the financial live-wire of the Party. It is only the CAN states and Rochas that can finance the party. Buhari cannot. Tinubu is one of the smartest and crookest Nigerian that lives today. I see him the way I see IBB. They are both Maradonas and stinkingly corrupt. How he chose to play this game is what I don’t know. Mind you he can pull a fast one on GEJ. Serious and high ranking members of GEJ’s government must certainly be on his pay book.

On the D-day, all of them can pull a fast one on a “mumu” GEJ. If Atiku ever joins APC “in heart and soul” (though I doubt this, given the earlier betrayal he suffered from Tinubu and lack of trust), GEJ will be goner b/c both “Tinubu and Atiku” can do deals. They can commander even OKwonjo-Iwela to betray GEJ. They have the resources and the patronage to “conjure” most Nigeria elites together in a fight against GEJ.

Remember also that there is another criminal waiting and pulling strings, if his health allows him. He is IBB. He will certainly be a factor depending on how he perceives where his bread is buttered.

One thing that may however unite the North behind Buhari is Boko Haram and the damage it is doing to the North. I believe Northern leaders are gutted about Boko haram and suspect GEJ is using it to destroy the North. They may see the election as a last resort to salvage the North and may be able to concede enough grounds to other elites from other parts of the country, in order to remove GEJ.

How Obasanjo decide to join will certainly help in shaping things. But as a core coward (who hates taking risk based on principle, but likes using power to its brutal end), OBJ may be intimidated to join a moving train, if one emerges. In his true character, even when he hates a moving train, he will pretend to join until he can pull a trick on them. Being out of Aso Rock, he knows how not to fight a battle he can lose.

So a lot is possible.

In real politics, a second can make a difference. What is important is that the players understands the factors at play and try to maximize it.

ogor sunday: they want to steal more money again after all they have stole from state gov. they want to join hand together proceed to FG to steal the remaining oil fund. dem no go succeed

bashy_demy: Well In my own opinion, I think this APC will eventually wrestle power from PDP if there is cooperation within the house. Also presenting a credible candidate is another thing and we all know the larger population of voters come from the North and Buhari is on ground 24/7 Fashola as the VP from the SW will be another better candidate too to deliver votes from his region. Then make a full arragement for the SE as the Senate president and Chris Ngige is the right man for that post i believe. So if everything is done according to my analyses above i think the APC have a chance. Moreso most of the posters are looking into population of Voters alone but its beyond that. 2/3 of votes will give APC chance if Buhari can deliver the north and Tinubu/Fashola can deliver the west then its all good.

GenBuhari: [size=22pt]The Model is fatally flawed.

It is based on data from rigged elections[/size]

peckhamboi:

Good analysis but I still believe Buhari is the best option for the opposition, he is the only person who can deliver 12 million votes without spending a dime, he is incomparable to people like Ribadu who couldnt even deliver his own state in the last presidential election. I am 100% sure the SW will definitely not vote for GEJ so the real battle lies in NC, if the opposition can add states like Kogi, Kwara, Nassarawa, Edo in addition the the SW, then they have a great chance to defeat the PDP. People like Okorocha, Ngige, Oshiomole could also help the opposition getting a sizeable number of votes in the SS/SE.

KenGali:
You seem to think this APC thing is a no mans land? He he Abeg na Tinubu/Buhari Nigeria Limited, So Igbo man find your own level, I am sure you know the highest that will come from APGA will be Rochas Defecting. You better stop shooting yourself on the foot. Best deal for Igbos in this whole thing is GEJ. At least we still get patronised.

Ikengawo:

You and I know that governors are more powerful than senators in Nigeria. More importantly governors often hand select senators.
If CPC got 12 million votes congratulations to them, Jonathan got 70 million +

now GEJ is a nobody at the time, the only thing ppl had to use for voting for him was party, tribe, religion and region.


Buhari was an established heavy weight in Nigerian politics. Now tell me, if they can't run Buhari, who else will gather half as much support as buhari from cpc? CPC isn't a popular party. They are blessed Buhari is with them, but after him there's no more and that's why they only hold one state.

You're telling my about synergy and im telling you about reality. GEJ had more votes than all of the opposition parties combine, all of the parties combining won't make a difference, they already tried to go against him. ACN also over estimates it's own popularity. Though they're the second most powerful in Nigeria, the tribal nature of the party turns non yorubas off. It's just as tribal as AGPA and as no yoruba will vote for an AGPA governor, no igbo, middle belter, deltan, or even northerner will vote for a ACN governor.







This 'mega party' is a good move, but it's not enough. They need to hit GEJ where he can't recover and that's by taking the igbo vote.
At the same time idk if they'll be better than PDP jare. ANPP are the masters of poverty and the most corrupt backwards states in Nigeria and CPC is right up there with them. What ACN gets praised for doing in the west as been done in the east and delta already so those people aren't impressed by banning okadas, cleaning up streets, building more roads etc in a state that doesn't effect them.

farem: WHY WILL IBOS,IGBOS, Igbos, Igbos... BENEFIT FROM SOUP THEY NEVER CONTRIBUTED, &UNWILLING TO SPEND TO MAKE HAPPEN? How can some people in a group of people be so politically parasitical and naive? Yet they are talking of having the presidency or vice-presidency of APC, while a couple of good people from East like Ngige, Okorocha etc are being stigmatized and osumatized for daring to be part of the process ? For how long are you going to be deceived by a complete stranger taking up certain names like "Ebele or Azikiwe" and you think you are there? With the way things are being handled in your minds, 2023 is not feasible for you! Pls be once take a political lead and stop being a supporter. Do not be deceived [oh senseless Galatians (some IBOS), whatever a man sows, that is what he reaps-GAL. 6:7-9.

