Stats: 3,191,879 members, 7,945,828 topics. Date: Wednesday, 11 September 2024 at 07:38 AM |
Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model (21579 Views)
Apc 2015 Presidential Ticket May Go To South East / PDP Vs APC 2015 Nairaland Opinion polls / Updated 2011 Election Result Projection Model (2) (3) (4)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (Reply) (Go Down)
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Nobody: 11:18pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
i can not give my vote to hausa man never instead of dat i preferred to vote 4 GEJ. 2 Likes |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by theripper2: 11:22pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
No almajiri is getting a vote from my lineage. Fasola Ok, Oshiomole ok, Buhari ----God forbid. 2 Likes |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Nobody: 11:24pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
chukwuma98: i can not give my vote to hausa man never instead of dat i preferred to vote 4 GEJ. That is bigotry. Even if the other candidate presents the best policies to move Nigeria forward, you will still not vote for the other candidate other than Jonathan because of ethnic or religious beliefs. This is the reason ethnicity and religious bigotry is the bane of Nigeria's development. Nigerians deserve what they get. 1 Like |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by wesley80(m): 11:27pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
ludot:If I throw a chair and it lands on Farouks head won't you thank me? Anyway, Nigerians need hard words, subtle ones do not make any impression. I find it difficult to accept this endorsement of BahaRi by Nigerias youths. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by dayokanu(m): 11:28pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
danjohn: Also assume the turnout in the SW numbers for APC is anywhere close to that of 1999 for Falae or 2003 for OBJ and tell me how the total numbers would look |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Paentera(m): 11:28pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
MAYOWAAK: Present at the merged party press conference to unveil the new party APC were, Tom Ikimi, Chairman of the ACN Merger Committee, representative of APGA, Senator Annie Okonkwo, former governor of Kano State, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau the Chairman, Merger Committee of ANPP and Garba Sadi, Chairman, Merger Committee for CPC. Oga, your postulations about Oshiomole is baseless going by this statement by him just yesterday - http://news.naij.com/23085.html On the other hand, the Mimiko-Tinubu rift has been mended according to this article - http://news.naij.com/22383.html - if you like, be taking panadol for another man's headache while making unsubstantiated claims there. I pity those who take your opinion for fact. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by aryzgreat: 11:30pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
payless: Not when we have bigot like buhari telling his supporters to vote only muslims, av been in this forum for a long time and the perception i have gotten from d yorubas and hausas are that igbos will NEVER rule Nigeria, dat has stuck into my conciousness and i have started campaigning in my own little way to my people that the era of using igbo to get wot they want is over. My vote will never go for any of these two tribes, if u like call it bigotry. I can defend myself and my conscience. Let play the tribal card in 2015 may be it will lead to nigeria disintegration which is better for me. SAI GEJ 2015! 5 Likes |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by tomakint: 11:33pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
@MAYOWAAK, you chose those 12 points like a sage, indeed you are an oracle to be consulted! Trust me you spoke the truth undiluted, I cannot agree less, good job ![]() ![]() |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by ichamentor(m): 11:37pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
Let me say this. I do not think the merger putting Buhari forth as their candidate will give them the victory at the polls. Forget about all these claims of him being a disciplined, honest and other saintly atributes being attributed to him. In the nigerian political climate, there is no saint.I said it. Buhari claims he wants to be president because he loves this country. There is nothing wrong with that. But you don't have to rule Nigeria to prove you love her. Considering his age, I think he should be playing a fatherly role in the merger that just emerged. He can put up someone who he trusts can deliver and who nigerians can trust as well, and use his massive influence in the north to garner support and votes for that candidate. Same applies to Tinubu. This will show these guys are really serious about bringing a change to the polity, and not just looking for a way to taste power. Again, i repeat---let national interest prevail over self interests if this coalition will ever work. i won't say more than this. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by vicope: 11:39pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
