wanaj0:

Dangote, Mubdala and Jim Ovia all got licenses. I know Jim is planning to come out in March or thereabout. Mubdala are also getting set. They all have DEEP pockets. The competition will not be on voice but data. That's where the greatest growth is right now. So, it will not be business as usual. Same way GLO changed the landscape, the new entrants will surely raise the barrier.

True, true. However I'm not worried for MTN. Abi what do you think they're doing with the $2b they raised in Oct. 2007? How many of these other companies you've mentioned have built their own international gateways or laid down their own fibre optic cable networks? They're just starting out so I believe they'll have to play catch up before anything significant begins to happen.

windywendy:

But wait o, the brokers are collecting naira. Of course the shares are quoted in dollars but subscribers are required to pay in naira. Dividends are also in naira. I'm still not understanding the exchange risk you're talking about. Or are you referring to the exit SPV which may be quoted in USD? Please elaborate more.

Yes, I agree with you that going forward, margins will be reduced, which is why my assumed growth rate over the next 3years was 50%. With MTN's acquisition of VGC, they've made a headway into the corporate market which is obviously a higher margin sector. Can you just even begin to imagine the potential of that market especially with all of these companies doing branch expansion (banks esp.)?? Even tantalizers is talking of deploying technology   Who do you think is going to be carrying all that voice and data, if these companies decide to go with vsat which is amongst the cheapest technology useful for the purpose of interconnecting branches? The possibilities here are huge my brother! We're not even talking of broadband internet connectivity yet . . .

Don't get m wrong, MTN is a BUY. Just trying to highlight the things that is not making it as SWEET as I would have loved it to be.

Yes, they are collecting Naira from you but the trasanction is in US$. Let's assume at you paid N1.25m to gt one unit @ $10,000. Let's assume that by some magic, exchange rate now become N100 to $1.00 and you wnat to exit. Excluding capital appreciation, your N1.25m investment is now only N1.0m. That's the currency risk for the investor. With US$ falling against major currencies and Soludo bent on Naira appreciation, this is a posible scenario.

There are other new entrants that will give MTN a run for their money. Yes, VGC acquisition is good but that is not enough to drive away the competition.

Note also that they will start to service the $2bn loan so interest on loan will start to eat into the profit unlike in previous years when the loan portfolio was minimal.

As per competition, a lot depend on strategy and your Unique Selling point. Glo played catch up. Came up with per second billing and that was it. If the otehr competitors can break into the data market then it is MTN and co that will be playing catch up.

I also read of a plan by the new entrants to enter into a lease agreement with existing operators for use of their equipment just to reduce the start-up time. You can however see that with competition, there will be reduction in margins but still good enough for us to issue a cheque for the offer.

NBA:

@upward
I opened a Stockbroking account with them and they send it to clients.

Thanks a lot. since I'm not a client, nothing for me. So pls can you in your usual kindness upload the daily stick bid/offer positions for today

wanaj0:

Don't get m wrong, MTN is a BUY. Just trying to highlight the things that is not making it as SWEET as I would have loved it to be.

Yes, they are collecting Naira from you but the trasanction is in US$. Let's assume at you paid N1.25m to gt one unit @ $10,000. Let's assume that by some magic, exchange rate now become N100 to $1.00 and you wnat to exit. Excluding capital appreciation, your N1.25m investment is now only N1.0m. That's the currency risk for the investor. With US$ falling against major currencies and Soludo bent on Naira appreciation, this is a posible scenario.

There are other new entrants that will give MTN a run for their money. Yes, VGC acquisition is good but that is not enough to drive away the competition.

Note also that they will start to service the $2bn loan so interest on loan will start to eat into the profit unlike in previous years when the loan portfolio was minimal.

As per competition, a lot depend on strategy and your Unique Selling point. Glo played catch up. Came up with per second billing and that was it. If the otehr competitors can break into the data market then it is MTN and co that will be playing catch up.

I also read of a plan by the new entrants to enter into a lease agreement with existing operators for use of their equipment just to reduce the start-up time. You can however see that with competition, there will be reduction in margins but still good enough for us to issue a cheque for the offer.

I SERIOUSLY doubt that the bolded portion above will happen, at least not within the next 3years, which is my investment horizon.

GLO entered the market at a time when penetration was very low -- i.e. not too many subscribers had signed up with GSM companies. Therefore they could still capture a good chunk of the market by using a simple marketing strategy. Penetration has since increased, and I hear it will increase to about 44% by year end 2008. It will be more difficult for newbies to accomplish the feat that GLO accomplished at the time. Remember, switching costs are quite significant for customers in this business, esp. with those lease agreements they sign . . .

wanaj0:


Yes, they are collecting Naira from you but the trasanction is in US$. Let's assume at you paid N1.25m to gt one unit @ $10,000. Let's assume that by some magic, exchange rate now become N100 to $1.00 and you wnat to exit. Excluding capital appreciation, your N1.25m investment is now only N1.0m. That's the currency risk for the investor. With US$ falling against major currencies and Soludo bent on Naira appreciation, this is a posible scenario.

