dayokanu:

When the SS, SE and MB were voting OBJ in 1999 why did Lagos vote Olu Falae.

Most of the SS, SE and MB are PDP how come Lagos has never been in the hands of the PDP

The huge indigenous xtian population in Adamawa, Bauchi and Niger could not stop Buhari from winning there in 2011.

In bauchi out of 20 LGA only 2 have a xtian majority thats Bogoro and Tafawa-Balewa.

How has the Ibo presence in all these states affected the voting pattern there since 1960

Jamisco:

Buhari is good to publicly join Boko Haram since his aim is to see the blood of Christians and innocent Nigerians flows on the street of Northern States. please don't mention Buhari again if you want to Nigerians be salvaged from the idiocracy of PDP. someone said that when Buhari was head of states, he was in primary school in the early 80s and his teachers told them that they are leaders of tomorrow, according to him, he is now a post graduate still seeking for job to feed his family but Buhari with his co. out there are still saying we must do or blood will litter the street. he therefore asked whether their teachers were lying to them or something is wrong some where. please help him to answer this question.

some cried that GEJ was voted into the office based on region, tribe, religion and party, but it was not so, there was never a time when any candidate from that region or a Christian lost an election and people started killing other people or burning places of worship? is only when Buhari lost election that people started suffering from almajiri and the so called bk

please when doing your merger, erase Buhari, Fashola and Tinubu from the race if you want to defeat PDP. look for somebody like Adams Osho, Rochas, David Mark, Boss Mustaphah, Jerry Gana or peter Obi. I even like the modern capitalist Atiku than Buhari.

I am from North East pls, done quote me wrong for sentiment.

Carius: are u saying d igbos cannot produce d president?any merger that does not carry d igbos along is going to fail woefully!

Ikengawo:
What ACN gets praised for doing in the west as been done in the east and delta already so those people aren't impressed by banning okadas, cleaning up streets, building more roads etc in a state that doesn't effect them.

cashcpt:

Can you please be specific on the parts of the East and Delta that have exceeded Lagos in governance, infrastructural development etc with d ltd funds of 20local govts for a state with population in excess of 3 west african countries?

cashcpt:

Can you please be specific on the parts of the East and Delta that have exceeded Lagos in governance, infrastructural development etc with d ltd funds of 20local govts for a state with population in excess of 3 west african countries?

dayokanu:

This is faulty because Ngige can net deliver the SE for the APC.

Also where do you think the SW would go in this situation? Why should anyone deliver their 6 states to you when they have no stake in the alliance?

Tinubu/ACN might deliver 6 states if included in the ticket, ngige can not even guarantee his own state or anywhere else if included in the ticket. The only way igbo will vote for APC is igbo presendential condidate and it will be foolish of APC to do so. So let them forget tottaly about SE and SS (excluding EDO)

Paentera:

Your assumptions will likely be changed drastically for PDP's SE turnout if a deal is agreed to support a SE candidate after Buhari uses one term while allowing Buhari to pick a SE VP. This permutation can change a lot of things for the SE.

Unfortunately for the PDP, they can only pick a Northern VP pick, thus creating a gap for the APC to move for a kill by presenting a credible SE VP pick. If this scenario does play out, the PDP's SE bloc will definitely be splintered.

Validated:

Guy - try leave Lagos now. Take a trip from Lagos through Edo, Delta, Enugu to Rivers. When you come back you would ask Fashola what he does with N40Billion every month.

X-factoria:


Forget those states in bold. Buhari, a bigoted fulani man, has never and would never win in the middle belt. Tell them I told you that.

GenBuhari: [size=22pt]The Model is fatally flawed.

It is based on data from rigged elections[/size]

Godman_n: You guys are making assumptions here without taking into consideration the most critical factors. I had been in the fields since 1999 election and can tell you what happened in all the elections especially in the East.

How many of us, know that ANPP won the Presidential election in the East in 1999, but was rigged out by the Igbo elites who have a common agenda of “wanting to belong to a winning PDP”? That election was majorly boycotted in the East and the few that voted, who were mainly young men, voted massively for Olu Falaye. That was like a protest vote over the Loss of the PDP primary in Jos by Ekwueme.

The 2003 election in the East was no election. What we had, was massive thumb-printing of ballot papers after scaring people aware with gun-shootings. My old aunt then was crying when I insisted on going out to vote that day (Presidential election) based on their experience the previous voting day.(I always only have interest in presidential elections). Needless to say, that when I arrived I met groups of young men, "doing their paid work". I voted for APGA. I did it in such a way that they all saw my voting; just to hit back at them. Being one of their own, who they know very well, to be ready for trouble; and being aware that my one vote made no meaning; they allowed me to get aware with it.

2007 election, I can't say much b/c I was out of the country. But the report I got was worse. There was no election.

Now 2011 election in the east was a "conspiracy of both the elites and the masses" built on tribalism. The masses were misinformed that GEJ was their own. Basically, everyone thumb-printed as much as he could to produce the massive votes. Buhari lacked the resources to monitor votes. So Buhari need finance if he can make headway in his ambition.

Also in the North, while the cities were "disgracing" PDP with massive votes for Buhari (with possible child-voting); PDP as usual was buying all the votes from the villages and producing massive figures that made nonsense of Buhari's votes.

So what is my scenario for 2015 with APC?

If Tinubu and his "gang" can sincerely commit to the alliance, they can mobilize enough resource and "evil contacts" to checkmate PDP and their rigging machine. Buhari will mobilize almost the whole core northern votes less that of fanatical Christians, believe me. The few votes, Buhari will loose from the North are those that can be bought and those of the elites who are afraid of their past. Tinubu and his CAN, while I am afraid they may lose Lagos b/c of their misrule; can always galvanize Yoruba votes for any Presidential candidate of their choice.

