Lord Varys: I reiterate that the SW votes will shock the APC, in the Middle Belt, Jonathan has Plateau,Benue, Kogi,Taraba,Adamawa(Tukur,Boni Haruna,Bent et all will trounce Nyako who is heavily unpopular,GEJ won here in 2011 also), Nasarawa will be even as Al-Makura is finding it difficult navigating the murky ethnic waters especially with the eggons who are the largest tribe in the state leaning towards the PDP,GEJ won here in 2011 with twice Buhari's votes and the state house of assembly is PDP controlled, Southern Kaduna and the incumbent Gombe Gov will at least ensure he secures 25% in Kaduna and Gombe respectively,
The other northern states are no go areas, and there will be low turnout in Borno And Yobe due to insecurity,
I say with every inch of confidence that GEJ will triumph again in 2015 just not as massive as 2011 where he had 60% of cast votes......APC strategists shouldn't be naïve, the key fact is that while the APC will struggle to secure 25% in GEJ's strongholds,GEJ will easily secure such in the APC's bases with the exception on the core north

In 2011 it was basically Buhari standing alone without any money to campaign and he was able to sweep almost all the Northern states. Now in alliance with Juggernauts like Tinubu OBJ all the defecting governors, Maybe IBB and Atiku would give their silent approval or remain neutral

In 2011 the dislike for GEJ wasnt this high. The best bet for Jonathan is not to conduct an election because he would be so disgraced it wont be funny. In 2011 all Northern governors were in PDP today gradually all of them are moving to APC. So who would do the work for GEJ?

In the North Central GEJ would win in Benue and Plateau. But I can guarantee you that he would lose Niger, Adamawa and Kwara. Taraba and Kogi would be close wiith the former tending to Jonathan and the former to APC

dayokanu:

You are making an error comparing SW of 2011 to that of 2013.

Let me ask where was Oyinlola and OBJs alliance during the Ondo election, where is it today?

The biggest GEJ politician in the SW today is Mimiko. How can he survive when the combination of Tinubu, 5 APC governors, plus PDP renegades like Shuabu Oyedokun, OBJ Oyinlola and even FFK descend on him

The GEJ supporters you named in the SW are largely non entities. Who is Alao-Akala Fayose or Daniels today? both either lost or cant make any of their annointed candidate win

The winning ticket is a Tambuwal/Buhari - allied with Fashola as vice the election would be a forgone win for APC

Yorubas would support their tribesman in Fashola ahead of anything Jonathan promises them

I am happy I don't get to answer all the questions as some capable people on here are speaking exactly my mind and the workings of Nigerian politics. Just an addition: Politics is EXTREMELY dynamic! The dynamics of 2011 is extremely different from 2015 elections! Have this in mind when making your analysis.

jmaine: If you believe politicians control the electorates then do not bring up the issue of the sophistication of the South west any longer.

Again, the SW are not zombies to any politician. Like every Nigerian, the sentiments about the candidates is the defining factor rather than the politicians themselves.

The SW from 1951 to 1999 followed anywhere Awolowo and his party went. even after 15yrs of Awos death. All you needed to win election is to ally with Awos party. Thats half a century of dogged followership of Obafemi Awolowo and his legacy

The SW in 2011 followed Tinubus party. Sit down there and be yarning English

Any leader that proves to be trustworthy would always win the followership of the SW

cramjones:

Let's leave FFK out of this for now. He is an individual, don't judge a party based on FFKs previous essays or statements. That said, politics is a game of numbers. The numbers are in the South West and Core North. The support of SE/SS can't give Jonathan the presidency. SE/SS still have APC loyalist, and we will do our best to let them know how badly their region have been run by their so called son.

I will respect your civil responses. Unlike most of your APC members you seem interested in a real discussion. However what I get from this our little discussion confirms my initial point. I said that APC is bigoted towards SS and the SE and I can glean from yours and dayokanu points that the overwhelming support that GEJ enjoys there is responsible for the hatred for them by APC.

2015 is going to be a very interesting year. I rest my case for now.

dayokanu:

The SW from 1960 to 1999 followed anywhere Awolowo and his party went. even after 15yrs of Awos death. All you needed to win election is to ally with Awos party

The SW in 2011 followed Tinubus party. Sit down there and be yarning English

Any leader that proves to be trustworthy would always win the followership of the SW

It is not about English but simple deductive inference. By your statement you are indicting the South westerners of having the herd mentality .