Are you sure the shares of the exit SPV will be quoted in dollars? Might be quoted in naira you know, esp. if they choose to list on the NSE. Afterall it's MTN Nigeria we're talking about abi . . . Unless of course you're talking about those that will want to exit prior to the exit date. But then again, my understanding is that this is a closed end fund, which means that investors will be locked in for the first 3years. Or is Afrinvest doing its own differently?

crazyT:

@ ICONBULL

CRAZY T, please i been wan ask u .how did u know capoil wuld be moving up, there hav been no result till date. did any of the gurus gave the hint in previous post? i rejoice with u sha! my own go soon come


It’s very funny, but Capoil happen to be one of the first stocks I bought on NSE without any knowledge of how to pick fundamentally good stocks. I bought Afroil and Capoil almost the same time for two reasons
1. because they both carries OIL as part of there names. 2. Because they were cheap and as luck will have it they both appreciate about 3200% and 2600% respectively between 6 to 9 months.

I guess it was a welcome gift from NSE.

Further proof that [b]K[/b]eeping [b]I[/b]t [b]S[/b]hort and [b]S[/b]imple can be very rewarding

aktopgun:

just to update u'all, we had another blood test today. we believe for the best. thank u all for the support. i hope to be back to full form in the coming weeks by God's grace

Leave matter for matthias.

This work has been perfected in the fourth dimension - we are just waiting for manifestation here ke!.

For with God nothing shall be impossible - do not allow a single doubt to take hold in your mind! o tigbo mi!.

I said - start your victory dance- worship God for what he has done. You have asked chikena!. Praise him for answers already received. We just need to see it thats all and we we will.

He has already given us all that pertains to life and Godliness - na we suppose receive am and walk in it!

We believers here are standing with you and as for me I have said this year I am receiving Good news all around - I have started receiving it already and I am eagerly awaitiing your own.

@Wanaj0 - this na your speciality oo ; I believe you are also working behind the scene on this one. (you know wetin I mean ke)

My people!.

This is my year of action!!!!!small work - big results in Jesus.

I passed my exam ooo - one more leg to go.

Thank God

pumping777:


Further proof that [b]K[/b]eeping [b]I[/b]t [b]S[/b]hort and [b]S[/b]imple can be very rewarding

My dear,

sometimes, one cannot remove the unseen hand from our decisions albeit dumb/wise in retrospect.

One wise man said he consulted with God and received his guidance in all his investment decisions and he is yet to loose a dollar!!.

iconbull:

@fatherof2,wanajo,pumping,aktopgun,
oga miiiiiiis, i was offered AAICO @ 4.70 today.do u think its worth it,how far can it go.kindly help.

You must be a faithful long timer before you can buy AIICO @4.70
cos you have to take note that most of the people buying into it now are short timer
and 4.70 is 37% increase in present price, so most of the poeple in that jet will start geting out at 25% and many people will get out at 30% too dat will bring about up and down in the price which will give way to CICO.
Also if we wont to compair it wit others in the sector wen it was TS @ 3.43 in nov07 crusader was around #4, wapic @ 6.50 and prestige @ 6.50, which means AIICO may get to something like #7 to #8  in the next 5 to 6months, so if you know you can take the risk  na your money
that is my 1kobo advice

iconbull:

@fatherof2,wanajo,pumping,aktopgun,
oga miiiiiiis, i was offered AAICO @ 4.70 today.do u think its worth it,how far can it go.kindly help.

You must be a faithful long timer before you can buy AIICO @4.70
cos you have to take note that most of the people buying into it now are short timer
and 4.70 is 37% increase in present price, so most of the poeple in that jet will start geting out at 25% and many people will get out at 30% too dat will bring about up and down in the price which will give way to CICO.
Also if we wont to compair it wit others in the sector wen it was TS @ 3.43 in nov07 crusader was around #4, wapic @ 6.50 and prestige @ 6.50, which means AIICO may get to something like #7 to #8  in the next 5 to 6months, so if you know you can take the risk  na your money
that is my 1kobo advice

nairalanders,

anyone with today's bid/offer positions ?

@fatherof2,

I am a "Taliban-Investor" ready for some mercenary trading in your "CICO" school, what stock would you recommend for this weeks Thursday/Friday shopping at the NSE ? I have N1m cash balance in my Stock account to trade with. Your insight is highly appreciated.

