crazyT:

@ ICONBULL

CRAZY T, please i been wan ask u .how did u know capoil wuld be moving up, there hav been no result till date. did any of the gurus gave the hint in previous post? i rejoice with u sha! my own go soon come  


It’s very funny, but Capoil happen to be one of the first stocks I bought on NSE without any knowledge of how to pick fundamentally good stocks. I bought Afroil and Capoil almost the same time for two reasons
1. because they both carries OIL as part of there names. 2. Because they were cheap and as luck will have it  they both appreciate about 3200% and 2600% respectively between 6 to 9 months.

I guess it was a welcome gift from NSE.

See you are a GURU. Apart from OIL what other word should we look out for when picking a stock on the NSE. If it can give you 3200% and 2600% why change the strategy? Remember you don't change a winning team. Please make me your disciple OOOO.

Temmie10:

I have learned not to be too conservative about banks, they are capable of what some would call magic
Meanwhile that 88 pages i cannot read today o, but i have been keeping tabs on Union Bank too and i quite like what i see (for long term sha not exactly cico on this one)

What really is UBN offering that otehr banks are not better at doing. Just name one!!!!!!! Abeg, let that sleeping giant continue its sleep!

wanaj0:

See you are a GURU. Apart from OIL what other word should we look out for when picking a stock on the NSE. If it can give you 3200% and 2600% why change the strategy? Remember you don't change a winning team. Please make me your disciple OOOO.


What really is UBN offering that otehr banks are not better at doing. Just name one!!!!!!! Abeg, let that sleeping giant continue its sleep!

Stock marshall wanaj0 iif na play make you stop am o

There 100,000 reasons the giant must wake up from its sleep o

100,000 units of UBN! Ha, bros you dey for gravy trainooo.

RoughCut:

That report is 88 pages! what time you get to read am and more importantly what time do you get to sleep?

Keeping up with nairaland is a job on its own and coupled with some other things. Abeg just give us the koko in one or two paragarphs jare

It's really much shorter than that. Lots of charts and tables at the end. The koko is; they expect M&As as the banks struggle for #1; the mid-tiers will not catch up to the top-tiers despite the impressive run of late; they are all looking for ways to hand out consumer loans; they all have the same strategies for growth.

As Wanaj0 said, the number have changed a little but it makes for good reading. Small yabis dey for Aig and Access bank too. Read in-between the lines.

Abeg make afrinvest no use their detailed report cause riot for banking stocks.

If them yab GTB, who them go praise now.

Has any one seen todays prices, zenith has not updated as at the last time I checked.

@Pumping, easimoni. etc

Please can someone send me or upload the updated data for Aptistock, please

Blood on the Insurance dance floor today. I hope most of the CICOers got out last week. No news expected for 3 months. I suspect there'll be a bearish run on Ins Coys for quite a couple of weeks at least.

invisible!:

Abeg make afrinvest no use their detailed report cause riot for banking stocks.
If them yab GTB, who them go praise now.

Na true dem talk about GTB. We've debated on this forum if GTB can even make 20B this FY when Oceanic made 9B last Q. They were on par just 2 short years ago! GTBank is still the most respected brand in naija (so says an independent survey), but the faithful shareholders (alas, I'm no longer one) must be looking at the rest of the sector in envy.  

upward:

@Pumping, easimoni. etc

Please can someone send me or upload the updated data for Aptistock, please

I'll post the updated data in this thread in 30 mins

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-103844.0.html

wanaj0:

See you are a GURU. Apart from OIL what other word should we look out for when picking a stock on the NSE. If it can give you 3200% and 2600% why change the strategy? Remember you don't change a winning team. Please make me your disciple OOOO.

If I am a white man you’ll surely see me blushing  , I know you are pulling my legs and for the guru of the guru’s to say this about my unconventional methods means a lot.

But on the other hand it shows how God really do use unconventional ways to help poor souls as mine.

Before I join NSE (February last year) I have lost more than 70million Naira in doing different businesses in Nigeria.

But God’s name be praised I have re-equip all my money back with intrest on top.

crazyT:


If I am a white man you’ll surely see me blushing , I know you are pulling my legs and for the guru of the guru’s to say this about my unconventional methods means a lot.

But on the other hand it shows how God really do use unconventional ways to help poor souls as mine.

Before I join NSE (February last year) I have lost more than 70million Naira in doing different businesses in Nigeria.

But God’s name be praised I have re-equip all my money back with intrest on top.

You must be the #1 contender for the most improved n'lander award

crazyT:


If I am a white man you’ll surely see me blushing  , I know you are pulling my legs and for the guru of the guru’s to say this about my unconventional methods means a lot.

But on the other hand it shows how God really do use unconventional ways to help poor souls as mine.

Before I join NSE (February last year) I have lost more than 70million Naira in doing different businesses in Nigeria.