The SW didn't follow Tinubu because of Tinubu, but because they were fed up with the performance of the PDP and needed a change. A reason why Tinubu despite all his propaganda was mauled in Ondo

If the APC should get on the nerves of the people, Mimiko labour party might just be the next major player in the SW if the PDP doesn't bounce back.

Oyinlola was so strong but GEJ lost in Osun state.

If you like alliance with the devil, the electorates will eventually decide like they have been doing recently

russellino:

I will respect your civil responses. Unlike most of your APC members you seem interested in a real discussion. However what I get from this our little discussion confirms my initial point. I said that APC is bigoted towards SS and the SE and I can glean from yours and dayokanu points that the overwhelming support that GEJ enjoys there is responsible for the hatred for them by APC.

2015 is going to be a very interesting year. I rest my case for now.

You are free to call it bigoted its your prerogative. Its like saying Obama and the democratic party is bigotted against Arkansas, Alabama and Missisipi by not commiting resources to these states in the election

Politics is strategic. When you learn well you would understand

jmaine: It is not about English but simple deductive inference. By your statement you are indicting the South westerners of having the herd mentality .
The SW didn't follow Tinubu because of Tinubu, but because they were fed up with the performance of the PDP and needed a change. A reason why Tinubu despite all his propaganda was mauled in Ondo.

If the APC should get on the nerves of the people, Mimiko labour party might just be the next major player in the SW if the PDP doesn't bounce back.

Oyinlola was so strong but GEJ lost in Osun state.

If you like alliance with the devil, the electorates will eventually decide like they have been doing recently

You are free to call it herd mentality but the facts on ground is that SW electorates stuck to Awolowos party for over 50yrs. Half a century.

Mimikos Labour party would do what? Can he do anything outside Ondo state? Most SW politicians are careful not to associate themselves with Jonathan else they would lose the elections.

Osun election is coming up, Let Jonathan come and test his popularity by campaigning for the PDP candidate and see the result or try it in Ekiti and endorse any candidate and lets see the result. You seem to be understimating the dislike the average SWesterner have for Jonathans regime.

Since the SE are the pillars of his regime let the SE vote him in and the SW he tagged as rascals would show him our rascality

dayokanu:

You are making an error comparing SW of 2011 to that of 2013.

Let me ask where was Oyinlola and OBJs alliance during the Ondo election, where is it today?

The biggest GEJ politician in the SW today is Mimiko. How can he survive when the combination of Tinubu, 5 APC governors, plus PDP renegades like Shuabu Oyedokun, OBJ Oyinlola and even FFK descend on him

The GEJ supporters you named in the SW are largely non entities. Who is Alao-Akala Fayose or Daniels today? both either lost or cant make any of their annointed candidate win

The winning ticket is a Tambuwal/Buhari - allied with Fashola as vice the election would be a forgone win for APC

Yorubas would support their tribesman in Fashola ahead of anything Jonathan promises them

I admit GEJ's support base is substantially depleted in the SW but OBJ's camp is fighting back because they've had the party structure in the region taken from them and given to core GEJ loyalists, Kashamu, bode George, Olubolade,Fayose.etc, I'm under no illusions that he will win the SW, what I believe he can do is secure at least 30% of the sW votes, these along with 90% of the SE/SS votes,70% of MB votes and 15% of core north votes will return him to power........this is the likeliest outcome, GEJ might only lose if APC fields a Tambuwal/Fashola ticket but because of religious balancing issues,Amaechi or okorocha will likely get the running mate post which might even further alienate SW voters
The key to a APC victory is Fashola being the running mate, if Fashola isn't then the SW will feel like there's not much to gain and not much at stake.....I still firmly believe GEJ will win

dayokanu:

You are free to call it bigoted its your prerogative. Its like saying Obama and the democratic party is bigotted against Arkansas, Alabama and Missisipi by not commiting resources to these states in the election

Politics is strategic. When you learn well you would understand

Its bigotry bros. You can't in any dream imagine democratic party bigwigs describing alabama and arkansas natives as hicks and backwater hill billies without the party being dragged thru the mud and branded a bigoted party. Especially when party men like you who are well known for racism. Its worse when even the leaders do nothing to stem the tide of hate but probably see it as a way of strengthening their position

