Mazi_Omenuko: Op, hope you put into consideration the multiple rigging of pdp in your equation?
No equation will be balanced without putting in effect the pdp rigging mechanism. They so perfected it that they get almost 90% of total number of registered voters in a state, recording another 96% voters turnout!

wesley80:
Sorry it had to be you but I just had to get it off my chest. The number of times folks like you either through innocuous projections or outright stupidity have brought up Buhari's has simply been absurd. All these tacit endorsements and subtle campaigns MUST now stop.
@bolded, that's exactly why I said it doesn't matter if he's got legions of ediots as supporters.

dayokanu:

Which states are you talking about?

Are you asking whether its SW who control the largest population in Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Osun etc states?

If thats your question then the answer is YES

flops: How come no one has mentioned the CBN governor, Sanusi Lamido as a potential candidate?

As much as some people might not like this man, he has shown that you can be radical and still get things done in
Nigeria. Yes he has made a few mistakes, the 5,000 note problem, but with all of that
I would say unleashing a Sanusi on Nigeria's problems will be a step in the right direction.

Open for debate...

9ja_I_hail:

Don't forget you mentioned,Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Lagos hence i disagreed with you.

Meanwhile with Buhari as your front runner y'all bond to fail.

Ikengawo:

You and I know that governors are more powerful than senators in Nigeria. More importantly governors often hand select senators.
If CPC got 12 million votes congratulations to them, Jonathan got 70 million +

now GEJ is a nobody at the time, the only thing ppl had to use for voting for him was party, tribe, religion and region.


Buhari was an established heavy weight in Nigerian politics. Now tell me, if they can't run Buhari, who else will gather half as much support as buhari from cpc? CPC isn't a popular party. They are blessed Buhari is with them, but after him there's no more and that's why they only hold one state.

You're telling my about synergy and im telling you about reality. GEJ had more votes than all of the opposition parties combine, all of the parties combining won't make a difference, they already tried to go against him. ACN also over estimates it's own popularity. Though they're the second most powerful in Nigeria, the tribal nature of the party turns non yorubas off. It's just as tribal as AGPA and as no yoruba will vote for an AGPA governor, no igbo, middle belter, deltan, or even northerner will vote for a ACN governor.







This 'mega party' is a good move, but it's not enough. They need to hit GEJ where he can't recover and that's by taking the igbo vote.
At the same time idk if they'll be better than PDP jare. ANPP are the masters of poverty and the most corrupt backwards states in Nigeria and CPC is right up there with them. What ACN gets praised for doing in the west as been done in the east and delta already so those people aren't impressed by banning okadas, cleaning up streets, building more roads etc in a state that doesn't effect them.

tundetoday: I think we the youth should be smarter now. We know that identifying or analysing the unsuitability of these strange bedfellows won't get us anywhere. They simply don't represent us. We know that already. But before we can talk about cleaning the polity,we gat to wrestle to get power first. And APC represents the shortest cut. Like it or not the analysis by the poster seems real. Should APC field a "credible" combination at the centre,the battle ground will be in the southeast and southsouth.

Provided PDP still fields the obviously incompetent GEJ,there's a chance. A chance we must sieze with both hands and at all costs.

peckhamboi:
Following ur responds to post , ur questions nd answers , I c dat ur re not here to get our response but here to tell us ur candidate which is buhari, beta close dis topic nd go and sleep , u must b lookin for anoda blood to suck
Good analysis but I still believe Buhari is the best option for the opposition, he is the only person who can deliver 12 million votes without spending a dime, he is incomparable to people like Ribadu who couldnt even deliver his own state in the last presidential election. I am 100% sure the SW will definitely not vote for GEJ so the real battle lies in NC, if the opposition can add states like Kogi, Kwara, Nassarawa, Edo in addition the the SW, then they have a great chance to defeat the PDP. People like Okorocha, Ngige, Oshiomole could also help the opposition getting a sizeable number of votes in the SS/SE.

wesley80:
No Sir, I never said I was better than you. You only confirm you're among the legions of ediots along with countless al majiri's that chant sai Buhari even though they were in nappies when Buhari held sway.

wesley80:
No Sir, I never said I was better than you. You only confirm you're among the legions of ediots along with countless al majiri's that chant sai Buhari even though they were in nappies when Buhari held sway.

dayokanu:

Kano Kaduna, Katsina were won by Buhari the last time, So why do you think he wont win it again?

In lagos Yoruba make the majority of the voting population thats why a Yoruba has always been governor and Deputy ever since

dayokanu: The new Party shouldnt waste much resources in the South South and SE cos they would return Jonathan regardless

9ja_I_hail:

Very well analyzed and articulated.