But God’s name be praised I have re-equip all my money back with intrest on top.

 

You na correct risk taker oh. You don miss N70m finish.
You con still enter were money dey MISS PASS (NSE)

oooookkkkk. Here's the analysis on MTN I promised _{una go pay me oh, 'cos I put in time to do this}  


From my perspective, MTN is a good deal for the following reasons:

1. With regard to the company’s market, there is a lot of growth potential there. Apart from the mobile network coverage which they’ve been growing substantially, they’re also branching out into fixed wireless telecoms. In 2006 they acquired VGC (a PTO), which gives them a foothold in the corporate market. The most exciting part of that acquisition to me is the domestic VSAT and international gateway licenses. With all of the banks and other companies doing their branch expansion, most of them use VSAT to interconnect their branches _{(I’m no techie here, but I did look up wikipedia for some of these stuff).} VSAT is the same technology used to transmit narrowband data for POS transactions such as credit cards, and broadband data for the provision of Satellite Internet access to remote locations, VoIP _{(remember skype??)} or video _{(think video conferencing, etc).} So as more and more banks roll out their credit / debit cards and ATMs and also expand branches, they’ll be making more and more demand on this technology, which I hear is amongst the most efficient. The fact that the company also has international gateway licenses means that they can carry voice and data internationally. So I can imagine that MTN will be top choice for companies demanding such services, esp. if those companies are looking to expand internationally. Also, don’t forget that with the international gateway license, MTN can also carry voice and data for other PTOs (Private Telecom Operators) who hitherto used to depend on NITEL [sub[i]](sorry Transcorp investors), [/i] [/sub] especially if they can do so at a cheaper rate. The VGC acquisition was definitely a very smart move on MTN’s part. The only word I can use to describe the market potential here is HUGE!!!! Mind you, banks are not the only potential users of this technology. Any company that operates in more than one location and needs to have all those locations talking to one another electronically will be needing this technology. SSSWEEEETTTT!!!!
2. The company acquired a license for 3G services sometime in March or April 2007. With this, they can provide voice, video, multimedia, web browsing, video streaming and surveillance and broadband services amongst others. I mean, just thinking about the broadband services alone, and I’m like whao   ! You only need to experience broadband connectivity, and it’ll be a matter of minutes before the dial-up gets thrown out. Potential market would be both individuals and corporates. From the looks of things, MTN has started working intensely on infrastructure to roll out this service. They recently raised a $2billion loan facility _{(which by the way was over 200% subscribed by banks – I mean, who no like beta tin ),} and so far, it looks like they’re the only operator investing sums of that magnitude since the acquisition of the 3G license (heard Glo is doing something, but haven’t seen much in the papers – perhaps they’re doing theirs without as much pump . . ._{sorry Pumping, no intention to use  your name  )}
3. From a valuation perspective, this company is cheap! I mean, who makes EBITDA margins of over 50%?? . This company is a cash cow! They definitely know how to use leverage to maximize returns to shareholders. Return on Equity consistently over 40% (even as high as 84% in ’04) and return on assets consistently over 20%. I’m like   . And yet PAT margins are still growing! The fascinating thing about these guys is that despite all of the growth, they’ve been able to keep costs under control. I LIKE THAT!!!. What this tells me is that most of the future topline growth (which is virtually certain) will find it’s way to the bottomline. Based on my analysis, projected P/E for 2007 is about 11 (projected EPS of N260.6 at a price of $24.56), which is cheap considering the multiples we’re seeing for other companies on the NSE _{(which is what I would consider as alternative investment outlets for now).} Projected P/E for 2011 is less than 3.5 – and this assumes a 50% EPS growth rate for the 3years until 2011. Considering the growth potential this company has, _{(I mean, market penetration for mobile phones is still less than 30% in Nigeria. Subscriber base is projected to increase to 52million by 2011, which is less than half of the country’s population, and I believe MTN will have a substantial if not majority share of that. Add to that the market for their vsat and internet services . . . think BROADBAND!! )} I believe the growth rate I’ve assumed is extremely conservative. A P/E of less than 3.5 is extremely cheap, going by the multiples on major stock exchanges around the world. Granted, we’re not sure on which exchange the shares of the exit SPV will be listed, but with a P/E like that one, you can be sure of significant capital appreciation on any major stockexchange, especially for a company like MTN _{(by the way, did I mention that MTNI is a staple stock in the international portfolio of several of the big portfolio managers here in the US – I’m talking investment management shops like Fidelity and Co.)} operating in a sector like Telecoms, which enjoys huge investor sentiment around the globe – they had to turn down banks wanting to lend them money for crying out loud!!! And did anyone notice that IFC refused to sell out any of its stake to make room for investment by Nigerian investors??. These guys aren’t issuing new shares, which is something they very easily have done to raise money. And I can bet that if they had decided to issue new shares, there would have been massive oversubscription. But NO, they decided to go get a loan instead – kinda like keeping the loot in the family innit? I LIKE THEM!!  