I guess bigotry is strategy as I am learning

Lord Varys:
I admit GEJ's support base is substantially depleted in the SW but OBJ's camp is fighting back because they've had the party structure in the region taken from them and given to core GEJ loyalists, Kashamu, bode George, Olubolade,Fayose.etc, I'm under no illusions that he will win the SW, what I believe he can do is secure at least 30% of the sW votes, these along with 90% of the SE/SS votes,70% of MB votes and 15% of core north votes will return him to power........this is the likeliest outcome, GEJ might only lose if APC fields a Tambuwal/Fashola ticket but because of religious balancing issues,Amaechi or okorocha will likely get the running mate post which might even further alienate SW voters
The key to a APC victory is Fashola being the running mate, if Fashola isn't then the SW will feel like there's not much to gain and not much at stake.....I still firmly believe GEJ will win

These GEJ loyalists are nonentities in the SW. Is it Bode George or Kashamu who are those? who is Olubolade? Only fayose has some form of grassroot support in his Ekiti state.

GEJ can do 30% in the SW that I dont dispute but whats the relevance of 30% in this?

Rememeber this NE and NW have 13 states between them add 6 SW its already 19 states out of 36 states. Now think of the Kwara and Niger states thats likely to go APC. thats like 21 states already Any bonus from Kogi or Nasarawa makes it even more omnious

And dont mix the percentages with abosulte numbers 100% of 20 is still less than 60% of 50. Winning 100% of Bayelsa is still inferior in absolute numbers to 60% of Katsina

dayokanu:

In 2011 it was basically Buhari standing alone without any money to campaign and he was able to sweep almost all the Northern states. Now in alliance with Juggernauts like Tinubu OBJ all the defecting governors, Maybe IBB and Atiku would give their silent approval or remain neutral

In 2011 the dislike for GEJ wasnt this high. The best bet for Jonathan is not to conduct an election because he would be so disgraced it wont be funny. In 2011 all Northern governors were in PDP today gradually all of them are moving to APC. So who would do the work for GEJ?

In the North Central GEJ would win in Benue and Plateau. But I can guarantee you that he would lose Niger, Adamawa and Kwara. Taraba and Kogi would be close wiith the former tending to Jonathan and the former to APC

IBB is not exactly in opposition to GEJ, Obasanjo and atiku are but IBB is somewhat ambivalent, he wants his son 'mohammed babangida' to be the next niger state governor on the PDP platform and he still has the ears of the Villa thanks to NSA Dasuki and Colonel Umar and David Mark, IBB Boys who are in a working arrangement with Jonathan, I reiterate that GEJ will sweep the MB with the exception of niger, Kwara will hang in the balance because Of Saraki's defection but if Belgore crosses over to the PDP and with A sitting Senator Simeon ajibola and some others staying with GEJ....he could give the Saraki machinery a close bite there.....In Nasarawa, Al Makura has incurred the wrath of the Eggons alienating key allies in the APC including Eggon's fav son Solomon Ewuga, the PDP is more United with Doma and maku, note that the PDP has 19 of the 24 HOA members in this state and that GEJ secured 60% of nasarawa's vote in 2011...GEJ will just nick this state
In Adamawa, nyako is heavily unpopular and all the major politicians in the state are united under the PDP against him, even most of the state house of reps members and two of their senators chose to stay in the PDP due to personal issues with him, even the most influential politician in the opposition Boni Haruna has returned to the PDP to join Tukur,Bent,Dan Suleiman and others, expect Marwa and Gundiri to follow suit, Nyako was the a liability APC took, Kogi is firmly PDP, Wada and Smart Adeyemi are fiercely GEJ lotyalists,no problem here as always, same with Taraba

dayokanu:

Since the SE are the pillars of his regime let the SE vote him in and the SW he tagged as rascals would show him our rascality

Men you APC ppl are good at twisting words and half truths sha. GEJ called AC.N politicians rascals not yorubas as a group. Which self respecting yoruba politician whether pdp or not identify or serve under him if he did something as silly as that. Well this una style must be effective for illiterates and not ppl who can read. I guess all na strategy abi?

Back in February, APC Governors pledged to implement free Education, as Okorocha Confirms ‘Real APGA’ as part of the APC merger. It is refreshing to note that these governors are working towards their pledges, the latest being Governor of Kano. Kudos to these APC governors.

