chukwuma98: i can not give my vote to hausa man never instead of dat i preferred to vote 4 GEJ.

ludot:

If you call supporters of Buhari, 'legions of ediots'. What will you call yourself that resorted to name calling on a forum where everyone else is making sensible contributions. It is people like you that get voted into the senate and be throwing chairs when they get there.

danjohn:

Dayokanu, please play with the model. If Jonathan gets 97& or 98% of the votes in the SS and SE as he did in 2011, and if voter turnout in those two regions are the same as they were in 2011, it will be impossible for him to lose the election. That being said, Jonathan won the SS and SE by astronomical margins because the opposition did not campaign there. In Nigeria, it is easier to rig an election when your opponent has no supporters on ground to cry foul.

GEJ has been a disappointing president and I am sure that 15% - 20% of SS and SE voters will vote for another candidate if that candidate states his or her case. Please remember that in an election where the popular vote determines the winner you do not ignore any voter.

MAYOWAAK: Present at the merged party press conference to unveil the new party APC were, Tom Ikimi, Chairman of the ACN Merger Committee, representative of APGA, Senator Annie Okonkwo, former governor of Kano State, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau the Chairman, Merger Committee of ANPP and Garba Sadi, Chairman, Merger Committee for CPC.

Remember a day earlier 10 opposition governors of ACN, CPC, ANPP and APGA namely Borno, Ekiti, Imo, Lagos, Nasarawa, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Yobe and Zamfara .....please note that Edo and Anambra state governors did not attend or send representation.

Already the APGA is kicking that Gov Rochas Okorocha was not mandated to go into any merger talk for the party. No wonder Peter Obi of Anambra did not join in. Obi and Rochas have been having running battle over the control of APGA. Gov Obi is sympathetic and loyal to GEJ same way Adams Oshomole of Edo state is.

Labour Party governor Mimiko has never hidden his hate for Bola Tinubu's ACN, this was evident in last October governorship election were camp Mimiko and camp Tinubu slugged it out. As we know, Mimiko is a PDP man in LP cloth and his support for GEJ is not in doubt.

So who and who are united in this merger? Team ACN and Team CPC mostly. Team ACN is centrally controlled by Bola Tinubu and Team CPC is controlled by Gen Buhari and Mallam El-Rufai.

Now the main ish, Mallam El-Rufai is known for his arrogance and I-know-too-much attitude, within the CPC he's not trusted by the members who see him as someone that opens can of worms when bittered. He is more of political excess baggage than asset to the CPC, even though the party is yet to realise this.

Then we have Tinubu factor. A man that has got all to gain and nothing to loose. The supreme leader of ACN has never been trusted even within the opposition parties, they see his inherent ambition to be president at all cost as his weakest link. Tinubu sold 2011 ACN support to GEJ for yet to be disclosed amount and immunity from criminal prosecution.

The likes of Tom Ikimi, Annie Okonwo and the rest of same bedfellows are unlikely democrats. Ikimi the Edo state born controversial politician was an apostle of Gen Abacha when he served as Abacha's Foreign Minister. Ikimi turned the truth of Abacha's evil regime on its head. Today he's in APC. I laugh.

Chief Annie Okonkwo the Okaka of Ojoto is a known 419ner and election rigger, who until recent was a PDP senator before he suffered defeat.

Are these the kinda people APC want to rescue Nigeria? My question is rescue Nigerians from who?

payless:

That is bigotry. Even if the other candidate presents the best policies to move Nigeria forward, you will still not vote for the other candidate other than Jonathan because of ethnic or religious beliefs. This is the reason ethnicity and religious bigotry is the bane of Nigeria's development.

Nigerians deserve what they get.