Dividend yield from my calculation is about 13% gross on an annual basis. Considering the yield you would get on a fixed deposit in a good bank, I’ld say this yield isn’t bad. Besides, how many stocks on major exchanges around the world offer such yields?? And when you factor in the potential capital appreciation at the end of the waiting period, hmmmm . . . _{I’ld leave you to complete the statement.}

BOTTOMLINE: This company has a really good (almost essential) product in a market with astronomical growth rates. It also has a solid management team that seems to have its strategy together. It’s an innovative company with very clear foresight. I like their marketing strategy and the partnerships they’re forming. I also like the fact that they’re using debt to significantly enhance returns to equity holders _{look at those debt/EBITDA margins, they’ve dropped from over 71% to about 40% and yet debt has increased}. I especially like the fact that they’re good on the cost management thing. If you’re into long term investing, this is one really good deal.

@Wanaj0, I read the article(s) about GLO surpassing MTN in subscriber numbers. I won’t say I’m too worried by that as there’s no evidence that MTN actually lost market share. Infact, the number of subscribers increased during that period. Plus since then, they’ve acquired a $2billion loan and have started investing heavily in infrastructure to expand their network. I hear they’re moving rapidly into the hinterlands (outside of the major cities like Lagos, PH and Abuja). The good thing is that now they can offer more services with their 3G license -- they can bundle the other services (like multimedia, web browsing and video streaming) with their mobile phone services in targeting new customers in those areas. The expansion is properly timed in my opinion! Let’s wait for numbers that will come out in Q2 of this year and you might be hearing a different story as per subscriber base between MTN and GLO.

@Pumping777: I was on board that PHB flight oh! But I got off yesterday at maximum comfort level to take advantage of some insurance opportunities capable of flying at higher altitudes than that which the fuel left in that PHB plane can allow it go. Make you land the plane safely oh . . .

@Roughcut: size doesn’t matter huh? I’m guessing the saying doesn’t apply to the wallet or pocket or purse size right?

By the way, did anyone catch PRESCO at N14 last week? I saw it and I was like WOW!!!   Kia, I called my broker and the deal was done, sealed and delivered  . At that price, the company had the highest dividend yield on the exchange!

Laters!

easimoni:

It's really much shorter than that. Lots of charts and tables at the end. The koko is; they expect M&As as the banks struggle for #1; the mid-tiers will not catch up to the top-tiers despite the impressive run of late; they are all looking for ways to hand out consumer loans; they all have the same strategies for growth.

As Wanaj0 said, the number have changed a little but it makes for good reading. Small yabis dey for Aig and Access bank too. Read in-between the lines.

I enjoyed the analysis on M&A most though I don't agree with the conclusion. I don't see us having only 15 banks. 20 is more like it. M & A will be difficult except it is forced. You can see the smaller ones doing all within their power to remain relevant. If not that Atedo sold out, no way the IBTC/Stanbic merger would have gone ahead. I see First Inland and Spring following Sterling in the mergers. The others will likely weather the storm.

All the same, nice reaserach report. One reason why I prefer Afrinvest.

@crazyT
as from today i will watch out for penny stocks that hav "OIL" attached to them sha.congrats once again, my brother

windywendy:

oooookkkkk. Here's the analysis on MTN I promised _{una go pay me oh, 'because I put in time to do this}  


From my perspective, MTN is a good deal for the following reasons:

1. With regard to the company’s market, there is a lot of growth potential there. Apart from the mobile network coverage which they’ve been growing substantially, they’re also branching out into fixed wireless telecoms. In 2006 they acquired VGC (a PTO), which gives them a foothold in the corporate market. The most exciting part of that acquisition to me is the domestic VSAT and international gateway licenses. With all of the banks and other companies doing their branch expansion, most of them use VSAT to interconnect their branches _{(I’m no techie here, but I did look up wikipedia for some of these stuff).} VSAT is the same technology used to transmit narrowband data for POS transactions such as credit cards, and broadband data for the provision of Satellite Internet access to remote locations, VoIP _{(remember skype??)} or video _{(think video conferencing, etc).} So as more and more banks roll out their credit / debit cards and ATMs and also expand branches, they’ll be making more and more demand on this technology, which I hear is amongst the most efficient. The fact that the company also has international gateway licenses means that they can carry voice and data internationally. So I can imagine that MTN will be top choice for companies demanding such services, esp. if those companies are looking to expand internationally. Also, don’t forget that with the international gateway license, MTN can also carry voice and data for other PTOs (Private Telecom Operators) who hitherto used to depend on NITEL [sub[i]](sorry Transcorp investors), [/i] [/sub] especially if they can do so at a cheaper rate. The VGC acquisition was definitely a very smart move on MTN’s part. The only word I can use to describe the market potential here is HUGE!!!! Mind you, banks are not the only potential users of this technology. Any company that operates in more than one location and needs to have all those locations talking to one another electronically will be needing this technology. SSSWEEEETTTT!!!!
2. The company acquired a license for 3G services sometime in March or April 2007. With this, they can provide voice, video, multimedia, web browsing, video streaming and surveillance and broadband services amongst others. I mean, just thinking about the broadband services alone, and I’m like whao   ! You only need to experience broadband connectivity, and it’ll be a matter of minutes before the dial-up gets thrown out. Potential market would be both individuals and corporates. From the looks of things, MTN has started working intensely on infrastructure to roll out this service. They recently raised a $2billion loan facility _{(which by the way was over 200% subscribed by banks – I mean, who no like beta tin ),} and so far, it looks like they’re the only operator investing sums of that magnitude since the acquisition of the 3G license (heard Glo is doing something, but haven’t seen much in the papers – perhaps they’re doing theirs without as much pump . . ._{sorry Pumping, no intention to use  your name  )}
3. From a valuation perspective, this company is cheap! I mean, who makes EBITDA margins of over 50%?? . This company is a cash cow! They definitely know how to use leverage to maximize returns to shareholders. Return on Equity consistently over 40% (even as high as 84% in ’04) and return on assets consistently over 20%. I’m like   . And yet PAT margins are still growing! The fascinating thing about these guys is that despite all of the growth, they’ve been able to keep costs under control. I LIKE THAT!!!. What this tells me is that most of the future topline growth (which is virtually certain) will find it’s way to the bottomline. Based on my analysis, projected P/E for 2007 is about 11 (projected EPS of N260.6 at a price of $24.56), which is cheap considering the multiples we’re seeing for other companies on the NSE _{(which is what I would consider as alternative investment outlets for now).} Projected P/E for 2011 is less than 3.5 – and this assumes a 50% EPS growth rate for the 3years until 2011. Considering the growth potential this company has, _{(I mean, market penetration for mobile phones is still less than 30% in Nigeria. Subscriber base is projected to increase to 52million by 2011, which is less than half of the country’s population, and I believe MTN will have a substantial if not majority share of that. Add to that the market for their vsat and internet services . . . think BROADBAND!! )} I believe the growth rate I’ve assumed is extremely conservative. A P/E of less than 3.5 is extremely cheap, going by the multiples on major stock exchanges around the world. Granted, we’re not sure on which exchange the shares of the exit SPV will be listed, but with a P/E like that one, you can be sure of significant capital appreciation on any major stockexchange, especially for a company like MTN _{(by the way, did I mention that MTNI is a staple stock in the international portfolio of several of the big portfolio managers here in the US – I’m talking investment management shops like Fidelity and Co.)} operating in a sector like Telecoms, which enjoys huge investor sentiment around the globe – they had to turn down banks wanting to lend them money for crying out loud!!! And did anyone notice that IFC refused to sell out any of its stake to make room for investment by Nigerian investors??. These guys aren’t issuing new shares, which is something they very easily have done to raise money. And I can bet that if they had decided to issue new shares, there would have been massive oversubscription. But NO, they decided to go get a loan instead – kind of like keeping the loot in the family innit? I LIKE THEM!!  

Dividend yield from my calculation is about 13% gross on an annual basis. Considering the yield you would get on a fixed deposit in a good bank, I’ld say this yield isn’t bad. Besides, how many stocks on major exchanges around the world offer such yields?? And when you factor in the potential capital appreciation at the end of the waiting period, hmmmm . . . _{I’ld leave you to complete the statement.}

BOTTOMLINE: This company has a really good (almost essential) product in a market with astronomical growth rates. It also has a solid management team that seems to have its strategy together. It’s an innovative company with very clear foresight. I like their marketing strategy and the partnerships they’re forming. I also like the fact that they’re using debt to significantly enhance returns to equity holders _{look at those debt/EBITDA margins, they’ve dropped from over 71% to about 40% and yet debt has increased}. I especially like the fact that they’re good on the cost management thing. If you’re into long term investing, this is one really good deal.

@Wanaj0, I read the article(s) about GLO surpassing MTN in subscriber numbers. I won’t say I’m too worried by that as there’s no evidence that MTN actually lost market share. Infact, the number of subscribers increased during that period. Plus since then, they’ve acquired a $2billion loan and have started investing heavily in infrastructure to expand their network. I hear they’re moving rapidly into the hinterlands (outside of the major cities like Lagos, PH and Abuja). The good thing is that now they can offer more services with their 3G license -- they can bundle the other services (like multimedia, web browsing and video streaming) with their mobile phone services in targeting new customers in those areas. The expansion is properly timed in my opinion! Let’s wait for numbers that will come out in Q2 of this year and you might be hearing a different story as per subscriber base between MTN and GLO.