For those who have a short memory and have forgotten about this pledge, pleae refresh your memory [url=http://saharareporters.com/news-page/apc-governors-implement-free-education-okorocha-confirms-%E2%80%98real-apga%E2%80%99-part-merger]here[/url]

dayokanu:

You are free to call it herd mentality but the facts on ground is that SW electorates stuck to Awolowos party for over 50yrs. Half a century.

Mimikos Labour party would do what? Can he do anything outside Ondo state? Most SW politicians are careful not to associate themselves with Jonathan else they would lose the elections.

Osun election is coming up, Let Jonathan come and test his popularity by campaigning for the PDP candidate and see the result or try it in Ekiti and endorse any candidate and lets see the result. You seem to be understimating the dislike the average SWesterner have for Jonathans regime.

Since the SE are the pillars of his regime let the SE vote him in and the SW he tagged as rascals would show him our rascality

I brought up the Mimiko angle to quash your theory which said the SW were herded to vote the ACN solely because of Tinubu. If ACN came a distant third in Ondo despite Tinubu vigorous campaign of calumny against Mimiko; then Tinubu over estimated worth just got binned with that fact..

Aregbesola has a strong base in Osun, and his win is assured, just like it happened in Ondo, Edo and Anambra.

You need to know various dynamics control local and National politics. You are not currently in the SW like us so you can't place a value or predict the SW disposition towards GEJ.

As it was in 2011, GEJ might just hold his ground here in 2015. Though it might not be in overwhelming style like 2011.

[color=#006600][/color]

dayokanu:

These GEJ loyalists are nonentities in the SW. Is it Bode George or Kashamu who are those? who is Olubolade? Only fayose has some form of grassroot support in his Ekiti state.

GEJ can do 30% in the SW that I dont dispute but whats the relevance of 30% in this?

Rememeber this NE and NW have 13 states between them add 6 SW its already 19 states out of 36 states. Now think of the Kwara and Niger states thats likely to go APC. thats like 21 states already Any bonus from Kogi or Nasarawa makes it even more omnious

And dont mix the percentages with abosulte numbers 100% of 20 is still less than 60% of 50. Winning 100% of Bayelsa is still inferior in absolute numbers to 60% of Katsina

. [color=#006600][quote author=dayokanu]


In your mind you think SW XTIANS will be comfortable voting a Northern Muslim who they perceived as BH supporters. For you information, 30%-50% of Northerners are XTIANS who are pro-GEJ that is why they insisted that GEJ should not contest.

In 2011 GEJ won 23 states and the FCT , had 25% in 31 states,had 60% of cast vote...
In 2015 against a Tambuwal/Amaechi Candidature NB no fashola
I project GEJ to win all SE and SS states, Edo and Rivers included, quote me on this,that's 11 states with 90% to 10% margin
I project gEJ winning Ondo, Lagos narrowly, Oyo narrowly (If akala and ladoja work together for him) plus 40% in ekiti and ogun and 10% in Osun
In the MB, I project GEJ winning Plateau, Taraba,Benue,Kogi,Nasarawa(narrowly),narrowly losing Kwara, plus 30% in Southern Kaduna,Gombe that's 19 states plus FCT which is a PDP Bastion.....with landslide in the SS/SE, 70%MB and 50% SW +10% North, that's about 53-55% of valid votes

Lord Varys:
IBB is not exactly in opposition to GEJ, Obasanjo and atiku are but IBB is somewhat ambivalent, he wants his son 'mohammed babangida' to be the next niger state governor on the PDP platform and he still has the ears of the Villa thanks to NSA Dasuki and Colonel Umar and David Mark, IBB Boys who are in a working arrangement with Jonathan, I reiterate that GEJ will sweep the MB with the exception of niger, Kwara will hang in the balance because Of Saraki's defection but if Belgore crosses over to the PDP and with A sitting Senator Simeon ajibola and some others staying with GEJ....he could give the Saraki machinery a close bite there.....In Nasarawa, Al Makura has incurred the wrath of the Eggons alienating key allies in the APC including Eggon's fav son Solomon Ewuga, the PDP is more United with Doma and maku, note that the PDP has 19 of the 24 HOA members in this state and that GEJ secured 60% of nasarawa's vote in 2011...GEJ will just nick this state
In Adamawa, nyako is heavily unpopular and all the major politicians in the state are united under the PDP against him, even most of the state house of reps members and two of their senators chose to stay in the PDP due to personal issues with him, even the most influential politician in the opposition Boni Haruna has returned to the PDP to join Tukur,Bent,Dan Suleiman and others, expect Marwa and Gundiri to follow suit, Nyako was the a liability APC took, Kogi is firmly PDP, Wada and Smart Adeyemi are fiercely GEJ lotyalists,no problem here as always, same with Taraba