danny301:GOD BLESS U |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by tomakint: 11:45pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
Paentera:You mean u can't figure out the 'facts' MAYOWAAK presented before u? |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by vicope: 11:46pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
wesley80:now am sure you were born in the late 90s. You do not even have an idea of the people you claim destroyed 'your' country. Mtschwwwww! |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Nobody: 11:47pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
Please I beg you all, let us not cast a vote for an illiterate in this country anymore, no matter which platform, lets vote for a more educated fellow between the biggest parties PDP and APC. Lets leave these military background semi-illiterates. Tinubu and Buhari should stay off. I personally would love Fashola to be a flag bearer contesting against GEJ, any winner between will be for Glory of Nigeria. At this stage, what I need is transformation in electricity sector so I can kickstart my manufacturing, no more illiterate in Aso Rock please. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Paentera(m): 11:53pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
tomakint: To be certain I was not misquoted, I specified the bits I disagreed with and backed it up with hard facts. What is so hard to comprehend about my post? 1 Like |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by vandarsar(m): 11:56pm On Feb 07, 2013 |
You were also off topic at some point ![]() ![]() kokoA: Why can't some people post a simple comment without insults? Smh! Its a pity, the actual literacy level of Nigerians is pretty much lower than we think. Its a very simple topic!"PDP vs APC- 2015 Presidential Election Projection Model". You can suggest yours successfully without insulting anybody for suggesting his/hers I guess. @Topic PDP is still a very strong force. I bet APC will be disgraced if they feel just a meager can wrestle power from the "den of killers". However if they start early grassroot voters education, let the people in villages who constitute a greater percentage of voters know that election goes beyound accepting that bag of rice, pack of maggi, wrappers, etc and "pressing you hand on Umblerra", teach them that you can still collect all these and vote for a party of your choice. If the new APC can start this right away, I am sure come 2015 we will be singing a song of deliverance from the hands of PDP. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Paentera(m): 12:03am On Feb 08, 2013 |
@OP, here is my analysis: APC will present a Northern candidate to sweep the Northern votes. If that candidate is Buhari, a candidate from the SE in the mould of Sen. Ngige (ACN) who has clout in Anambra and is widely respected in the SE, would give the APC wider recognition in the SE and set up the PDP votes in that region to be split. Now the deal APC needs to make to show how serious about capturing power is to make a very sincere offer to the SE by assuring them of the Presidential candidacy come 2019. This timetable would mean a Buhari candidacy would guarantee 12m+ votes in the N.W, NC and possibly NW while sweeping most votes of the SW leaving a splintered SE but solid SS bloc for the PDP. On the other hand, the PDP will need to play musical chairs with their candidates esp their VP pick (I have no doubt that GEJ will contest in 2015) and to strike a blow to APC, will need to find a very popular Northerner who can deliver votes, if only to halve the support of Buhari. This person must be widely respected with a strong followership base who needs to pay for his supporters, but has immense respect. I am tempted to say Dangote, but I am certain Mr Aliko will for nothing in this world, soil his hands by going into politics. This is my analysis and is open to further discussion. Please avoid insults but stick to explanation of how your analysis would play out in 2015. 1 Like |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by dayokanu(m): 12:06am On Feb 08, 2013 |
Paentera: @OP, here is my analysis: This is faulty because Ngige can net deliver the SE for the APC. Also where do you think the SW would go in this situation? Why should anyone deliver their 6 states to you when they have no stake in the alliance? Tinubu/ACN might deliver 6 states if included in the ticket, ngige can not even guarantee his own state or anywhere else if included in the ticket. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by danjohn: 12:07am On Feb 08, 2013 |