@Pumping777: I was on board that PHB flight oh! But I got off yesterday at maximum comfort level to take advantage of some insurance opportunities capable of flying at higher altitudes than that which the fuel left in that PHB plane can allow it go. Make you land the plane safely oh . . .

@Roughcut: size doesn’t matter huh? I’m guessing the saying doesn’t apply to the wallet or pocket or purse size right?

By the way, did anyone catch PRESCO at N14 last week? I saw it and I was like WOW!!!   Kia, I called my broker and the deal was done, sealed and delivered  . At that price, the company had the highest dividend yield on the exchange!

Laters!

Haba! u  too much oga ju!

windywendy, nice write up except that you did not talk about the risks. Currency risk is a major one hear.

well, before we start the analysis paralysis, my broker sent a mail asking whether I am still interested in the MTN offer and I was like, what else should I be interested in? I mean very few stocks are that cheap especially for a TESTED company (unlike CHAMS)

Downside is that MTN is not growing as fast as Glo, they are also loosing market share. Quality of the network is dwindling and people are getting frustrated with their service. Put in another way, GLO is now the prefered choice. Most corporate organisations are actually linking up to GLO. Remember GLO launched balckberry before MTN, started per second billing and is seeing to be more friendly and 'patriotic'. Big organisations are actually entering into partnership with GLO. One of the multinational oil companies operating in Nigeria just did that. So, the management need to really step up.

That said, the offer is a good offer that those with LONG term view should not miss. It may be a quiet ride for the 3 years but after then, there will hardly be space left for new joiners. The dividend yield alone is massive.

wanaj0:

windywendy, nice write up except that you did not talk about the risks. Currency risk is a major one hear.

well, before we start the analysis paralysis, my broker sent a mail asking whether I am still interested in the MTN offer and I was like, what else should I be interested in? I mean very few stocks are that cheap especially for a TESTED company (unlike CHAMS)

Downside is that MTN is not growing as fast as Glo, they are also loosing market share. Quality of the network is dwindling and people are getting frustrated with their service. Put in another way, GLO is now the prefered choice. Most corporate organisations are actually linking up to GLO. Remember GLO launched balckberry before MTN, started per second billing and is seeing to be more friendly and 'patriotic'. Big organisations are actually entering into partnership with GLO. One of the multinational oil companies operating in Nigeria just did that. So, the management need to really step up.

That said, the offer is a good offer that those with LONG term view should not miss. It may be a quiet ride for the 3 years but after then, there will hardly be space left for new joiners. The dividend yield alone is massive.

But this is for deep pockets like yourself, roughcut, crazyT, fatherof2, pumping, windywendy and easimoni.

For some of us toodlers, all our money for NSE no fit buy 500 units of that offer - so we will skip.

However sha ooo - the young shall grow

wanaj0:

windywendy, nice write up except that you did not talk about the risks. Currency risk is a major one hear.

well, before we start the analysis paralysis, my broker sent a mail asking whether I am still interested in the MTN offer and I was like, what else should I be interested in? I mean very few stocks are that cheap especially for a TESTED company (unlike CHAMS)

Downside is that MTN is not growing as fast as Glo, they are also loosing market share. Quality of the network is dwindling and people are getting frustrated with their service. Put in another way, GLO is now the prefered choice. Most corporate organisations are actually linking up to GLO. Remember GLO launched balckberry before MTN, started per second billing and is seeing to be more friendly and 'patriotic'. Big organisations are actually entering into partnership with GLO. One of the multinational oil companies operating in Nigeria just did that. So, the management need to really step up.

That said, the offer is a good offer that those with LONG term view should not miss. It may be a quiet ride for the 3 years but after then, there will hardly be space left for new joiners. The dividend yield alone is massive.

Like I said, just wait for the subscriber numbers that will come out in Q2 or Q3 this year and we'll see if GLO is still the fastest. From what I've been reading in the papers and hearing from some other sources, these MTN guys are ramping up seriously. Let's wait and see .

By the way, can you enlighten me more on the currency risk you mentioned? As I understand, dividend payments are in naira. perhaps there's something i'm missing here?

eniyanman:

All their competitors face the same currency risk. However, since the naira is appreciating relative to the dollar, this is actually good for MTN Nigeria. If I recall properly, their naira cost base isn't as high as their dollar cost base.

oh ok I see what you're saying. If it's a case of currency risk as regards their cost base, I have no problem there. These guys have proven their ability to keep costs under control. Just check out their profit margins and how consistent they've been at maintaining it despite all of their growth. Amazing! Infact I hear they do all of their procurement centrally (across all MTN operations worldwide) in order to keep costs down. So no big issues there for me at all!

http://allafrica.com/stories/200801220718.html

Leadership (Abuja)
22 January 2008
Posted to the web 22 January 2008
Yakeen Nurudeen

Even as the move by the National Communication Commission, NCC to licence more investors to roll out their services in the mobile telecommunication industry, has been seen by many Nigerians as a welcome development towards providing quality service delivery, others see it as an attempt to compound the already troubled sector. Yekeen Nurudeen x-rays the prospects and challenges of this move.