One of the biggest and richest politician in Nigeria is Atiku, the current incumbent governor is Nyarko, So you expect the two to ally and still lose to Boni Haruna and co?

You keep comparing 2011 when CPC was basically Buhari alone to 2015 when its bigger and has more finances for campaign.

Going by your analysis 13 NW and NE states plus 6 SW states is already 19 right? add Niger and Kwara thats 21 states So how does GEJ win the states unless he splits Bayelsa Anambra Enugu(His strong base) into 10 states

Another thing of the 8 most populous states in Nigeria Kano, lagos, Kaduna, katsina, Oyo, Rivers Jigawa Bauchi, APC controls 7 firmly only Rivers is Jonathan Now tell me if everyone picks majority in their strong base Gej would be soo badly behind

dayokanu:

These GEJ loyalists are nonentities in the SW. Is it Bode George or Kashamu who are those? who is Olubolade? Only fayose has some form of grassroot support in his Ekiti state.

GEJ can do 30% in the SW that I dont dispute but whats the relevance of 30% in this?

Rememeber this NE and NW have 13 states between them add 6 SW its already 19 states out of 36 states. Now think of the Kwara and Niger states thats likely to go APC. thats like 21 states already Any bonus from Kogi or Nasarawa makes it even more omnious

And dont mix the percentages with abosulte numbers 100% of 20 is still less than 60% of 50. Winning 100% of Bayelsa is still inferior in absolute numbers to 60% of Katsina

The same ABC calculation and extrapolation that was rendered useless in the REALITY SHOW of 2011

Lord Varys: In 2011 GEJ won 23 states and the FCT , had 25% in 31 states,had 60% of cast vote...
In 2015 against a Tambuwal/Amaechi Candidature NB no fashola
I project GEJ to win all SE and SS states, Edo and Rivers included, quote me on this,that's 11 states with 90% to 10% margin
I project gEJ winning Ondo, Lagos narrowly, Oyo narrowly (If akala and ladoja work together for him) plus 40% in ekiti and ogun and 10% in Osun
In the MB, I project GEJ winning Plateau, Taraba,Benue,Kogi,Nasarawa(narrowly),narrowly losing Kwara, plus 30% in Southern Kaduna,Gombe that's 19 states plus FCT which is a PDP Bastion.....with landslide in the SS/SE, 70%MB and 50% SW +10% North, that's about 53-55% of valid votes

And why would APC pick Amaechi as running mate when he cant even deliver his home state?

is that what PDP is hoping APC does?

The APC would pick a Yoruba SW deputy maybe Fashola or Fayemi/Adeniyi Adebayo

So all those your permutations are trashed already

Its like APC hoping Jonathan would pick Peter Obi as his Vice president and basing calculations on that

jmaine:

The same ABC calculation and extrapolation that was rendered useless in the REALITY SHOW of 2011

2011 It was Buhari alone. 2015 Its Buhari plus the ACN machinery of the SW plus a neutral OBJ, Atiku, IBB

.

@dayokanu, I reiterate that the SW does not vote in herd mentality like the rest of the country, each state has its own peculiar dynamics and as such individuals and not parties dominate the space, that's why a Mimiko in ondo is there, and a Jimi Agbaje is popular and fayose is strong in Ekiti, except Fashola is the APC's running mate which is unlikely, Jonathan will shock Tambuwal in the sW, south westerners remain intrinsically suspicious of a northern candidate,they'll rather stick to the devil they know plus you can never rule out the religious factor, Redeemed camp worked in 2011, what makes you think it can't work again

SUBMARINE: In your mind you think SW XTIANS will be comfortable voting a Northern Muslim who they perceived as BH supporters.