dayokanu: Disclaimer: The attached document contains dayokanu's assumptions and not mine. Unfortunately, I do not have turnout numbers for 2003 and 1999 with me right now. I can get those for you in a few hours. In my original post, I reduced the turnout in SE and SS by 20% to account for the rigging that occurred there in 2011. Turnout in the NW and NE was about 54% in 2011. Since voter enthusiasm was highest in the NW, NE, and SS, I assumed that without rigging turnout in the SE and SS should have been 54%. Also, since you are assuming that there will be high voter enthusiasm in the SW, I adjusted the model to assume that voter participation would be 54% in the SW. I adjusted the model to account for your assumptions. Here is what I did. 1. I assumed that Jonathan would win 40% of the votes he won in 2011 while 60% would go for Buhari. I also assumed that Jonathan will win Ondo state because Mimiko supports him. However, I assumed that it would be by a smaller margin but still a landslide. Hence, I assumed that Jonathan would win 80% of the votes he won in Ondo. 2. In NE excluding Adamawa I assume Jonathan retains 95% of his 2011 voters. In the NW he also retains 95% of his 2011 voters. 3. In Taraba Jonathan retains 80% of his 2011 voters. 4. In the NC excluding Nassarawa, Kwara, and Niger Jonathan retains 80% of his 2011 voters. 5 In Nasarawa and Adamawa Jonathan retains 80% of his 2011 voters. 6. In Kwara Jonathan retains 65% of his voters. He loses more voters because of the large Yoruba population. 7. In Niger he retains 95% and in Edo he retains 80%. 8. Buhari gets all the votes Jonathan loses. Buhari gets 85% of Ribadu, and Shekarau voters while Jonathan get 15% of those votes. 9. In the SE and SS, I assume that Jonathan wins 97% Buhari wins 2%, and other candidates win 1%. After all this is done, the only way your assumptions win the election is if Jonathan and PDP do not rig in the SS and SE. If SE and SS voter turnout is 67% as it was in 2011, Jonathan still wins. I attached the edited model for your reference.
|
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Paentera(m): 12:15am On Feb 08, 2013 |
dayokanu: 1. Political permutations to win majority of votes means that the North must combine with the South. 2. The SE are more politically savvy and are earnestly looking out for the party that will enhance their clamour for not just a shot at the Presidency, but a firm possibility that they will clinch the position with solid backing from the rest of the country. If a viable platform is presented, I will be very surprised that political juggernauts from this region will not snatch it with both hands with quick alacrity. 3. The SW governors have found out that they can create a working economy within Nigeria, thus, they understand that as much as power can flow from the centre, they can control their future by investing more resources in solidifying their regional bases. Going by realistic political permutations, it will take at least 2 full terms for the SW to take a good shot at the Presidency (even if Fashola presents himself anytime before then, he will not clinch the post). 4. For all I know, Ngige might not be the best SE can produce, there is likely to be other candidates as good as well. If you have suggestions, do list them. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by ifihearam: 12:19am On Feb 08, 2013 |
DANILSA: WHO IS BUHARI? a terrorist and a serial loser with brain damage 2 Likes |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Paentera(m): 12:20am On Feb 08, 2013 |
danjohn: Your assumptions will likely be changed drastically for PDP's SE turnout if a deal is agreed to support a SE candidate after Buhari uses one term while allowing Buhari to pick a SE VP. This permutation can change a lot of things for the SE. Unfortunately for the PDP, they can only pick a Northern VP pick, thus creating a gap for the APC to move for a kill by presenting a credible SE VP pick. If this scenario does play out, the PDP's SE bloc will definitely be splintered. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by ifihearam: 12:20am On Feb 08, 2013 |
Billyonaire: Please I beg you all, let us not cast a vote for an illiterate in this country anymore, no matter which platform, lets vote for a more educated fellow between the biggest parties PDP and APC. Lets leave these military background semi-illiterates. Tinubu and Buhari should stay off. I personally would love Fashola to be a flag bearer contesting against GEJ, any winner between will be for Glory of Nigeria. At this stage, what I need is transformation in electricity sector so I can kickstart my manufacturing, no more illiterate in Aso Rock please. you mean BUhari is an illiterate right? is true sha 1 Like |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by dayokanu(m): 12:20am On Feb 08, 2013 |