With all its attendant benefits and opportunities, many Nigerians dispassionately admit that one of the unforgettable legacies of the last administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo was the introduction of the Global System of Mobile Telecommunication, otherwise known as GSM. Since 2001 when operating licence was granted to the then Econet Nigeria Limited, now Celtel wireless, MTN Nigeria Limited, and later to the Globacom, the first and only indigenous mobile telecommunication operator, telecommunication system and business have grown in leaps and bounds.


Even when the duo of Econet and MTN were the major competitors in the business, Nigerians were made to pay through their nose to acquire mobile phones and lines. Yet, they were willing to pay more for the services due to barriers that the arrival of the system was able to surmount. Then, it was an apparent case of day light exploitation of subscribers as alleged by many Nigerians, until the Nigerian Communication Commission, NCC granted Glo Mobile the licence to operate as the third GSM service provider. Although Mtel, a sister company of the moribund Nigerian Telecommunication Company, NITEL came into existence before Glo, it was merely a paper tiger in the business.

In the analysis of some subscribers and telecommunication business experts, the arrival of Glo Mobile broke the ranks of the earlier comers, MTN and Econet, who were apparently taking much from the subscribers in terms of tariffs charged for their services without commensurate quality services and value added. They argued that both MTN and Econet, now Celtel would have milked dry Nigerians who were in desperate need for the new technology were it not for the introduction of per second billing system introduced by the Glomobile. That singular action by the alternative service provider in the guise of Glomobile did not only force the two GSM giants to review their billing systems but were also made to be more alive to their responsibilities to the subscribers.

They have since introduced series of services and offers that have provided subscribers with many alternatives and bonuses for their money. While their services have aided business transactions tremendously and have also made life a lot easier, the Nigerian Communication Commission, NCC, which is the nation's sole regulator of the telecommunication is no doubt confounded by what it described as the poor services delivery of the GSM providers. The NCC, under the leadership of its Executive Vice Chairman/Chief Executive, Mr. Ernest Ndukwe has been at the forefront of campaign to make subscribers get services from GSM service providers that measure up to their money.

The latest effort of the NCC to grant licence to more companies to start GSM operation in the country this year. The move is a further reaction, according to the NCC boss, to the deplorable GSM services the current operators are rendering to the consumers of telephone services. He emphatically said that more operators in the nation's GSM industry will increase competiton and translate to better value and choice for the consumer. "2008 will be a good year for telecoms in Nigeria," he said.

While this is seen as a welcome development at widening the nation's telecoms industry, and making Nigerians whose money are being used by telecoms operators to expand their businesses to have value for such money. It could also mean a double - edged blessings for Nigerians who have always been victims of exploitative tendencies of the GSM service providers and their poor service delivery, argued some experts.

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Those who view this attempt at registering more operators by NCC to roll out their services as a positive move, opine that consumers of telephone services would now have competing alternatives beyond three or four that are presently available to them, and that would invariably compel those who have been in the business earlier to strive to maintain their market dominance by improving on their services and give their subscribers value for their money. "None of them could claim to be indispensable when there are many others that are out with better services and perhaps at cheaper rate." One GSM subscriber who gave his name as Ganiyu Kamorudeen said.

IN the analysis of those who share this view, MTN, Celtel and Glo would be forced to review their billing systems than they have done recently and would equally be intimidated to invest their huge proceeds on acquiring facilities to expand their services towards quality service delivery. They added optimistically that some of these providers may be forced to learn how to give back to the society what they have taken through more open and transparent social responsibility programmes, than are being done at the moment.

There are however fears being expressed in some quarters as to how the NCC would regulate a barrage of more than five GSM operators, given its predicament at the moment to make the three or four current GSM service providers to comply with its directive about improving upon their services. If words of Mr. Ernest Ndukwe are anything to go by concerning how it has been an Herculean task to make GSM operators to be alive to their responsibilities to consumers, many begin to wonder what service improvement and quality delivery can be expected from the newly licenced operators.

FatherOF2:

You na correct risk taker oh. You don miss N70m finish.
You con still enter were money dey MISS PASS (NSE)

How you think say I take get my name? Normal sane man no dey take big risk now 

blueband:

http://allafrica.com/stories/200801220718.html

Leadership (Abuja)
22 January 2008
Posted to the web 22 January 2008
Yakeen Nurudeen

Even as the move by the National Communication Commission, NCC to licence more investors to roll out their services in the mobile telecommunication industry, has been seen by many Nigerians as a welcome development towards providing quality service delivery, others see it as an attempt to compound the already troubled sector. Yekeen Nurudeen x-rays the prospects and challenges of this move.