9ja_I_hail:

We are not talking about been lagos state Governor because other tribes are not showing serious interest to contest. Man stop deceiving yourself.

wesley80:
No Sir, I never said I was better than you. You only confirm you're among the legions of ediots along with countless al majiri's that chant sai Buhari even though they were in nappies when Buhari held sway.

holahabib: Look guys APC should just do this and its all over for PDP:

President: Buhari

Vice President: Adams Oshiomole

Senate President: Babatunde Fashola

House of Rep Leader: Rochas Okorocha OR Shekarau

PDP will be dead and Nigeria will be one of the developed countries in 12years.

vicope:
I am a southern Christian who voted Buhari coz I see beyond ethnic and religious differences. Even though I have relatives who benefit from the unprecedented corruption of GEJs govt, I would vote for Buhari over and over again! I want a country free of corruption, nepotism, segregation and waste. GEJ has proved his incompetence and I'm proud I didn't vote for him.
Wesley, I think sounds Niger-Deltan, so its not hard to trace where your foolish, myopic and sentiment based views emanate from! My honest advise for you is to enjoy the corruption of this govt while it lasts, coz 2015 a revolution is coming and it will take place via our votes.

danjohn:

The new party needs to campaign in the SE and SS like their life depended on it. They wouldnt be campaigning to win 51%. They would be campaigning to win at least 20%. At the moment Jonathan has a firewall in the SE and the South South. We must remember that even in states Jonathan lost in 2011, he was a very respectable 2nd place finisher. In the NE and WE combined Buhari won 10,078,356 votes while Jonathan won 5,228,346 votes. That was a respectable second place finish. On the other hand in the the SS and SE, Jonathaan won 11,103,854 votes while Buhari won only 31,383 votes. What this means is that Jonathan wiped out all of Buhari's NW and NE advantage by winning the SS and SE.

I would be the first to say that the SS and SE in 2011 were probably rigged. However, the only way you can blatantly rig is when the opposition has NO presence in your area.

I am not saying that the new party needs to win the SE and the SS; all I am saying is that it needs to be a respectable second place finisher.

dayokanu: The new Party shouldnt waste much resources in the South South and SE cos they would return Jonathan regardless

If Buhari can deliver what he did in 2011 and ACN can deliver the SW 6 states

iirc in 2011 Buhari won 13 states Jonathan won 23 states

If The SW delivers all 6 states to the new Party It would read APC 19 states Jonathan 18 states. Buhari edges it

Thats assuming ONLY the SW change. Thats why I say the SW holds the key to this election

Given the Population of Nigeria most of the most populous states like Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Lagos, Oyo would be with the APC and they can win the states and the simple majority

States like Taraba, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa that was won by Jonathan might be winable for Buhari with more work done

This is a sketchy analysis

tomakint: Hmmmnnn, looking at the pictures reminds me of 'a new set of corrupt-minded and ambitious politicians' scheming hard to become relevant at all cost, but what is practically wrong with Pastor Tunde Bakare, (he is in the midst of strange bed fellows, and he seems not to be aware of it)

Ikengawo:

ACN also over estimates it's own popularity. Though they're the second most powerful in Nigeria, the tribal nature of the party turns non yorubas off. It's just as tribal as AGPA and as no yoruba will vote for an AGPA governor, no igbo, middle belter, deltan, or even northerner will vote for a ACN governor.

Wadeoye:

So, the 12 million people that voted for him are idiots? You are saying nobody in that 12 million is wiser than a foolish Igbo bigot like you? I voted for Buhari and I have never voted for PDP and will never. Are you saying you are better than me considering anything even when you dont know who I am? Many of us can put your entire family where ever they may be (whether in the bush of SE) on permanent salary without thinking about it. We love our country and we want the country to move forward - the reason we are supporting a man that has been tested and can be trusted. A man we are sure we work only in the interest of the people because he has done this before in different capacity. You, a fool would prefer that we put the country in the hand of vagabonds because of ethnicity and hatred for other peoples belief. What manner of a
human being are you? I have never seen a human being with animal gene...

Sincerely, words can't explain the level of your foolishness - it is very pathetic.

@Danjohn, thanks for your intelligent response to this fool. I agree with your viewpoint and calculations. This is however too complex for the likes of wesley80 to understand.

dayokanu:

To win an election you dont need to win in all 36 states

The SS and SE are Jonathans territory e.g in the US Democrats know they can never win some states even if they present An angel and republicans present a goat So they dont bother, they just concentrate their campaigns in the battleground states.

E.g Democrats would never win in Alabama, Missisipi, Texas, etc

danjohn:

You can do that when you have an electoral college that is winner take all. However, in Nigeria you need to win the popular vote. APC needs votes from everywhere including the SS and SE if not they will lose.

dayokanu:

Theres no campaign Buhari can do in Delta, Bayelsa and rivers that would change anything just like Jonathan cant muster any campaign in Katsina, Kano etc without the presidential paparazzi and protection