But will Tinubu want to do this and get Buhari into power? I serious have doubts. I believe Tinubu is too corrupt and will be risking too much to allow Buhari have a chance to probe him and send him to jail. The Nigerian elites cannot trust Buhari. They are stinkingly corrupt and will never want their past investigated or their corrupt lines of income stopped.

Majority of the South-south “real and imaginary” votes will still go GEJ's way, come what may. Though, he will certainly lose some, owing to his obvious incompetence. Can APC get one-third of the votes from any of the South-south vote? It depends on their presidential candidate, and how rigging plays out. They can, if they come forth with a worthwhile Presidential candidate that the play the "settlement" game well.

Same happens to the East. The Igbos wants one of their own. As an Igbo I strongly share this sentiment, but also understand that our leaders sold out. I may also not be very comfortable with APC presenting a Northerner as a President and a Yoruba VP. This is enough to motivate me to put all I can in order to stop them, not minding whoever their Presidential candidate becomes. I have always suspected that "Tinubu" and his think-tank encouraged GEJ to do away with Zoning in order to create a chance for them to contest for the Presidency in a near future. Doing otherwise would have meant the other 5 zones taking their turns (a total of possible 40 years – 8X5), before it can get to the Yorubas. It is annoying to me as an Igbo for Tinubu to pull such a fast one on me.

If Igbos can be reassured and rigging by our governors checkmated, APC can get may be close to 40% of Igbo votes. To do this certainly means having a good number of Igbo elites in their midst. Without the elites, you cannot protect your votes even when you have them.

GEJ and PDP played religious politics to get North Central votes in the last election. How easily he can resort to this again depends and the satisfaction the middle belters feel from his present performance in office. I cannot judge on this but it can go either way. This is the real battle ground. Buhari has a chance while PDP has a chance.

Now what about APC without Buhari? If Buhari campaigns for them as a leader of the party, they can still retain a significant percentage of their core north votes. But they will lose the votes of the radical progressives’ southerners who are behind Buhari. This group only motivation is Buhari and not the party. Given a good candidate, they can get away with this, with Buhari’s support and commitment.

Now APC without Buhari’s support is dead on arrival. I suspect Tinubu is working towards getting Buhari’s support while not picking him as the Presidential candidate. Be certain that Tinubu will be the financial live-wire of the Party. It is only the CAN states and Rochas that can finance the party. Buhari cannot. Tinubu is one of the smartest and crookest Nigerian that lives today. I see him the way I see IBB. They are both Maradonas and stinkingly corrupt. How he chose to play this game is what I don’t know. Mind you he can pull a fast one on GEJ. Serious and high ranking members of GEJ’s government must certainly be on his pay book.

On the D-day, all of them can pull a fast one on a “mumu” GEJ. If Atiku ever joins APC “in heart and soul” (though I doubt this, given the earlier betrayal he suffered from Tinubu and lack of trust), GEJ will be goner b/c both “Tinubu and Atiku” can do deals. They can commander even OKwonjo-Iwela to betray GEJ. They have the resources and the patronage to “conjure” most Nigeria elites together in a fight against GEJ.

Remember also that there is another criminal waiting and pulling strings, if his health allows him. He is IBB. He will certainly be a factor depending on how he perceives where his bread is buttered.

One thing that may however unite the North behind Buhari is Boko Haram and the damage it is doing to the North. I believe Northern leaders are gutted about Boko haram and suspect GEJ is using it to destroy the North. They may see the election as a last resort to salvage the North and may be able to concede enough grounds to other elites from other parts of the country, in order to remove GEJ.

How Obasanjo decide to join will certainly help in shaping things. But as a core coward (who hates taking risk based on principle, but likes using power to its brutal end), OBJ may be intimidated to join a moving train, if one emerges. In his true character, even when he hates a moving train, he will pretend to join until he can pull a trick on them. Being out of Aso Rock, he knows how not to fight a battle he can lose.

So a lot is possible.

In real politics, a second can make a difference. What is important is that the players understands the factors at play and try to maximize it.

danjohn:


LMAO how can I respond to this. I am not in my 70s I am actually in my 20s. The assumptions I put into the model was an example i.e. a scenario. Many options should be examined and you are free to examine your own options. All I am saying is that it helps to have data when evaluating options. Having data helps you answer questions like: can a candidate win with votes from only the NW, NE, and SW? What percent of votes would a candidate need from the SS and SE? Those are valid questions that need to be answered and a model like this can help. While Buhari has many shortcomings, the reason why many people in the opposition still bring up his name is because he brings 12 million votes to the table at very little expense. Presidential campaigns cost a lot of money in Nigeria and if a merger can start off with 12 million votes, they could look for 6 - 8 million more votes from SW, NC, SS, and SE. You dont need to engage in name calling. Debate the topic and I will respond in kind.

matekum:
The 2015 presidential election will be very interesting. From the analysis of the 2015 presidential election using Monte Carlo Model, PDP has a upper hand with over 50% of the total vote. the remaining 50% will be shared among all other political parties. APC can only try to get up to 50% if and only if we have only two parties PDP and APC+ohers. For now, GEJ will definitely win 2015 election except if something different happens which I don't think.
For PDP to loose election, first OBJ, Babaginda, Dangote and co must have moved to APC. There are some states that are PDP or nothing. APC is still a sectional party.