With all its attendant benefits and opportunities, many Nigerians dispassionately admit that one of the unforgettable legacies of the last administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo was the introduction of the Global System of Mobile Telecommunication, otherwise known as GSM. Since 2001 when operating licence was granted to the then Econet Nigeria Limited, now Celtel wireless, MTN Nigeria Limited, and later to the Globacom, the first and only indigenous mobile telecommunication operator, telecommunication system and business have grown in leaps and bounds.


Even when the duo of Econet and MTN were the major competitors in the business, Nigerians were made to pay through their nose to acquire mobile phones and lines. Yet, they were willing to pay more for the services due to barriers that the arrival of the system was able to surmount. Then, it was an apparent case of day light exploitation of subscribers as alleged by many Nigerians, until the Nigerian Communication Commission, NCC granted Glo Mobile the licence to operate as the third GSM service provider. Although Mtel, a sister company of the moribund Nigerian Telecommunication Company, NITEL came into existence before Glo, it was merely a paper tiger in the business.

In the analysis of some subscribers and telecommunication business experts, the arrival of Glo Mobile broke the ranks of the earlier comers, MTN and Econet, who were apparently taking much from the subscribers in terms of tariffs charged for their services without commensurate quality services and value added. They argued that both MTN and Econet, now Celtel would have milked dry Nigerians who were in desperate need for the new technology were it not for the introduction of per second billing system introduced by the Glomobile. That singular action by the alternative service provider in the guise of Glomobile did not only force the two GSM giants to review their billing systems but were also made to be more alive to their responsibilities to the subscribers.

They have since introduced series of services and offers that have provided subscribers with many alternatives and bonuses for their money. While their services have aided business transactions tremendously and have also made life a lot easier, the Nigerian Communication Commission, NCC, which is the nation's sole regulator of the telecommunication is no doubt confounded by what it described as the poor services delivery of the GSM providers. The NCC, under the leadership of its Executive Vice Chairman/Chief Executive, Mr. Ernest Ndukwe has been at the forefront of campaign to make subscribers get services from GSM service providers that measure up to their money.

The latest effort of the NCC to grant licence to more companies to start GSM operation in the country this year. The move is a further reaction, according to the NCC boss, to the deplorable GSM services the current operators are rendering to the consumers of telephone services. He emphatically said that more operators in the nation's GSM industry will increase competiton and translate to better value and choice for the consumer. "2008 will be a good year for telecoms in Nigeria," he said.

While this is seen as a welcome development at widening the nation's telecoms industry, and making Nigerians whose money are being used by telecoms operators to expand their businesses to have value for such money. It could also mean a double - edged blessings for Nigerians who have always been victims of exploitative tendencies of the GSM service providers and their poor service delivery, argued some experts.

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Those who view this attempt at registering more operators by NCC to roll out their services as a positive move, opine that consumers of telephone services would now have competing alternatives beyond three or four that are presently available to them, and that would invariably compel those who have been in the business earlier to strive to maintain their market dominance by improving on their services and give their subscribers value for their money. "None of them could claim to be indispensable when there are many others that are out with better services and perhaps at cheaper rate." One GSM subscriber who gave his name as Ganiyu Kamorudeen said.

IN the analysis of those who share this view, MTN, Celtel and Glo would be forced to review their billing systems than they have done recently and would equally be intimidated to invest their huge proceeds on acquiring facilities to expand their services towards quality service delivery. They added optimistically that some of these providers may be forced to learn how to give back to the society what they have taken through more open and transparent social responsibility programmes, than are being done at the moment.

There are however fears being expressed in some quarters as to how the NCC would regulate a barrage of more than five GSM operators, given its predicament at the moment to make the three or four current GSM service providers to comply with its directive about improving upon their services. If words of Mr. Ernest Ndukwe are anything to go by concerning how it has been an Herculean task to make GSM operators to be alive to their responsibilities to consumers, many begin to wonder what service improvement and quality delivery can be expected from the newly licenced operators.

Hmmmm, interesting. So NCC is licensing newbies huh? Well, unless these newbies have seriously deep pockets, it would take them a while to catch up. From where I stand though, I don't see any of these newbies posing any real threat to the already existing oldies (MTN, GLO, VMOBILE, etc) over the next 3years. There are significant barriers to entry in this sector, the most of which is the sheer amount of capital commitment required to lay out all that infrastructure. This doesn't even consider the inherent switching costs involved in this business -- how many people would want to change their phone company, especially when there's no number portability?? _{Unless of course the phone company is just terribly terribly bad} . As always, let's wait and see . . . 