NSE BID/OFFER Positon of selected stocks at close of trading on 22 January 2008

 Demand                              Supply
INTBREW 15.58m            FIRSTINLND    8.20m
AIICO 79.18m                 WEMABANK    23.96m
ECOBANK 12.02m           FOOTWEAR    0.148m
ACENINS 4.53m            
ZENITHBANK 17.16m            
CHEVRON 0.907m            
JAPAULOIL 11.69m            
SKYEBANK 4.99m            
CAPOIL 0.249m            
DEAPCAP 4.63m            
EQUITYASUR 53.47m            
JULI 1.48m            
COSTAIN 1.17m            
BIGTREAT 6.59m            
WAAP 1.00m            
WAGLASS 5.65m            
TRANSEXPR 1.83m            
NSLTECH 0.800m            
UNTL 4.78m

@kauskey
Thanks. you have been most helpful.

anyone with the numbers on Ikeja Hotel?

WAPIC

N'landers,
What's happening to WAPIC lately, could it be refuelling mid-air or what? It got to N11 last week and since then it has been wobbling.
I heard there is an offer coming up sometime, is it true? Anyone with info in the house? I want reliable before I offload as I have done about 35% on it already.
Thanks.

ebony9ja:

nairalanders,

anyone with today's bid/offer positions ?

see bid/offer updates at the bottom right hand corner at FUSL site: http://www.fidelityunionsecng.com/index.aspx

@all: which company is WAAP and what's making it close on high bid? I just asked my broker that question and he says "don't bother about it, it's a dead company". Why would a dead company be in such high demand . Anyone knows anything about this company? Pls share

Daily Stock position attached:

@ All

Pls do anyone have the list of Insurance companies likely to enter the market again in 08 for PO?

Thanks for all the insightful deliberations

http://www.businessdayonline.com/national/2475.html

Yahwah for Transcorp never seems to end.

@All

Anyone with insider info on the allotment for LBIC PP and AIICO PO?

Can somone kindly name companies coming in the next couple of months 4 IPO or PP?

Thanks dude.

DAT Tantalizer PP na sheru bawon.

windywendy:

@all: which company is WAAP and what's making it close on high bid? I just asked my broker that question and he says "don't bother about it, it's a dead company". Why would a dead company be in such high demand . Anyone knows anything about this company? Please share

WAAP is West Africa Aluminium Products PLC. It's a 2nd tier company so I have no more info to share w/ u.

yodiyokun:

anyone with the numbers on Ikeja Hotel?

Shares 1732M
FY PAT 2006 526M
Proj PAT FY 2007 843M; basis 3Q07 PAT = 632M
Trailing PE = 22.7 (courtesy FSDH)
Forward PE = 12.5
PEG = 0.38

Mr Easi,

Where do u get your information from relating to up - to date number of shares outstanding and past PAT/PBT?

@easimoni, wanajo, pumping, would you consider Ikeja hotels a buy at its above figures and current price?

@
gd evenin nairalanders, where is ololufemi?

Fatherof2 you don ignore me for long oo
I was told by my broker to do FCMB or oceanic for short term trade. I have some money to trade with. Which cuise shi i fit enter and at what price
easi,pumping,roughy, abeg how first bank and ikeja hotel.  are the current prices right for entry?

iconbull:

@
gd evenin nairalanders, where is ololufemi?

Ololufemi was last spotted at the bulk counting room of a big Nigerian bank, inspecting four cashiers busy counting his money, his loot from the NSE was too heavy they have been counting since over a week now. In fact more cash counters were bought specially for his pile of cash

Femtex:

Mr Easi,

Where do u get your information from relating to up - to date number of shares outstanding and past PAT/PBT?

I do a lot of scavenging. In the case of Ikeja Hotels, the PAT and outstanding shares (B4 the 2006 PO) were obtained from the prospectus (still on the Ikeja Hotels website) , the SEC website provided info on how many shares were actually sold during the PO. Add the two together and chikena!

invisible!:

@easimoni, wanajo, pumping, would you consider Ikeja hotels a buy at its above figures and current price?

I bought ~ N4 in Nov so I'm solid. My only grouse is that they appear to have "lost" money in the 4Q of 2006 (the 3Q was higher than the FY PAT), I'm hoping that does not happen this (past) FY. The stock seems to be catching-on  in nairaland. Hope the deep pockets create a good exit point for me. But to answer your question, yes it appears to be a solid buy with a 2007 FY PE of 12.5

kevyngbash:

easi,pumping,roughy, abeg how first bank and ikeja hotel. are the current prices right for entry?

I'm not a First Bank fan, just never liked the stock. The 9 month result is due (max) by val's day. May be enough to give the stock a much needed boost (apart from the Post-TS run, the stock has traded v v flat the last 12 months).