These same SW xtians had no problems voting in MKO-Kingibe ticket even when the opponent was spreading runours that MKO sunk bibles in the ocean

These same SW xtians had no problems voting in Moslem governors in almost all their states even defeating xtian candidates like Akala, Oyinlola, Olurin

The SW xtians which I am one of dont care about your religious leanings. In Yorubaland all religion are alien to us, we are first and foremost Yorubas before Moslems or Xtians thats why I would rather support Aregbesola or Tinubu ahead of a non Yoruba xtian

dayokanu:

2011 It was Buhari alone. 2015 Its Buhari plus the ACN machinery of the SW plus a neutral OBJ, Atiku, IBB

The sentiment of the electorates towards the election is supreme and not those you mentioned.

A lot can happen before the polls in 2015, so don't be too confident in your proven unrealistic predictions.

dayokanu:

These same SW xtians had no problems voting in MKO-Kingibe ticket even when the opponent was spreading runours that MKO sunk bibles in the ocean

These same SW xtians had no problems voting in Moslem governors in almost all their states even defeating xtian candidates like Akala, Oyinlola, Olurin

The SW xtians which I am one of dont care about your religious leanings. In Yorubaland all religion are alien to us, we are first and foremost Yorubas before Moslems or Xtians thats why I would rather support Aregbesola or Tinubu ahead of a non Yoruba xtian

dayokanu:

These same SW xtians had no problems voting in MKO-Kingibe ticket even when the opponent was spreading runours that MKO sunk bibles in the ocean

These same SW xtians had no problems voting in Moslem governors in almost all their states even defeating xtian candidates like Akala, Oyinlola, Olurin

The SW xtians which I am one of dont care about your religious leanings. In Yorubaland all religion are alien to us, we are first and foremost Yorubas before Moslems or Xtians thats why I would rather support Aregbesola or Tinubu ahead of a non Yoruba xtian

dayokanu:

These same SW xtians had no problems voting in MKO-Kingibe ticket even when the opponent was spreading runours that MKO sunk bibles in the ocean

These same SW xtians had no problems voting in Moslem governors in almost all their states even defeating xtian candidates like Akala, Oyinlola, Olurin

The SW xtians which I am one of dont care about your religious leanings. In Yorubaland all religion are alien to us, we are first and foremost Yorubas before Moslems or Xtians thats why I would rather support Aregbesola or Tinubu ahead of a non Yoruba xtian

Why won't they rally round MKO( their son) the way Igbo and SS are rallying around GEJ. Yoruba XTIANS don't have problem with Yoruba Muslims unlike Northern Muslims.

Lord Varys: @dayokanu, I reiterate that the SW does not vote in herd mentality like the rest of the country, each state has its own peculiar dynamics and as such individuals and not parties dominate the space, that's why a Mimiko in ondo is there, and a Jimi Agbaje is popular and fayose is strong in Ekiti, except Fashola is the APC's running mate which is unlikely, Jonathan will shock Tambuwal in the sW, south westerners remain intrinsically suspicious of a northern candidate, they'll rather stick to the devil they know plus you can never rule out the religious factor, Redeemed camp worked in 2011, what makes you think it can't work again

Another excellent summation . . . . A lil propaganda jingles does wonders within a very short space.

dayokanu:

2011 It was Buhari alone. 2015 Its Buhari plus the ACN machinery of the SW plus a neutral OBJ, Atiku, IBB

Buhari won't run most likely and most SW I know will vote GEJ ove Buhari everyday, Buhari's not popular in the SW

dayokanu:
And why would APC pick Amaechi as running mate when he cant even deliver his home state?

is that what PDP is hoping APC does?

The APC would pick a Yoruba SW deputy maybe Fashola or Fayemi/Adeniyi Adebayo

So all those your permutations are trashed already

Its like APC hoping Jonathan would pick Peter Obi as his Vice president and basing calculations on that

The APC would pick either an Amaechi Or an Okorocha as the running mate, this were the assurances that got them to decamp, the APC has to make concessions to the incoming PDP govs.....this will be their waterloo, if the APC was fielding a Fashola as the running mate to a Tambuwal, then I would have said there was cause to worry from GEJ but with a SW most likely not going to be the running mate,the region becomes more open