danny301:
I beg to disagree with u ....See reasons below:
1. That one was once a member of PDP does not automatically make him a bad person... The problem is not just with individuals but the system... If the opposition party can create a better system, things will definitely be better.
2. CPC, ACN, ANPP&APGA could be regional parties before but with merging it's nothing less than a national party.
3.All Political parties are formed for the purpose of winning elections, except you are talking abt pressure groups, hence there is nothing wrong with APC wanting to win elections.... We know the states that are being governed by APC and i don't think they are doing too bad compared to PDP States, so i feel it's outrageous to say they only want to win election.
4.Too many cooks don't necessarily spoil food, what spoils food is misunderstanding among the cooks, with good understanding many cooks can come up with better food.
5. PDP is sure a national party but not the only national party, APC is now a national party in every sense of it.
6. If you are talking about war within the Party then PDP stands no chance chance because the war in the party (PDP) is too pronounced.
7.I don't really know how ego/pride comes to play here, but i know that issue of ego/pride is not just a problem with APC but with humanity as a whole.
8.All the parties that formed APC had better internal democracy than PDP.. We all know that PDP do selections rather than elections.
9.APC did not ask PDP to go to sleep, they are asking for a credible election.
10. Most of they members might be criminals under PDP, and most of the present members of PDP are still criminals, so which one do you prefer, the one who was a criminal or the one who is a criminal?
11.The present APC have Governors in most of the zones, and the may improve on that because the largest room in life, is the room for improvement.
12.The era of money politics passing in Nigeria, The Nigeria of 2015 will definitely not be the same as the Nigeria of 2007, or even 2011.

Paentera:
Oga, your postulations about Oshiomole is baseless going by this statement by him just yesterday - http://news.naij.com/23085.html
On the other hand, the Mimiko-Tinubu rift has been mended according to this article - http://news.naij.com/22383.html - if you like, be taking panadol for another man's headache while making unsubstantiated claims there.
I pity those who take your opinion for fact.

wesley80:

^ The moment we throw common sense and purpose into the head of Nigeria youths, Nigeria will make progress. I can't believe young folks are rooting for the same set of people that are responsible for the nations current state. Buhari, Shekarau, Rochas? Seriously is this the best you guys can dream?
Call me a bigot or whatever you like but as long as the best you can wish for your country is Buhari, then I stand head, shoulders and feet above you.

tomakint:
You mean u can't figure out the 'facts' MAYOWAAK presented before u?

kokoA: Why can't some people post a simple comment without insults? Smh! Its a pity, the actual literacy level of Nigerians is pretty much lower than we think. Its a very simple topic!"PDP vs APC- 2015 Presidential Election Projection Model". You can suggest yours successfully without insulting anybody for suggesting his/hers I guess. @Topic PDP is still a very strong force. I bet APC will be disgraced if they feel just a meager can wrestle power from the "den of killers". However if they start early grassroot voters education, let the people in villages who constitute a greater percentage of voters know that election goes beyound accepting that bag of rice, pack of maggi, wrappers, etc and "pressing you hand on Umblerra", teach them that you can still collect all these and vote for a party of your choice. If the new APC can start this right away, I am sure come 2015 we will be singing a song of deliverance from the hands of PDP.

Paentera: @OP, here is my analysis:

APC will present a Northern candidate to sweep the Northern votes. If that candidate is Buhari, a candidate from the SE in the mould of Sen. Ngige (ACN) who has clout in Anambra and is widely respected in the SE, would give the APC wider recognition in the SE and set up the PDP votes in that region to be split.

Now the deal APC needs to make to show how serious about capturing power is to make a very sincere offer to the SE by assuring them of the Presidential candidacy come 2019. This timetable would mean a Buhari candidacy would guarantee 12m+ votes in the N.W, NC and possibly NW while sweeping most votes of the SW leaving a splintered SE but solid SS bloc for the PDP.

On the other hand, the PDP will need to play musical chairs with their candidates esp their VP pick (I have no doubt that GEJ will contest in 2015) and to strike a blow to APC, will need to find a very popular Northerner who can deliver votes, if only to halve the support of Buhari. This person must be widely respected with a strong followership base who needs to pay for his supporters, but has immense respect. I am tempted to say Dangote, but I am certain Mr Aliko will for nothing in this world, soil his hands by going into politics.

This is my analysis and is open to further discussion. Please avoid insults but stick to explanation of how your analysis would play out in 2015.

dayokanu:

Also assume the turnout in the SW numbers for APC is anywhere close to that of 1999 for Falae or 2003 for OBJ and tell me how the total numbers would look

dayokanu:

This is faulty because Ngige can net deliver the SE for the APC.

Also where do you think the SW would go in this situation? Why should anyone deliver their 6 states to you when they have no stake in the alliance?

Tinubu/ACN might deliver 6 states if included in the ticket, ngige can not even guarantee his own state or anywhere else if included in the ticket.

DANILSA: WHO IS BUHARI?

danjohn:

Disclaimer: The attached document contains dayokanu's assumptions and not mine.