Ikengawo:

You and I know that governors are more powerful than senators in Nigeria. More importantly governors often hand select senators.
If CPC got 12 million votes congratulations to them, Jonathan got 70 million +

now GEJ is a nobody at the time, the only thing ppl had to use for voting for him was party, tribe, religion and region.


Buhari was an established heavy weight in Nigerian politics. Now tell me, if they can't run Buhari, who else will gather half as much support as buhari from cpc? CPC isn't a popular party. They are blessed Buhari is with them, but after him there's no more and that's why they only hold one state.

You're telling my about synergy and im telling you about reality. GEJ had more votes than all of the opposition parties combine, all of the parties combining won't make a difference, they already tried to go against him. ACN also over estimates it's own popularity. Though they're the second most powerful in Nigeria, the tribal nature of the party turns non yorubas off. It's just as tribal as AGPA and as no yoruba will vote for an AGPA governor, no igbo, middle belter, deltan, or even northerner will vote for a ACN governor.



I don't APC need a single vote for SE to win the presendentail election. Because I think it will be easy for them to win more 70 percent in the NW and NE and also like 60 percent in nassarawa kogi niger
And also around 50 something percent in kwara and SW so that mean 23 state so if adam can deliver 25 percent of EDO is game over PDP


This 'mega party' is a good move, but it's not enough. They need to hit GEJ where he can't recover and that's by taking the igbo vote.
At the same time idk if they'll be better than PDP jare. ANPP are the masters of poverty and the most corrupt backwards states in Nigeria and CPC is right up there with them. What ACN gets praised for doing in the west as been done in the east and delta already so those people aren't impressed by banning okadas, cleaning up streets, building more roads etc in a state that doesn't effect them.

eseosa77:




GEJ got all he had in the west and EDO out of tribal and regional sentiments.Remove these 6 states and see what will be come of PDP in 2015

chukwudi44:

You really think a state like lagos will go to APC? Lagos is too cosmopolitan for that and has large poulation of SS/SE/MB.

What we will have will be

NW/NE/SW vs SS/SE/MB

Even a state like kasdunna in the northwest will likely fall to GEJ considering the high population of the people of southern Kaduuna are SS and SE residents

chingyjant:
[b]I have been spent the past three hours going through the various comments and those who have been contributing simply shows there is hope for Nigeria in the future and yours just caught my eyes.You are pretty funny.What actually caught my eyes is the issue of the Senate President.Have you forgotten that its the majority that presents the Senate President and not the party that won the Presidential election?Its quite impossible if we should be realistic APC cannot get majority in the two chambers of National Assembly by 2015 even if they win the Presidency judging by my observation on the time frame they have at their disposal.Therefore where those it leave the SE in APC's scheme of things?That is one of the reasons the SE will keep on supporting PDP.The major thing this new found party should focus their mind is how they can pull majority in the Parliament and this will be the worst blow PDP will face in new administration that is if PDP goes on to win 2015 Presidential election.It will be more like the Democrat and the Republican thing in the US where the Democrats holds sway as the President while the opposition of Republicans are in control of the Lower chamber of the Parliament.With that there will be real check and balances in the Government in which i believe that is what Nigeria really need now.Any eyeing for the Presidency by this new party APC in 2015 to me is being too desperate and they must be watched closely if not Nigerians will be sucked for another 4 years again.The New party should start laying a foundation for 2019.The problem Nigerian Politicians do have is they don't have patience and they always want to remain in power if not their best bet for the Presidency should be 2019 and not 2015[/b]

chukwudi44:

You really think a state like lagos will go to APC? Lagos is too cosmopolitan for that and has large poulation of SS/SE/MB.

What we will have will be

NW/NE/SW vs SS/SE/MB

Even a state like kasdunna in the northwest will likely fall to GEJ considering the high population of the people of southern Kaduuna and SS and SE residents

dayokanu:

In Every Presidential election Lagos has always gone with the way the SW goes.

In 1999 Lagos voted Olu Falae while all the SS/SE and MB voted OBJ

Define MB cos Plateau and benue(Christian majority) cant be compared to Kwara and Kogi nor can they be compared to Nasarawa and Niger(Moslem majority)

chukwudi44:

You really think that SS,SE or middle belt indigenes that live in lagos will vote for APC simply because yorubas are voting for it? Lagos is too cosmopolitan to be linked around regional lines.There are just too many non-indigenes there.

Nassarawa is not a predominantly muslims state.I did not even put into consideration the huge population of indigeneous xtians in states like Adamawa,Niger and even bauchi state not to mention the high igbo presense in some of these states.

GenBuhari: [size=22pt]The Model is fatally flawed.

It is based on data from rigged elections[/size]