@easi,

help a brother out man with an updated version of the excel sheet on the NSE u have. u know the one with all the info on PAT, turnover, etc.
with all the goings on woth my son i haven't beena ble to update my own and don't currently have the time just now.

would appreciate it if anyone else could help.

just to update u'all, we had another blood test today. we believe for the best. thank u all for the support. i hope to be back to full form in the coming weeks by God's grace

windywendy:

oh ok I see what you're saying. If it's a case of currency risk as regards their cost base, I have no problem there. These guys have proven their ability to keep costs under control. Just check out their profit margins and how consistent they've been at maintaining it despite all of their growth. Amazing! Infact I hear they do all of their procurement centrally (across all MTN operations worldwide) in order to keep costs down. So no big issues there for me at all!

Wendy who is offering the MTN shares/

Is it  IBTC or Afriinvest?!

I am interested in picking some of it.

windywendy:

oh ok I see what you're saying. If it's a case of currency risk as regards their cost base, I have no problem there. These guys have proven their ability to keep costs under control. Just check out their profit margins and how consistent they've been at maintaining it despite all of their growth. Amazing! Infact I hear they do all of their procurement centrally (across all MTN operations worldwide) in order to keep costs down. So no big issues there for me at all!

Naaaaaaaaaa.

Its is those using Naira to pay for the stocks in dollars. If the Naira apprecaites, by the time the conversion of the dollar denominated fund is made to Naira, you may not be making as much gain due to the change in exchange rate. This is from the point of view of investors. For MTN, it is in their benefit since they earn

As per numbers, during Christmas, Glo was allow to do a promo while MTN was not allowed to due to congestion on their network. I am also aware of some deals that Glo entered to with some corporate organisations thus creating another income stream.

Going forward, with competition, margins will reduced compounded by the end of tax holiday.

dollyp1cute:

Wendy who is offering the MTN shares/

Is it IBTC or Afriinvest?!

I am interested in picking some of it.

Both. I believe you can contact them for details.

@fatherof2,wanajo,pumping,aktopgun,
oga miiiiiiis, i was offered AAICO @ 4.70 today.do u think its worth it,how far can it go.kindly help.

wanaj0:

Naaaaaaaaaa.

Its is those using Naira to pay for the stocks in dollars. If the Naira apprecaites, by the time the conversion of the dollar denominated fund is made to Naira, you may not be making as much gain due to the change in exchange rate. This is from the point of view of investors. For MTN, it is in their benefit since they earn

As per numbers, during Christmas, Glo was allow to do a promo while MTN was not allowed to due to congestion on their network. I am also aware of some deals that Glo entered to with some corporate organisations thus creating another income stream.

Going forward, with competition, margins will reduced compounded by the end of tax holiday.  

But wait o, the brokers are collecting naira. Of course the shares are quoted in dollars but subscribers are required to pay in naira. Dividends are also in naira. I'm still not understanding the exchange risk you're talking about. Or are you referring to the exit SPV which may be quoted in USD? Please elaborate more.

Yes, I agree with you that going forward, margins will be reduced, which is why my assumed growth rate over the next 3years was 50%. With MTN's acquisition of VGC, they've made a headway into the corporate market which is obviously a higher margin sector. Can you just even begin to imagine the potential of that market especially with all of these companies doing branch expansion (banks esp.)?? Even tantalizers is talking of deploying technology   Who do you think is going to be carrying all that voice and data, if these companies decide to go with vsat which is amongst the cheapest technology useful for the purpose of interconnecting branches? The possibilities here are huge my brother! We're not even talking of broadband internet connectivity yet . . .

windywendy:

Hmmmm, interesting. So NCC is licensing newbies huh? Well, unless these newbies have seriously deep pockets, it would take them a while to catch up. From where I stand though, I don't see any of these newbies posing any real threat to the already existing oldies (MTN, GLO, VMOBILE, etc) over the next 3years. There are significant barriers to entry in this sector, the most of which is the sheer amount of capital commitment required to lay out all that infrastructure. This doesn't even consider the inherent switching costs involved in this business -- how many people would want to change their phone company, especially when there's no number portability?? _{Unless of course the phone company is just terribly terribly bad} . As always, let's wait and see . . .  

Dangote, Mubdala and Jim Ovia all got licenses. I know Jim is planning to come out in March or thereabout. Mubdala are also getting set. They all have DEEP pockets. The competition will not be on voice but data. That's where teh greatest growth is right now. So, it will not be business as usual. Same way GLO changed the landscape, the new entrants will surely raise the barrier.

upward:

@kpineo, & NBA,
Please guys, how can I subscribe to be receiving the bid/offer positions of shares daily

@upward
I opened a Stockbroking account with them and they send it to clients.

windywendy:

Both. I believe you can contact them for details.

THANKS