Unfortunately, I do not have turnout numbers for 2003 and 1999 with me right now. I can get those for you in a few hours. In my original post, I reduced the turnout in SE and SS by 20% to account for the rigging that occurred there in 2011. Turnout in the NW and NE was about 54% in 2011. Since voter enthusiasm was highest in the NW, NE, and SS, I assumed that without rigging turnout in the SE and SS should have been 54%. Also, since you are assuming that there will be high voter enthusiasm in the SW, I adjusted the model to assume that voter participation would be 54% in the SW.

I adjusted the model to account for your assumptions. Here is what I did.

1. I assumed that Jonathan would win 40% of the votes he won in 2011 while 60% would go for Buhari. I also assumed that Jonathan will win Ondo state because Mimiko supports him. However, I assumed that it would be by a smaller margin but still a landslide. Hence, I assumed that Jonathan would win 80% of the votes he won in Ondo.

2. In NE excluding Adamawa I assume Jonathan retains 95% of his 2011 voters. In the NW he also retains 95% of his 2011 voters.

3. In Taraba Jonathan retains 80% of his 2011 voters.

4. In the NC excluding Nassarawa, Kwara, and Niger Jonathan retains 80% of his 2011 voters.

5 In Nasarawa and Adamawa Jonathan retains 80% of his 2011 voters.

6. In Kwara Jonathan retains 65% of his voters. He loses more voters because of the large Yoruba population.

7. In Niger he retains 95% and in Edo he retains 80%.

8. Buhari gets all the votes Jonathan loses. Buhari gets 85% of Ribadu, and Shekarau voters while Jonathan get 15% of those votes.

9. In the SE and SS, I assume that Jonathan wins 97% Buhari wins 2%, and other candidates win 1%.

After all this is done, the only way your assumptions win the election is if Jonathan and PDP do not rig in the SS and SE. If SE and SS voter turnout is 67% as it was in 2011, Jonathan still wins. I attached the edited model for your reference.

Billyonaire: Please I beg you all, let us not cast a vote for an illiterate in this country anymore, no matter which platform, lets vote for a more educated fellow between the biggest parties PDP and APC. Lets leave these military background semi-illiterates. Tinubu and Buhari should stay off. I personally would love Fashola to be a flag bearer contesting against GEJ, any winner between will be for Glory of Nigeria. At this stage, what I need is transformation in electricity sector so I can kickstart my manufacturing, no more illiterate in Aso Rock please.

GenBuhari: [size=22pt]The Model is fatally flawed.

It is based on data from rigged elections[/size]

Paentera:

1. Political permutations to win majority of votes means that the North must combine with the South.

2. The SE are more politically savvy and are earnestly looking out for the party that will enhance their clamour for not just a shot at the Presidency, but a firm possibility that they will clinch the position with solid backing from the rest of the country. If a viable platform is presented, I will be very surprised that political juggernauts from this region will not snatch it with both hands with quick alacrity.

3. The SW governors have found out that they can create a working economy within Nigeria, thus, they understand that as much as power can flow from the centre, they can control their future by investing more resources in solidifying their regional bases. Going by realistic political permutations, it will take at least 2 full terms for the SW to take a good shot at the Presidency (even if Fashola presents himself anytime before then, he will not clinch the post).

4. For all I know, Ngige might not be the best SE can produce, there is likely to be other candidates as good as well. If you have suggestions, do list them.

dayokanu:

Elections is about winning and you go with who gives you the best chance of winning. the SW has 6 states bloc and lots of votes to bargain with thats why GEJ came to Tinubu days to the election to "talk"

Does Ngige guaranty such things? The SE is joined to the PDP at the hip and cant break away

Even more important men like Okadigbo, Ben Obi, used as vice couldnt take them away from the PDP so you think "small" Ngige who doesnt even control his own state would?

Paentera:

The reason for being joined at the hip - a promise of support when there's space to take a shot at the presidency, nothing more.

If there's a credible platform with solid support in numbers, I daresay it will permit for APC's chipping away at the solid SE bloc that we saw at the 2011 elections. For the APC to win in 2015, it needs to split PDP's SE vote as SW votes will be secure. GEJ had more votes in the whole Northern regions in his favour than Buhari had from the whole SE & SS, so how will Buhari bank on just NE, NE, NC & SW to win from an incumbent? He will jonse.

Since the APC wants to wrestle power, if they miscalculate and get their permutations wrong, it will destroy the merger and resources will go down the drain.

dayokanu:

How much of PDP/OBJ's vote did a much stronger Okadigbo split in 2003

Paentera: A SW VP pick won't work for APC.