Lord Varys: @dayokanu, I reiterate that the SW does not vote in herd mentality like the rest of the country, each state has its own peculiar dynamics and as such individuals and not parties dominate the space, that's why a Mimiko in ondo is there, and a Jimi Agbaje is popular and fayose is strong in Ekiti, except Fashola is the APC's running mate which is unlikely, Jonathan will shock Tambuwal in the sW, south westerners remain intrinsically suspicious of a northern candidate,they'll rather stick to the devil they know plus you can never rule out the religious factor, Redeemed camp worked in 2011, what makes you think it can't work again

You said Yorubas dont do herd mentality, You can call it any name you want but from history Yorubas vote for any trusted party or leader, The candidate is secondary. How come they all voted AG, all voted UPN, All voted AD and all voted ACN at the same time

How many ppl knew Fashola in 2007 before voting him? Do you think ppl voted fashola or AC? How come ppl voted all the candidates AD presented in 1999? If AD had presented a goat in 1999 he would have won

Let me clear something here. Mimiko only became governor in Ondo because he allied with Tinbu and ACN to dislodge the big elephant in the room which was OBJ-Agagu. Without Tinubus support Mimiko would never have won in Ondo.

Secondly Most Yorubas dont want to hear PDP. Let Mimiko try and decamp to PDP and see him get booted out in a matter of weeks. Yorubas would rather vote for ANC of South Africa than vote PDP.

Which Redeemed camp factor? How come the redeemed camp factor didnt make the Moslem candidates lose governorship election in Oyo, Ogun, Osun and Lagos

Lord Varys:
Buhari won't run most likely and most SW I know will vote GEJ ove Buhari everyday, Buhari's not popular in the SW



The APC would pick either an Amaechi Or an Okorocha as the running mate, this were the assurances that got them to decamp, the APC has to make concessions to the incoming PDP govs.....this will be their waterloo, if the APC was fielding a Fashola as the running mate to a Tambuwal, then I would have said there was cause to worry from GEJ but with a SW most likely not going to be the running mate,the region becomes more open

Maybe you should say thats what you and the PDP is hoping for.

A Buhari Fashola ticket is the winning one. Buhari without campaign finds swept all the Northern states in 2011.

A fashola on the ticket sweeps all SW states. Assurances of Okorocha and Amaechi would now supercede the common sense of winning election? What does Rochas and Amaechi bring in terms or electoral goodwill that would make them be given such concession? Or do you think they just distribute tickets around like Gala and pure water?

Lord Varys:
IBB is not exactly in opposition to GEJ, Obasanjo and atiku are but IBB is somewhat ambivalent, he wants his son 'mohammed babangida' to be the next niger state governor on the PDP platform and he still has the ears of the Villa thanks to NSA Dasuki and Colonel Umar and David Mark, IBB Boys who are in a working arrangement with Jonathan, I reiterate that GEJ will sweep the MB with the exception of niger, Kwara will hang in the balance because Of Saraki's defection but if Belgore crosses over to the PDP and with A sitting Senator Simeon ajibola and some others staying with GEJ....he could give the Saraki machinery a close bite there.....In Nasarawa, Al Makura has incurred the wrath of the Eggons alienating key allies in the APC including Eggon's fav son Solomon Ewuga, the PDP is more United with Doma and maku, note that the PDP has 19 of the 24 HOA members in this state and that GEJ secured 60% of nasarawa's vote in 2011...GEJ will just nick this state
In Adamawa, nyako is heavily unpopular and all the major politicians in the state are united under the PDP against him, even most of the state house of reps members and two of their senators chose to stay in the PDP due to personal issues with him, even the most influential politician in the opposition Boni Haruna has returned to the PDP to join Tukur,Bent,Dan Suleiman and others, expect Marwa and Gundiri to follow suit, Nyako was the a liability APC took, Kogi is firmly PDP, Wada and Smart Adeyemi are fiercely GEJ lotyalists,no problem here as always, same with Taraba

This is where you are getting it wrong, Governorship election is different from presidential election, they can unite to win the state elections, but when it comes to the presidential election it is another kettle of fish brother. I have not met any Hausa man who says he would vote Jonathan in 2015 just the same way i cannot lure my mother from not voting Jonathan.

jmaine: Another excellent summation . . . . A lil propaganda jingles does wonders within a very short space.

So you think propaganda would make Yorubas vote against their beloved son Babatunde Fashola?

Let me see how PDP would tell people to vote Jonathan and Sambo over our son Babatunde fashola when he is campaigning in Yoruba language in Ibadan, Ado-Ekiti, Akure etc