Danjohn, I like your model but I would look at it carefully. First thing from that model Jonathan already has a 400k plus deficit. Buhari has already won more states. Also the Ondo factor I think they would go in the same direction as the SW. The Mimiko Labour factor is only viable and tenable because its between two Yoruba people not named PDP I would say Ondo goes to APC while Edo remain PDP in the election you should know Governors dont really determine Presidential elections e.g the whole North voted PDP for Governor and CPC for presidency. I think APC can pick one or two or Taraba, Nasarawa, Kogi or Kwara |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Nobody: 12:21am On Feb 08, 2013 |
GenBuhari: [size=22pt]The Model is fatally flawed. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by dayokanu(m): 12:23am On Feb 08, 2013 |
Paentera: Elections is about winning and you go with who gives you the best chance of winning. the SW has 6 states bloc and lots of votes to bargain with thats why GEJ came to Tinubu days to the election to "talk" Does Ngige guaranty such things? The SE is joined to the PDP at the hip and cant break away Even more important men like Okadigbo, Ben Obi, used as vice couldnt take them away from the PDP so you think "small" Ngige who doesnt even control his own state would? |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Paentera(m): 12:30am On Feb 08, 2013 |
dayokanu: The reason for being joined at the hip - a promise of support when there's space to take a shot at the presidency, nothing more. If there's a credible platform with solid support in numbers, I daresay it will permit for APC's chipping away at the solid SE bloc that we saw at the 2011 elections. For the APC to win in 2015, it needs to split PDP's SE vote as SW votes will be secure. GEJ had more votes in the whole Northern regions in his favour than Buhari had from the whole SE & SS, so how will Buhari bank on just NE, NE, NC & SW to win from an incumbent? He will jonse. Since the APC wants to wrestle power, if they miscalculate and get their permutations wrong, it will destroy the merger and resources will go down the drain. |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by dayokanu(m): 12:31am On Feb 08, 2013 |
Paentera: How much of PDP/OBJ's vote did a much stronger Okadigbo split in 2003 |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Paentera(m): 12:34am On Feb 08, 2013 |
dayokanu: A SW VP pick won't work for APC. 2 Likes |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by dayokanu(m): 12:36am On Feb 08, 2013 |
Danjohn, Another point is the PDP has taught us that when you rig you go all out and do it. Especially given the 98% figures obtained in some states so dont be surprised when Kano, Katsina, Sokoto etc also start rolling out 85% votes in 2015. You dont have to be Saddam Hussein Iraq, Gadaffi Libya Chavez Venezuela to roll out 98% votes it can also happen in Nigeria, PDP taught us that Remember in 2003 Tinubu still green and havent mastered the PDP politics well as incumbent he tried to play fair and he alost lost to PDP. After 2003 he vowed never to have a close election again even if it means rigging Thats why in 2007 AC won 19 out of 20 councils in the Governorship. If Tinubu throws his weight behind the merger expect margins exceeding 65% from the SW given their hate for PDP and the Ticket that has nothing for them |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by dayokanu(m): 12:38am On Feb 08, 2013 |
Paentera: A SW VP pick won't work for APC. You havent explained why. The major backbone of the merger are CPC and ACN and one of their stronghold is the SW so they cant afford to play with it. Is the APC doesnt pick a SW VP, that gives the opening for Jonathan to come in like he did in 2011 and we would see the same result like in 2011 with SW voters staying home and PDP winning |
Re: PDP vs APC - 2015 Projection Model by Nobody: 12:47am On Feb 08, 2013 |
I like all the analysis i have read so far. I do not like the PDP, hence i support whatever that do not support them. That said, i feel the support any party is going to get from the SE will be dependent on what the SE is going to get in return. The SE feels that they are being marginalized from the political shaping in Nigeria especially the presidency. They will support any big party like say PDP or APC who assures them of that presidency they yearn for. This explains why they blindly voted unanimously for GEJ simply because he bears 'Ebele' which they thought was igbo name. They just want to feel belonged. And this is where they will play into the hands of APC . Make one of them a vp and they 'll never say GEJ again with their mouth. |
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (Reply)
Video: Nigerian House Of Rep Member Defending Pay, Says He Is Not Payed Enough / IDP Workers Make Soup With Weeding Grass For Refugees. Photos / President Buhari's Interaction With Nigerians In Japan (Video)
(Go Up)
Sections: politics (1) business autos (1) jobs (1) career education (1) romance computers phones travel sports fashion health religion celebs tv-movies music-radio literature webmasters programming techmarket Links: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) Nairaland - Copyright © 2005 - 2024 Oluwaseun Osewa. All rights reserved. See How To Advertise. 109 |